Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

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Reds have won 4 of last 5 series (beat STL, LAD, Red Sox, Cubs and lost to Milw) and catching plus money on a series price from the lowly Royals. Played +110 for a unit.
 
Marsski said:
Reds have won 4 of last 5 series (beat STL, LAD, Red Sox, Cubs and lost to Milw) and catching plus money on a series price from the lowly Royals. Played +110 for a unit.
Click to expand...
Royals have lost six in a row and nine of their last ten. Talk about a slump!
 
Marsski said:
Reds have won 4 of last 5 series (beat STL, LAD, Red Sox, Cubs and lost to Milw) and catching plus money on a series price from the lowly Royals. Played +110 for a unit.
Click to expand...

I’d think the fact they just faced waino would be helpful before seeing Greinke, not the same guys but the low velo shouldn’t catch them off guard. I don’t love weaver but kc offense struggling. Reds seem like right side tonight and for series.
 
Royals got a team ops of .512 the last 7 days. .630 the last month which only better than A’s and cubs! If weaver gonna have a good start you would think it be against these guys. Gotta think he could go 5+ Innings, Maybe 6, and not give up more than 2-3 at most.

It juicy at -160 to the over but reds Ff tt is 1.5? I feel like there a damn good chance reds score at least 2 off Greinke, he has stifled some teams (like cards, lol) but I think cincy be fine and I do think facing waino yesterday should be a benefit to them here. Kinda odd yesterday reds Ff total was 2.5 but only 3.5 for game, now today the Ff is 1.5 but 4.5 for game, not sure how to explain that? I don’t know much bout kc pen but I can’t imagine it much worse than cards? Yesterday it wouida been silly not to play full game over, tonight it seems silly not to play the Ff team total over!
 
Dunning ov 15.5 outs -110 a play for me. He only went 5 innings his last start vs laa but that was also his 1st game moving back into the starting rotation from pen. He was only at 72 pitches thru 5 innings with 2 hits, a walk, and no runs allowed, he coulda easily went deeper had he been stretched out! Since then he has went 5.2 or more in 4 of 5 starts! Last season in 5 starts vs laa he went 6+ in 3 of them, he got ran early a start at beginning last year but if you recall they had a short spring last year and most pitchers took several starts into the season to be themselves, I don’t read much into that. Then he went 3 straight of 6 innings or more till facing them his final start the season he was pulled after 5 innings with only 2 runs allowed and 8 k’s, he obviously wasn’t bad so it was just that one start at beginning last year, since then he has had 5 good starts vs laa where he exited after 5 innings in 2 but could have went deeper in both. I don’t think there be any reason for Boochy to pull him after 5 innings tonight assuming he once again pitching well vs laa. I really think the main reason they been hanging this number is due to him pitching out the pen in April. He should be a 16.5 or 17.5 out guy so I’m gonna keep playing him while there a discount.
 
Eflin was only at 82 pitches thru 6 innings against A’s in his second start of the season, he did allow 3 runs and punched out 7. Tonight they put his outs at 18.5 +145 to the over, that is certainly tempting, he could easily pitch 7 innings vs A’s tonight, +145 is super tempting. One concern would be A’s could turn him into a strike out pitcher which might up his pitch count, the thing is he throws strikes so I don’t think he gonna be taking 6-7-8 pitches to get a hitter like a lot of heavy k pitchers. His over 5.5 k’s -145 also seems good to me, I expect him to pitch at least 6 innings, probably more, in which case I think he will probably fan 6-7 again. Obviously the plus money is more tempting on the outs, he not quite a strikeout per inning guy so we probably need at least 6 innings to get the k’s, of course we need him to get a out in the 7th to cash the plus money on the outs. Against Oakland he could have the k’s before the 7th but I’d Obviously feel better about the k’s if he pitches 6+.

We cashed Teheran outs as he was able to go 7 innings in milw hitter friendly park during a’s road trip, I like Eflin more than Teheran and a’s back home in that big pitcher friendly park. Pitching in front of no fans shouldn’t be a huge shock to Eflin as they not exactly filling the park in tampa either! I think he worth a shot to pitch into the 7th with the plus money.
 
Only thing is Eflin hasn’t went past 6 innings in a road start this year, putting it into context he has made those starts mostly against better offenses and all in more hitter friendly parks, I really think he goes 7 innings tonight.
 
Wish they woulda came with a 17.5 out total on Webb, little worried they smartening up a bit as last few days seems like there been more guys I’d play at 17.5 being lined 18.5! Hopefully it just a blip and we do get that 15.5 on dunning tonight but my favorite 2 pitchers/matchups tonight they hung 18.5. I think it odd Eflin carrying more plus money than Webb, no chance I play Webb with Eflin getting 20 cents more against a lineup that at least a bit worse than cards! Lol. I do think Webb will be good tho, I don’t see much reason not to expect that? The problem is he not a huge k guy, he gets them but that isn’t his game and cards not a high k team so not interested playing over 5.5 k’s as he could have cards rolling over on pitches all night. I remember last year I played Webb ov 4.5 k’s In stl and he pitched a strong game where he went at least 6 innings (don’t recall if it was 6 or he went into 7th?) but he only punched out 1! I recall he had cards in numerous 0-2 holes and mostly got ground outs not strike outs! Ya’ll know how much that frustrates me!

I could absolutely see cards making a bunch of quick outs tonight. I fully expect Webb to go 6 or more innings and not allow more than a couple runs. How can ya trust Liberatore to match that? I don’t, despite @VirginiaCavs pointing out giants lineup should be a good matchup for Liberatore im still just not sold on this kid, he has a freaking 6.6 to 4.8 k:bb ratio per 9 innings! That is not what you see from guys you can trust to go 5+ innings without allowing runs regularly. His time in the bigs last season wasn’t a whole lot better, a extra k per 9 with bout same amount of walks. What is different his home runs are down this go around but as I said before last start I do not believe they gonna stay down, this the 1st time on any level since a ball he has allowed less than 1 hr per 9. His hr/fb rate is cut in half right now from his best at any level above a! It not gonna last! The walks will continue and there gonna be some bombs coming after walking guys on, it’s inevitable imo. Giants don’t have many bombs vs lhp so maybe he has another outing without the long ball but they coming. More the problem is I just don’t think Liberatore is capable of pitching efficiently enough to go more than 5 innings.

All that talk and I don’t see a play I like in this game. Woulda loved to see cards Ff total at 2.5, that wouida been a under for me but they have them at 1.5 without much juice to over, I’d say they expect Webb to be good also! I never really play the pitcher earned runs prop but Webb undsr 2.5 has some appeal. That the play I lean more than anything else, woulda loved cards team total to be 4.5 but they hung 3.5 which I think the right number. They might only score 3, they might score 4, I think it pretty likely to be right there, I don’t think the chances they score more than 4 is very good.
 
Anyone know who Phillies will have piggy backing strahm? He has went back to only throwing a inning or 2 even tho he still starting games. Hate when teams do this, even worse when I don’t know who the next guy In gonna be!!! Wouidnt shock me if snakes were able to get a run or 2 off him before he leaves but so tough to say with these openers As guys only get 1 crack at the pitcher who starts.
 
Sounds like it be Dylan Covey after Strahm tonight, snakes faced this pair in Philly, they got a few runs off Strahm and I like them to potentially do that again. Covey came in and went 5 innings only allowed 1 run. Before coming over from lad he had a decent 4 inning piggyback outing, I hate these things, so tough to cap. Both teams playing really good ball, I think pick is probably a good line for this game, feels a bit like a coin flip to me, I like both teams. Snakes are back home from out east without a day off, hasn’t been a great spot for them but very limited sample. I’d prob have looked at taking plus money on either team here. Guess it just a pass.
 
Card so far

Dunning ov 15.5 outs
Eflin ov 18.5 outs
Webb under 2.5 earned runs

Reds Ff tt ov 1.5
Reds ml

Fish Ff tt ov 1.5.
 
Don’t see anything in the k prop department I had to have. Lean Eflin but I rather take a shot at his out total +145 then lay -160 for 6+ k’s.

Luzardo could absolutely punch out 8+ vs seattle.
 
Marsski said:
Reds have won 4 of last 5 series (beat STL, LAD, Red Sox, Cubs and lost to Milw) and catching plus money on a series price from the lowly Royals. Played +110 for a unit.
Click to expand...
feels like a trap?

Greinke has been good lately and the KC bullpen is decent considering how bad they are, but CIN feels very obvious
 
2daBank said:
Royals got a team ops of .512 the last 7 days. .630 the last month which only better than A’s and cubs! If weaver gonna have a good start you would think it be against these guys. Gotta think he could go 5+ Innings, Maybe 6, and not give up more than 2-3 at most.

It juicy at -160 to the over but reds Ff tt is 1.5? I feel like there a damn good chance reds score at least 2 off Greinke, he has stifled some teams (like cards, lol) but I think cincy be fine and I do think facing waino yesterday should be a benefit to them here. Kinda odd yesterday reds Ff total was 2.5 but only 3.5 for game, now today the Ff is 1.5 but 4.5 for game, not sure how to explain that? I don’t know much bout kc pen but I can’t imagine it much worse than cards? Yesterday it wouida been silly not to play full game over, tonight it seems silly not to play the Ff team total over!
Click to expand...
CIN at home they only priced in 8 AB vs road 9?
 
Love the way dunning gets those DP balls at the most opportune times!

Reds ran themselves out of a inning vs grienke, that annoying.
 
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