Monday Discussion Thread

VirginiaCavs

VirginiaCavs

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Jul 4 Mon 2022

11:05 AM
951Miami MarlinsB. Garrett -L-1½
+130		-113O 9½
+100
952Washington NationalsP. Corbin -L+1½
-150		+103U 9½
-120
01:05 PM
963Texas RangersD. Dunning -R+1½
-195		+102O 8½
-110
964Baltimore OriolesD. Kremer -R-1½
+170		-112U 8½
-110
01:10 PM
965Cleveland Guardians - Game #1Z. Plesac -R-1½
+130		-123O 8½
-110
966Detroit Tigers - Game #1G. Hill -R+1½
-150		+113U 8½
-110
04:10 PM
953Chicago CubsJ. Steele -L+1½
-150		+132O 9
-115
954Milwaukee BrewersE. Lauer -L-1½
+130		-143U 9
-105
06:10 PM
959San Francisco GiantsC. Rodon -L-1½
-105		-171O 8½
+105
960Arizona DiamondbacksM. Bumgarner -L+1½
-115		+157U 8½
-125
06:40 PM
955New York MetsT. Walker -R-1½
-105		-155O 9½
-115
956Cincinnati RedsH. Greene -R+1½
-115		+143U 9½
-105
06:40 PM
977Seattle MarinersC. Flexen -R+1½
-145		+157O 7½
-115
978San Diego PadresS. Manaea -L-1½
+125		-171U 7½
-105
07:20 PM
957St. Louis CardinalsD. Hudson -R+1½
-140		+148O 9
-115
958Atlanta BravesK. Wright -R-1½
+120		-161U 9
-105
08:10 PM
973Minnesota TwinsD. Bundy -R+1½
-180		+110O 9
-125
974Chicago White SoxJ. Cueto -R-1½
+160		-120U 9
+105
09:07 PM
975Toronto Blue JaysA. Manoah -R-1½
-120		-220O 7
-105
976Oakland AthleticsC. Irvin -L+1½
+100		+200U 7
-115
09:10 PM
961Colorado RockiesK. Freeland -L+1½
+115		+238O 8½
-110
962Los Angeles DodgersJ. Urias -L+1 Markets-1½
-135		-267U 8½
-110
 
MLB could have done a way better job of scheduling for this day! That why this sport struggling you asshats!! Nba gives us fantastic matchups on Xmas. You give us this crap!
 
Let them screw around and set Manoah k prop at 5.5. Last week I woulda thought that was just wishful thinking but right now I’m thinking there a good shot that where they open him!! That would be pound town!! I know he not fanning a ton but he will pitch deep vs these guys and he shouldn’t have any problem punching out 1 per inning. Off top my head id seriously say we talking bout at least 75% probability he fans 6!
 
Hudson vs ATL really interesting, the one advantage they give you is they strike out a lot. Hudson doesn’t miss a lot of bats, he just tough to barrel up. I’m gonna have a tough time coming up with a line I feel good with for him.
 
If line flips to O’s being dogged I would be interested in them getting plus money. Think it might cause pretty sure the advanced stuff likes dunning. Think he facing the tougher offense tho. Good thing bout Kremer is he sporting some nice reverse splits, he tougher on lefty hitters than right and I’d guess rangers throw a very lefty heavy lineup at him.
 
Be hoping they come with a 4.5 for Steele k’s vs milw. Even 5.5 id be interested, 4.5 would just be automatic.,
 
It is so odd the seemingly random way they decide to post a handful of pitcher props overnight then come with the others sporadically whenever they feel like it. Long as they keep getting the numbers wrong guess I won’t complain too much! Just doesn’t make any sense, it would make life easier even if I understood just had some idea of why or when they would put which ones out!!
 
2daBank said:
Be hoping they come with a 4.5 for Steele k’s vs milw. Even 5.5 id be interested, 4.5 would just be automatic.,
Click to expand...

Also lean cubs Ff, they the better lhp hitting team and I think Steele and Lauer are fairly close. Scrubbies have won their last 3 series against cards, reds, and Boston so they playing pretty good ball at the moment. Good price to back them.
 
We will see where they come with his total out number, if Plesac is 17.5 or less the play is over total outs, if they make it 18.5 then I think I’ll be on tigers Ff team total under 1.5 +125.. they kinda in no man’s land with Plesac total, he is a 6 inning machine and owns the tigers, he also been fantastic in the day this year, but he pretty much never goes past 6 innings so how do the set him at 18.5? Think they gonna have to give us 17.5, id assume they attach some steep juice to it but we shall see., one way or another want to play something on him/fading tigers!! Maybe just tribe Ff as tigers starting some 26 year old minor leaguer I know nothing bout! Lol
 
Last edited:
Where will they set Corbin k’s? I honestly have no idea, probably won’t help he just had a dominant 12k performance against pirates. Now he gets another team who fans a ton vs lhp. He had had some solid outings lately and fish not only whiff a ton vs lhp they also tied with tribe for the worst team ops against lhp. If Corbin k’s set low I think I’ll be looking there, if they come with a strong k number then have to try to figure something else out. I would love a 3.5, would play a 4.5, 5.5 prob what it should be. We just have to wait and see.
 
King Slap said:
Not a guy who follows the Nationals (because I find the name racist), but does Corbin just blow now? Always thought that was an odd contract
Click to expand...

He has shown flashes of past glory recently and as I said above im always looking to fade fish in one way or another vs lhp. Preferably k prop as they whiff something stupid like 34% the time vs lhp!! (That might not be spot on as my numbers not totally updated but close to that which insane!).
 
This about as big a series can be pre all star break for the white Sox imo! They just went to San Fran and swept a solid giants team who threw 3 decent or better rhp’s at them which been their cryptonite. Now they come back home and get one the 2 teams ahead of them in standings. Can they actually keep the winning going or they gonna do same thing they have done all year and go back into hiding? I’ll take cueto over bundy all day every day, I have total confidence he will give them a chance to win, will the offense be able to hit a mediocre rhp? I want to say yes but last time I thought they were showing some good signs they proceeded to not score shit vs average at best rhp for another week!
 
Then I look and see bundy is 5-0 lifetime vs cws with a sub 4 era and ops against just bout .600!! Lol., maybe I’ll just watch and see!! Potentially w cueto prop if numbers right., just don’t think I’m ready to lay juice with them until they show me more.
 
Sucks that Freeland just faced lad at coors last week. I’d say that price is crazy steep if that wasn’t the case but it easy to think Urias vs Rockies lineup a 2nd straight time this time in la will fare better than Freeland seeing lad a second straight. He does have a pretty good history at Chavez ravine w a lifetime 3.38 era. I’d def be interested in his out total as I think it be fairly low, I might still be but the b2b times facing them does worry me., even tho doyer lineup has changed quite a bit I still think it better to be against them with lhp.

Rox have had pretty good success vs Urias but I’m assuming most of that stems from his starts at coors. Rox did face him once in la early last season and scored 5 runs in 6 innings, then once in the covid season they banged him up in la. So even tho most his starts against them been at coors for some odd reason rox have gotten to him the last few times they saw him in la also!! -275 such a huge freaking price, I could see talking myself into a rox Ff or full game taking the +1.5 runs at +115. I swear if doyers didn’t just see Freeland I’d love to get some of rox here:,
 
They actually have Freeland out total up, 16.5, was hoping they would undershoot him like they did Gore, although I could argue 5.2 innings to cash if pretty low for a guy who has went 6+ innings in 5 straight starts including 6 innings vs lad at coors last time out!!
 
My buddy @VirginiaCavs has posted a pitchers stats a few times when they facing a team b2b starts, maybe if we ask nicely we can trouble him to let us know how Freeland fares in these spots over his career :) . Also maybe how doyers do facing same pitcher b2b starts! :)
 
I really can’t stress enough how much I hate it when I like a play where pitcher facing same team in b2b starts!!
 
I can pretty much guarantee I’m not gonna have close to same amount of plays I have had the last few days., that was a total anomaly where the stars just aligned.
 
These dickheads put most the props out overnight and some degenerate Assholes who obviously live in a state where they can bet on the website are moving a couple my numbers!! Greedy bastards! Lol. Fuck, I don’t think these pricks even open til 9, 8 on weekend but I dunno if this still weekend for them or not? Prob not.
 
2daBank said:
My buddy @VirginiaCavs has posted a pitchers stats a few times when they facing a team b2b starts, maybe if we ask nicely we can trouble him to let us know how Freeland fares in these spots over his career :) . Also maybe how doyers do facing same pitcher b2b starts! :)
Click to expand...
Based on recent history I don‘t think facing the same lineup consecutive times constitutes a good reason for going against Freeland. He has a very good mix of pitches, which I think helps him in this sort of situation
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Based on recent history I don‘t think facing the same lineup consecutive times constitutes a good reason for going against Freeland. He has a very good mix of pitches, which I think helps him in this sort of situation
Click to expand...

Well ya know I’m not looking to go against him, next time I think bout playing a -275 fav in mlb be the 1st time. I’d like to play rox Ff or prob more likely Freeland out total as I think they usually give lad lineup too much respect when it comes to opposing starter props. I’d say if b2b starts isn’t a issue they certainly did that here, making his out total 16.5 when he has went 6 innings or more every start in June is either overrating lad vs lhp or underrating him.
 
What are you fav capping stats for SP's?? Rank these if you please...

Days of Rest
Conditions (night, day, domes, etc.)
Stadiums
vs. Team
Home vs. Away
Umpires
Other?

:popcorn:
 
2daBank said:
Then I look and see bundy is 5-0 lifetime vs cws with a sub 4 era and ops against just bout .600!! Lol., maybe I’ll just watch and see!! Potentially w cueto prop if numbers right., just don’t think I’m ready to lay juice with them until they show me more.
Click to expand...
Yeah I was likin' Bundy too....fwiw.

:shake:
 
JROCK1966 said:
What are you fav capping stats for SP's?? Rank these if you please...

Days of Rest
Conditions (night, day, domes, etc.)
Stadiums
vs. Team
Home vs. Away
Umpires
Other?

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Xfip/siera
K/bb rate/swinging strike %
Hard hit %/barrel %
The pitch values given to their individual pitches on fangraphs.
Velo and/or spin
How often they throw what pitches and how that lines up with how effective they are.

I dunno if any one those vastly more important than the other, they all help paint a picture for me. The stuff you listed all comes after what I have above. Once you get to those I think days rest then conditions are next most important to me, then vs team, stadium, umpire.
 
To be clear I don’t use xfip as a be all end all, sometimes it actually turns into a opposite tool for me as I’m really fond of guys who out perform their advanced metrics when I can justify why, there often a ton of value on pitchers like that. I don’t have any kind of specific formula, I’m not really computer smart enough to be a model guy and even if I was it wouldn’t work for me cause I never value the same stats the same, it kinda like cooking for me and I never use a recipe or write shit down (even when sometimes I wish I had), i just mix shit together and it usually comes out tasting amazing, I have a gift! Same w how I cap pitchers. Sometimes I love a guy w a great xfip other times I don’t care it bad, the analytics tend to devalue guys who pitch to contact which I don’t completely agree with and they love anyone who strikes a lot of ppl out which again I think is short sighted. Yes there some truth in all of it but if being me has taught me anything I know there way more than 1 way to succeed at something!!
 
Is it crazy to like the Rox vs. Urias tonight? The Rockies have always seemed to score at least 3-4 runs vs. him and he has a 5.56 ERA vs. them. Freeland is lined up against Urias and Freeland has a much better ERA on the road (2.91) vs. home (5.23)....thinking maybe I can get some great odds 1st half to keep the relief pitchers for the Rockies out of the equation.

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Is it crazy to like the Rox vs. Urias tonight? The Rockies have always seemed to score at least 3-4 runs vs. him and he has a 5.56 ERA vs. them. Freeland is lined up against Urias and Freeland has a much better ERA on the road (2.91) vs. home (5.23)....thinking maybe I can get some great odds 1st half to keep the relief pitchers for the Rockies out of the equation.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

If you read the stuff I take time to post all night you would see I agree completely!!! Lol. either with 1st 5 or I kinda like Freeland total outs over 16.5. I just don’t love the fact he facing lad for 2nd straight start but think I’m over it. In Urias defense for some reason a crazy high amount his starts vs rox been at coors and they a different lineup at home, they have gotten to him the last 2 times in la just hasn’t been many cases facing him here:,
 
2daBank said:
If you read the stuff I take time to post all night you would see I agree completely!!! Lol. either with 1st 5 or I kinda like Freeland total outs over 16.5. I just don’t love the fact he facing lad for 2nd straight start but think I’m over it. In Urias defense for some reason a crazy high amount his starts vs rox been at coors and they a different lineup at home, they have gotten to him the last 2 times in la just hasn’t been many cases facing him here:,
Click to expand...
sorry for being late to the party....:)

sometimes I'm in my own little world but we're all ok in here....;)
 
JROCK1966 said:
Is it crazy to like the Rox vs. Urias tonight? The Rockies have always seemed to score at least 3-4 runs vs. him and he has a 5.56 ERA vs. them. Freeland is lined up against Urias and Freeland has a much better ERA on the road (2.91) vs. home (5.23)....thinking maybe I can get some great odds 1st half to keep the relief pitchers for the Rockies out of the equation.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Freeland been pretty good in la also. 3.38 career I think.
 
The Cincy line is fishy....Walker should be a bigger fav imho...need to look deeper to see why.

:popcorn:
 
VirginiaCavs said:
Based on recent history I don‘t think facing the same lineup consecutive times constitutes a good reason for going against Freeland. He has a very good mix of pitches, which I think helps him in this sort of situation
Click to expand...

Variety is nice for sure but sometimes I think pure stuff better in those spots. Obviously Freeland not overwhelming ppl w stuff but he smart enough to show them a different approach I think.
 
JROCK1966 said:
The Cincy line is fishy....Walker should be a bigger fav imho...need to look deeper to see why.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

Cause greene is capable of coming out and mowing down 10+. Of course he capable of getting lit up also: I still find Walker tough to trust at that kinda price. I like getting him on the cheap but he little more unpredictable (for me) than I’d prefer to be laying -160s with.
 
2daBank said:
Well ya know I’m not looking to go against him, next time I think bout playing a -275 fav in mlb be the 1st time. I’d like to play rox Ff or prob more likely Freeland out total as I think they usually give lad lineup too much respect when it comes to opposing starter props. I’d say if b2b starts isn’t a issue they certainly did that here, making his out total 16.5 when he has went 6 innings or more every start in June is either overrating lad vs lhp or underrating him.
Click to expand...
Yes by not a good reason for going against him i meant for being against backing him
 
JROCK1966 said:
The Cincy line is fishy....Walker should be a bigger fav imho...need to look deeper to see why.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
ok I guess it's understandable...Greene is on 4 days rest and his splits show he is drastically better on four days (2.73 ERA) vs. five (7.97 ERA) and the 1 career start Walker had vs. Cincy he gave up 5 ERs in 5 IP....so there are a couple of red flags to back walker and I guess the line shows it.
 
JROCK1966 said:
ok I guess it's understandable...Greene is on 4 days rest and his splits show he is drastically better on four days (2.73 ERA) vs. five (7.97 ERA) and the 1 career start Walker had vs. Cincy he gave up 5 ERs in 5 IP....so there are a couple of red flags to back walker and I guess the line shows it.
Click to expand...

I thought Mets bout 60% to win was right. If you made me I’d prob role with them but no outcome would really shock me. Geeene inconsistent nature says it prob bout time for him to pitch a gem, lol.
 
Here what I played

Kremer ov 3.5 k’s
Manoah ov 5.5 k’s
Steele ov 5.5 k’s (this might get pushed down to 4.5 but I’m good w the plus money here)
Freeland ov 15.5 outs
Cubs Ff ml
Tribe Ff -.5
Plesac ov 17.5 outs


That all for now.
 
The juice on few of those sucks I know. That what I was bitching bout overnight as I watched them get bet up. Then manoah went up another 20. Cents after I hit it.
 
2daBank said:
I’m as bad at predicting hitters as I am good at pitchers, lol. That why I don’t play dfs in mlb cause my pitchers always rack up points but my bats generally suck!!! Prob why I don’t like betting overs a whole lot either!!
Click to expand...
I’m up a little over all doing 7 player RR HR parlays. Went 4/7 on one Saturday for a little over a million haha. Changed two players last second that ended up hitting one. 6/7 would have been a decent payout. Overall it’s certainly a crap shoot bet but I don’t bet more than $30 for every RR parlay I do on them. Just need to hit it once is what I keep telling myself haha.
 
Walker is 5-0 with a 1.38 ERA vs. teams <.500 WP....of the teams he has started against, that are below .500, Cincy has almost the lowest batting average vs. right-handed pitching. See below. He absolutely dominated the Angels and Rockies. FWIW....

LAA .234
CIN .235
COL .245
WAS .252
MIA .252


walker.jpg
 
Ryno14 said:
Plesac O4.5Ks -120? @2daBank
Click to expand...

I don’t have any problem with, I just liked the outs better. I don’t think of tigers as a high strikeout team, it willl work out better for me if he didn’t have bunch of pitch eating k’s,, that what happened to singer the other day he turned into a strikeout pitcher on me and ran his count way up. I’d much prefer to see him pitch to contact and get fast outs which I’d think a strong possibility. Him going 6 innings felt like a solid 70% likelihood which obviously makes the -150ish super light!!!
 
2daBank said:
I don’t have any problem with, I just liked the outs better. I don’t think of tigers as a high strikeout team, it willl work out better for me if he didn’t have bunch of pitch eating k’s,, that what happened to singer the other day he turned into a strikeout pitcher on me and ran his count way up. I’d much prefer to see him pitch to contact and get fast outs which I’d think a strong possibility. Him going 6 innings felt like a solid 70% likelihood which obviously makes the -150ish super light!!!
Click to expand...
Think Tigers are like dead last in chasing and 25th in whiff rate against RHP
 
Ryno14 said:
Think Tigers are like dead last in chasing and 25th in whiff rate against RHP
Click to expand...

Interesting. Havnt looked at them for awhile I suppose, not as if it I’m opposed to or avoid playing pitcher k’s against them, they just havnt been on same list as some the other high strikeout rate teams im
Always looking to play against, guess I should do some updating!! Regardless I’m pretty confident I would like outs better w Plesac anyways, I assume a strikeout per inning fare line so I don’t have any argument with his k’s at 4.5 seeing how I expect he goes 6.
 
Wow. Corbin is pitching great but not punching anyone out. Guess I should thank books for setting such a aggressive number, they made it exactly where I would have but didn’t expect it cause they typically more cautious than I!! I woulda played and lost if they made him 4.5, lol.,
 
2daBank said:
Wow. Corbin is pitching great but not punching anyone out. Guess I should thank books for setting such a aggressive number, they made it exactly where I would have but didn’t expect it cause they typically more cautious than I!! I woulda played and lost if they made him 4.5, lol.,
Click to expand...

Something bout 1st game of day, that the one I have missed all weekend, obviously little different on Saturday where gausman got hurt than yesterday where I just made the wrong play on Singer:, loss none less tho.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

VirginiaCavs
Monday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
58
Views
507
CPA-hole
CPA-hole
VirginiaCavs
Sunday Discussion Thread
Replies
29
Views
264
peelpub94
peelpub94
VirginiaCavs
Saturday Discussion Thread
Replies
38
Views
305
TheDodgers
T
VirginiaCavs
Tuesday Discussion Thread
Replies
32
Views
266
B.A.R.
B.A.R.
VirginiaCavs
Tuesday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
72
Views
534
peelpub94
peelpub94
Back
Top