Monday Discussion/Thoughts

[reNew Orleans]

<table border="0" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="2" width="100%"><tbody><tr><td colspan="7" class="blk-title">MLB Baseball - Mon 7/23</td> </tr> <tr class="wht-title" bgcolor="#16177c"> <td colspan="3">Game</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Run Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Money Line</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">Total Runs</td> <td>More </td> </tr> <tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">951</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Milwaukee Brewers
C. Capuano</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -191 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+111 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">952</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +178 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-119 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">953</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Los Angeles Dodgers
C. Billingsley</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -215 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-105 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">954</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Houston Astros
C. Sampson</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +195 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">955</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Diego Padres
G. Maddux</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -164 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 +108 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 06:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">956</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Colorado Rockies
J. Francis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +154 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-136 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -118 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">957</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Florida Marlins
D. Willis</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -171 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+121 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 06:40 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">958</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Arizona D-Backs
D. Davis</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +161 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-129 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -116 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">959</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Atlanta Braves
J. Smoltz</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +140 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-118 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:15 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">960</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">San Francisco Giants
M. Cain</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -150 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+110 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -116 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">961</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Boston Red Sox
J. Lester</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -158 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+120 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 11 +106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">962</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Cleveland Indians
J. Westbrook</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +148 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-128 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 11 -116 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">963</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +108 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-153 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 8 +101 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 04:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">964</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Toronto Blue Jays
S. Marcum</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -118 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+145 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 8 -111 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">965</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Detroit Tigers
A. Miller</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +155 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-105 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">966</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Chicago White Sox
M. Buehrle</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -165 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-103 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +106 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">967</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">New York Yankees
R. Clemens</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 -104 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-165 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -106 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:10 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">968</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Kansas City Royals
O. Perez</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -106 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+157 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 -104 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">969</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Seattle Mariners
H. Ramirez</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -173 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+112 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 10 -111 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#d0d0d0"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 05:35 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">970</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Texas Rangers
K. Millwood</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +163 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-120 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 10 +101 </td></tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> Mon 7/23</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">971</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">Oakland Athletics
C. Gaudin</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> +1.5 -169 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">+127 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> OVER 9 -116 </td><td rowspan="2" align="center" valign="middle">
</td> </tr><tr bgcolor="#eeeeee"> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> 07:05 PM</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">972</td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">LAA Angels
B. Colon</td><td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> -1.5 +159 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap">-135 </td> <td class="main_body_blk" nowrap="nowrap"> UNDER 9 +106 </td></tr></tbody></table>

You Know The Drill, With the early games today, plenty of time to discuss Monday games.


'an_horse'

 

[Man on Fire]

Det and the Over

Miller RHB WHIP 1.68
Det hitting .278 against Buerhle
Det hitting .299 against LHP

 

[reNew Orleans]

cin
atl

min/tor under 8

 

[E.T.G.]

Just a few thoughts.

I would lean to Cinci w/ Harang. Think Capuano hasn't won in atleast his last 6 or 7 starts, thats off the top of my head so could be wrong there. Downside is that Cinci has just been awful the last few days on the road trip which they concluded today. They really struggle w/ RISP.

Rockies, ya they were dog shit vs. Washington but this is a much better team at home. Padres offense will make any pitcher look good, see Durbin.

RSox, I liked Lester last yr and I am rooting for the guy since what he had to overcome. First start of the yr, think he will be pumped and pitches good. He is pitching to take Tarvarez's spot as well.

Rangers U10, downside here is that Ramierez is dog shit outside of Seattle so he will prob get rocked.

WSox U9, Buehrle has been very solid and Miller has some pretty good stuff, think this is a low scoring game. I liked this Under a lot and don't think there are more than 7 runs here.

Astros, I am not a big fan of the Astros at all but Sampson has pitched better this yr than I thought he would. Decent era at home. Billingsley might be good one day but he is vulnerable.

 

[RSMS9999]

cin
atl

Look terrific

 

[SteelBucsFan]

cincy rl looks tasty

 

[RSMS9999]

cincy cant hit lefties is the one drawback.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Colorado off being shut-out 2 games straight. I bumped my stats thread for that, but the designations involve teams either finishing the season with winning or losing records (the best way I could categorise matters),

and while BOL is a handful of games above .500 now, they're no certs to still be above .500 at season's end.

Ok, scrap that. I was looking at the wrong record (doh). They're exactly .500, so I'd guess w/high probability they'll finish the season w/a losing record.

 

[tee*dub]

Buehrle, looking real hard at that price.

 

[Miracle]

Just a few thoughts.

Rockies, ya they were dog shit vs. Washington but this is a much better team at home. Padres offense will make any pitcher look good, see Durbin.

Im leaning Rockies too, but Francis' splts vs San Diego kinda worry me...


Jeff Francis (R) Previous Starts vs. San Diego
<table class="data" cellpadding="2" cellspacing="1"><tbody><tr class="datahead"> <td width="13%">Date</td> <td width="12%">Opposition</td> <td width="8%">Scr</td> <td width="12%">Line</td> <td width="5%">W/L</td> <td width="5%">IP</td> <td width="5%">H</td> <td width="5%">R</td> <td width="5%">ER</td> <td width="4%">SO</td> <td width="4%">BB</td> <td width="4%">HR</td> <td width="6%">PIT</td> <td width="6%">P/IP</td> <td width="6%">G/F</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/21/07</td> <td class="datacell"> SD</td> <td class="datacell">3-7</td> <td class="datacell">-125/10</td> <td class="datacell"> L/P</td> <td class="datacell">6.0</td> <td class="datacell">13</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell"> 6 </td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 103 </td> <td class="datacell"> 17.2 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.71</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">9/5/06</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SD</td> <td class="datacell">4-5</td> <td class="datacell">133/7.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">5.0</td> <td class="datacell">10</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 95 </td> <td class="datacell"> 19.0 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.40</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">8/25/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SD</td> <td class="datacell">13-5</td> <td class="datacell">-148/9</td> <td class="datacell"> W/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.0</td> <td class="datacell">8</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 93 </td> <td class="datacell"> 15.5 </td> <td class="datacell"> 2.00</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">7/29/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SD</td> <td class="datacell">2-4</td> <td class="datacell">-118/9</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">7.0</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell"> 2 </td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 109 </td> <td class="datacell"> 15.6 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.80</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">5/31/06</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SD</td> <td class="datacell">2-3</td> <td class="datacell">122/7.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">5.2</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell"> 2 </td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 95 </td> <td class="datacell"> 16.8 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.25</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">4/17/06</td> <td class="datacell"> SD</td> <td class="datacell">2-5</td> <td class="datacell">-119/11</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">6.0</td> <td class="datacell">6</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 4 </td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 112 </td> <td class="datacell"> 18.7 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.75</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">9/7/05</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SD</td> <td class="datacell">2-4</td> <td class="datacell">167/8</td> <td class="datacell"> L/U</td> <td class="datacell">4.2</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell"> 3 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 98 </td> <td class="datacell"> 21.0 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.50</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">8/26/05</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SD</td> <td class="datacell">4-3</td> <td class="datacell">172/8</td> <td class="datacell"> W/U</td> <td class="datacell">6.2</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">2</td> <td class="datacell"> 2 </td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 99 </td> <td class="datacell"> 14.8 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.45</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">7/10/05</td> <td class="datacell"> SD</td> <td class="datacell">5-8</td> <td class="datacell">-140/12.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">4.0</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell"> 7 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">3</td> <td class="datacell">1</td> <td class="datacell"> 97 </td> <td class="datacell"> 24.2 </td> <td class="datacell"> 1.67</td> </tr> <tr> <td class="datahl2">5/2/05</td> <td class="datacell"> @ SD</td> <td class="datacell">4-5</td> <td class="datacell">155/7.5</td> <td class="datacell"> L/O</td> <td class="datacell">6.0</td> <td class="datacell">7</td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell"> 5 </td> <td class="datacell">5</td> <td class="datacell">4</td> <td class="datacell">0</td> <td class="datacell"> 99 </td> <td class="datacell"> 16.5 </td> <td class="datacell"> 0.62</td></tr></tbody></table>

 

[Trueblue]

Like Giants/Braves Under, esp with the travel the Braves face. Only thing that worries me is that they're coming off a low scoring game from tonight though.

 

[orangemonk]

tigers as a team have good career #s vs buehrle (.278)
tigers 20-7 vs LHP , sox are 10-19 vs lefties...
Millers the real deal, looks like a bargain at -105

 

[Blue_Chip]

As Miracle pointed out, Francis has trouble w/ SD.

Maddux is a groundball pitcher, which negates the Colorado-air effect (hits seem to carry farther in CO)

SD priced @ 1.3:1 dogs because Maddux started July 0-3 w/ 8.81 ERA, although he recovered nicely his last start.

The public is down on Maddux because of his July stats... I disagree w/ the sentiment, which is why I like the Padres w/ Mad Dog on the mound tonight.

 

[BetCrimes1984]

- San Deigo is 1-6 1st game on the road off a home stand of at least 2 series this season.
- Colorado is 4-1 1st game at home off a road trip of at least 2 series this season.

- The Fav is 10-0-2 in Houston's last 12 home games.

- Boston has lost it's last 6 road games.

- 18 of Philly's last 20 wins have been by 3 or more runs.