Monday 11/11/13 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - MON 11/11[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Atlanta Hawks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-2.5 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 194.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Charlotte Bobcats[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+2.5 1.990[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 194.5 2.000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]703[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Memphis Grizzlies[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+6.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 184.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]704[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Indiana Pacers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-6.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 184.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-6 1.917[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 204 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+6 1.990[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 204 1.926[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]707[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Orlando Magic[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 188.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]708[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 188.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]709[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+8 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 186 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]05:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]710[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Chicago Bulls[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-8 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 186 2.000[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]713[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 196.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]06:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]714[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Utah Jazz[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+3 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 196.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]715[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Detroit Pistons[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 197 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]716[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Portland Trail Blazers [/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.926[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 197 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 11/11[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]717[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Minnesota Timberwolves[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+7 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 208 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]718[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-7 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 208 1.952[/TD]
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Under in Indy

Two top defensive teams - should be a war down low with z-bo and gasol up againt hibs and westy

Smells like a slugfest to me with very few layups/easy buckets with those animals patrolling the paint
 
Just got up and have 0 opinions yet. Looked at HH's card but not ready to start posting her card as she has a losing record. She did have 1 write up
#2 Happy Hippo
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Hawks-Bobkitties

The Hawks take on the Bobcats tonight as a road favorite. They don’t get this distinction very often, but over the last two seasons they have been able to capitalize on the road as a favorite, going 24-6 SU and winning by 9.73 points per game, while covering 70.4% of these contests. Both of these teams have started the season 3-3, but one team should have a lot more wins by the end of the season than the other, and that’s the one I’ll take tonight.

The Hawks are playing very well as a team right now, and they are leading the league at 28.3 assists per game. They have also been taking care of the ball well, as they are leading the league in least turnovers per possession as well. They logged 36 assists against the Magic in their last game, which really highlights their ability to distribute and shoot. Over the last five seasons, teams playing as a road favorite coming off a home game where they had 30 or more assists are 57-38 ATS (60.0%). The Hawks themselves over the last two seasons are 10-1 ATS when playing on the road after a home game where they had 30 or more assists.

Their high assist rate has also led to a 51.7% effective field goal rate, good for fifth in the league, and this is an important metric for evaluating teams and talent. On the other side, Charlotte is second to last in the league in effective field goal percentage. While Charlotte has won three games, when you look at the effective field goal percentage of the opponents they faced in these three wins (Cavs - 3rd to last, Knicks - 10th to last, Raptors - 19th), it puts these contests into a bit more perspective. The Hawks should be able to beat Charlotte in two important statistical areas tonight - field goal percentage and assists. When teams win these two categories, not surprisingly they are able to cover the spread at a rate of 80.5% in a sample of over 4000 games over the last five seasons.

The Hawks are starting to get on a roll, and catching teams near the beginning of a good streak is valuable for bettors. Teams coming off a double digit home win that are playing as a road favorite against an opponent coming off a home loss are 43-28-2 (60.6%) ATS over the past four seasons. This is also an important divisional game, as the winner of this game will be tied with the Heat for the division lead. If both these teams play fully motivated, Atlanta is more talented and should be able to win and cover the game. Over the last two seasons, the Hawks are 8-0 SU and 7-1 ATS versus the Bobcats, winning by an average margin of over 16 points per game. Over the last two seasons, the Bobcats playing as a home dog off a loss struggle, going just 17-30-2 ATS (36.2%).

Finally, there is the Jeff Teague factor. When Teague has 5 or more assists in a road game, the Hawks are 38-21-2 ATS (64.4%). Teague racked up 13 assists in their last game, and after a game where he had more than 10 assists, he has tallied five or more assists in the next game in 91.7% of these contests. The Hawks should be able to distribute the ball well in this game and their sharp shooters will get the points necessary to win.

Hawks -2.5


We are here to laugh at the odds and live our lives so well that Death will tremble to take us
 
Currently leaning Indiana. Better team, deeper team. It seems to me Memphis made a mistake dumping coach. We have a very thin team that is not playing well vs an Indiana team that does not run up the points vs average team but has shown a desire to run up the score against real competition. Indiana out scores team on average by over 11. Indiana has 5 covers this season to 1 by Memphis.
Memphis is outscored by 1 point a game. Indiana spreads have been very conservative this year when playing real teams like Nets and Chicago. Would like to hear arguments for Memphis who I did play vs GS in a good spot last game.
Some interest in Detroit who is playing at Portland in front of GS the next day. No bets yet
 
Currently leaning Indiana. Better team, deeper team. It seems to me Memphis made a mistake dumping coach. We have a very thin team that is not playing well vs an Indiana team that does not run up the points vs average team but has shown a desire to run up the score against real competition. Indiana out scores team on average by over 11.
Memphis is outscored by 1 point a game. Indiana spreads have been very conservative this year when playing real teams like Nets and Chicago. Would like to hear arguments for Memphis who I did play vs GS in a good spot last game.

I don't do trends and stats as much as you do, but i remember their last 2 games and they were defensive battles, really tight games. I just think 6.5 points may be enough for a Grizzlies cover. Still haven't locked it yet because i may have better games to bet. In fact, i think i like the under even more than the Grizz.
 
Team expert Trsman who leads evaluating Indiana and Memphis likes Memphis. Will be doing 3rd quarter and just looking at under.
Makes some sense. Memphis certainly dying to have a good result vs a good team
 
Strange how most every thread I see across the street has Memphis plus the points along with the throw away line "it should be a low scoring affair". If that's the case, why not just take out the guesswork and take the under? With the way these two play, you might see as few as three shots a minute on multiple occasions, meaning it would take an above average shooting night for both teams to get this over (Indiana shot 49% in the last meeting and still only came away with 82 points). Now if it's a close game at the end with foul shots to push it over, well...
 
Strange how most every thread I see across the street has Memphis plus the points along with the throw away line "it should be a low scoring affair". If that's the case, why not just take out the guesswork and take the under? With the way these two play, you might see as few as three shots a minute on multiple occasions, meaning it would take an above average shooting night for both teams to get this over (Indiana shot 49% in the last meeting and still only came away with 82 points). Now if it's a close game at the end with foul shots to push it over, well...

Both last games were close and barely went over the 170 points mark, so yes, the under is a way better option.
 
[h=2]SPURS AT 76ERS, 7 P.M. ET[/h] November 11, 2013 · 6:14PM
TV: League Pass

  • Spurs center Tim Duncan won’t play against the 76ers, according to coach Gregg Popovich. Since the Spurs played Sunday at New York, Popovich said he’s simply giving Duncan the night off to rest.
  • Spurs forward Matt Bonner (left calf) is also out.
  • San Antonio’s starting lineup consists of Tony Parker and Danny Green at guard, Kawhi Leonard and Boris Diaw at forward with Tiago Splitter at center.
  • Sixers coach Brett Brown was an assistant under Popovich for the previous seven seasons. Popovich, on Brown: “I’m really thrilled he’s got this opportunity. People will find out real soon, he’s for real.”
  • The Spurs are one of three teams, along with the Miami Heat and Denver Nuggets, to feature a roster without a rookie listed.
  • San Antonio point guard Tony Parker has scored in double figures in all seven games.
  • The Spurs have won four in a row.
  • Sixers reserve center Daniel Orton (right knee) soreness is expected to play after missing last Saturday’s game at Cleveland.
  • Sixers forward Evan Turner has scored at least 18 points in all seven games this season.
  • The Sixers have dropped four straight against the Spurs.
  • Sixers rookie point guard Michael Carter-Williams has scored 131 points through seven games, the highest total by a Sixers rookie since Allen Iverson had 166 in 1996-97.
  • Brown, on what he learned from Popovich: “Where do you begin? Humility, perspective, defense, attention to detail, ensuring you don’t skip steps, and a lot of things that don’t have to do with basketball.”
– Andy Jasner
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[h=2]HAWKS AT BOBCATS, 7 P.M. ET[/h] November 11, 2013 · 5:57PM
TV: League Pass


  • Charlotte Bobcats center Al Jefferson will make his first start since the season opener Oct. 30 at Houston, after sitting out the last five games dealing with an sprained right ankle. However, how long Jefferson plays is still up in the air. “It’s been a long time since he’s played,” Bobcats coach Steve Clifford said. “His conditioning is not even near where it needs to be. Unfortunately, we’ve got 13 games over the next 23 days … so you can’t use practices to get him back to where he wants to be. So we’ll leave him out there for as long as he can play.”
  • Also back on the bench for the Bobcats is Clifford, who had two stents inserted into his heart Nov. 8 and missed Charlotte’s game against the New York Knicks. Clifford suffered chest pains the evening of Nov. 7 and was admitted to a local hospital, where the procedure to insert the stents was performed the next day. Clifford returned to work Sunday, but his time and duties at practice will be limited for the next several weeks. “I’m just going to come in just when the team’s here – practice, shootarounds and the games,” Clifford said. “I’m going to work out of the house more, and sleep in for the next couple weeks. I’m getting checked on regularly, and I’m doing exactly what [the doctors] say.”
  • The Atlanta Hawks have put up some impressive stats through the first two weeks of the season, both on offense and defense. The Hawks lead the NBA in assists per game (28.3, with point guard Jeff Teague leading the team with 9.8 apg), and seventh in scoring at 105.0 points per game. Defensively, Atlanta is second in the league in steals (10.5 per game), with six players averaging better than a steal per game.
  • Hawks shooting guard Kyle Korver can put his name in the team’s record books tonight against the Bobcats. His streak of 79 consecutive games with at least one made 3-pointer is tied for the second-l0ngest streak in NBA history (Dana Barros holds the record at 89 games). In addition, Korver needs just four made 3-pointers to tie Craig Ehlo for 10[SUP]th[/SUP] on Atlanta’s all-time list with 210, and needs only two made field goals to reach 2,500 for his career.
 
Took the spurs rockets ml parlay and the magic 1q... Celtics on a high after coming from home from the Florida sweep with two very close wins. I think the magic pounce on them early
 
Bulls play scratched, the stats point to a DD win, and the fact is that the Cavs have lost all 4 games on the road by an average of 10 points, but my gut is telling me to stay away. Locked the over in the Clippers game. 2 teams with awesome shooters, i see this game going for the high 200's.
 
Anyone think the middle is a good idea in Indiana? The Pacers are being a lot more aggressive on offense than I thought they would be.
 
Small bets on Detroit and over. No examples from this year but Detroit last 20 in first game of a b-b 16-4 over
 
Won small bet on Houston minus 2 first quarter. Would have mentioned it but heard after I made the bet that Houston team was very sick.
 
Totally misjudged the Grizzlies, thought they would come out differently, glad i took the under instead.
 
What a sloppy game between the Raptors and the Rockets. Still a Rockets 2H total around 51 or 52, and I may have to bite...
 
Totally misjudged the Grizzlies, thought they would come out differently, glad i took the under instead.
Such a strange team. Decent pieces on offense between Gasol, Randolph, Allen and Conley, but they just don't mesh...
 
Such a strange team. Decent pieces on offense between Gasol, Randolph, Allen and Conley, but they just don't mesh...

I thought they would be hungry, they fought the last 2 games to the wire, and the Pacers being on such a high should be enough motivation.
 
any thoughts on the pistons/blazers?

I cannot back the pistons on the road but they should have the advantage on the interior
 
any thoughts on the pistons/blazers?

I cannot back the pistons on the road but they should have the advantage on the interior

Blazers backcourt hasn't been looking that great to me. Detroit does have the advantage in the paint. If i had to place a bet on that game, it would be on Detroit, but i need to see more games from them on the road to do so.
 
Not that it's a fundamental factor for me when i pick totals, but the reffing on the TWolves/Clippers game could influence my over. Let's hope it doesn't.
 
Boston, Atlanta and Chicago all pulled through. Too bad i don't trust them enough yet enough to put my leans into bets.
 
Howard's missed 4 FT's down the stretch here which could have sealed the game for the Rockets. What's the point of keeping him in there especially since the Raptors have no inside presence?
 
Lol at the rockets FT shooting. Gonna take a break from NBA if they lose this. Have very bad mojo right now
 
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