Monday 11/10/14 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - MON 11/10[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MORE[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/10[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]701[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]New Orleans Pelicans[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+6 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 201.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]702[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Cleveland Cavaliers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-6 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 201.5 1.952[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 11/10[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]705[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Atlanta Hawks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-1.5 1.925[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 195.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]706[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]New York Knicks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+1.5 1.980[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 195.5 1.909[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt1"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 11/10[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]709[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]San Antonio Spurs[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+2.5 1.970[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 203 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]710[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-2.5 1.934[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 203 1.952[/TD]
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man 6 seems like a lot to give the pels...is there any way this line actually could go up?
 
No way I think. So far, the lines went in Cleveland's favor, so public doesn't believe in Cleveland too much I guess, especially with Pelicans just winning in SA.
Cleveland have yet to win at home. Doubt they will go 0 - 2 at home...
 
watched cleve twice and pels once so small sample but pels looked more organized although cleve did looked better against nuggs but the nuggs were so bad that night that duke could have beat them.....i can see this one going to the wire
 
The line movement favors a play on the Pelicans. Opened at 8 and quickly dipped to -6 1/2. Pelicans will not lose by more than 6.
 
Cleveland without waiters & dellevadova (i believe). big loss to their bench imo, but that means more burn for kyrie and lebron...anthony davis could end up covering lebron, if this is the case I think the Pelicans get the W. Holiday matches up ok with Kyrie...Ryan Anderson stretch 4 matches up nicely against Love. this is going to be a great game, Pels in a teaser with the Spurs looks juicy to me....
 
theking said:
Cleveland without waiters & dellevadova (i believe). big loss to their bench imo, but that means more burn for kyrie and lebron...anthony davis could end up covering lebron, if this is the case I think the Pelicans get the W. Holiday matches up ok with Kyrie...Ryan Anderson stretch 4 matches up nicely against Love. this is going to be a great game, Pels in a teaser with the Spurs looks juicy to me....
Click to expand...

???
 
Anyone have a site they use for accurate starting lineups?

Ten before tip- used to post about 10 minutes before, including the late scratches??

nbastartingfive is not accurate....
 
TheCashMan said:
Could you elaborate please?
Click to expand...

Absolutely. From a line movement standpoint, Vegas seems to want bets on the Cavs to cover. It's dropped 2 1/2 points with most bets coming in on the Cavs.

Betting in this manner was roughly 8-1 last week, imcluding 4-0 yesterday.
OKC +2 1/2
Lakers +2 1/2
Philly/Toronto over 204 1/2
Orlando +9

Only loss this week was Atlanta +1 and Charlotte. Which was a buzzer beater in OT. Atlanta had plenty of opportunities to win the game in regulation.

From that observation the Pelicans +5 1/2 looks like a play for me. I will take the Pelicans +5 1/2
 
Eri8923 said:
Absolutely. From a line movement standpoint, Vegas seems to want bets on the Cavs to cover. It's dropped 2 1/2 points with most bets coming in on the Cavs.

Betting in this manner was roughly 8-1 last week, imcluding 4-0 yesterday.
OKC +2 1/2
Lakers +2 1/2
Philly/Toronto over 204 1/2
Orlando +9

Only loss this week was Atlanta +1 and Charlotte. Which was a buzzer beater in OT. Atlanta had plenty of opportunities to win the game in regulation.

From that observation the Pelicans +5 1/2 looks like a play for me. I will take the Pelicans +5 1/2
Click to expand...

Great response!!
I appreciate the info/stats to back it up.....

Is this the first year you have tracked this?
curious if you did last year what the numbers look like?
 
Few thoughts on tonight's games:

LAC - SAS

Spurs come off two losses and now face a set of B2B on the road, against Clips and GSW. No one will fire Pop if he losses both, but I would assume that the last thing Spurs want is to chase HCA late in to regular season. They will try to win one of the games and obviously, this is their better chance.
Having said that, it's hard to believe that Spurs will win tonight's game, without scoring 100+ points.
Leans are Spurs ATS/ ML and Spurs TT Over

Cleveland - NO

Obviously anything can happen, but still, the line is correct here. Cleveland probably won't lose two home games in a row and the line is -6, because if it was -4 or lower, many wouldn't have even thought about ATS and would think that if Cleveland wins, they will cover as well.
-6 is not an easy number to bet against a good team on a rise.
Still, NO are young and with a lot of problems. People look on the win in SA, but forget that NO lost at home to the Mavs and on the road in Memphis. So far, the team that won SU in Pelicans games, covered as well.
Hunch says blowout win by the Cavs, but still... hoping for a point drop on the line to -5.

Chicago - Detroit

Detroit are lucky that Spurs, Clips and Cleveland look bad, so no one looking what happens in the bottom of the league and those that do look, notice mostly Lakers an Nuggets.
Detroit are 0 - 6 ATS, worst in the league (with the Clips) and SVG failed to make any difference, going back to the horrible line up with Smith as SF and Detroit still without a win in the fourth quarter (like last year).
I like SVG, but can't back them, especially after Bulls loss at home to Boston.
Easy skip here.

Knicks - Hawks

If the line would have been -3 on the Knicks, wouldn't have thought twice here and skipped the match. But are the Hawks really reached the level where they should be favorites in MSG???
I don't think so.
Knicks ML or nothing here for me.

Indiana - Utah

Anyone wants to bet on Utah on the road, playing B2B off a road win?
Sounds crazy, but the numbers say that in such spot, teams the last two seasons are 5 - 0 ATS and 4 - 1 SU...
Skip...
 
Cash, this is my first time following the line movement in the NBA. Probably have bet it 10-12 times. I haven't really looked too close at it still the middle of last week. Milwaukee and N.O hit Saturday. Then the 4 yesterday This week I am going to keep track of it. Will probably start a thread here shortly to see how it holds up this week.
 
TheCashMan said:
Anyone have a site they use for accurate starting lineups?

Ten before tip- used to post about 10 minutes before, including the late scratches??

nbastartingfive is not accurate....
Click to expand...

I use NBA Injury News on Twitter and others also Media reports on NBA.com but the NBA is famous for the last second games they play. How many times has a player who wasn't going to play last minute play and a player that wasn't going to play turn the TV on and there he is playing . But to find an accurate source of who's in and who's out I would pay for that.
 
Paulie The Vig said:
I use NBA Injury News on Twitter and others also Media reports on NBA.com but the NBA is famous for the last second games they play. How many times has a player who wasn't going to play last minute play and a player that wasn't going to play turn the TV on and there he is playing . But to find an accurate source of who's in and who's out I would pay for that.
Click to expand...

Ten before tip used to - it is/was from the nba
http://tbt.blogs.nba.com/


  • [h=2]TBT: TEN BEFORE TIP[/h]NBA.com has a reporter in every arena, scouring the locker rooms and hitting press row for all the latest news, notes and anecdotes leading up to tipoff. Ten Before Tip is your source for lineup scratches, injury updates and all last-minute info that could affect the outcome of the game.
    Every night, before every game, NBA.com’s writers will be filing short TBT blog posts directly from the arena, covering the latest storylines to keep you fully informed.
 
TheCashMan said:
Ten before tip used to - it is/was from the nba
http://tbt.blogs.nba.com/


  • TBT: TEN BEFORE TIP

    NBA.com has a reporter in every arena, scouring the locker rooms and hitting press row for all the latest news, notes and anecdotes leading up to tipoff. Ten Before Tip is your source for lineup scratches, injury updates and all last-minute info that could affect the outcome of the game.
    Every night, before every game, NBA.com’s writers will be filing short TBT blog posts directly from the arena, covering the latest storylines to keep you fully informed.
Click to expand...

Its likely this information gets to the books before it gets posted on this blog?
 
This is a number system that I used the last two years with some success but it was only put into effect after teams have played 10 games. At this point in time most teams have played 7 so this is for charting purpose's only but I do like one of the plays and may play it. It strictly spits Total's no sides.

Tonight would be

Over 188 Indy/Utah
Over 190.5 Detroit/Chicago
Under 203 SAS/Clips
 
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