Monday 03/17/14 NBA discussion thread

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The Spurs can suck my manhood
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[TD="colspan: 8"][h=4]NBA BASKETBALL BASKETBALL - MON 3/17[/h][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #000032, colspan: 4, align: center"]GAME[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]HANDICAP[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]MONEY LINE[/TD]
[TD="bgcolor: #000032, align: center"]TOTAL POINTS[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 3/17[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]501[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Philadelphia 76ers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+20 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 203 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]502[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Indiana Pacers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-20 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 203 1.952[/TD]
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[TR="class: linesAlt2"]
[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 3/17[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]503[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Atlanta Hawks[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]+3 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Over 200 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]04:05 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]504[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Charlotte Bobcats[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]-3 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Under 200 2.000[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 3/17[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]505[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Phoenix Suns[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 2.000[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 206.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]04:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]506[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Brooklyn Nets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.909[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 206.5 1.952[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Mon 3/17[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]511[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Boston Celtics[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Offline[/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]05:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]512[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Dallas Mavericks[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #C1D2EE"]Offline[/TD]
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[TD="class: linesDate, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Mon 3/17[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]513[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Los Angeles Clippers[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]-4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Over 221 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB, align: center"][/TD]
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[TD="bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]07:35 PM[/TD]
[TD="class: linesRotNumBold, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]514[/TD]
[TD="class: linesTeam, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Denver Nuggets[/TD]
[TD="class: linesScore, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesSpread, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]+4.5 1.952[/TD]
[TD="class: linesMLine, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"][/TD]
[TD="class: linesTotals, bgcolor: #E6EEFB"]Under 221 1.952[/TD]
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Also lean on nuggets but we have to be cautious on this one. yes every winning streak comes to an end sooner or later. In B2B, LAC has a negative record and is just 6-7SU. They could be tired, especially since game is in altitude in denver. What i don't like is Denver falls into BC's thread of 5+ road trips with jet lag from eastern trip +revenge factor for clippers that lost by 1 pt last time in denver. Would have prefered a 1 pt loss for denver. This is the main thing that's upsetting me.
But don't understand the line. I mean this game should be a pick-em or LAC-1/-2 max. 3 pts home field advantage for DEN + 1,5 pts worth of B2B fatigue for clippers.
Perhaps books are slightly over adjusting cause they are fed up to get hit by squares keep betting on CLippers huge winning sreak.
Other problem, DO we take DEN Moneyline or ATS.

To protect a little bit on this game might take the under, cause if clipps win it won't probably with a fast pace, run&gun style since B2B in denver. if game goes over, DEN should cover i think

Also slight lean on PHI +20 if i wake up tomorrow morning with good "cojones" Like Under IND-PHI and Under DEN-LAC.
 
I like Oklahoma tonight, as long as Westbrook is playing and they are not playing more than 4 points against Chicago. Thunder just can't any more losses, with Spurs ahead by two losses less and Clips behind with two losses more. Oklahoma still plays at home against the Spurs and plays in LA against the Clippers, so both options - first place and third place within reach.
I also really like Thunder match ups for this one. Bulls defense is best against P&R, but Durant usually plays isolation and I just doubt that Butler can do guard him for 40 minutes. DJ should really struggle defending Westbrook as well.
After playing 40+ minutes a game for a long stretch, last two blowouts (by Oklahoma and to Oklahoma) allowed him to play 30 and 34 minutes only and with Westbrook resting last night, both should be really ready to go tonight.
Just hoping that the line won't be too big.
 
I also like the Nets, but I think that maybe fading Suns isn't the smartest thing right now. They sounded like they are ready to quit, but with two road wins and Memphis losing in Toronto, they suddenly only one game behind Memphis and still have a home game against Grizzlies. Memphis owns the tie breaker here, so it's bad news for the Suns and I personally think they got really small chances making it to post season, but as long as they believe and fight for their lives, it's hard to lay points against them.
 
Don't get the Nuggets love here.
Clippers had this game wrapped after 3 quarters, so don't see any special fatigue problems for the Clips. Clippers are in similar spot as the Thunder. Two losses below 2 place and two losses above third place. They will face soon a very difficult road trip, including a game in Houston and to grab the three easy on paper wins, should be their top priority. Before playing in Houston, they got a game in Dallas, that will be their third in 4 days, so very hard game and the last thing they want to do is to come to Houston tired and tied (record wise).
Denver won in Denver, after Foye hit amazing and one in a million shot, with the clock running down. Doubt that Clippers forgot that feeling and will want to take a chance with another close game.
Also, 5 days of rest after Denver's game. Should leave everything on the floor...


Interesting to note, that with Crawford's injury, most of their bench is filled with newcomers - Davis, Hedo, Granger.
 
That and pretty big chalk are the main reasons I didn't take the Clips yet.
Denver would like nothing more than to spoil someone's run...
 
Tough trip for the Suns, Brooklyn playing well get the -3.5 now. talk about the Suns needing to keep winning so do the Nets.
 
Days of the week show that Over could be a good play in Houston and to a lesser extent, Under in Dallas.
 
Also, if I understand the SBQL correctly, Rockets off a loss, playing at home = Over
 
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[TD="class: SiteText, colspan: 2"]NBA | OKLAHOMA CITY at CHICAGO
Play On - Road teams (OKLAHOMA CITY) explosive offensive team (>=102 PPG) against an average offensive team (92-98 PPG) after 42+ games, after a blowout loss by 15 points or more
41-15 since 1997. ( 73.2% | 24.5 units )
3-1 this year. ( 75.0% | 1.9 units )
[/TD]
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[TD="class: SiteText, colspan: 2"]NBA | PHOENIX at BROOKLYN
Play On - Any team vs the money line (PHOENIX) revenging a straight up loss vs opponent as a favorite, off 2 or more consecutive road wins
189-92 since 1997. ( 67.3% | 66.8 units )
5-2 this year. ( 71.4% | 3.8 units )
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[TD="class: SiteText, colspan: 2"]NBA | PHOENIX at BROOKLYN
Play Under - All teams where the first half total is 100.5 to 105 tired team - playing 8 or more games in 14 days, in March games
136-76 over the last 5 seasons. ( 64.2% | 52.4 units )
20-12 this year. ( 62.5% | 6.8 units )[/TD]
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Don't know if Boston players care, but it's Ainge's birthday today (also Korver's)
 
That's true. The main question though, as always in any trend - does this mean that we should see a correction and WC home dogs in first game off road trip against WC teams will start to cover or this season is just bad for this trend...
 
Concerning OKC at Bulls
Look at OKC after beating Houston by 31 In both cases they lost 2 in a row ATS after the blowout
Look at OKC after Philadelphia by 33
Chicago by the way is 9-1 ATS recently after an ATS loss
Karmic aspect is clear. OKC did a miserable thing yesterday and should be punished. In their position they should play hard vs all playoff contenders. With the playoff race this tight they put up a soft line up vs Dallas
 
emkee said:
Generally a move like that, given the opening spread (-5) would warrant a play on the favorite.
Click to expand...


Phoenix is everyone's favorite and rightfully so playing great this year but it's a 3 game 4 night starting at Boston then to Toronto and back to Brooklyn. Brooklyn let that Washington game get away from them that was there bad different game tonight after a day off thinking about it.

Brooklyn, Denver, Boston tonight. Just one man's opinion.
 
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