MLB Futures Discussion

aplous

aplous

Donkey Hater
Headed to Vegas in a couple of weeks and I like to get down a couple of RSW's or futures. Anyone have strong opinions?

AL East Win Totals

  • Yankees 95.5
  • Blue Jays 92.5
  • Red Sox 77.5
  • Rays 88.5
  • Orioles 76.5
AL Central Win Totals

  • Guardians 87.5
  • White Sox 84.5
  • Twins 82.5
  • Tigers 69.5
  • Royals 68.5
AL West Win Totals

  • Astros 96.5
  • Mariners 88.5
  • Rangers 82.5
  • Angels 80.5
  • Athletics 59.5

NL East Win Totals

  • Mets 95.5
  • Braves 95.5
  • Phillies 88.5
  • Marlins 74.5
  • Nationals 60.5
NL Central Win Totals

  • Cardinals 89.5
  • Brewers 85.5
  • Cubs 77.5
  • Pirates 66.5
  • Reds 64.5
NL West Win Totals

  • Dodgers 96.5
  • Padres 93.5
  • Giants 80.5
  • Diamondbacks 75.5
  • Rockies 67.5
 
aplous said:
Arizona is 74.5 at my local. Kind of like them and the new schedule will help them, less games v LAD and SD.

Looking at Acuna for NL MVP....10-1 to 12-1 range
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Snakes' natural rival for interleague is the Rangers this year, think they go back and forth w/Astros, same as Rockies although with this schedule that only means an extra game now against natural rivals compared to the rest of the interleague schedule
 
GWarner27 said:
what's different?

i'd love for repeat series not to happen each week and for the entire final month to not be divisional games
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The # of games vs Division opponents goes from 76 to 52.

Interleague goes from 20 ish to 46.

First time ever that teams will play the entire 29 in a season.
 
B.A.R. said:
Instead of 16-20 vs division, it's now 13 (7-6 home breakdowns).

This is SO much better.

As far as the rest of your particular league, that's mostly the same (mid 60s).
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Gives the locals a little more hope, reducing exposure to LA and SD
 
The Ray's are perennially my favorite team to play overs on. To me they have one of biggest home field advantages because it's such a dump. I think extra games vs teams interleague should help their hfa with more unfamiliar opponents.

I also used this for betting A's overs but really hard to bet them this year.

Maybe this is stupid and has no basis to it. But just a dumb theory of mine.
 
CPA-hole said:
The Ray's are perennially my favorite team to play overs on. To me they have one of biggest home field advantages because it's such a dump. I think extra games vs teams interleague should help their hfa with more unfamiliar opponents.

I also used this for betting A's overs but really hard to bet them this year.

Maybe this is stupid and has no basis to it. But just a dumb theory of mine.
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like the rays section, but want no part of OAK overs until they leave that cavernous park
 
I don’t ever play the win totals, too impatient, I won’t even play the plus odd futures unless we talking 20-1 or better and I’ll usually play more WS futures around the all star break cause can usually find a couple teams that had lackluster 1st halves but I still like at good odds. My rule on these is I’m basically just looking for teams I think got a good shot at getting to the playoffs getting 25-1 or better. After all once you get in anything can happen!

I like seattle but 19-1 rather wait, maybe they struggle at some point and there a better number, love the pitching staff.

The 2 I think gonna throw 50 bucks at 2marro, don’t love them or the fact they both in the same division so that all I’m willing to risk.

Twins +3500
Chisox +4000

Obviously they both not getting in playoffs,
most likely anyways (like both my teams did last year!) but I do think either one these guys could overtake clevland, nothing against the guardians as much as I just like things bout both these 2.

CWS should gain 5-10 wins just by firing TLR! They lost Abreu but they got another exciting young Cuban player coming up on a team full of Cubans so the transition shouldn’t be too tough. The depth isn’t great but they kinda due for some health luck, nothing wrong w a rotation anchored by Lance lynn and Cease! They need Giolito to be a lot better but we know he capable, clevenger needs to regain the form he had before leaving this division for sunny Cali, but there a ton of potential in this staff for 40-1, enough offense if they stay healthy, and the pen should be solid. Just don’t see much more value than this on the board.

If there is a better value it the twins at 35-1, fangraphs says they over a 40% chance to make the playoffs, as mentioned that all I’m looking for the rest is up to the baseball gods to get me far enough to have options, doubt I’d hedge w just a $50 bet but I might go all in the opposite way! I’ve always been a big fan of Pablo Lopez, few years ago when twins came out of nowhere and made the playoffs their pitching was suspect at best, now with a little health luck this rotation could be really good. Speaking of health it be nice if Buxton could stay healthy a full year, the concerns with Correa health was fortunate for twins as that only reason he back, teams handing out crazy contracts were worried bout the health for a 10 year deal, I got news for these teams, 10 year deals for 28-30 year olds never gonna end well, so twins got a WS caliber SS and only had to do a way more sensible 6 year deal! There nothing wrong w this lineup, if the pitching holds up i think this team wins the central.

These the only 2 I see myself playing before the start. The reason I’m not wanting to wait on them is I think one could jump out and grab ahold the division early then these odds be long gone.
 
Im trying to talk myself into reds at 200-1, maybe 20 bucks! Lol. I have no clue if they can score runs, no idea how much depth they have after their top 3 pitchers, all I know is this division ain’t that good and reds got 3 crazy talented young starters. I know that not enough but those 3 starters are legit.

On the other hand cubs at +9000 makes some sense. They easily have the 2nd best lineup in the central, their pitching could end up being as good as cardinals. Brewers have the best pitching, reds have the 3 front end youngsters to match but not much after, pirates are still some time away although like some their youngsters. Cardinals lineup could be really good if the youngsters are as advertised but I don’t trust our pitching at all. This division could be winnable for scrubbies at cRaxy high price. Brewers can’t hit and have weakened their pen, they closer to selling off pitchers than winning a ship. If cardinals pitching falls apart im not sure brewers automatically take the division, cubs could be the team to step in. I think cards lineup, depth, and willingness to go get some middling veterans if needed to bolster staff will probably be enough but betting on offense isn’t usually cards way.
 
I guess I could understand a case for angels but they are at best the 3rd best team in the west yet not getting much better odds than the 2 above. I def see 2 teams coming out the west but no way 3, their lineup could be scary if they stay healthy but seattle and houston pitching is just light years better, you could say rangers too but odds any those guys pitch 20+ games ain’t good!
 
I also didn’t play any win totals. Settled on Barves to win NL east at about +105 average and Pads to win NL west around the same.

Lean Barves 10-1 to win WS but passing for now
 
aplous said:
Headed to Vegas in a couple of weeks and I like to get down a couple of RSW's or futures. Anyone have strong opinions?

AL East Win Totals

  • Yankees 95.5
  • Blue Jays 92.5
  • Red Sox 77.5
  • Rays 88.5
  • Orioles 76.5
AL Central Win Totals

  • Guardians 87.5
  • White Sox 84.5
  • Twins 82.5
  • Tigers 69.5
  • Royals 68.5
AL West Win Totals

  • Astros 96.5
  • Mariners 88.5
  • Rangers 82.5
  • Angels 80.5
  • Athletics 59.5

NL East Win Totals

  • Mets 95.5
  • Braves 95.5
  • Phillies 88.5
  • Marlins 74.5
  • Nationals 60.5
NL Central Win Totals

  • Cardinals 89.5
  • Brewers 85.5
  • Cubs 77.5
  • Pirates 66.5
  • Reds 64.5
NL West Win Totals

  • Dodgers 96.5
  • Padres 93.5
  • Giants 80.5
  • Diamondbacks 75.5
  • Rockies 67.5
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With all the rule and changes starting this season the two, one from each League, that stand out the most are Cleveland over 87.5 and Washington under 60.5.

Cleveland plays in the worst division, less games, but picks up scrubs from the NL to clear the listed mark.

Washington is, no other to put it, a very bad MLB team that is going to be that way for the next couple seasons minimum.
 
2daBank said:
Im trying to talk myself into reds at 200-1, maybe 20 bucks! Lol. I have no clue if they can score runs, no idea how much depth they have after their top 3 pitchers, all I know is this division ain’t that good and reds got 3 crazy talented young starters. I know that not enough but those 3 starters are legit.

On the other hand cubs at +9000 makes some sense. They easily have the 2nd best lineup in the central, their pitching could end up being as good as cardinals. Brewers have the best pitching, reds have the 3 front end youngsters to match but not much after, pirates are still some time away although like some their youngsters. Cardinals lineup could be really good if the youngsters are as advertised but I don’t trust our pitching at all. This division could be winnable for scrubbies at cRaxy high price. Brewers can’t hit and have weakened their pen, they closer to selling off pitchers than winning a ship. If cardinals pitching falls apart im not sure brewers automatically take the division, cubs could be the team to step in. I think cards lineup, depth, and willingness to go get some middling veterans if needed to bolster staff will probably be enough but betting on offense isn’t usually cards way.
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I'm a believer and investor in the Cards this year across the board (Div, NL, WS) and Walker ROY (and a nibble on MVP). What could go wrong but I think all of their prices are a hair short (in particular Division and NL).
 
PaintCrew said:
I'm a believer and investor in the Cards this year across the board (Div, NL, WS) and Walker ROY (and a nibble on MVP). What could go wrong but I think all of their prices are a hair short (in particular Division and NL).
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They prob win the central, I mean it not like they have much standing in the way. just trying to find some gems, I think cardinals offense could be really good but the pitching is pretty shaky, it could fall apart and wouldn’t shock me at all. They would most likely go out and find some vets on their last legs they somehow squeeze a little more decent baseball out of if that happened. It just tough to see them going far in playoffs unless some things happen w the pitching im not confident In. They need Flaherty to be back healthy and resemble the guy he was that one half a season he was dominant, lol. They need Matz to be healthy, waino already hurt and super old, these guys might be able to get them thru regular season with our lineup and pen should be solid, I don’t see them winning a playoff series vs teams w aces tho, hope I’m wrong.
 
2daBank said:
They prob win the central, I mean it not like they have much standing in the way. just trying to find some gems, I think cardinals offense could be really good but the pitching is pretty shaky, it could fall apart and wouldn’t shock me at all. They would most likely go out and find some vets on their last legs they somehow squeeze a little more decent baseball out of if that happened. It just tough to see them going far in playoffs unless some things happen w the pitching im not confident In. They need Flaherty to be back healthy and resemble the guy he was that one half a season he was dominant, lol. They need Matz to be healthy, waino already hurt and super old, these guys might be able to get them thru regular season with our lineup and pen should be solid, I don’t see them winning a playoff series vs teams w aces tho, hope I’m wrong.
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They may not but IMO the price is more than right based on roster construction and like you said the complete waste of teams this year in that division puts them in a wildly advantageous place to roll the dice in the playoffs vs their current pricing.
 
Trea Turner to win MVP 10-1
Matt Olson MVP 25-1
Framber AL Cy Young 20-1

Marlins to finish 4th 2-1
Yoshida AL Roy 6-1
 
PaintCrew said:
And yeah the key bet is the central overall. Just taking profit from that and rolling it on.
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I don’t see brewers garbage lineup being that tough to beat, they have had those 3 starters and havnt done shit, now the team around them is falling off imo. They all swing and miss and not like they stacked w 30+ hr guys. Mfers already stranding runners all over, 161 more games of that ain’t winning baseball.

If anyone challenges them I think it the cubs and their starting pitching has lot of question marks also, no clue bout cubs pen. Seems like the easiest division to win.

My goal is usually the same as yours w the WS futures, just get my team to playoffs and cards path is gravy. Had they been 25-1 like last year when I took them I woulda did it again. I assume I’ll be able to still get them at 18–1 later in year if I want.
 
PaintCrew said:
I'm a believer and investor in the Cards this year across the board (Div, NL, WS) and Walker ROY (and a nibble on MVP). What could go wrong but I think all of their prices are a hair short (in particular Division and NL).
Click to expand...
I added them WS on Tuesday.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t see brewers garbage lineup being that tough to beat, they have had those 3 starters and havnt done shit, now the team around them is falling off imo. They all swing and miss and not like they stacked w 30+ hr guys. Mfers already stranding runners all over, 161 more games of that ain’t winning baseball.

If anyone challenges them I think it the cubs and their starting pitching has lot of question marks also, no clue bout cubs pen. Seems like the easiest division to win.

My goal is usually the same as yours w the WS futures, just get my team to playoffs and cards path is gravy. Had they been 25-1 like last year when I took them I woulda did it again. I assume I’ll be able to still get them at 18–1 later in year if I want.
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Got a kick out of Bassitt's quote after yesterday.

“I’ve never had a game in my career where six different pitches are getting hit hard,” said Bassitt, a 15-game winner with the Mets in 2022. “I tip my hat to that lineup. It’s a great lineup.”
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PaintCrew said:
Got a kick out of Bassitt's quote after yesterday.
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I don’t think books have quite adjusted to the new look cards driven by offense. I thought yesterdays total of 7.5 with it being a pretty nice day and strong wind blowing out was silly. Opening at 8 today wasn’t any better imo. Cards managed to rough up 2 of jays top 3 pitchers, gausman was really good, they managed to spray 7-8 hits on him but only reason cards scored was a error.

Gausman is better than Morton at this age imo. It’s warning up even more today, probably be bout same when sun goes down but another helping wind out, I have no doubt cards can score some runs vs Morton. On the other side I got no doubt Braves will score runs off Woodford who I don’t even think is a legit big league starter.. this game screams both teams scoring 4+ imo. I played cards Ff ov 1.5 runs and the game over 8.5, missed the 8, don’t think it matters.
 
2daBank said:
I don’t think books have quite adjusted to the new look cards driven by offense. I thought yesterdays total of 7.5 with it being a pretty nice day and strong wind blowing out was silly. Opening at 8 today wasn’t any better imo. Cards managed to rough up 2 of jays top 3 pitchers, gausman was really good, they managed to spray 7-8 hits on him but only reason cards scored was a error.

Gausman is better than Morton at this age imo. It’s warning up even more today, probably be bout same when sun goes down but another helping wind out, I have no doubt cards can score some runs vs Morton. On the other side I got no doubt Braves will score runs off Woodford who I don’t even think is a legit big league starter.. this game screams both teams scoring 4+ imo. I played cards Ff ov 1.5 runs and the game over 8.5, missed the 8, don’t think it matters.
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i'm on STL O3.5 so with ya.... I think you are selling woodford short a bit on the not a big league starter deal but sure don't want a piece of him here against this braves lineup. Settled on focusing on the books which i think will take a bit to catch up to this lineup on the other side of the ball.
 
PaintCrew said:
i'm on STL O3.5 so with ya.... I think you are selling woodford short a bit on the not a big league starter deal but sure don't want a piece of him here against this braves lineup. Settled on focusing on the books which i think will take a bit to catch up to this lineup on the other side of the ball.
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I’m pretty confident he only in rotation cause waino on IL. I really don’t think he a starter, even out the pen we talking bout a guy around 6k per 9 and over 3 walks, not a great recipe for success. I’d like to be sotmg but I don’t see it. I certainly don’t expect he gonna be able to handle Braves lineup a few times around.
 
I don’t usually bite at a number this low but I think this probably about as good it ever gonna be. I been shooting my mouth off for a few days that I thought the trip to Mexico was potentially just what the pads offense needed. They certainly hit in that park and then I thought they looked much better the 1st game back home, a game they coulda easily been hung over on tequila! Hopefully im right on the timing here but I think these guys are about to take off and we will never see these numbers again. The dodgers are actually favored right now to win the west, I just don’t see it! Unless Mets get really lucky with their old pitchers or Philly gets healthy I really think the NL turns out to be a 2 horse race between Braves and pads who have by far the best 2 lineups imo, thing is we getting double the value on San Diego thanks to the slow start.,

Padres to win WS 10-1
Padres to win NL +475


I think there great value in SD +120 to win the nl west also im just not wanting to tie up as much it would take to be worth it this early. I rather invest what im willing to wait on in the bigger odds!! Some would say this a weakness of mine but that ok, im a go for it kinda guy!! Lol. If you not like me and have the extra money laying around I do think it a good investment.
 
So now I have these

Twins WS 35-1
Pads WS 10-1
Pads nl +475

And who could forget

White Sox WS 40-1

Twins are down to 20-1 and I think the clear fav to win the Al central, that the good. The embarrassing if you were so inclined yoi could get white Sox at +20,000!! Lmfao. I wouldn’t suggest doing that. They gonna turn out to be the worst future I ever bet! I knew betting 2 teams in same division one probably wouldn’t work out but FUCK, I didn’t expect the bet to be dead after a month! Lol
 
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