MLB August-September-October

PirateAlew said:
Was asked on a forum why Guardians---Thoughts on the Guardians? Could be a tough matchup

Here's why:

for me its like this. Eovaldi is 0-3, 7.20 in his last three starts. Bibee is 3-1, 1.98 in his last five starts (Guards 7-3 last 10 bibee starts). Bibee also owns Texas hitters, posting a 1.62 ERA in three starts vs Texas. The guards have consistently scored runs, averaging 4.55 runs and 7.86 hits per game, with a team BA of .238 and an OBP of .308. Clev is also very good in the field, maintaining a +75 run differential, while limiting opponents to an average of 3.95 runs and 7.67 hits per game. The Rangers are BRUTALLY bad in road openers. 3-14 last road openers. I would not rush to the window to back the rangers, in fact, all the reasons above, is why I put my faith in Clev. All the #'s and H2H, with this situation point to a bounceback win for Clev.
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Always informative info PA 👍🏼
 
thanks bud, glad I can help some people. I like people to get some insight into how I approach games from the data aspect but also situational analysis, having played the games years ago, with a few college friends and a couple relatives lucky enough to make it their profession.

I just got a question about the NCAAF Total Saturday...

You don’t think FSU and GT both traveling to Dublin for the game will affect the over 55?


Not in this case. Only if they flew over today or yesterday. They've been there a few days practicing. they are more than adjusted, and these are 20 year old kids. I traveled accoss the globe for work weekly for 15 years, jet lag is a pain but in my 20's, it was nothing, i was adjusted the next day. These kids will have been over there about 4-5 days when game time comes around and already climatized, and ready for the conditions. The 18ish months of preparation helped the team largely limit the effects of jet lag, practicing Thursday and Friday afternoon ahead of Saturday's game.

Obviously traveling over, there are a lot of dynamics that go into making sure we get adjusted, I thought our players did a great job there," FSU head coach Mike Norvell said in a press conference after Friday's practice. "We were able to get out there and practice (Thursday), practice (Friday), guys are looking good. They handled all elements of the travel well.

In order to help combat jet lag, FSU kept all its players up until 9 p.m. on Thursday, allowing them to explore the city a bit. That time also led to the FSU head coach getting quite a few compliments about how well his team has treated the fans who want to meet them.

the bottom statement i found from FSU coach. GT coach echoed similar thoughts, they got there a few days ago as well to prep.






 
PirateAlew said:
thanks bud, glad I can help some people. I like people to get some insight into how I approach games from the data aspect but also situational analysis, having played the games years ago, with a few college friends and a couple relatives lucky enough to make it their profession.

I just got a question about the NCAAF Total Saturday...

You don’t think FSU and GT both traveling to Dublin for the game will affect the over 55?


Not in this case. Only if they flew over today or yesterday. They've been there a few days practicing. they are more than adjusted, and these are 20 year old kids. I traveled accoss the globe for work weekly for 15 years, jet lag is a pain but in my 20's, it was nothing, i was adjusted the next day. These kids will have been over there about 4-5 days when game time comes around and already climatized, and ready for the conditions. The 18ish months of preparation helped the team largely limit the effects of jet lag, practicing Thursday and Friday afternoon ahead of Saturday's game.

Obviously traveling over, there are a lot of dynamics that go into making sure we get adjusted, I thought our players did a great job there," FSU head coach Mike Norvell said in a press conference after Friday's practice. "We were able to get out there and practice (Thursday), practice (Friday), guys are looking good. They handled all elements of the travel well.

In order to help combat jet lag, FSU kept all its players up until 9 p.m. on Thursday, allowing them to explore the city a bit. That time also led to the FSU head coach getting quite a few compliments about how well his team has treated the fans who want to meet them.

the bottom statement i found from FSU coach. GT coach echoed similar thoughts, they got there a few days ago as well to prep.
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Absolutely I love game info, insight
 
PirateAlew said:
Another good day, let's keep the train moving...

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Guardians-129
⭐️Astros-112
⭐️Yankees-1-135 (F5)
⭐️Cubs-118
⭐️Twins-138
⭐️Reds+105
⭐️Yanks/Rocks Over 8-115
⭐️Braves-1-129 (F5)
⭐️Detroit-140
⭐️Arizona/Boston Over 9.5-110
⭐️Royals-133
⭐️Dodgers-1-130
⭐️Mariners-134
⭐️Toronto-1-131
⭐️Oakland+118
Arizona+115
Mets+125
Yankees Team Total Over 5
Reds+100 (F5)
Royals Team Total Over 4.5-105
Royals/Phils Over 9-115
Astros/Orioles Over 8-128
Braves-1.5-120
Dodgers/Rays Over 8.5-120
Cincy/Shittsburgh Over 8-120
Cubs/Marlin Over 8-115
Braves/Nats Over 7-125
LAA/Toronto Over 8-115
Milwaukee/Oakland UNDER 8-120

NFL Preaseason
⭐️Actionville Jaguars-7
Miami+3
Tampa/Miami UNDER 37.5

NCAAF Sat
⭐️FSU/GT Over 55
⭐️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112
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Help me understand the star system/top plays.

Are they always 2x or 3x your normal plays?

Or do the top plays also vary with top top being 3x and then somewhere they switch to 2x since you say they are ordered by strength?

Do you wager to win a unit on each bet or do you just wager a unit per bet? For example, favorites bet as $110 to win $100 or $100 to win say $90?

Thanks for the clarity.
 
mogo said:
Help me understand the star system/top plays.

Are they always 2x or 3x your normal plays?

Or do the top plays also vary with top top being 3x and then somewhere they switch to 2x since you say they are ordered by strength?

Do you wager to win a unit on each bet or do you just wager a unit per bet? For example, favorites bet as $110 to win $100 or $100 to win say $90?

Thanks for the clarity.
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Generally top plays are 3-5 units, with some cases as high as 10units on the #1 and 2 when things are going good. They are ordered by strength so my #1 might be 8 units and the bottom top play listed would be 3. Regular plays are .25-3 units. I wager based on risking a unit, so 100 to win 90 per your example.
 
PirateAlew said:
Generally top plays are 3-5 units, with some cases as high as 10units on the #1 and 2 when things are going good. They are ordered by strength so my #1 might be 8 units and the bottom top play listed would be 3. Regular plays are .25-3 units. I wager based on risking a unit, so 100 to win 90 per your example.
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Thank you for the information.

I'll be following this system closely. 🤝
 
***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Arizona/Boston Over 9.5 played above with Nic Lentz who rates at 4.27 in the moderate hitter friendly cat. He may be an odd choice at first glance with a 10-11 O/U and 9 runs per game but he is issuing far more walks and less K's which translates to runs. His SO/BB ratio is a very low 2.07 and a low 62.9% strikes, when his games go over, it's typically 10-14 runs. His last game was also with these Dbags, and it was an 11-1 game, his runs initiated was 2 that game and his avg is 1.5. With the total at 9.5, Nic should aid in issuing more walks and less K's, with the dbacks avg 5.3 runs, and Bello giving up 5.81 runs at home, the dbacks should easily get to their avg, while Boston avgs 5 runs a game, Ariz gives up 4.7. The over is 23-7 for the sox, 19-5 for Ariz. and 9-2 in Nelson's starts and 8-1 in Bello Starts. All things point to the over.
 
PirateAlew said:
thanks guys, i guess fade posts are still allowed here, interesting...

Knew I forgot one....

⭐️Orioles-144

correct order:
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Brewers-119
⭐️Yankees-1-112
⭐️Pirates-132
⭐️Cubs-1-128
⭐️Phillies+101
⭐️Nationals-116
⭐️Orioles-144
⭐️Tampa-112
⭐️Mets Team Total Over 3
⭐️Nats/Rocks Over 8.5-120 (Umpire Over-Jordan Baker-15-8 Over/9.5 Runs)
Mets+144
Yankees-0.5-120
Angels+1.5-130
Baltimore/Houston over 7.5-125
Brewers/Cards Over 7.5-115
Yankees/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Ump Over-Derek Thomas-13-7 Over/10.10 runs/low 62%K/2.2 SO/BB)

Astros Team Total Over 3.5-108
Nats Team Total Over 4
Angels/Jays Over 8.5-120
Phils/Braves UNDER 8.5-115

NFL Preseason=2-1 Last (cashed top play)
Bears ML-115
Colts-6.5
Colts/Bengals Under 35
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You have typo on Cubs. They re not minus 1 run. The line is ML-125.
We match on several. BOL today!
 
Reds changed pitcher to Buck Farmer from Abbott, same plan, just a slightly different price. Farmer might actually be better than Abbott right now and better in this spot as his splits are good, even though he's not typically a distance guy. These situations often benefit the team making the last min change as hitters prepared for one pitcher, and now they're dealing with Farmer+handful of reds pen earlier. The Reds are 8-3 last 11 road games and are fighting hard for the playoffs. The Pirates are 4-13 last 17 games and 4-10 when Falter starts. I'll stay with the team fighting harder and in better form. Same w/ the smaller F5 bet.

⭐️Reds+110
 
PirateAlew said:
Reds changed pitcher to Buck Farmer from Abbott, same plan, just a slightly different price. Farmer might actually be better than Abbott right now and better in this spot as his splits are good, even though he's not typically a distance guy. These situations often benefit the team making the last min change as hitters prepared for one pitcher, and now they're dealing with Farmer+handful of reds pen earlier. The Reds are 8-3 last 11 road games and are fighting hard for the playoffs. The Pirates are 4-13 last 17 games and 4-10 when Falter starts. I'll stay with the team fighting harder and in better form. Same w/ the smaller F5 bet.

⭐️Reds+110
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Yep. My book has Farmer 'even' listed as well.
 
G-Man said:
Yep. My book has Farmer 'even' listed as well.
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According the Reds press about mid day, Abbott was placed on IL. Probably sprained his wrist in his hotel room last night HAHA!

***2nd Umpire Over is Braves/Nats Over 7 (Played above)-w/Adrian Johnson who is 15-7 Over, on a high 11 runs per game and a low 2.06 SO/BB Ratio with 63% strikes. Like Fletcher, this guy squeezes pitchers especially in run scoring situations. I like the over more with AJ behind the plate. The over is 12-3 for the Nats when Gore starts and 5-2 for Braves last 7 when Sale starts.
 
***1st Umpire UNDER is Minn/STL UNDER 9-120 with Rob Drake who comes in at an amazingly tiny 6.83 runs, a whopping 16-7 UNDER as a result due to a near 3 SO/BB ratio, 65% strikes and run scoring stiuations, Drake is notorious for squeezing the hitter and giving the 50/50 calls to the pitcher. I could stop right there but the situation points to the U, with the cards struggling to piece together runs, scoring a low 4.1 runs per, good for 24th, and while Twins have a formidable 1-9 they have only scored more than 5 runs once in the last 9. Festa has dominated in August posting arespectable 2.83 ERA his last 2, along with TwIns are 4-0 unders this week, cards 6-3 under, so runs scoring chances should be scarce tonight. Drake should help these pitchers look better than their ERA is currently. This guy is the Pitcher's equivalent of an Andy Fletcher.I learned the hard way a long time ago with this guy, dont bet an over with him working
 
Of course, the one guy I praise tonight Bibee and he decides to bomb against a team he's pitched well against. Guess they had a good report on him this time..

⭐️Tampa/LA Dodgers Over 8-120
 
phantom888 said:
Nice call on Dodger over, didn’t play it, but Shohei is a stud
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thank you, it was funny cause i saw Bebbe blow up in the early game, so I loaded up more on dodgers and mariners later, and dodgers over that i added. Well, an hour in i was mad, thought the night went to shit with mariners down 3-0 and dodgers too. Went upstairs with wife, went to bed mad and woke up surprised to see +++ in the account, checked the results and all was good....good to see that and wake up to some late winners with Dodgers, and Mariners...a good friday, hope we keep rolling thru the weekend.
 
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.
⭐️Brewers-124
⭐️Giants+105
⭐️Houston-118
⭐️Arizona/Boston Over 9-125 (Umpire Over-Scott Barry/9.7 Runs/low 62%K/1.99 SO/BB)
⭐️Cleveland-117
⭐️Royals+103
⭐️Dodgers-1-128
⭐️Yanks-1.5-120
⭐️Padres-144
⭐️Toronto-152
⭐️Nationals Team Total Over 3.5-105 (Nats scored 6 or more L3 Morton Gms/10.97 ERA vs Wash)
⭐️Tigers-1.5-128
⭐️Twins-135
⭐️Pirates+105
⭐️Yanks/Rocks Over 8.5-125
⭐️Arizona+106
Washington+1.5-130
Toronto Team Total Over 4.5-115
Giants+100 (F5)
Toronto-0.5-120 (F5)
Marlins+1.5-118
Padres/Mets Over 7-128 (Umpire Over-Mike Muchlinski/10.5 Runs/64% K/10 Runs in 2023)
Royals/Phils Over 9-130
Nationals/Braves Over 8-115
Tigers-0.5-140 (F5)
Brewers-120 (F5)
Giants/Mariners Over 6.5-115
Tigers Team Total Over 4.5-125
Dodgers-0.5-130 (F5)
Houston-120 (F5)
Cleveland/Texas Over 7.5-125
Twins/Cards Over 7.5-115

NCAAF Sat
⭐️FSU/GT Over 55
⭐️SMU-24-115
FSU-10-112

NFL Preseason Sat
⭐️Packers-2.5
⭐️Detroit+7
Vikings+2.5
Cowgirls-3.5
Bills+4.5
Browns ML-115
Vikings/Eagles Over 33.5

Great week, let's keep it going through the weekend...
 
Not usually a fan of chalk spreads, especially over 28 but I'll make an exception. D state is one of the worst teams in FCS, they allowed 62 and 57 against the 2 FBS teams they played. Add to the fact they had travel issues to HNL, and got in a day late. Now these are 18-21 year old kids so jet lag is usually fixed in 24 hours, assuming they dont go sight see/party/study, etc. Hawaii is a distracting place, I love Waikiki myself. I see Hawaii controlling both lines of scrimmage, the only worry is them taking the foot off the gas 4th qtr but they could easily be up 50+ at that point.

Hawaii-39-117
 
Stop bickering. We‘re not having it. Nobody wants to read this shit. Pirate isn’t posting a record, so we‘re all good. Let‘s all benefit from Pirate‘s capping and willingness to discuss the games. Support each other and hopefully win some money, don‘t come in with bullshit.
 
PirateAlew said:
Not usually a fan of chalk spreads, especially over 28 but I'll make an exception. D state is one of the worst teams in FCS, they allowed 62 and 57 against the 2 FBS teams they played. Add to the fact they had travel issues to HNL, and got in a day late. Now these are 18-21 year old kids so jet lag is usually fixed in 24 hours, assuming they dont go sight see/party/study, etc. Hawaii is a distracting place, I love Waikiki myself. I see Hawaii controlling both lines of scrimmage, the only worry is them taking the foot off the gas 4th qtr but they could easily be up 50+ at that point.

Hawaii-39-117
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I’m not playing this but Hawaii Coach Timmy Chang is former player and not the type to run up scores. Unless D St contributes to Hawaii’s scoring, I think it’ll be close to the number. He’ll empty the bench and work in his run game late, but if D St can’t stop the run, well….Good luck!
 
thanks man, at least MLB+NFL was great, week 0 was an ofer.

“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Mets/Padres Over 8.5-105 (Umpire OVER-Andy Fletcher/22-3 OVER/13 RUNS PER)
⭐️Braves-1-125
⭐️Royals-120
⭐️Brewers-123
⭐️Toronto-1-107
⭐️Cleveland-118
⭐️Astros-109
⭐️Cubs-0.5-115 (F5)
⭐️Cardinals+119
⭐️Pittsburgh+100
⭐️Yankees-1.5-130
⭐️Tigers-133
⭐️Arizona+120
⭐️Baltimore/Houston over 8-120 (Umpire Over-Ripperger/18-9 Over/10Runs per/2.4 SO/BB)
⭐️Cincy/Pitt Over 8.5-112
Dodgers-1-129
Padres-115
Arizona/Boston Over 9-125 (Umpire Over-Barksdale-17-10 Over/9.5 Runs, low 2.1 SO/BB/62%K)
Yankees/Rockies Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over-Mahrley-14-8 Over/9.6 Runs/2.4 SO/BB/63%K)
Toronto Team Total Over 4
Giants+133
Braves-0.5-120 (F5)
Brewers-118 (F5)
Cubs-154 (Full-game)
Toronto-0.5-110 (F5)
Cubs Team Total Over 4.5
Yankees-0.5-110 (F5)
Tigers Team Total Over 4.5
Philly/KC UNDER 10-115 (Umpire UNDER-Ben May/15-9 UNDER/8runs/high 2.76 SO/BB/64.5%K)
Brewers/A's UNDER 8.5-115

NFL
⭐️Denver-3
⭐️Commanders+7-115
Titans-4-114
Titans/Saints UNDER 37.5-110

Happy Andy Fletcher day again. He's the UMP in SD/Mets game, had that total right 8-9 before the umpire news. Andy is always good for a few runs late and the over is on a tear with this guy. 22-3 over for Fletcher, and if you've followed me long enough, we've been riding Andy since May, on a huge run of overs this summer...

Sorry, no time for writeups today, kids football this morning and other stuff. Happy to answer questions if i can.
 
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Nice way to close out sunday with astos and the overs..

Went ahead and played one over night for the early game

⭐️Royals-116 (Game 1)

Rest in AM...
 
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Yankees-1-140
⭐️Twins-110
⭐️Phillies-149
⭐️Royals-116 (Game 1)
⭐️Toronto/Boston Over 8.5-125
⭐️Cardinals-110
⭐️Mariners-122
⭐️Pirates-109
⭐️Royals/Guardians Over 7.5-125 (Game 2)
⭐️Miami-109
⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9-115
⭐️Mariners/Rays Over 6.5-128
Pirates/Cubs Over 8-120
Phillies-0.5-120 (F5)
Cards/Padres Over 9-130
Royals-124 (F5) (Game 1)
Tigers-130
Twins/Braves Over 7.5-115
Pirates Team Total Over 4
Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)
KC Royals-101 (Game 2)
Toronto+0.5-105 (F5)
Marlins Team Total Over 5
Yankees Team Total Over 5
Toronto+143

Good day sunday, great for umpire overs minus fletcher. His first game all year under 7 runs, expect his next game to be lit with runs. HA!
Back later with umpire assignments. Guy for Clev game 1 is not good (Chris Conroy)
 
***1st Umpire Over is ⭐️Washington/New York Over 8.5-125 with Dan Bellino, 14-10 Over, 10.28 runs, 2.5 SO/BB Ratio. The matchup points to an over here as well with Cortes and yanks 6-1 Over in his starts. The Yanks average 5.1 runs per game, which ranks 2nd while Nats are 24th in runs allowed at 4.7. Yankees should easily blow past their average here and I expect the nats to get a couple from the yanks late.
 
***2nd Umpire Over is Twins/Braves Over 7.5 (played above) with Mark Wegner who is 15-11 Over, on 9.81 Runs per, a low 2.2 SO/BB and low 62.8 K. I had this game getting to 8-9 runs but think this could go higher with Wegner calling the balls and strikes.
 
BabyFaceAssassin said:
No Andy Fletcher tonight lol
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no just some immitations. HA!

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9 with Brian Walsh who is only a 2 year ump but has gone over more than not both year, this year he's 15-12 Over, on 9.2 runs, while last year over 9 runs and 9-6 over. His games tend to be more high scoring than avg, and his avg Run initated is 1.5 per game, with a few games over 2 and one at 3.6 runs. This matchup pts to an over as tigers are mashing this series avg 9 runs thru first 3 this series, Madden is making his major league debut so expect a few runs from Chicago while Detroit could hit the over themselves again.
 
PirateAlew said:
no just some immitations. HA!

***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Tigers/White Sox Over 9 with Brian Walsh who is only a 2 year ump but has gone over more than not both year, this year he's 15-12 Over, on 9.2 runs, while last year over 9 runs and 9-6 over. His games tend to be more high scoring than avg, and his avg Run initated is 1.5 per game, with a few games over 2 and one at 3.6 runs. This matchup pts to an over as tigers are mashing this series avg 9 runs thru first 3 this series, Madden is making his major league debut so expect a few runs from Chicago while Detroit could hit the over themselves again.
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Right on the number!
Push
 
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-135
⭐️Atlanta-102
⭐️San Diego-130
⭐️Philly-137
⭐️Dodgers-1-140
⭐️San Diego/STL Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-Adrian Johnson-15-8 Over/10.58 Runs/LOW 2.1 SO/BB/63%K)
⭐️Cubs-123
⭐️Yankees-1-130 (F5)
⭐️Arizona-105
⭐️Boston-134
⭐️Royals+0.5-105 (F5)
⭐️Tigers-150
⭐️Brewers-106
⭐️Oakland+128
⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-130
⭐️Tigers/Angels Over 9-120
Mariners-146
Rockies-138
Yankees-1.5-135
Royals+145
Cubs/Pirates Over 7.5-120
Boston/Toronto Over 9.5-115
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5-105
Oakland/Cincy Over 9-130
New York/Arizona Over 8-120
Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5)
Seattle/Tampa Over 6.5-115
Yanks/Nats Over 8.5-115
Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5-120
Rockies Team Total Over 5.5-120
Texas Team Total Over 4.5-115
Brewers/Giants Over 7.5-110


Let's keep it rolling!
 
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PirateAlew said:
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️Texas-135
⭐️Atlanta-102
⭐️San Diego-130
⭐️Philly-137
⭐️Dodgers-1-140
⭐️San Diego/STL Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-15-8 Over/10.58 Runs/LOW 2.1 SO/BB/63%K)
⭐️Cubs-123
⭐️Yankees-1-130 (F5)
⭐️Arizona-105
⭐️Boston-134
⭐️Royals+0.5-105 (F5)
⭐️Tigers-150
⭐️Brewers-106
⭐️Oakland+128
⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-130
⭐️Tigers/Angels Over 9-120
Mariners-146
Rockies-138
Yankees-1.5-135
Royals+145
Cubs/Pirates Over 7.5-120
Boston/Toronto Over 9.5-115
Pirates Team Total Over 3.5-105
Oakland/Cincy Over 9-130
New York/Arizona Over 8-120
Dodgers-0.5-135 (F5)
Seattle/Tampa Over 6.5-115
Yanks/Nats Over 8.5-115
Dodgers Team Total Over 4.5-120
Rockies Team Total Over 5.5-120
Texas Team Total Over 4.5-115
Brewers/Giants Over 7.5-110
Phillies/Astros UNDER 9-115

Let's keep it rolling!
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Yessir PA
 
***2nd Umpire Over is Phillies/Astros Over 8.5-115 with Nic Lentz who avgs over 9 runs per, 11-11 Over but has great metrics with a 2.08 SO/BB ratio and 63%K, which will come in hand tonight as he squeezes Verlander and Nola and the bullpens for his his average 1.5 runs. Like last game he umped, i had the total close but he pushes it over for me. For Nola's starts, Phils are 5-2 OVER last seven, over is 3-1 last four games. Verlander is 0-1, 4.50 in his last four starts, and over 40 yrs old, he wont be expected to go deep, which will put further stress on the pen. Verlander is from the area I live in now and where his parents/family still resides (Midlothian VA), 2 of my friends played High school baseball with JV and 1 at ODU so we all pull for him but tonight i'll pull for Phillies and over.
 
***3rd Umpire Over is ⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-with Chad Witson who is 14-9 over on 9.5 runs, and 65% K. The last 2 yrs he's + money on the over, as last year saw his games avg 10.4 runs. Pitching points to the over as Crochet is 0-3, 7.59 in his last six starts and is limited now to 65 pitches each game. he is on a mandatory pitch count til end of yr, with White sox 2nd worst pen in MLB with a 5.10 ERA. Further Texas pen is almost as bad with a 4.45 ERA (26TH), and 1.36 WHIP (27th). The over is on a 12-4 run in White sox home games and 5-0 last Crochet starts.
 
***4th Umpire Over is Brewers/Giants Over 7.5 with Jodan Baker who is 16-8 Over on 9.52 Runs. Last year was similar at `19-8 over on 10.75 runs, so this guy favors the hitters last 2 yrs. Seeing him announced as ump prompted me to throw a bit more down on this over. The brewers are scoring 4.8 runs per and giants 4.3, i see both teams being able to get to the average at least and Brewers coming out with a 6-3 type win.
 
***5th Umpire Over is Oakland/Cincy Over 9 (played above) wIth Ryan Wills, who is avg 10.13 runs, 12-10 over but great metrics with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio and 63% strikes. He's issuing near 7 walks a game which will help with these pitcher who should give up runs. Spence carries a 5.57 ERA and a 2.82 BAA in last 4 starts (21 IP), while reds are going with Junis as opener and Bullpen game, so i expect Oakland to exceed their avg 4 runs per game. The over is 10-3 last 13 Specnce starts for A's and 5-2 for the reds last 7, as well as 4 of Oakland's last 5 have gone over. With RSIP Oakland slashed .709 OPS and Reds .808 so I expect plenty of runs to be scored with the chances presented and Ryan issuing more walks.
 
PirateAlew said:
***5th Umpire Over is Oakland/Cincy Over 9 (played above) wIth Ryan Wills, who is avg 10.13 runs, 12-10 over but great metrics with a 2.3 SO/BB ratio and 63% strikes. He's issuing near 7 walks a game which will help with these pitcher who should give up runs. Spence carries a 5.57 ERA and a 2.82 BAA in last 4 starts (21 IP), while reds are going with Junis as opener and Bullpen game, so i expect Oakland to exceed their avg 4 runs per game. The over is 10-3 last 13 Specnce starts for A's and 5-2 for the reds last 7, as well as 4 of Oakland's last 5 have gone over. With RSIP Oakland slashed .709 OPS and Reds .808 so I expect plenty of runs to be scored with the chances presented and Ryan issuing more walks.
Click to expand...
pirates this over look nice but the line is 10 since 12:00 pm
 
nolan#1 said:
pirates this over look nice but the line is 10 since 12:00 pm
Click to expand...
Yes I played it early this morning . See time of original post it was in there. I played all those in original post from 630-1030am. Also stated “played above” for reference. Thanks again line officer 🤣 would still play at 9.5 which was still available for 120 before first pitch and even 10 at no juice as I feel this could get to 12+ if the bats cooperate
 
***6th Umpire Over is Baltimore/LAD Over 8.5-115 with Jansen Visconti who is a whopping 16-8 over, on almost 10 runs. The matchup pts to an over as Irvin carries a 6.10 ERA and 1.65 WHIP in 10.1 innings (4 games, 1 start), while Captn Jack carries a 4-0 record and a 2.65 ERA in six starts. Both teams are good with RISP as dodgers and O's both hit .755 OPS this year. The over is 5-1 in Irvin starts and 8-4 for Orioles, while 10-4 for dodgers and 3-0-1 in Flahtery starts.
 
“All plays are standard bets unless adorned with a star. Those adorned with a star are TOP Plays. *Top plays are listed in order of strength.

⭐️San Diego-117
⭐️Atlanta-125
⭐️Brewers-1-103
⭐️Oakland+110
⭐️Pirates-0.5-115 (F5)
⭐️Boston-138
⭐️Mets+118
⭐️Houston-104
⭐️Baltimore+105
⭐️Detroit-135
⭐️Yankees-0.5-120 (F5)
⭐️Royals+133
⭐️Pirates/Cubs Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-Edwin Moscoso-13-11 Over/9runs/63% K/~10runs--20-'24)
⭐️Tampa/Seattle Over 7-105
⭐️Colorado-122
Texas-152 (Game 2)
Pirates-1-108
Yankees-1.5-113
Tampa Team Total Over 3
Clev/KC Over 7.5-120 (Umpire Over-Hudson-9.5 Runs/13-7 Over)
Arizona/NYM Over 8.5-115 (Umpire Over-Sean Barber-9 runs/11-9 Over, 2.5 SO/BB, 64% K)
Texas/Chicago Over 8.5-120 (GAME 2)
Boston/Toronto Over 9-115
Oakland-110 (F5)
Yankees Team Total Over 5
Marlins/Rockies Over 10.5-115
Tampa+1.5-140
Asstros/Phils Over 9.5-115
Giants/Brewers Over 7.5-112
Baltimore-108 (F5)
Atlanta/Minnesota Over 7.5-105
STL/San Dog UNDER 8.5-115 (Umpire UNDER-Valentine-13-10UNDER/8Runs/high 2.9 SO/BB)

⭐️Texas-135-(Suspended game from Tues)
⭐️Texas/Chicago Over 8-130 (Umpire Over-Chad Witson-14-9 over on 9.5 runs, and 65% K-Suspended game)
Texas Team Total Over 4.5-115 (Suspended Game 1)

Let's keep it rolling.....Dealt with a minor health emergency in the family, glad that is passed
 
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