MLB '19 model +94.81u through June 8th. Spreadsheet link inside.

[peelpub94]

Just like I did for Hockey, I am running the same model but with totals added. When there is a 0.75 or more disagreement on the under, we play it. 2.0 or more on overs, we play it. All other plays are on the moneyline with 4% edge between model and Vegas like hockey. Will be laying off some higher priced faves in certain spots. 44-32 up 13 units in the early going. Let's kill the books!

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FL6N7Xx_we9mxe5B2f74OWvY3jPCfkx9OKS0T1f_Vns/edit#gid=0

 

[BringInTheLefty]

good stuff, best of luck rest of the season

 

[B.A.R.]

:shake:

 

[peelpub94]

+2.23u yesterday


+15.28u YTD

Bunch of plays tonight. Lets get em!

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

The spreadsheet is very easy on the eyes.

GL today.

Im riding with you all season!

 

[peelpub94]

+2.8u last night.

+18.08 YTD

Let's get em again tonight!

 

[peelpub94]

+4.55u last night.

+22.63u YTD

 

[Bobbycmartin]

Very nice.

Whats the model probability built on? You may not want to share that info and thats cool but thought I'd ask.

Thanks for sharing, I will be following today.

BOL

 

[Bobbycmartin]

Also, TB has 9% edge today and no play? Curious as to why unless I'm missing something in how to read doc.

 

[peelpub94]

Also, TB has 9% edge today and no play? Curious as to why unless I'm missing something in how to read doc.

Yes it's a play.

 

[peelpub94]

+4.94u yesterday

+27.57u YTD

 

[Big_Degenerate]

System is putting in work! Thanks for everything you do.

 

[B.A.R.]

+4.94u yesterday

+27.57u YTD

Dirty, absolutely dirty.

 

[BJPLAYER]

Excellent work Peel

 

[Bobbycmartin]

You the man.

Solid performance yesterday.

 

[jimbof20]

Excuse me for coming in late but nice job so far. Unless I missed something earlier I noticed there is an extra play or 2 added from when I looked this morning. Is that correct or did I miss them earlier? If so will the plays constantly change? If so best to look right up till game time? Thanks and keep it up

 

[peelpub94]

As lines change, edge can move in favor of a play. CHW wasn't a play until line kept going up on them. Despised playing them today vs Snell, but it is what it is.

 

[jimbof20]

As lines change, edge can move in favor of a play. CHW wasn't a play until line kept going up on them. Despised playing them today vs Snell, but it is what it is.

Understood. Thanks

 

[peelpub94]

-2.51u last night

+25.06u YTD

Lots of close 1 run losses. Bound to happen after the unsustainable run. Lots of LOB, oh and the Giants are absolutely miserable.

 

[Bobbycmartin]

I had to remind myself last night to check the odds my book offers to see if there is a large enough difference to shift the edge. What book do you get lines from/bet on?

Following again today. Great work!

 

[peelpub94]

I had to remind myself last night to check the odds my book offers to see if there is a large enough difference to shift the edge. What book do you get lines from/bet on?

Following again today. Great work!

5dimes, pinnacle, sportsbook, nitro

Some days I have more time to track lines, set alerts for favorable line movements. Other days I have to make a judgment call on value and if that line can go any higher in our favor. Example, Minnesota today, +220, I think we're topped out here. Detroit at +135 I'm waiting to lock in a play for because I think more money will come in on Cleveland late.

 

[peelpub94]

-1.33u last night

+23.73u YTD

 

[peelpub94]

+5.09u last night

+28.82 YTD

Oh and went 3-0 last night in Hockey CBJ +190, NYI -110, DAL +145

 

[peelpub94]

No idea why I bother posting on covers.com what a bunch of total idiots.

 

[Noles4life]

That they are

 

[Timh]

Nice work Peel.

 

[peelpub94]

+0.55u last night

+29.47 YTD

 

[Bobbycmartin]

Lets finish with a strong Friday! Nice job Peel :cheers3:

 

[peelpub94]

+5.89u last night

+35.36u YTD

 

[dexter]

Are the picks up for today on the spead sheet? Thanks.

 

[BenchCoach]

great information...love your spread sheet, wish I was capable. I still use legal pads, Journals, and graph paper for my notes/records, lol...keep up the outstanding work this season.

 

[peelpub94]

great information...love your spread sheet, wish I was capable. I still use legal pads, Journals, and graph paper for my notes/records, lol...keep up the outstanding work this season.

Appreciate that BC. Thankfully I was able to parlay some of my IT background into something useful in the sports betting world

Here's to a great season for us and everyone!

 

[peelpub94]

-1.77u last night

+33.59u YTD

Throwin down a few -1 and -1.5 plays today. See how this goes.

 

[emg2525]

Not a bad day at the ballpark. Keep up the fantastic work.

 

[peelpub94]

+5.92u yesterday

+39.11u YTD

LETS GO!

 

[peelpub94]

+1.58u yesterday
+40.69u YTD

A lot of plays again tonight but no totals.

 

[PaintCrew]

Really impressed by this... keep it rolling!

 

[Timh]

Very nice work Peel :cheers3:

 

[B.A.R.]

:cheers3:

 

[peelpub94]

+44.20u YTD

 

[mrpickem]

Nice, wtg. :cheers3:

 

[Ryno14]

Tough day yesterday. Get em back.

 

[jimbof20]

another nice night

 

[chopz33]

Yup. Well done

 

[D-Woww]

I have a big ask for the CTG crew. This dude is unreal, mad props to you peel. Only issue is my work blocks google docs. Yes, CTG is unblocked, google docs are not. Go figure. If anyone can post the plays from the doc daily it would be greatly appreciated

 

[dexter]

I second D-Woww comment.

 

[jimbof20]

Please dont take this the wrong way. Ive been following with you and very impressed, however I did notice it seems like early in these series your model does very well, and towards the end of series is when that one bad day comes...Is that due to your model backing the same teams over and over and sweeps arent very common? Just wondering if theres anything to that that youve ever noticed....Or maybe just a coincidence since I started following....At the same time theres always gonna be bad days so just have to roll w the punches

 

[jimbof20]

I have a big ask for the CTG crew. This dude is unreal, mad props to you peel. Only issue is my work blocks google docs. Yes, CTG is unblocked, google docs are not. Go figure. If anyone can post the plays from the doc daily it would be greatly appreciated

I can do my best to try and post them here as long as every is okay with that...I do notice some times plays are added later as the day goes on but I will try to keep updated as best as I can

 

[dexter]

Thanks, Jimbo. Appreciate it!

 

[TroyStacks]

My model is very similar thanks to PEEL posting...

I WAS playing ALL edges and its down 9 units BUT.....

AWAY Teams are 57% Winners at +10.05 units

This model can be made more efficient in terms of little nuances like home and away and to DWOWW point maybe track first game of series versus all 3/4 games?

Great work PEEL!