MLB '19 model +94.81u through June 8th. Spreadsheet link inside.

Thanks peel! I haven't followed your baseball one as much as the hockey one...But...
If I like a play and check and see yours agree, then it is a play.
:shake:
 
peelpub94 said:
+75 units 2 months into the season, I'll take it. Although, I thought about stopping at 75 units, I think we could hit 100 units by all star break at which point I think we'd have to stop all plays and walk away.

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1FL6N7Xx_we9mxe5B2f74OWvY3jPCfkx9OKS0T1f_Vns/edit?usp=sharing
Click to expand...
Hey Peel, nice work on the model thus far. Quick question as I took a look at the start of June. Can you explain quickly the play today on Milwaukee? Based on the way your model and percentages work, aren’t the stats showing a play on Pitt? Also, just in reading the few posts above this, do you have another link where you post a “play of the day”?
 
T-Rex said:
Hey Peel, nice work on the model thus far. Quick question as I took a look at the start of June. Can you explain quickly the play today on Milwaukee? Based on the way your model and percentages work, aren’t the stats showing a play on Pitt? Also, just in reading the few posts above this, do you have another link where you post a “play of the day”?
Click to expand...
No plays of the day. Going against the numbers on the Brewers today.
 
Well that Brewers Pirates game was one of the craziest I've watched this season so far. Felt good being on the right side of a -1.5 in a 13 inning game. Wild shit.
 
hey man congrats in the success! i notice you have a model for nhl too. do you have any other sports you’ve created models for?

is it easier to create a model for moneyline sports vs spread sports?
 
dustroy said:
hey man congrats in the success! i notice you have a model for nhl too. do you have any other sports you’ve created models for?

is it easier to create a model for moneyline sports vs spread sports?
Click to expand...
The NHL model was actually just comparing vegas implied probability against 2 separate projection sites. The baseball is similar with some of my own special sauce.
 
A lot of last minute plays tonight as line movement created value for certain borderline teams. This will either go really well or really bad :)

Let's roll the dice.
 
No Canadian Bacon posts at Covers his posted record is 22-4. He is obviously very smart and does not think Soroka is over his problem by the way Sanchez is starting as catcher for NY and i am betting it now,
GL
 
Just a heads up, I'm going to be closing down access to the spreadsheet on 6/30. All plays will be tracked on my twitter account at @peelspicks

Feel free to always reach out in this thread or on twitter. I'll still be around in most of the game day discussion threads.
 
Great run @peelpub94
I don't follow every day but look in on occasion and it has been an amazing run. Did you ever eclipse 100u, I know you were right at it

Continued luck moving forward and I will follow your twitter :shake:
 
mrpickem said:
Great run @peelpub94
I don't follow every day but look in on occasion and it has been an amazing run. Did you ever eclipse 100u, I know you were right at it

Continued luck moving forward and I will follow your twitter :shake:
Click to expand...
Appreciate that mrpickem. Close to 100 units but we didn't get there. YET.
 
I think you are playing Colorado today. Is that correct? I am asking because I see the Giants as a rather strong play.
 
Why kid around. Bum is playing on Best rest with a ump he has .64 era with based on 14 innings with a superior day of week
 
tuck321 said:
I think you are playing Colorado today. Is that correct? I am asking because I see the Giants as a rather strong play.
Click to expand...
On the Rockies, today yeah. Basic probability. Can the Rockies win this game 41 times out of 100? I think they can with their bats alone.
 
We will see. You are betting against a 10-3 home pitcher on best rest and a extrmely favorable ump
 
tuck321 said:
We will see. You are betting against a 10-3 home pitcher on best rest and a extrmely favorable ump
Click to expand...
It was close, about as close as I'd expect it. The cubs loss was just plain stupid. So many base running errors fucked us in that one.
 
Taking a chance with Dallas main reason is 0n 13 inning history with Ted Barret 0 earned run Small bet
 
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