MLB '19 model +94.81u through June 8th. Spreadsheet link inside.

4/24

TB RL
Cleveland
St Louis
Colorado
Toronto
Arizona
Chi Sox
Seattle

Keep checking in as I will edit this post if anything changes
 
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jimbof20 said:
Please dont take this the wrong way. Ive been following with you and very impressed, however I did notice it seems like early in these series your model does very well, and towards the end of series is when that one bad day comes...Is that due to your model backing the same teams over and over and sweeps arent very common? Just wondering if theres anything to that that youve ever noticed....Or maybe just a coincidence since I started following....At the same time theres always gonna be bad days so just have to roll w the punches
Click to expand...

I've noticed similar trends as well but think it's still too early to correlate anything as an actual issue per se. I want to continue to roll out with what I'm running and assess further down the line.
 
D-Woww said:
I have a big ask for the CTG crew. This dude is unreal, mad props to you peel. Only issue is my work blocks google docs. Yes, CTG is unblocked, google docs are not. Go figure. If anyone can post the plays from the doc daily it would be greatly appreciated
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Between family, work, hobbies, travel and everything else going on it's even hard to just keep up with what I keep up with on the sheet. Since I often add plays late based on line ups, etc- I can't also manage posting in forums too. I'm sorry about that.
 
TroyStacks said:
My model is very similar thanks to PEEL posting...

I WAS playing ALL edges and its down 9 units BUT.....

AWAY Teams are 57% Winners at +10.05 units

This model can be made more efficient in terms of little nuances like home and away and to DWOWW point maybe track first game of series versus all 3/4 games?

Great work PEEL!
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Thanks bud. If I have some time this weekend, I will try and get some data on what teams the model has truly found success with. I did a cursory look the other day and did not find anything too unusual yet. PIT appears to be most profitable so far, with SEA having an unusual amount of edge plays.
 
peelpub94 said:
Thanks bud. If I have some time this weekend, I will try and get some data on what teams the model has truly found success with. I did a cursory look the other day and did not find anything too unusual yet. PIT appears to be most profitable so far, with SEA having an unusual amount of edge plays.
Click to expand...

Lots of PIT plays on my model too. Curious what you use for data on model?

I have a few but ACCUSCORE has been solid thus far.
 
Quick question Sir. I notice sometimes you may have it highlighted green but not listed as a play. Please explain
 
jimbof20 said:
Quick question Sir. I notice sometimes you may have it highlighted green but not listed as a play. Please explain
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On plays that I find questionable based on my own feelings opposed to what the model says I will wait longer for catchers, line ups, etc before executing a play. This also happens with higher priced favorites at times. For example, Tyler Anderson for the Rockies is a total disaster right now, and even though there is a 5% disagreement, I still don't find there to be enough value to make a wager on him. It may end up the Rockies win 10-9 or something, no one ever really knows. It's also a way to limit volume, as I'm finding a lot of disagreement early on translating to a large number of plays daily. Which exposes us to a little more risk than I'm comfortable with.
 
I'm just repeating myself saying how impressed I am by this but it's worth saying so again and thank you. Also, I've been just firing as your model says so without -1/-1.5 but will admit the big favorites like today give me pause. But I have been telling myself since I saw you get started with this to take feel out of it and just go with numbers for bases this year and i'll keep doing so.

Good luck and keep it rolling!

Also, you have mentioned you feel your edge will diminish as the year goes on. Curious your thoughts on it...I know Berry stopped firing last year at some point but his model kept going and actually thrived the last 2 months of the year. Regardless I appreciate the effort, I personally just finished up Peta's trading bases and am starting to piece together my own model to track and hopefully put in place next season. I told myself after watching Berry's run last year that I'd do it but then came up with excuses (kids) to not get it done but your efforts have pushed me over the edge to get it done. Thank you!
 
PaintCrew said:
I'm just repeating myself saying how impressed I am by this but it's worth saying so again and thank you. Also, I've been just firing as your model says so without -1/-1.5 but will admit the big favorites like today give me pause. But I have been telling myself since I saw you get started with this to take feel out of it and just go with numbers for bases this year and i'll keep doing so.

Good luck and keep it rolling!

Also, you have mentioned you feel your edge will diminish as the year goes on. Curious your thoughts on it...I know Berry stopped firing last year at some point but his model kept going and actually thrived the last 2 months of the year. Regardless I appreciate the effort, I personally just finished up Peta's trading bases and am starting to piece together my own model to track and hopefully put in place next season. I told myself after watching Berry's run last year that I'd do it but then came up with excuses (kids) to not get it done but your efforts have pushed me over the edge to get it done. Thank you!
Click to expand...

Appreciate that man. Peta and Berry are two big influences on me too. As for edge diminishing, I see it in other sports too as I did the same thing for Hockey and both models took a hit 2nd half. I think the general consensus is that it's just harder to win period, even without models. I don't know exactly what it is yet, but I've seen enough evidence of it to be aware enough to be ready to pull out at the right time, to maximize profit. Only difference here is that we're not using kelly, or upping stakes- it's always going to be $100 on dogs and to win $100 on faves.

The biggest thing for me and ironically the hardest thing for me to give up, is handicapping on feel and gut. Model betting removes all emotion and feel from handicapping, like you said. Although I do still use feel on some borderline plays and lay off, like where you'll see 4% edge on a huge fave and it's no play, or a pitcher who is complete dog shit.
 
peelpub94 said:
Appreciate that man. Peta and Berry are two big influences on me too. As for edge diminishing, I see it in other sports too as I did the same thing for Hockey and both models took a hit 2nd half. I think the general consensus is that it's just harder to win period, even without models. I don't know exactly what it is yet, but I've seen enough evidence of it to be aware enough to be ready to pull out at the right time, to maximize profit. Only difference here is that we're not using kelly, or upping stakes- it's always going to be $100 on dogs and to win $100 on faves.

The biggest thing for me and ironically the hardest thing for me to give up, is handicapping on feel and gut. Model betting removes all emotion and feel from handicapping, like you said. Although I do still use feel on some borderline plays and lay off, like where you'll see 4% edge on a huge fave and it's no play, or a pitcher who is complete dog shit.
Click to expand...

I totally get it. I've been very fortunate to have a solid number of college hoops seasons in a row and largely do it with feel, watching way too much hoops and building numbers internally in my head, etc.... I've burned myself in the past way too many MLB seasons using situations, my own bias against bad pitchers not taking into account all the other variables, etc.... Baseball is such an independent and largely situational proof sport that I don't feel like I was looking at it correctly. Why not put the math in place and take the gut and feel out of it....

My local has been used to paying me off in March and then me giving a good chunk back in bases before i call it until football season. He even asked me the other day what I was up to since I haven't given a cent back and he's had to pay out a few more times....here's to that continuing ;)
 
On your plays on totals, Peel, just curious to know if ballpark, weather, umps is factored into your model somewhere...?

Thanks, and, keep up the good work.
 
Should that be WAS/LAD over 8? Or is it a "no play" at the actual total of 8, instead of the 7 on the sheet?

Thanks :shake:
 
Of course your one loss was my biggest play of season haha. Way to kill it bud!! Keep it up
 
ehren said:
Hey bud, just trying to figure out this site. Did you post your plays for today yet and I don't see them? Or maybe you didn't post yet. Awesome run you on!!
Click to expand...

Click his spreadsheet link in his first post. Click May and scroll down to today’s date
 
Peel. Question. I know the ya is game is postponed but would that of been a play? I see you have it marked in green. But wasnt listed. Just wondered for future. Great job. Keep it up
 
For anyone wondering. Plays today

Min
Ari
Wash
NYY-1.5
Phi
Col
KC
LAD
Det ?
 
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Nice night last night...keep it rolling

I was curious about your thought process with he Mets yesterday. Early in the day they had a pretty healthy edge when you had already made a play or 2 (I think). Was it just waiting for lineups? Or lack of trust in Font? Later of course the odds moved significantly removing the edge.

Thanks and again keep killing it
 
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PaintCrew said:
Nice night last night...keep it rolling

I was curious about your thought process with he Mets yesterday. Early in the day they had a pretty healthy edge when you had already made a play or 2 (I think). Was it just waiting for lineups? Or lack of trust in Font? Later of course the odds moved significantly removing the edge.

Thanks and again keep killing it
Click to expand...
Line ups, Gagnon/Font really had nothing of value. I was on the road for most of yesterday so I didn't have much time to do anything at all. I actually ended up going to that game last night, funny how you take Cano out of the line up and all of a sudden the team looks fresher.

1558464441896.png
 
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