ML Dogs Week 6 Edition

Just studying @CPA-hole 's chart above...some possibilities IMHO (of >+150 odds) that are worth some further investigation.....

UL-Monroe
Rutgers
Memphis
Illinois
Ohio
FAU
South Carolina
Akron
Ball St.
Stanford
Cuse
ECU
 
Akron 390
Stanford 310
FAU 200
MTSU 700
Navy 430
ULM 450
UTSA 130
Tulane 170

These are the 8 I would play this week, and since I am not actually going to play any of them, most will probably hit haha
 
Not a ton I like this week….

Akron
Texas (how are they underdogs?!)
Arkansas (maybe?)
Syracuse
Penn St
Tx Tech
UTEP
Wyoming (maybe?)
Memphis (maybe?)
 
what a week ML Dogs had last week!
I believe I saw @CPA-hole say 22 Dogs won outright

I hope some of you guys profited a little from the thread!

Lets get the discussion going for this week

If ppl ain’t making a little coin off this thread I dunno what to tell them, find a new hobby! Lol. Can’t wait to get to work on this week. I did a lessor version of my typical 1st run thru and gotta say this card doesn’t look as appealing as last week. Not that there not a few gems to be found and a bunch more I won’t find but just feels like less to me.
 
Waiting on lines to come out. Not sure about ML, but a sandwich spot for Cincy. Off their super bowl with UCF on deck.

Not sure ucf holding as much look ahead value now but yea off the SB should be enough! No chance in hell with the ml imo but the points certainly only way to go.
 
ECU? Not sure I want to lay DDs with UCF these days.

One of 1st ones I circled. Quietly they actually playing pretty good ball. I was curious bout the love they were getting week one to really drop line against appy st, they didn’t cover that game but played respectable and have gotten bette every week imo. I understand why it came down against appy now! This def a potential upset!
 
Yuck...not a very good-looking slate for next week is it?

Not at all. After last week where I had 20-25 I wrote down on initial list I didn’t even bother writing the damn list my 1st time seeing lines this week! it was short! lol. Just means I’m gonna be going one by one all way thru card as the gems just hiding better this week!! I know they still there! Lol
 
Only I see at first glance are small

Tulane
Cuse
Boise
LSU

If byu qb healthy I dunno how ya play boise? That line is mfin short imo! Cougs will freaking gash them with the run game. On other side cougs defensive front will eat Bachmeieir for holding the ball too long! That one boise wr will be a problem for cougs secondary but this a mismatch imo. Since I know your style what is the bad situation for byu? Can’t have anything to do with coming off Utah st? Then they play baylor after, I don’t see the situational angle bud, what am I missing?

How bouts Texas? I gotta do some capping there but 1st thought they good enough to beat this mediocre ass qb. I know you like rattler tho.
 
Penn State, definitely

Other looks:
Texas
UL-Monroe
LSU
UVA

Initial lean for me is ville laying the short number at home. Feel like they been little undervalued since ol piss whopped them week 1. Imo No question they will go up and down the field on uva defense. I wanna say they be able to slow Uva down a bit but I have to look into that before I say for sure.

Horns on my short list.

No doubt we will have a ton of psu/iowa discussion this week! Seems like a fairly easy cap, havnt done it yet but mostly comes down to if we believe Clifford can protect the ball as no qb has done so against iowa yet! Should be a good game with 2 good teams of which im not convinced either as good as ranking!! 1st thought/lean to the dog.
 
Texas. I said last week that the TCU game would be more difficult to win than the OU game. Multiple reasons.

Love the Horns this weekend.

Glad to hear it! Ya’ll rb is fun to watch, kid a bad mofo! One them rare rbs who looks 1st round worthy to me! Sark does a great job scheming ways up to get him the ball also!

Tell me bout the qb, I havnt watched much of them since he took over but sure seems to have helped the offense. Only issue being the comp level of the defenses he has seen nothing to brag about, lol.
 
Akron 390
Stanford 310
FAU 200
MTSU 700
Navy 430
ULM 450
UTSA 130
Tulane 170

These are the 8 I would play this week, and since I am not actually going to play any of them, most will probably hit haha

Lol. You and your favs!

Need to ask KJ if we worry bout trees situationally after beating ducks in ot? Other than that little issue I lean trees as well.
 
Texas Tech
Wyoming
Memphis
E Carolina
Illinois

I'll probably take the points, but all these have a shot.

Memphis kinda made me scratch my head, but they have had a couple awful defeats in a row after jumping out to big leads! Can they keep the effort level up after those? Feels like might be a tough spot for them, similar to Marshall last week.
 
Not a ton I like this week….

Akron
Texas (how are they underdogs?!)
Arkansas (maybe?)
Syracuse
Penn St
Tx Tech
UTEP
Wyoming (maybe?)
Memphis (maybe?)

Texas has to be dogs by virtue of sooners being overrated! Lol. I for one am happy they are. Sooners finally scored some points but get torched by k-st last week, I know their qb came back but he isn’t that good! (Wish I woulda known he was gonna play, woulda happily took the points if so!)., rattler was incredibly efficient last week but I’m still not a believer and while he completed everything he still wasn’t pushing the ball down the field. Crazy how much for granted we used to take those 3 sooners qbs before him, think we all just assumed Riley made kids heisman winners and #1 draft picks! He found a kid that can’t do it for once! Lol
 
Glad to hear it! Ya’ll rb is fun to watch, kid a bad mofo! One them rare rbs who looks 1st round worthy to me! Sark does a great job scheming ways up to get him the ball also!

Tell me bout the qb, I havnt watched much of them since he took over but sure seems to have helped the offense. Only issue being the comp level of the defenses he has seen nothing to brag about, lol.

Casey is the son of Charles Thompson (ex-OU QB and, yeah, the guy below).

Casey's got a decent arm, mobile, good decision maker, film study rat and someone who I think will play well this weekend. Seems made for these type games.

We'll see.



charles-thompson-american-football-7604e39e-6064-4810-a2a3-3e13663ca6a-resize-750.jpeg
 
Lol. You and your favs!

Need to ask KJ if we worry bout trees situationally after beating ducks in ot? Other than that little issue I lean trees as well.
Hey man, if it ain't broke don't fix it! It's funny because it was kinda fun last week watching those 8 dog plays I was on, as at least half had a chance before crashing and burning in the end haha
 
Hey man, if it ain't broke don't fix it! It's funny because it was kinda fun last week watching those 8 dog plays I was on, as at least half had a chance before crashing and burning in the end haha

No doubt, ain’t throwing no shade here! If anything I’m jelly of you guys who consistently have success playing them! For whatever reason I just seem to be better identifying doggy’s. Kinda same with unders. I’ve gotten a little better with overs as I basically had to 10 years ago or whatevs when the nfl started implementing the rules for scoring! Lol
 
All over LSU. Don't know if you can have a worse trap game for Kentucky with Georgia up after this weekend.
Situational perfection but also have to weigh the letdown after choking several chickens by the Tigers Sat night...honestly probably better for LSU that the game is in Lexington for focus...they really had to screw up to not beat Auburn, dare I say on those Nix escape throws the LSU defense looked SLOW?
 
Not to mention that LSU's run game is apparently so bad they just quit trying v Auburn and threw it almost every down.

OU/Texas is hard for me to figure because neither one has a defense they can rely on. I don't see much difference in the defenses than they have had the last few years and they've routinely put up 60 to 80+ totals.
 
Not to mention that LSU's run game is apparently so bad they just quit trying v Auburn and threw it almost every down.

OU/Texas is hard for me to figure because neither one has a defense they can rely on. I don't see much difference in the defenses than they have had the last few years and they've routinely put up 60 to 80+ totals.
Much more into over than a side in RRR
 
If byu qb healthy I dunno how ya play boise? That line is mfin short imo! Cougs will freaking gash them with the run game. On other side cougs defensive front will eat Bachmeieir for holding the ball too long! That one boise wr will be a problem for cougs secondary but this a mismatch imo. Since I know your style what is the bad situation for byu? Can’t have anything to do with coming off Utah st? Then they play baylor after, I don’t see the situational angle bud, what am I missing?

How bouts Texas? I gotta do some capping there but 1st thought they good enough to beat this mediocre ass qb. I know you like rattler tho.
Boise is simply a situation play on after losing on Smurf. I already know how much you hate the QB but in this sport (and CBB) holding on to an opinion for an entire season can be expensive. I'd look more month to month, and he looked better against Nevada than he did UCF, progression is a thing and it happens quickly. That said not like it situational against BYU although Baylor is a big game for them against a reasonable recently ranked P5. Obviously I'm higher on Boise than you and have been impressed with BYU, tough game for me.

Over in RRR. Not touching a side.
 
All over LSU. Don't know if you can have a worse trap game for Kentucky with Georgia up after this weekend.
Man I don’t know….Kentucky is gonna be up crazy for this game and Kentucky D Line is going to be a real issue for LSU.

FLA averaged something like 300 plus yards coming in rushing and they scored 13 points

It’s certainly CAN happen but that’s gonna be the game right there. And LSU is 128 in rushing out of 130 teams. Just let that sink in. They had 29 rush yards vs Aubbie and RB got hit with n the backfield point of contact every rush attempt
 
Situational perfection but also have to weigh the letdown after choking several chickens by the Tigers Sat night...honestly probably better for LSU that the game is in Lexington for focus...they really had to screw up to not beat Auburn, dare I say on those Nix escape throws the LSU defense looked SLOW?
Out of position and tackling issues

At some point players have to accept SOME responsibility but we all now have to face the fact of what the common denominator is. It’s the Cookie Monster. It’s done. It’s over.
 
Boise is simply a situation play on after losing on Smurf. I already know how much you hate the QB but in this sport (and CBB) holding on to an opinion for an entire season can be expensive. I'd look more month to month, and he looked better against Nevada than he did UCF, progression is a thing and it happens quickly. That said not like it situational against BYU although Baylor is a big game for them against a reasonable recently ranked P5. Obviously I'm higher on Boise than you and have been impressed with BYU, tough game for me.

Over in RRR. Not touching a side.

It not just the qb, I’m not blindly fading him out of dislike. You know what continues to look awful? Boise run defense, even Nevada figured out after halftime they could gash them while they play light boxes. Their lack of halftime adjustments continues to be a problem for this staff as well imo. I dunno if cougs the best matchup to take advantage of that cause they continue to underwhelm in 2nd half after building nice leads, last week it was mostly because the 2nd string qb went down. Suppose it was impressive they held the cover and did it the same way I envision they will beat up Boise at the Los and with their powerful rb. I’m pretty firm on thinking cougs will go for 200+ on the ground and I think they will force my fav qb into a few mistakes as the poor guy has no help from the run game that is awful. The one wr Boise has will do some work vs byu secondary but they will figure that out. Boise just doesn’t have the kind of team I want to back on the road this year, can’t run or stop the run.
 
Their lack of halftime adjustments continues to be a problem for this staff as well imo.
So far Boise looks like an exact copy of Washington to me. A damn good coach leaves, a popular assistant takes over.

But being a head coach is a completely different job than being an assistant and I don't give the assistant any respect at all until he shows he can do the job. Boise looks like every game they lose a little of the precision the program has been know for over the last 20-30 years.

They're not a bad team, they are just not the well-coached machine they have been for so long.
 
So far Boise looks like an exact copy of Washington to me. A damn good coach leaves, a popular assistant takes over.

But being a head coach is a completely different job than being an assistant and I don't give the assistant any respect at all until he shows he can do the job. Boise looks like every game they lose a little of the precision the program has been know for over the last 20-30 years.

They're not a bad team, they are just not the well-coached machine they have been for so long.
Bingo.

Seems like a team that will continue to have ups and downs, like a team where you might want to look at dogs in all their matchups.
 
I'm just realizing Josh Heuple is just the opposite--a guy who takes over as head coach and the team becomes ever better.

It happened when he took over UCF. They immediately became a championship level team, but I figured he was just maintaining what Scott Frost did. Then he leaves to take over Tennessee, which everyone considered a hopeless situation, and they have played better every game.

I was shocked at how good they looked against Pitt. I had Pitt in that game and felt like I won the bet on sheer luck. Tennessee outplayed them.

No school in history ever lost as much talent to transfers as Tennessee did over the last year and yet beginning with the first game they looked better than they ever did--on both offense and defense--under Pruitt. I won't be surprised if they blow S Carolina out of the stadium and take Ole Miss down to the wire
 
So far Boise looks like an exact copy of Washington to me. A damn good coach leaves, a popular assistant takes over.

But being a head coach is a completely different job than being an assistant and I don't give the assistant any respect at all until he shows he can do the job. Boise looks like every game they lose a little of the precision the program has been know for over the last 20-30 years.

They're not a bad team, they are just not the well-coached machine they have been for so long.

Well said. And I’m really not just looking to fade them every week. It just so happens they keep running into teams I either really like (Nevada) or teams after watching every boise game feel like a terrible matchup for them (byu this week).
 
I'm just realizing Josh Heuple is just the opposite--a guy who takes over as head coach and the team becomes ever better.

It happened when he took over UCF. They immediately became a championship level team, but I figured he was just maintaining what Scott Frost did. Then he leaves to take over Tennessee, which everyone considered a hopeless situation, and they have played better every game.

I was shocked at how good they looked against Pitt. I had Pitt in that game and felt like I won the bet on sheer luck. Tennessee outplayed them.

No school in history ever lost as much talent to transfers as Tennessee did over the last year and yet beginning with the first game they looked better than they ever did--on both offense and defense--under Pruitt. I won't be surprised if they blow S Carolina out of the stadium and take Ole Miss down to the wire

Yea I agree, soon as they went to hooker things have improved seemingly every week, he actually had to leave the gators game correct? And they were in it till that happened. I know mizzou run defense soft but going for over 400 yards on the ground vs any sec team quite the feat!!
 
Boise is simply a situation play on after losing on Smurf. I already know how much you hate the QB but in this sport (and CBB) holding on to an opinion for an entire season can be expensive. I'd look more month to month, and he looked better against Nevada than he did UCF, progression is a thing and it happens quickly. That said not like it situational against BYU although Baylor is a big game for them against a reasonable recently ranked P5. Obviously I'm higher on Boise than you and have been impressed with BYU, tough game for me.

Over in RRR. Not touching a side.
Funny you mention Boise...I just did my data and the line that popped out to me was Boise/BYU....Boise smaller dog than they should be.

:oops::popcorn:
 
Funny you mention Boise...I just did my data and the line that popped out to me was Boise/BYU....Boise smaller dog than they should be.

:oops::popcorn:

they were way short at -3.5, i think you making that a reason to play them tho and i obviously not on board with that, lol..terps were short last week too. this aint that much less of a mismatch imo.. you guys got me scratching my head with this boise stuff cause byu easily the best looking play i see on this card,,i dislike it enough already when i like a fav the best cause that far from my best results.. i guess ill keep banging my head into the wall until something else starts looking better!! lol.. i am growing pretty fond of ecu..
 
trees are getting DD? that gotta be kinda alarming no? they baiting folks into another dog to start the weekend? how the hell ya lay that with asu? herm aint very good as a fav is he?
 
trees are getting DD? that gotta be kinda alarming no? they baiting folks into another dog to start the weekend? how the hell ya lay that with asu? herm aint very good as a fav is he?
Both in bad situations off upsets but Tree was way more intriguing in my book

ASU pretty much manhandled UCLA in the 2nd half, wasn't some dramatic victory

Shaw > Herman undoubtedly, ASU much more quality athletically

Tough one, really hard to see Tree sharp off that victory they REALLY stole from the jaws of defeat
 
Both in bad situations off upsets but Tree was way more intriguing in my book

ASU pretty much manhandled UCLA in the 2nd half, wasn't some dramatic victory

Shaw > Herman undoubtedly, ASU much more quality athletically

Tough one, really hard to see Tree sharp off that victory they REALLY stole from the jaws of defeat

yea i dont like spot for trees at all, they seemed way too happy in locker room after that game.. i wouldnt think asu considered beating bruins as a upset. i like herm a lot but i dont think his track record as a fav is real good, forget what it is but i heard somebody mention it fairly recently.. im pretty confident asu wins but no chance i can lay it,, guess just a pass.. im going one by one thru the card cause i have so little wrote down just hoping i can find a few! lol
 
yea i dont like spot for trees at all, they seemed way too happy in locker room after that game.. i wouldnt think asu considered beating bruins as a upset. i like herm a lot but i dont think his track record as a fav is real good, forget what it is but i heard somebody mention it fairly recently..
For me it would be ASU - or nothing, best to look at total in that one I think and I haven't remotely

ASU tt over against a possibly flat Tree defense is likely where I'll start
 
i cant convince myself to get behind rutgers, i have no doubt they could muck the game up and win like that but tough to find yardage for them!! i could see them limiting the run game and getting some pressure but thorne has done a fantastic job not turning the ball over, they 13th in the country in turnover margin so dont know rutgers can win that either? another dog i cant play.. next! lol
 
i cant convince myself to get behind rutgers, i have no doubt they could muck the game up and win like that but tough to find yardage for them!! i could see them limiting the run game and getting some pressure but thorne has done a fantastic job not turning the ball over, they 13th in the country in turnover margin so dont know rutgers can win that either? another dog i cant play.. next! lol
No desire to play their games, figured I'd give it a run for them to score against tOSU with garbage points in play but even then they couldn't give the team total a sniff. Do think they'll be a mid-level player in a couple years with that coach but that's about it. Not sure I even cap their games going forward this season.
 
hogs are getting somewhat tempting to me as that line creeps up, i think their style matches up well against rebs on both sides the ball, i think odem defense is built pretty well to force rebs to be patient and drive the entire field more than they would like and the offense is def geared to grinding some clock and keeping rebs offense on the sideline.. think i like under more but def think hogs can stay in this thing. which team responds better to the ass kickings they took last week? one concern for arky is Corral numbers are way way better at home and obviously he was on road against them last season..
 
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