Everything looks small this week.
Bigger ones I will try and consider:
East Carolina - although I feel very bad trusting that defense. Odd to me that UCF and Malzahn didn't go with Gatewood last week. If the Fr QB plays again, UCF could be in trouble, but I will say, Navy D is better than ECU in my opinion. And that was on the road, this will be at home. I'm more listing it out of some obligation like it could happen, but I won't take it.
Maryland - An old, buy low - sell high. Maryland stock must be at all time low, chances are they will like going against Ohio State D instead of Iowa (sounds funny saying it, but it is true). Ohio State stock back up, talks of title and playoff again. OSU does normally take the Terps behind the woodshed. Probably a $10 type play for me if anything.
Akron - now this one I genuinely like. Zips could not stop Rodgers QB runs and Ohio run game as Bobcats put away last week's game in the 4th Q. Akron had leads of 10-3 and 17-10 before fading in the 4th Q to lose disappointingly 34-17. Fortunately this week, Akron's weakness on D isn't something BG is going to be able to exploit. Because even vs Murray St, BG ran 43x for 118. BG only ran for 26x 55y on Kent last week. Although BG is playing competitive ball this year, it is Akron's best matchup opponent. So this is the week odds makers catch up to BG's covering ability this week and throw out a 2TD line? Oh, yes, I will bite. DJ Irons left the final drive or two last week with injury, so if he can't go Kato Nelson is back. That is good and bad.
Northern Illinois - Toledo D is for real, I'm not sure the O is yet. Just 28 combined pts vs CSU and BSU prior to last week's 'get healthy' game vs UMass. Last year's NIU team was quite a bit worse than this year's version and that game was tied 24-24 entering the 4th Q (Tol won by 17 and did outgain them by a bunch). A 5-7 2019 NIU team beat Toledo.
Illinois - Bert vs Badgers! Can Mertz rediscover the magic from last year's 20-of-21 5 TD game? Doubtful. UW is bad. Maybe playing a team like Illinois will be a chance for them to get right? Illinois beat them here two years ago. And that was a 10 win Wisconsin team and an Illinois team that entered the game on a 4 game losing streak.
New Mexico - I had some of the most awful ML bets last week. Although I won a few good ones, a few of the ones I didn't were really bad. New Mexico was one of them. They have now played really bad ball since the 2nd H vs UTEP and through last week vs AF. I think my respect for Danny Gonzales and Rocky Long is getting the best of me. But this is their former team, they both coached at SD St and we know that Brady Hoke can lose the coaching battle. Problem is, even if he does, that doesn't mean the players on the field can do the winning part of it. This is a long shot, but when you are a guy like me who plays long shots, I can't say I'd be shocked if they won and if I wouldn't be shocked if a +700+800 type dog can win I have to play it.
That is about all I see for dogs over a TD. Pretty thin week it looks like for bigger dogs.