ML Dogs Week 3

CFB UNLV ML+163

Vanderbilt vs UNLV
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 06:00 PM

CFB Charlotte ML+223

Georgia State vs Charlotte
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 05:00 PM

CFB East Carolina ML+278

East Carolina vs Appalachian State
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 02:30 PM

CFB Massachusetts ML+278

Massachusetts vs Eastern Michigan
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 01:00 PM

CFB Missouri ML+167

Kansas State vs Missouri
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 11:00 AM

CFB Buffalo ML+142

Liberty vs Buffalo
Game Start 09/16/2023 @ 11:00 AM
Placed 09/11/2023 @ 02:14 PMTicket # 628182574

Here is what I put in my 6 team RR birdcage. 4s/5s/6s

Did a 7 teamer also with all these + BYU
 
steponaduck said:
BC. Red bandanna game. They will give max effort this week. Absolute max.

And bad bad weather coming in. +29 is a gift.

Could be 21-13 type game.
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Thanks did not realize it’s this week.

I have a 9-0 ATS situational angle on this game that is pretty simple yet rare. This is just the fourth time it’s come up since 2004, and the last three were all moneyline winners for big dogs. In 2008, Oregon St upset #1 USC as +24. In 2018, Old Dominion upset VPI as +27.5. And in 2014, BC upset USC as +17.5. That was also a red bandanna game.
 
M.W. said:
Thanks did not realize it’s this week.

I have a 9-0 ATS situational angle on this game that is pretty simple yet rare. This is just the fourth time it’s come up since 2004, and the last three were all moneyline winners for big dogs. In 2008, Oregon St upset #1 USC as +24. In 2018, Old Dominion upset VPI as +27.5. And in 2014, BC upset USC as +17.5. That was also a red bandanna game.
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Yeah I took the following counting on red bandanna and bad weather
BC +29 regular
BC +21.5 + under 56 +292
BC+13.5 + under 56 +676
BC+8.5 + under 56 +1020

No reason they can’t keep it somewhat close in my opinion
 
M.W. said:
Thanks did not realize it’s this week.

I have a 9-0 ATS situational angle on this game that is pretty simple yet rare. This is just the fourth time it’s come up since 2004, and the last three were all moneyline winners for big dogs. In 2008, Oregon St upset #1 USC as +24. In 2018, Old Dominion upset VPI as +27.5. And in 2014, BC upset USC as +17.5. That was also a red bandanna game.
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Interested...
 
Man, this card is straight up ass compared to last week, even compared to week 1.

Gophers only one I’ve found so far and I’m not super high on the ml, then again as I’ll try to explain I think there a bunch of outcomes that would not surprise me at all, it actually could be a game taking +250 makes more sense than the points.

I actually been impressed with way unc running the ball but im not sure they be able to hsve that kind of success in this one. This game so tough cause there so many questions! Are heels wrs good enough to win on outside if they can’t run? I actually think their path to success might be Maye running more this week than he has thus far, make minny respect him as a runner and it pulls a man away and gives them a numbers advantage., or if they don’t Maye could be the leading rusher! The problem with unc for me is despite the fact I usually do as well in acc as any conference heels never been a team I bet much either way cause regardless what I think they should be (bad or good) they never freaking do what makes the most sense to me!!

What is gophers offense gonna be? I had heard eviugh all off season I expected what we saw wsek 1 far as transitioning to a passing attack, they have some big time wrs, I heard nothing but good things bout how much they like the qb Kaliakmanis, stands to reason that was accurate cause they let him throw 44 passes against Nebraska, he struggled in that game, he was plain and simply missing guys, even the td took a insane catch cause his ball placement wasn’t great (nice way of putting it!), that said I think it fair to say Nebraska pass d is pretty good, the final numbers don’t show it as they finally cracked under the pressure of simms continually handing buffs the ball but huskers had what looks like one the most explosive passing attacks in the country really struggling in the 1st half., that leads me to believe gophers passing attack could still be really good, they kinda three a curve last week tho, they went back ti what they been recently and ran it 50+ times! I think that was more about competition level but i woulda liked to see Kaliakmanis get confidence in that game. So did Fleck see enough week 1 and said we gonna get Back to running the ball or was it a one off they knee they could play bully ball and not show unc anything? Im not sure, I think their path to winning this game is attacking heels secondary, I havnt seen anything that leads me to believe unc can cover those guys.

Incredibly high variance game imo but that not a bad thing whern looking to back the dog! Even the total has me so split, only thing I feel reasonably confident saying is I don’t think it landing all that close to the 50 total. If gophers get back to throwing all over the yard it should go way over, Is that what they gonna do? I would but tough to say. Anyways far as this thread goes gophers feel like one the stronger upset candidates to me.
 
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M.W. said:
Thanks did not realize it’s this week.

I have a 9-0 ATS situational angle on this game that is pretty simple yet rare. This is just the fourth time it’s come up since 2004, and the last three were all moneyline winners for big dogs. In 2008, Oregon St upset #1 USC as +24. In 2018, Old Dominion upset VPI as +27.5. And in 2014, BC upset USC as +17.5. That was also a red bandanna game.
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In addition, Mike Norvell is 0-4 SU and 0-3-1 ATS in games coming off a 50+ point win.

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Florida
Mississippi State
BC
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Illinois 1st half

@steponaduck no FIU for me this week! ;)
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You know im Al for the doggies, especially conf games at home but I think Illinios and Mississippi st get run out their own stadiums. It just matchup problems with both those games, especially down where they ring those stupid cowbells!!

I just don’t see how sip st scores points? The offense they running right now is like a perfect example of what not to do against lsu imo. Maybe they will figure out it pretty stupid to run the ball so much when their biggest strength the qb but even then their passing game isn’t the kind that gonna stress lsu secondary the way noles did. The only time fsu passing game didn’t do well was when they threw screens and short passes! Lsu ate that shit up, it was when Norvell figured this out and started pushing ball down the field to his big wrs that they tigers d crumbled. Lsu secondary is def vulnerable but I think it down the field against bigger wr’s. The bulldogs mostly catching passes so far are not that big, they don’t throw it down the field, and they really seem hell bent on getting rid of the air raid and running the ball which kinda neutralizes Rodgers strengths! Lsu held what I think was a way better version of this offense to 16 last year. I’m not a big fan of laying more than a td on the road in conf but I’ll def be playing bulldogs team total under 21.5, if I’ve been tricked and they have a better version this offense they been saving so be it.

That just one side the ball, the reason i prob will lay ovsr a td is cause not only do I see points very hard to come by for sip st but I see no path to them stopping my dude Jaylen Daniels, he is a supercharged version of Arizona qb who took this d apart after throwing 3-4 picks in the 1st qrtr to spot them 14 points before before taking them to ot!! They couldn’t stop Daniels last year and they won’t here, his rush and pass props will prob be good bets also. Brian Kelly don’t lose these games where he has the better team, his team got whipped in 2md half on national tv week 1, this game at 11 so im
not even worried bout those obnoxious cowbells, by halftime only be 3 idiots very bad at math still ringing them cause unless bulldogs d plays great this be over quick.

Don’t have that much on psu/illinios, just that I don’t see anything Illinios offense that only scored 1 first half td against a not that good Kansas d can do here? Maybe this a spot psu is flat, I’m not super interested in this game since i can only bet side/total at casino, no props and no apps for Illinios games for me, that ok, it is nice I can bet their games now cause ku laying a fg last week was cake! Im not going out my way to bet this number but think it takes a massive disinterest by psu for this to be close.,

This card just doesn’t seem great especially in the bigger conf matchups for our cause this week!

I’d listen on gators for sure! I see enough flaws with Vols and this will be a incredibly tough environment! It’s been cream puff city for vols thus far and I just don’t think Milton is half the dude Hendon Hooker was. This one makes sense to me, i never been a graham merz fan, for not scoring any points he sure put up a respectable stat line at Utah, I didn’t watch enough that game to know why they didn’t score despite him throwing for 300+? Anyways this feels like a dog with some potential bite, I’d like to hear the case for laying it w Vols if anyone likes them, they could have matchup advantages im not aware of cause I don’t know exactly how good they are w Milton? Hooker was the difference and why vols were able to win a crazy game vs gators in Tennessee last year, of course Richardson was the gators offense so this looks like a totally different game, I still expect it be close tho.

What about mizzou? I’ve answered how terrible I think they are, I don’t think I have the stomach to play them, but this number stinks to high heaven! Every talking head, even guys podcast I respect all think k-st rolls and this just more k-st disrespect. I tend to agree but the oddsmakers smarter than most of us and this number down to 4?!?!?!? I do think mizzou has a huge motivational edge, think I mentioned I head something bout k-st having to take bus to this game, k-st hasn’t played anyone for me to know if their defense is good? My understanding from ppl smarter than me is they think k-st secondary is vulnerable. When talking bout mizzou I dunno if they will test that? They certainly have the kind of players they could do so they have just not shown me much of any evidence they will attack down the field! So there at least a few things going for the tigers, they are incredibly motivated for this game and the stadium is sold out, this could have been a tough week for k-st coaches to convince their guys they have to bring it and they taking a bus ride to the game!! I think this game has some the things lot of guys I respect look for, I still think it takes quite the leap of faith that mizzou offense will do something different than they have shown cause what they been doing won’t get it done! They might have the players to do it tho. And holy shit line down to -4 when nobody wants mizzou as you be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think this line should be higher!! I love Joel Klatt and he in same bout the rest the world, he thinks k-st buries them. Only personality I can see playing mizzou is SVP cause this as contrarian it gets!
 
2daBank said:
You know im Al for the doggies, especially conf games at home but I think Illinios and Mississippi st get run out their own stadiums. It just matchup problems with both those games, especially down where they ring those stupid cowbells!!

I just don’t see how sip st scores points? The offense they running right now is like a perfect example of what not to do against lsu imo. Maybe they will figure out it pretty stupid to run the ball so much when their biggest strength the qb but even then their passing game isn’t the kind that gonna stress lsu secondary the way noles did. The only time fsu passing game didn’t do well was when they threw screens and short passes! Lsu ate that shit up, it was when Norvell figured this out and started pushing ball down the field to his big wrs that they tigers d crumbled. Lsu secondary is def vulnerable but I think it down the field against bigger wr’s. The bulldogs mostly catching passes so far are not that big, they don’t throw it down the field, and they really seem hell bent on getting rid of the air raid and running the ball which kinda neutralizes Rodgers strengths! Lsu held what I think was a way better version of this offense to 16 last year. I’m not a big fan of laying more than a td on the road in conf but I’ll def be playing bulldogs team total under 21.5, if I’ve been tricked and they have a better version this offense they been saving so be it.

That just one side the ball, the reason i prob will lay ovsr a td is cause not only do I see points very hard to come by for sip st but I see no path to them stopping my dude Jaylen Daniels, he is a supercharged version of Arizona qb who took this d apart after throwing 3-4 picks in the 1st qrtr to spot them 14 points before before taking them to ot!! They couldn’t stop Daniels last year and they won’t here, his rush and pass props will prob be good bets also. Brian Kelly don’t lose these games where he has the better team, his team got whipped in 2md half on national tv week 1, this game at 11 so im
not even worried bout those obnoxious cowbells, by halftime only be 3 idiots very bad at math still ringing them cause unless bulldogs d plays great this be over quick.

Don’t have that much on psu/illinios, just that I don’t see anything Illinios offense that only scored 1 first half td against a not that good Kansas d can do here? Maybe this a spot psu is flat, I’m not super interested in this game since i can only bet side/total at casino, no props and no apps for Illinios games for me, that ok, it is nice I can bet their games now cause ku laying a fg last week was cake! Im not going out my way to bet this number but think it takes a massive disinterest by psu for this to be close.,

This card just doesn’t seem great especially in the bigger conf matchups for our cause this week!

I’d listen on gators for sure! I see enough flaws with Vols and this will be a incredibly tough environment! It’s been cream puff city for vols thus far and I just don’t think Milton is half the dude Hendon Hooker was. This one makes sense to me, i never been a graham merz fan, for not scoring any points he sure put up a respectable stat line at Utah, I didn’t watch enough that game to know why they didn’t score despite him throwing for 300+? Anyways this feels like a dog with some potential bite, I’d like to hear the case for laying it w Vols if anyone likes them, they could have matchup advantages im not aware of cause I don’t know exactly how good they are w Milton? Hooker was the difference and why vols were able to win a crazy game vs gators in Tennessee last year, of course Richardson was the gators offense so this looks like a totally different game, I still expect it be close tho.

What about mizzou? I’ve answered how terrible I think they are, I don’t think I have the stomach to play them, but this number stinks to high heaven! Every talking head, even guys podcast I respect all think k-st rolls and this just more k-st disrespect. I tend to agree but the oddsmakers smarter than most of us and this number down to 4?!?!?!? I do think mizzou has a huge motivational edge, think I mentioned I head something bout k-st having to take bus to this game, k-st hasn’t played anyone for me to know if their defense is good? My understanding from ppl smarter than me is they think k-st secondary is vulnerable. When talking bout mizzou I dunno if they will test that? They certainly have the kind of players they could do so they have just not shown me much of any evidence they will attack down the field! So there at least a few things going for the tigers, they are incredibly motivated for this game and the stadium is sold out, this could have been a tough week for k-st coaches to convince their guys they have to bring it and they taking a bus ride to the game!! I think this game has some the things lot of guys I respect look for, I still think it takes quite the leap of faith that mizzou offense will do something different than they have shown cause what they been doing won’t get it done! They might have the players to do it tho. And holy shit line down to -4 when nobody wants mizzou as you be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think this line should be higher!! I love Joel Klatt and he in same bout the rest the world, he thinks k-st buries them. Only personality I can see playing mizzou is SVP cause this as contrarian it gets!
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James Franklin has some good numbers when avenging a previous home loss so yeah I think PSU ends up winning this game. But I have some decent trends facing Illinois coming home off a road loss and also Bielemas trends are good coming off a road loss as well. I noticed with Franklins trends, however, games in this situation were mostly tight in the 1st half and he pulled away or came back to win in 2nd half hence my 1st half pick with Illinois.

I have some strong revenge angle trends favoring MSU that’s why I posted them… still have to look into coaching trends before I pull the trigger though.
 
there is a reason everyone is on penn state and the line has come down 2 points. why would that be?

same with K-state. obvious play on them with everyone on K-state and the line is diminishing.
 
2daBank said:
You know im Al for the doggies, especially conf games at home but I think Illinios and Mississippi st get run out their own stadiums. It just matchup problems with both those games, especially down where they ring those stupid cowbells!!

I just don’t see how sip st scores points? The offense they running right now is like a perfect example of what not to do against lsu imo. Maybe they will figure out it pretty stupid to run the ball so much when their biggest strength the qb but even then their passing game isn’t the kind that gonna stress lsu secondary the way noles did. The only time fsu passing game didn’t do well was when they threw screens and short passes! Lsu ate that shit up, it was when Norvell figured this out and started pushing ball down the field to his big wrs that they tigers d crumbled. Lsu secondary is def vulnerable but I think it down the field against bigger wr’s. The bulldogs mostly catching passes so far are not that big, they don’t throw it down the field, and they really seem hell bent on getting rid of the air raid and running the ball which kinda neutralizes Rodgers strengths! Lsu held what I think was a way better version of this offense to 16 last year. I’m not a big fan of laying more than a td on the road in conf but I’ll def be playing bulldogs team total under 21.5, if I’ve been tricked and they have a better version this offense they been saving so be it.

That just one side the ball, the reason i prob will lay ovsr a td is cause not only do I see points very hard to come by for sip st but I see no path to them stopping my dude Jaylen Daniels, he is a supercharged version of Arizona qb who took this d apart after throwing 3-4 picks in the 1st qrtr to spot them 14 points before before taking them to ot!! They couldn’t stop Daniels last year and they won’t here, his rush and pass props will prob be good bets also. Brian Kelly don’t lose these games where he has the better team, his team got whipped in 2md half on national tv week 1, this game at 11 so im
not even worried bout those obnoxious cowbells, by halftime only be 3 idiots very bad at math still ringing them cause unless bulldogs d plays great this be over quick.

Don’t have that much on psu/illinios, just that I don’t see anything Illinios offense that only scored 1 first half td against a not that good Kansas d can do here? Maybe this a spot psu is flat, I’m not super interested in this game since i can only bet side/total at casino, no props and no apps for Illinios games for me, that ok, it is nice I can bet their games now cause ku laying a fg last week was cake! Im not going out my way to bet this number but think it takes a massive disinterest by psu for this to be close.,

This card just doesn’t seem great especially in the bigger conf matchups for our cause this week!

I’d listen on gators for sure! I see enough flaws with Vols and this will be a incredibly tough environment! It’s been cream puff city for vols thus far and I just don’t think Milton is half the dude Hendon Hooker was. This one makes sense to me, i never been a graham merz fan, for not scoring any points he sure put up a respectable stat line at Utah, I didn’t watch enough that game to know why they didn’t score despite him throwing for 300+? Anyways this feels like a dog with some potential bite, I’d like to hear the case for laying it w Vols if anyone likes them, they could have matchup advantages im not aware of cause I don’t know exactly how good they are w Milton? Hooker was the difference and why vols were able to win a crazy game vs gators in Tennessee last year, of course Richardson was the gators offense so this looks like a totally different game, I still expect it be close tho.

What about mizzou? I’ve answered how terrible I think they are, I don’t think I have the stomach to play them, but this number stinks to high heaven! Every talking head, even guys podcast I respect all think k-st rolls and this just more k-st disrespect. I tend to agree but the oddsmakers smarter than most of us and this number down to 4?!?!?!? I do think mizzou has a huge motivational edge, think I mentioned I head something bout k-st having to take bus to this game, k-st hasn’t played anyone for me to know if their defense is good? My understanding from ppl smarter than me is they think k-st secondary is vulnerable. When talking bout mizzou I dunno if they will test that? They certainly have the kind of players they could do so they have just not shown me much of any evidence they will attack down the field! So there at least a few things going for the tigers, they are incredibly motivated for this game and the stadium is sold out, this could have been a tough week for k-st coaches to convince their guys they have to bring it and they taking a bus ride to the game!! I think this game has some the things lot of guys I respect look for, I still think it takes quite the leap of faith that mizzou offense will do something different than they have shown cause what they been doing won’t get it done! They might have the players to do it tho. And holy shit line down to -4 when nobody wants mizzou as you be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think this line should be higher!! I love Joel Klatt and he in same bout the rest the world, he thinks k-st buries them. Only personality I can see playing mizzou is SVP cause this as contrarian it gets!
Click to expand...
Florida is my top dog for this Saturday. I don’t have my trend numbers in front of me so I’ll post them later but just know Billy Napier has been downright lethal as a home dog. I would lay up to -13.5 alternate lines with them which is what I’m going to do. The Swamp will be a mad house Sat night & Florida still flying under the radar somewhat after their road loss to the Utes. Would you believe Mertz has a higher rated passing efficiency than Milton? It’s true … look it up. And talk about defenses?? Tenn scoring defense is about 13 ppg and Gators very close at 15 ppg with a stronger schedule. @dilaudid8 taught me years ago when playing dogs always take the better QB and defense. Defensive numbers are close enough for me considering how lethal. Billy Nap has been as a home dog….I could be wrong of course but I think the Vols are gonna get an ass-kicking by 2 td’s plus.

;)
 
2daBank said:
You know im Al for the doggies, especially conf games at home but I think Illinios and Mississippi st get run out their own stadiums. It just matchup problems with both those games, especially down where they ring those stupid cowbells!!

I just don’t see how sip st scores points? The offense they running right now is like a perfect example of what not to do against lsu imo. Maybe they will figure out it pretty stupid to run the ball so much when their biggest strength the qb but even then their passing game isn’t the kind that gonna stress lsu secondary the way noles did. The only time fsu passing game didn’t do well was when they threw screens and short passes! Lsu ate that shit up, it was when Norvell figured this out and started pushing ball down the field to his big wrs that they tigers d crumbled. Lsu secondary is def vulnerable but I think it down the field against bigger wr’s. The bulldogs mostly catching passes so far are not that big, they don’t throw it down the field, and they really seem hell bent on getting rid of the air raid and running the ball which kinda neutralizes Rodgers strengths! Lsu held what I think was a way better version of this offense to 16 last year. I’m not a big fan of laying more than a td on the road in conf but I’ll def be playing bulldogs team total under 21.5, if I’ve been tricked and they have a better version this offense they been saving so be it.

That just one side the ball, the reason i prob will lay ovsr a td is cause not only do I see points very hard to come by for sip st but I see no path to them stopping my dude Jaylen Daniels, he is a supercharged version of Arizona qb who took this d apart after throwing 3-4 picks in the 1st qrtr to spot them 14 points before before taking them to ot!! They couldn’t stop Daniels last year and they won’t here, his rush and pass props will prob be good bets also. Brian Kelly don’t lose these games where he has the better team, his team got whipped in 2md half on national tv week 1, this game at 11 so im
not even worried bout those obnoxious cowbells, by halftime only be 3 idiots very bad at math still ringing them cause unless bulldogs d plays great this be over quick.

Don’t have that much on psu/illinios, just that I don’t see anything Illinios offense that only scored 1 first half td against a not that good Kansas d can do here? Maybe this a spot psu is flat, I’m not super interested in this game since i can only bet side/total at casino, no props and no apps for Illinios games for me, that ok, it is nice I can bet their games now cause ku laying a fg last week was cake! Im not going out my way to bet this number but think it takes a massive disinterest by psu for this to be close.,

This card just doesn’t seem great especially in the bigger conf matchups for our cause this week!

I’d listen on gators for sure! I see enough flaws with Vols and this will be a incredibly tough environment! It’s been cream puff city for vols thus far and I just don’t think Milton is half the dude Hendon Hooker was. This one makes sense to me, i never been a graham merz fan, for not scoring any points he sure put up a respectable stat line at Utah, I didn’t watch enough that game to know why they didn’t score despite him throwing for 300+? Anyways this feels like a dog with some potential bite, I’d like to hear the case for laying it w Vols if anyone likes them, they could have matchup advantages im not aware of cause I don’t know exactly how good they are w Milton? Hooker was the difference and why vols were able to win a crazy game vs gators in Tennessee last year, of course Richardson was the gators offense so this looks like a totally different game, I still expect it be close tho.

What about mizzou? I’ve answered how terrible I think they are, I don’t think I have the stomach to play them, but this number stinks to high heaven! Every talking head, even guys podcast I respect all think k-st rolls and this just more k-st disrespect. I tend to agree but the oddsmakers smarter than most of us and this number down to 4?!?!?!? I do think mizzou has a huge motivational edge, think I mentioned I head something bout k-st having to take bus to this game, k-st hasn’t played anyone for me to know if their defense is good? My understanding from ppl smarter than me is they think k-st secondary is vulnerable. When talking bout mizzou I dunno if they will test that? They certainly have the kind of players they could do so they have just not shown me much of any evidence they will attack down the field! So there at least a few things going for the tigers, they are incredibly motivated for this game and the stadium is sold out, this could have been a tough week for k-st coaches to convince their guys they have to bring it and they taking a bus ride to the game!! I think this game has some the things lot of guys I respect look for, I still think it takes quite the leap of faith that mizzou offense will do something different than they have shown cause what they been doing won’t get it done! They might have the players to do it tho. And holy shit line down to -4 when nobody wants mizzou as you be hard pressed to find anyone who doesn’t think this line should be higher!! I love Joel Klatt and he in same bout the rest the world, he thinks k-st buries them. Only personality I can see playing mizzou is SVP cause this as contrarian it gets!
Click to expand...
I haven’t capped Mizzou yet….will later tonight.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Florida is my top dog for this Saturday. I don’t have my trend numbers in front of me so I’ll post them later but just know Billy Napier has been downright lethal as a home dog. I would lay up to -13.5 alternate lines with them which is what I’m going to do. The Swamp will be a mad house Sat night & Florida still flying under the radar somewhat after their road loss to the Utes. Would you believe Mertz has a higher rated passing efficiency than Milton? It’s true … look it up. And talk about defenses?? Tenn scoring defense is about 13 ppg and Gators very close at 15 ppg with a stronger schedule. @dilaudid8 taught me years ago when playing dogs always take the better QB and defense. Defensive numbers are close enough for me considering how lethal. Billy Nap has been as a home dog….I could be wrong of course but I think the Vols are gonna get an ass-kicking by 2 td’s plus.

;)
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Love hearing it buddy cause just breaking down games the way I do it feels far and away the strongest of your big schools without a doubt! (It tske me little mite time to get to the smaller schools im not quite caught up yet on those!)., Feel like this is a monster game for gators coach as well, they have gotten a hard nosed big game in a awful environment under their belts while vols been living the cream puff life. Far as the Mertz v Milton I dunno if I woulda thought that but i def believe ya so I’m not looking up! Lol. Milton has never impressed me, especially to the extent I would even entertain the idea he can replace Hooker and it be business as usual! I loved Hooker the 1st time I saw him play for a crappy Vtech team, I knew vols coaches were either very dumb or that be his job very quickly last year! This one official on my list ats and will go into my ml RR card as well!

Im not interested in penn st one way or the other really,, I understand you guys who like Illinios, especially w points I don’t think this psu team will slip up and lose here, the only way I can bet Illini games is cash and no props (ya’ll know I love those!) which I’m cool with the cash if I love a play, I actually prefer it, it’s nice that I was allowed to come in casino get down on ku last week, last year I was more than annoyed a few times I was incredibly confident one way or another on any Illinios team and couldn’t bet it! It prob only a few times a year tho and this really ain’t one of them! I’d be sick to my stomach going In and putting cash on counter or in machine for a Illini ticket! Lol. That said I wouldn’t feel any better staring at a psu -14 or whatever spread is. Just a easy pass for me, I def hope ya’ll Illini backers cash cause it the obviously “sharper” side, just not for me, I’m not that sharp! Lol

the only one I’d strongly urge against/will most likely be on the other side is LSU, however there a lot of ways to play this game w props and/or team totals that could keep me from having to play the kind of bet that far from my favorite to make, I’d say there a decent chance sip st pulls out some redic cover to burn all the folks in Lsu but I see even less chance they actually win: Brian Kelly not losing this game, if they lose he was the wrong hire. He a asshole, he wasn’t the wrong hire if they eventually want another championship which is the only way they keep score in Baton Rouge!!


I am really hoping your stuff doesn’t come back strong on mizzou cause I know I could prob talk myself into them and really not sure I want to! Lol. If it was a fantastic dog card I’d run no matter what. It’s not tho, so if your stuff comes back loving mizzou I guess it might be a Tiger Saturday for me!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
Love hearing it buddy cause just breaking down games the way I do it feels far and away the strongest of your big schools without a doubt! (It tske me little mite time to get to the smaller schools im not quite caught up yet on those!)., Feel like this is a monster game for gators coach as well, they have gotten a hard nosed big game in a awful environment under their belts while vols been living the cream puff life. Far as the Mertz v Milton I dunno if I woulda thought that but i def believe ya so I’m not looking up! Lol. Milton has never impressed me, especially to the extent I would even entertain the idea he can replace Hooker and it be business as usual! I loved Hooker the 1st time I saw him play for a crappy Vtech team, I knew vols coaches were either very dumb or that be his job very quickly last year! This one official on my list ats and will go into my ml RR card as well!

Im not interested in penn st one way or the other really,, I understand you guys who like Illinios, especially w points I don’t think this psu team will slip up and lose here, the only way I can bet Illini games is cash and no props (ya’ll know I love those!) which I’m cool with the cash if I love a play, I actually prefer it, it’s nice that I was allowed to come in casino get down on ku last week, last year I was more than annoyed a few times I was incredibly confident one way or another on any Illinios team and couldn’t bet it! It prob only a few times a year tho and this really ain’t one of them! I’d be sick to my stomach going In and putting cash on counter or in machine for a Illini ticket! Lol. That said I wouldn’t feel any better staring at a psu -14 or whatever spread is. Just a easy pass for me, I def hope ya’ll Illini backers cash cause it the obviously “sharper” side, just not for me, I’m not that sharp! Lol

the only one I’d strongly urge against/will most likely be on the other side is LSU, however there a lot of ways to play this game w props and/or team totals that could keep me from having to play the kind of bet that far from my favorite to make, I’d say there a decent chance sip st pulls out some redic cover to burn all the folks in Lsu but I see even less chance they actually win: Brian Kelly not losing this game, if they lose he was the wrong hire. He a asshole, he wasn’t the wrong hire if they eventually want another championship which is the only way they keep score in Baton Rouge!!


I am really hoping your stuff doesn’t come back strong on mizzou cause I know I could prob talk myself into them and really not sure I want to! Lol. If it was a fantastic dog card I’d run no matter what. It’s not tho, so if your stuff comes back loving mizzou I guess it might be a Tiger Saturday for me!! Lol
Click to expand...
Again I won’t need Illinois to win FG….just 1st Qtr & 1st half. ;) I’m expecting a tight 1st half and with a little luck maybe I’ll win.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Again I won’t need Illinois to win FG….just 1st Qtr & 1st half. ;) I’m expecting a tight 1st half and with a little luck maybe I’ll win.
Click to expand...

If you told me I was looking at scores and that was a ugly fuck close game at half it wouldn’t shock me at all. I do wonder how much of that happening in past was a Franklin problem or the fact I can’t recall him having many qb’s that look like this kid? That why I’m not really willing to fork out cash on Illini. Since I can’t play them on app i couldn’t add the 1st half ml to one my little RR’s if I wanted too…. Hope you get it bud!!
 
steponaduck said:
there is a reason everyone is on penn state and the line has come down 2 points. why would that be?

same with K-state. obvious play on them with everyone on K-state and the line is diminishing.
Click to expand...

I understand exactly why the line has came down with “everyone on psu”, obviously not everyone is, just most the mostly smaller betting folks who never understand why “name your ranked fav” is possibly losing or not blowing out “name your unranked perceived bad team who just got whipped last week” team. Thing is I generally don’t let those kinda things effect me too much, generally I prefer to be on the “sharp” side but I don’t think those things matter nearly as much as they did 10-20 years ago, if I cap a game and believe strongly in it im betting it.

As I mentioned to @JROCK1966 i don’t like psu laying multiple tds that much, but I do need to be able to make a decent enough case in my head to play the dog in these spots, Im not one to make a play just because it appears to be the “sharp play”. My favorite plays (other than props!) are when I see the path for the unpopular perceived “bad” team but im just as comfy playin the “square side” if I think that the play.

I don’t know what the betting numbers and line movement looked like on Illini/ku last Friday? I honestly try not to let that kinda white noise interfere w me (not saying it wrong it just not helpful for me). Anyways imo last week was the week to make money against Illinios, only laying a fg with ku team at home I was pretty confident they had no shot at keeping up with was my kinda “square play”!! Laying 2+ tds for a teams 1st conf road game, w a coach who teams been known to not show up isn’t my idea of a good time!

As i also mentioned to @JROCK1966 I’m almost hoping his stuff doesn’t like mizzou cause I do see the path for them, the problem is this coaching staff rarely seems to do anything that makes any damn sense!! I’d prob rather stay away but I think far as the things you talking bout and other angles that don’t have much to do with capping the matchups. this one really screams mizzou! Even some the personalities I respect, listen to their pods ,all seem to like k-st, I don’t think any the guys I respect were talking bout laying it with psu.
 
steponaduck said:
think buffalo missouri and NIU have a fine chance to win this week
Click to expand...

I’m another day from getting into Buffalo and niu of the world but as much as I can’t stand backing mizzou I tend to agree they the right side. Now if only you could convince the coaching staff to let their pretty decent qb throw it down the field to some very good wrs! Tell me you gave them a good talking to and they get the point then I would actually love mizzou!! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I understand exactly why the line has came down with “everyone on psu”, obviously not everyone is, just most the mostly smaller betting folks who never understand why “name your ranked fav” is possibly losing or not blowing out “name your unranked perceived bad team who just got whipped last week” team. Thing is I generally don’t let those kinda things effect me too much, generally I prefer to be on the “sharp” side but I don’t think those things matter nearly as much as they did 10-20 years ago, if I cap a game and believe strongly in it im betting it.

As I mentioned to @JROCK1966 i don’t like psu laying multiple tds that much, but I do need to be able to make a decent enough case in my head to play the dog in these spots, Im not one to make a play just because it appears to be the “sharp play”. My favorite plays (other than props!) are when I see the path for the unpopular perceived “bad” team but im just as comfy playin the “square side” if I think that the play.

I don’t know what the betting numbers and line movement looked like on Illini/ku last Friday? I honestly try not to let that kinda white noise interfere w me (not saying it wrong it just not helpful for me). Anyways imo last week was the week to make money against Illinios, only laying a fg with ku team at home I was pretty confident they had no shot at keeping up with was my kinda “square play”!! Laying 2+ tds for a teams 1st conf road game, w a coach who teams been known to not show up isn’t my idea of a good time!

As i also mentioned to @JROCK1966 I’m almost hoping his stuff doesn’t like mizzou cause I do see the path for them, the problem is this coaching staff rarely seems to do anything that makes any damn sense!! I’d prob rather stay away but I think far as the things you talking bout and other angles that don’t have much to do with capping the matchups. this one really screams mizzou! Even some the personalities I respect, listen to their pods ,all seem to like k-st, I don’t think any the guys I respect were talking bout laying it with psu.
Click to expand...
Ummmmm....no to Mizzou for me. I do see some favorable trends for Mizzou in a revenge scenario but I can't find much support for it. One, KState QB efficiency even though it's lower than Cook's it's still a good efficiency and KState ranks 25 spots higher in S.O.S. so the gap in Cook's & Howard's efficiencies can be explained. KState's defense is legit which is what I look for in order for a fav to cover on the road and finally Klieman has great numbers as a road fav. No thanks. I'm going to be on the sidelines for this one. JMHO. Pass on Mizzou for me and best of luck to all you Mizzou backers.

:tiphat:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Florida
Mississippi State
BC
Charlotte
Southern Miss
Illinois 1st half

@steponaduck no FIU for me this week! ;)
Click to expand...
JROCK1966 said:
James Franklin has some good numbers when avenging a previous home loss so yeah I think PSU ends up winning this game. But I have some decent trends facing Illinois coming home off a road loss and also Bielemas trends are good coming off a road loss as well. I noticed with Franklins trends, however, games in this situation were mostly tight in the 1st half and he pulled away or came back to win in 2nd half hence my 1st half pick with Illinois.

I have some strong revenge angle trends favoring MSU that’s why I posted them… still have to look into coaching trends before I pull the trigger though.
Click to expand...
Dropping MSU from my list....looked into coaching trends and this is not a good spot to fade Coach Kelly.
 
Updated Card 2nd time through have not placed any plays yet fwiw...

Florida
BC
Illinois 1st half
UMass

Axed Stark-Vegas, Charlotte, and Southern Miss as their facing some solid opposing coaching trends. Added UMass. I was on EMU last week and they played Minny tough 1st half and they won ATS but lost the ML....was thinking this might be a letdown week for them as they gave it a good shot and researched some coaching trends which backed that up. This is a good week to fade Chris Creighton's Eagles if you can stomach backing UMass. They did put together a surprising effort earlier this season whipping NM State on the road. They could possibly do it again this Saturday as Eagles possibly will not be at their best.

:popcorn:
 
Sparty this weekend anyone? If you dare with all the coaching upheaval this week? Sometimes these coaching changes can spark a team....my revenge angle for this game sits at 50% SU and 50% ATS. I'm of the opinion when you are trying to pick a dog to win outright, 50% odds aren't bad at all. DeBoer has never been on the road this far east in his head coaching career. The farthest east they've been is the Alamodome vs. Texas last bowl season. I'd look up of Mel Tucker's coaching trends to support this but...ahem....for passing efficiency of QB's Penix is 196 but Kim is not far behind at 189. Sparty scoring defense is better at 10ppg compared to 14ppg for Wash. S.O.S. big gap with Wash at 39 and Sparty at 124 however, like I said earlier, we may have the rare outlier in this game with a coaching change that might just fire the home team up and have them playing out their azz.....

:popcorn:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Updated Card 2nd time through have not placed any plays yet fwiw...

Florida
BC
Illinois 1st half
UMass

Axed Stark-Vegas, Charlotte, and Southern Miss as their facing some solid opposing coaching trends. Added UMass. I was on EMU last week and they played Minny tough 1st half and they won ATS but lost the ML....was thinking this might be a letdown week for them as they gave it a good shot and researched some coaching trends which backed that up. This is a good week to fade Chris Creighton's Eagles if you can stomach backing UMass. They did put together a surprising effort earlier this season whipping NM State on the road. They could possibly do it again this Saturday as Eagles possibly will not be at their best.

:popcorn:
Click to expand...
Beware the UMass QB that actually made them look functional against NMSU doesn't appear to be a go on Saturday, seeing the backup is looking likely and that starters legs are the only thing I've ever been able to talk positively about UMass football in my life.
 
KJ said:
Beware the UMass QB that actually made them look functional against NMSU doesn't appear to be a go on Saturday, seeing the backup is looking likely and that starters legs are the only thing I've ever been able to talk positively about UMass football in my life.
Click to expand...
Line moved from open -9.5 to now -7….shouldn’t that be going the other way if UMass QB is doubtful or out?
 
JROCK1966 said:
Line moved from open -9.5 to now -7….shouldn’t that be going the other way if UMass QB is doubtful or out?
Click to expand...
That's simply the weather. Hurricane Lee is moving lines toward dog and under, weather should be awful. But he was definitely doubtful when I read up last night, said they were preparing for the backup to start.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Ummmmm....no to Mizzou for me. I do see some favorable trends for Mizzou in a revenge scenario but I can't find much support for it. One, KState QB efficiency even though it's lower than Cook's it's still a good efficiency and KState ranks 25 spots higher in S.O.S. so the gap in Cook's & Howard's efficiencies can be explained. KState's defense is legit which is what I look for in order for a fav to cover on the road and finally Klieman has great numbers as a road fav. No thanks. I'm going to be on the sidelines for this one. JMHO. Pass on Mizzou for me and best of luck to all you Mizzou backers.

:tiphat:
Click to expand...

I rather not play them honestly, im glad you don’t like them! Lol. Im not completely sold on k-st secondary but nothing tigers have done makes me think they will even test that part of the d. They only threw 19 passes while letting mtsu hang around most the game. The offense has been complete garbage ever since they hire Drinkowitz, I didht understand all the excitement when hired this clown and I’m pretty sure he was dubbed some kind of offensive genius, lmao. I mean seriously wtf this guy ever do? Think he had one season at app st where he was handed the keys to a team already winning. He looks like a douche and he coaches like a clown.
 
Tailing MW and others on BC. Sparty very well could be a live dog as well. One more, it will either be Gators or USU. I'm not impressed with the cadets body of work thus far but they've been a tough beat in the mwc the last few years. Calhoun really got that program to where they just replace key players each year.
 
I axed Florida and did a complete 180 for my third game. Hoosiers over Cards. They're going to be coming in a little high after thumping Murray St last week. They were lucky to escape Atlanta with a W in week one.
 
Season to Date: -$134.00
Last Week: +$11.00
:rolleyes:

Here's what I played....file it in the FWIW column. ;)

Boston College Eagles (+10.5) +350, +830 1st half, & +1175
Florida Gators +193 & (-8.5) +410 <== best alt line offered was -8.5
Michigan State Spartans +510
UMass Minutemen +222
Illinois Fighting Illini +255 1st quarter & +350 1st half
Risk: $90 ($10 On Each) to Win $429.50

Also played two 3, 4, & 5-teamer RRs with...

Boston College Eagles +1175
Illinois Fighting Illini +350 1st half
UMass Minutemen +240
Michigan State Spartans +490
Florida Gators (-8.5) +410
Risk: $16 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $13,367.09

Boston College Eagles (+9.5) +400
Illinois Fighting Illini +244 1st quarter
UMass Minutemen +240
Michigan State Spartans +490
Florida Gators +179
Risk: $16 ($1 per Parlay) to Win $2,789.09

BOLTA!!

:cheers3:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Sparty this weekend anyone? If you dare with all the coaching upheaval this week? Sometimes these coaching changes can spark a team....my revenge angle for this game sits at 50% SU and 50% ATS. I'm of the opinion when you are trying to pick a dog to win outright, 50% odds aren't bad at all. DeBoer has never been on the road this far east in his head coaching career. The farthest east they've been is the Alamodome vs. Texas last bowl season. I'd look up of Mel Tucker's coaching trends to support this but...ahem....for passing efficiency of QB's Penix is 196 but Kim is not far behind at 189. Sparty scoring defense is better at 10ppg compared to 14ppg for Wash. S.O.S. big gap with Wash at 39 and Sparty at 124 however, like I said earlier, we may have the rare outlier in this game with a coaching change that might just fire the home team up and have them playing out their azz.....

:popcorn:
Click to expand...

im on it - washington on grass instead of turf away is not good......believe we have an overrated fav. not a good rush o or good rush d.......recall they went to ucla last year and laid a big flat egg on the road early in the year. ....................is sparty pass d improved? i believe they have younger fresher new talent in there........do you believe tuck/harlon barnett just are bad coaches ?? i don't........i think they got fat and happyy........they know secondary ball. The nick saban/tressel coaching tree is solid - I think sparty is improved.

Situationally it couldn't be better.
 
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