ML Dogs Week 0-1

ProV1Colt

ProV1Colt

CTG Super Moderator
Staff member
Ahhhhh Spring has passed.
Green Jacket handed out.
Summer is here.
4th of July Fireworks.
All Star Break (Go Braves)
And when I see the Little League World Series being played, You know what that means….

College Football is right around the corner.
And with College Football about to start……

That means it’s time for one of my favorite things about College Football….

ML Dogs!!!

Let’s get the discussion going for Week 0-1.

And why not discuss Pre-Season ML Longshots to win the National Championship

Along with the ML Dogs Discussion you know that one of CTG’s Favorite Contest is not that far away either.

Stay Tuned…..
 
One of my favorite queries in the early going is to look for week 0 or week 1 favs coming off of losing seasons and fade them....here is some of those favs I found first trip thru. Last season's records in ( ). Home teams in bold. There are some teams listed below I anticipate will be favs but not lined yet as they are scheduled vs. FCS. Without much research, of interest to me are FIU, S. Dakota, Hawaii on Sep. 1, North Texas, and Akron maybe??

Aug. 26:

FIU (4-8) @ La Tech (3-9) -9.5
Hawaii (3-10) @ Vandy (5-7) -17.5

Aug. 31:

South Dakota (14-1) @ Mizzouri (6-7)

Sep. 1:

Stanford (3-9) -9 @ Hawaii (3-10)
Missouri State (5-6) @ Kansas (6-7)

Sep. 2:

ODU (3-9) @ Virginia Tech (3-8) -13
Akron (2-10) @ Temple (3-9) -10
South Carolina State (3-8) @ Charlotte (3-9)
Cal (4-8) -8 @ North Texas (7-7)
Monmouth (5-6) @ FAU (5-7)
Bryant (4-7) @ UNLV (5-7)
NAU (3-8) @ Arizona (5-7)
UMass (1-11) @ Auburn (5-7) -39.5
The Citadel (4-7) @ Georgia Southern (6-7)

Sep. 3:

Northwestern (1-11) @ Rutgers (4-8) -7


:popcorn:
 
I would not be surprised if any of the below won SU and may sprinkle a little (no more than 50) on each of the first 5, but not sure if CSU is worth a flyer or not.

NIU
Toledo
South Alabama
North Texas
ULM
Colorado State
 
M.W. said:
Week 0

FIU over La Tech

Week 1

ULM over Army
Click to expand...
With La Tech improvements and revenge factor from last year compounding with FIU losing some key weapons on offense, I cannot see FIU wining a r covering in this contest. FIU will be really bad again this season
 
I would not worry about the revenge angle. Game 1 home favorites in this price range are 7-20-1 ATS playing with revenge for a prior-season loss that occurred in game 5 or later.
 
JROCK1966 said:
One of my favorite queries in the early going is to look for week 0 or week 1 favs coming off of losing seasons and fade them....here is some of those favs I found first trip thru. Last season's records in ( ). Home teams in bold. There are some teams listed below I anticipate will be favs but not lined yet as they are scheduled vs. FCS. Without much research, of interest to me are FIU, S. Dakota, Hawaii on Sep. 1, North Texas, and Akron maybe??

Aug. 26:

FIU (4-8) @ La Tech (3-9) -9.5
Hawaii (3-10) @ Vandy (5-7) -17.5

Aug. 31:

South Dakota (14-1) @ Mizzouri (6-7)

Sep. 1:

Stanford (3-9) -9 @ Hawaii (3-10)
Missouri State (5-6) @ Kansas (6-7)

Sep. 2:

ODU (3-9) @ Virginia Tech (3-8) -13
Akron (2-10) @ Temple (3-9) -10
South Carolina State (3-8) @ Charlotte (3-9)
Cal (4-8) -8 @ North Texas (7-7)
Monmouth (5-6) @ FAU (5-7)
Bryant (4-7) @ UNLV (5-7)
NAU (3-8) @ Arizona (5-7)
UMass (1-11) @ Auburn (5-7) -39.5
The Citadel (4-7) @ Georgia Southern (6-7)

Sep. 3:

Northwestern (1-11) @ Rutgers (4-8) -7


:popcorn:
Click to expand...
game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -8 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and PPRSW > 2

game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -19.5 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and 2 < PPRSW < 7
 
M.W. said:
game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -8 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and PPRSW > 2

game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -19.5 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and 2 < PPRSW < 7
Click to expand...
you have the wrong South Dakota listed there. they are playing the University of South Dakota Coyotes, not the South Dakota State Jackrabbits.

the Yotes i think were 3-9 last year, not a good football team.
 
M.W. said:
game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -8 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and PPRSW > 2

game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -19.5 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and 2 < PPRSW < 7
Click to expand...
P=previous, W=wins, S=season, and what is R?
 
JROCK1966 said:
there have been some massive upsets the past two years using those trends....hopefully there are some hits on it as we approach week 1.

:oops: :shake:
Click to expand...
game number = 1 and F and -1.5 > line > -19.5 and PRSW < 5 and division = FBS and 2 < PPRSW < 7

Last three seasons these teams are 11-4 straight up (FBS dogs are 9-2 SU; FCS 2-2), including 4-1 when dogged by 12+.

Qualifying fades (for now, as we await lines on FBS-FCS matchups) are

LTU > play FIU
Stan > play Haw
Rutg > play NW
Cal > play UNT
VPI > play ODU (pass because ODU won last year)
Temple > play Akron
BC > play NIU
 
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From Phil Steele's blog, he runs the numbers on % of upsets

philsteele.com

How often to underdogs win outright? - Phil Steele

Naturally there are different levels of underdogs and if you know me by now, you know that I will head to my computer and get all the details. There has been a lot of college football played since 1997, 26-years’ worth of games. Let’s look at the biggest favorites and you will see that Las...
philsteele.com philsteele.com
 
s--k said:
From Phil Steele's blog, he runs the numbers on % of upsets

philsteele.com

How often to underdogs win outright? - Phil Steele

Naturally there are different levels of underdogs and if you know me by now, you know that I will head to my computer and get all the details. There has been a lot of college football played since 1997, 26-years’ worth of games. Let’s look at the biggest favorites and you will see that Las...
philsteele.com philsteele.com
Click to expand...
Thanks for the link.
 
Looking at Eastern Illinois when they travel to Indiana State. Last year this line would've been about 10 or 11.

It's a rivalry game and both teams are bad. Eastern Illinois hasn't won more than 2 game the last 4 years (2-9 last year) while Indiana St hasn't won more than 5 over the same span (2-9 last year). While Indiana State faces tougher conference opponents, it is interesting that both schools lost four 1-score games each and each team was also outgained in every game but two last season.

Despite Indiana State being a moderately better team competing weekly vs tougher opponents compared to Eastern Illinois, the Panthers have still given them tough games and covered the last two. Did not play last year. In 2021 EIU would finish 1-10 and Ind St 5-6, but EIU only lost by 5 catching 14 pts (EIU outgained them 348-245! -3 TOs). In 2019, again a poor EIU team who went 1-11 lost 6-16 getting 15.5 vs an Ind St team who went 5-7 (Ind St did outgain them this time 343-200).

These teams look pretty comparable on paper. Both return experience at QB - Ind St QB Chambers was MVFC newcomer of year. However he only threw for 938 yards with a 44% completion % and a 8-3 ratio in 9 games. He did run for 4 TDs with about 100 yards rushing. The QB for EIU O'Brien doesn't have impressive stats either, also passing for under 1000 yards (853) in 8 games with 64% completions and a 9-8 ratio. He scored 5 TDs on the ground with about 60 yards net rushing. Chambers ROY award makes it seem like he is the better QB, but a sub-45% completion rate makes me wonder - neither of these QBs are good.

At receiver, Ind St loses their 2x #1 WR who last year had more catches than the #2 and #3 guys combined. EIU brings back their top two and 6 of top 7.

The RBs look pretty comparable. Ind St returns a pair of FBS RBs who produce well, but EIU brings in two proven RBs (combined 4000y between them in their careers prior) from FCS programs this year to replace their departed 2022 guys.

Both OLs have some experience and all conference players back, Ind St returns 56% of their starts, while EIU returns 74%.

Indiana State averaged just 16 ppg and under 300 ypg last year. EIU 22 ppg and also just a tick under 300 ypg.

On D, the Sycamores lose both their DEs and lose 3 of their top 6. EIU loses their top DL, but do return 4 of the top 7 overall. LB appears like a strong unit for both groups as most of the key players are back for both teams. They both lose one starter from the secondary. Overall EIU does lose their #1 and #2 tacklers and Ind St returns their top 5 tacklers. More of an edge appears on the Ind State side. Last year Ind St allowed 33 ppg and yielded nearly 400 ypg, giving up 4.3 ypc on the ground and allowing 63% completions. EIU was about the same, allowing 31 ppg, just over 400 TY and 64% completions. Ind St was better getting pressure and sacks were 23 compared to EIU's 15, although EIU was more active with INTs 13 to Ind St's 7

Eastern Illinois enters year 2 for coach Wilkerson (did replace the 2022 DC promoting DB coach). Ind St's coach Mallory enters year 6, but he hasn't posted a winning season since 2018, they have a new OC (Mike Bath).

These teams just look very even upon comparison. Again, maybe Indiana State is more seasoned vs tougher teams giving them some advantage, but the last two games vs Eastern Ill that advantage hasn't been evident, certainly not the last time they played).

I'll have to be looking for this number to get released Thursday 8/31. It's the first and only bettable game that kicks at 6:00 eastern.

For week zero, not sure who will be favored - if Albany is a dog vs Fordham I think they will win outright. Albany has a QB who got experience last year and is pretty good. Fordham loses a super record setting QB and the replacements do not look strong and 2 of their 3 top receiving targets are also gone. Fordham also lost their OC and DC and replaced those spots by promoting from within. Albany is an improving team with good experience everywhere and lost 5 1-score games last year (including vs Fordham last year only lost by 3 and also had close losses vs respected UNH and Villanova plus Monmouth).
 
Last edited:
JROCK1966 said:
One of my favorite queries in the early going is to look for week 0 or week 1 favs coming off of losing seasons and fade them....here is some of those favs I found first trip thru. Last season's records in ( ). Home teams in bold. There are some teams listed below I anticipate will be favs but not lined yet as they are scheduled vs. FCS. Without much research, of interest to me are FIU, S. Dakota, Hawaii on Sep. 1, North Texas, and Akron maybe??

Aug. 26:

FIU (4-8) @ La Tech (3-9) -9.5
Hawaii (3-10) @ Vandy (5-7) -17.5

Aug. 31:

South Dakota (14-1) @ Mizzouri (6-7)

Sep. 1:

Stanford (3-9) -9 @ Hawaii (3-10)
Missouri State (5-6) @ Kansas (6-7)

Sep. 2:

ODU (3-9) @ Virginia Tech (3-8) -13
Akron (2-10) @ Temple (3-9) -10
South Carolina State (3-8) @ Charlotte (3-9)
Cal (4-8) -8 @ North Texas (7-7)
Monmouth (5-6) @ FAU (5-7)
Bryant (4-7) @ UNLV (5-7)
NAU (3-8) @ Arizona (5-7)
UMass (1-11) @ Auburn (5-7) -39.5
The Citadel (4-7) @ Georgia Southern (6-7)

Sep. 3:

Northwestern (1-11) @ Rutgers (4-8) -7


:popcorn:
Click to expand...
I think this year is gonna be tough as a ton of teams are totally different due to the portal. LT gets proven winner Bachmeier....Flor Int likely will be roughly the same as last year with some fringe talent, but not strong anywhere....

Not sure there's a good way to incorporate the portal into rolling over last year's win/loss etc....just thinkin....

GL sir
 
Rusty Trombone said:
I think this year is gonna be tough as a ton of teams are totally different due to the portal. LT gets proven winner Bachmeier....Flor Int likely will be roughly the same as last year with some fringe talent, but not strong anywhere....

Not sure there's a good way to incorporate the portal into rolling over last year's win/loss etc....just thinkin....

GL sir
Click to expand...
Yes. Capping the Portal Transfers is gonna be tough.
 
Not a ml dog but it is a plus money prop so think it can go here.

Sam Hartman ov 2.5 td passes +135… this was basically a auto play for me anytime I could get Hartman cashing w 3td passes, I know this isn’t the wake offense but I still think he gonna come out and look good. If memory serves me right navy run d was way better than their passing d last year. Obviously gotta worry bout navy bleeding clock but I dunno how many long drives they will put together? Anyways I saw Hartman bought all his teammates some beats headphones, now the only thing left to do is come out and throw 3-4 tds to really acclimate himself as the leader of the offense!!
 
Played this 3, 4, & 5 teamer RR...

Game Date: Aug 26, 2023 - 09:00 pm
FIU Panthers +340
Game Date: Sep 1, 2023 - 11:00 pm
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +236
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northern Illinois Huskies +275
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 04:00 pm
North Texas Mean Green +220
Game Date: Sep 3, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northwestern Wildcats +210

Risked $32 ($2 per Parlay) to Win $3201.78

:drinkingcouch:
 
JROCK1966 said:
Played this 3, 4, & 5 teamer RR...

Game Date: Aug 26, 2023 - 09:00 pm
FIU Panthers +340
Game Date: Sep 1, 2023 - 11:00 pm
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +236
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northern Illinois Huskies +275
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 04:00 pm
North Texas Mean Green +220
Game Date: Sep 3, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northwestern Wildcats +210

Risked $32 ($2 per Parlay) to Win $3201.78

:drinkingcouch:
Click to expand...
All these teams are on my fav early season query as mentioned in post #4....with a bit more research these are the ones I think have a shot at winning and thus chose to play....

query.jpg
 
2daBank said:
Not a ml dog but it is a plus money prop so think it can go here.

Sam Hartman ov 2.5 td passes +135… this was basically a auto play for me anytime I could get Hartman cashing w 3td passes, I know this isn’t the wake offense but I still think he gonna come out and look good. If memory serves me right navy run d was way better than their passing d last year. Obviously gotta worry bout navy bleeding clock but I dunno how many long drives they will put together? Anyways I saw Hartman bought all his teammates some beats headphones, now the only thing left to do is come out and throw 3-4 tds to really acclimate himself as the leader of the offense!!
Click to expand...

Bang bang!
 
JROCK1966 said:
All these teams are on my fav early season query as mentioned in post #4....with a bit more research these are the ones I think have a shot at winning and thus chose to play....

View attachment 76976
Click to expand...
LTU fits my week one HF look ahead angle that I’ve been using for years with success , also fits other angles I’ve recently discovered. Also the head coach was my friend in first grade. I’m plus the points and doing the ML.
 
ProV1Colt said:
Glad to see everyone popping in!

Like a Family or Class Reunion

Getting all warm an fuzzy.

Leggo Navy & Notre Dame
Click to expand...
Hey, I made money on the first game of the season!!! My pre-game bets turned a profit, and so did my in-game bets. So, I’m excited.
 
JROCK1966 said:
Played this 3, 4, & 5 teamer RR...

Game Date: Aug 26, 2023 - 09:00 pm
FIU Panthers +340
Game Date: Sep 1, 2023 - 11:00 pm
Hawaii Rainbow Warriors +236
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northern Illinois Huskies +275
Game Date: Sep 2, 2023 - 04:00 pm
North Texas Mean Green +220
Game Date: Sep 3, 2023 - 12:00 pm
Northwestern Wildcats +210

Risked $32 ($2 per Parlay) to Win $3201.78

:drinkingcouch:
Click to expand...
It takes some balls to bet NW, but I may do it as well.
 
M.W. said:
It takes some balls to bet NW, but I may do it as well.
Click to expand...
Schiano also has not done well as a home fav of less than 10pts. This along with my other trend makes it worth a shot for me…am concerned about NW having that coaching change but guess I’m paying to find out.
 
How about a 30 pt dog that could win? Howard at Eastern Michigan I don't know the line will be 30, but the 2022 PR of Jeff Sagarin and Massey suggest it will be 30 or 30.5. Howard was dogged 23 at Yale and 39.5 at USF last season so it stands to reason the opening number is going to come out high.

First off Eastern Michigan is an awful big favorite the last few seasons.

It wasn't a big number, just an 11 pt line to open last season vs what ended up being a playoff bound Eastern Kentucky team, and that game was just 14-10 HT before EM did get some separation to lead 35-17 and EKU sneaked in the backdoor with 1min to go for a 42-34 Final.

Now for the big spreads:
2022 EM -20 vs UMass 20-13
2021 EM -32.5 vs St Francis 35-15
2021 EM -22 at UMass 42-28
2019 EM -32.5 vs Central Conn St 34-29
2018 EM -22.5 vs Monmouth 51-17 (only a 76 yardage edge for EM somehow in that one)

That makes just 1 cover the last 5 seasons in games where EM is favored by 20 or more. Now, they won all those games and we want an upset. Well, Howard hasn't done it before, yet and Eastern hasn't lost outright as a big fav, yet. But that is what makes trying to predict it all that much more fun!

Howard is returning 17 starters for the second season in a row and they enter year 3 of their head coach and staff that came in during covid. QB Quinton Williams enters his 4th season starting. All three of their All-Conference selections return to the OL with 4 starters back overall with experienced depth. Overall 7 of their 8 All Conference players on offense are back this year and their offense has been improving each year. The defense is on a similar improving trajectory and 9 starters are back on that side of the ball. When they played eventual Ivy League Champ Yale last year, they were only outgained by 67 yards in an 8 pt loss (trailed by 11 at Halftime). Home vs Harvard they were only outgained by just 9 yards in a 16 pt loss (tied at Halftime). USF put it on them 42-20 as a 39 pt fav, but that game was just 14-7 Halftime and USF only outgained them by only 6 yards. They were dogged by an average of 26.3 in those three games, yet they were only outgained by a total of 82 yards! Overall Howard was 8-2 ATS in their lined games in 2022 - 5-6 SU coming close to their first winning season since 2017.

Not only has Eastern Michigan been a poor big chalk team, they have been a poor small favorite team as well. 0-4 ATS last year as a home favorite. The last 4 seasons EM is just 2-9 ATS as a home favorite! They lost to Buffalo and NIU in that role last year. NIU went 3-9 last year and Buffalo survived a scare from Akron to win by 1 inorder to go .500 in the regular ssn. Eastern Michigan's bread and butter is as a dog and pulling upsets of their own on teams they shouldn't beat. Will tables be turned here? EM could be in a look-ahead spot as well since they travel to Minny the following week and EM loves collecting upsets vs the Big Ten.

Austin Smith is EM's QB this year and he was in and out of the lineup as a backup last year and he loses 4 of their top 5 receivers and has a weaker OL in front of him compared to last year's team. EM is usually solid on D and that looks to be the case again this year, although they do lose the MAC D POY at DE.

It's a likely 30 pt dog to win - what could go wrong?!
 
M.W. said:
SC State over Charlotte this week?
LIU over Ohio?

I’m playing both.
Click to expand...
SC State looked incredibly inept at home on Saturday. Not sure I'd feel comfy investing in them unless you just really really want to fade Charlotte.
 
Who could forget 2017 Howard 43, Unlv 40 as a 45 point dog? @s--k
Click to expand...

I kind of did forget about it but I was hiking in the park this morning and was thinking, was that Mike London and Cam Newton’s brother?
 
KJ said:
SC State looked incredibly inept at home on Saturday. Not sure I'd feel comfy investing in them unless you just really really want to fade Charlotte.
Click to expand...


Jackson St probably has better players than Charlotte. But yes it was a very bad look for State.

LIU is a team I haven’t got to yet, but this isn’t the same complete pushover they have been the last couple seasons.
 
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s--k said:
That is a good angle but Maine is a pretty weak team it appears.
Click to expand...
Typically when I want to fade both teams in any sport the over ends up being the play. Not sure how that resonates to FCS though, still have to be capable of scoring.
 
The Hawaii number sure went down after the solid showing at Vandy, from +7 to +3.5. Still kinda like themc to win but I might be even more interested in Schager passing yards prop. Hopefully they don’t Jack it up to much after crushing the 220.5 they hung last week. Chang seems to have the air raid back in full effect. Dunno how much of it was them improving year 2 or Vandy d being pretty bad? The good news is don’t expect trees d to be any better, quite possibly worse, they brought in a offensive minded coach, the d was awful last year, and they lost a bunch from that side in transfer portal. I’d expect Chang year 2 in air raid will have them putting up prolific passing numbers!
 
2daBank said:
The Hawaii number sure went down after the solid showing at Vandy, from +7 to +3.5. Still kinda like themc to win but I might be even more interested in Schager passing yards prop. Hopefully they don’t Jack it up to much after crushing the 220.5 they hung last week. Chang seems to have the air raid back in full effect. Dunno how much of it was them improving year 2 or Vandy d being pretty bad? The good news is don’t expect trees d to be any better, quite possibly worse, they brought in a offensive minded coach, the d was awful last year, and they lost a bunch from that side in transfer portal. I’d expect Chang year 2 in air raid will have them putting up prolific passing numbers!
Click to expand...
no interest for me on hawaii at 3.5. short week and travel back to the islands, not a great situational spot
 
survive&advance said:
no interest for me on hawaii at 3.5. short week and travel back to the islands, not a great situational spot
Click to expand...

Yea I agree. =7.5 I was eying before last weeks games. Solid showing at Vandy and sucked all the value out the line. As I was saying tho. Unless they massively adjust Schager passing yard prop could be some value on him!! Seems like the coach trees brought in will be much more focused on the offensive side the ball. Trees defense was terrible last year then had a mass exodus in the transfer portal. Going up against Tommy Chang air raid in season 2 seems ripe for another high passing yards game!! Just gotta wait and hope they don’t inflate his number too much! That is def the play I’m hoping to get down on!
 
We def gotta worry about how much the 350ish passing yards were a result of Vandy d ? Hawaii had guys running free all over the field! Lol
 
So an update on my fav trend for weeks 0 & 1...it had 2-1 SU and 0-3 ATS records this past weekend. The lone loss was Jacksonville State beating UTEP. Not much in the way of winning MLs but the ATS record for dogs was certainly good!

Looking down the list of games for this weekend, I'm already on the Bows at home Friday night, N. Illinois & N. Texas on Saturday, and NW on Sunday....what others do you see on this list that might win SU?

I looked into Akron but Temple, under Drayton, has some fine home fav numbers so I'm staying away. @M.W. already established the revenge factor for Va Tech so I agree with him and am staying away from ODU as well.

What about the MAC? Central Michigan and Miami OH are big dogs....either one have a chance?

@s--k mentioned a big fav earlier....no way UMass will stay in the game vs. Auburn and I don't think Arkansas St. has any shot at Oklahoma but what about New Mexico @ Texas A&M? The seat for Jimbo will be hot as a pistol if he loses to the Lobos. And what about in-state rival Texas St. @ Baylor? Any shot for the dog there?

:popcorn:

trend.jpg
 
Oh man....has anyone talked about CMU @ Sparty? Reading Phil Steele's previews, Sparty's QB transferred and their QB's are "vastly less experienced than last year." Furthermore he states they "are not a contender in the East and will have to battle to get back to a bowl game" among other tidbits of info. Meanwhile, his writeup of CMU had some nice things to say about HC McElwain and expects CMU to be a MAC West contender. In-stae rivalry and all along with my fav Week 1 trend....hmmmm. Methinks I might add the Chippewas.

:popcorn:
 
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