MistaFlava's FRIDAY NIGHT ***Power Selection*** (Writeup and Analysis)

MistaFlava

Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 48-33-2 (+30.20 Units)
2006 CFB ATS Record: 38-26-2 ATS (+28.00)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 10-7 (+2.20 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 4-3 (+3.50 units)

PLAY OF THE MONTH: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)
PLAYS OF THE YEAR: 0-0 (+0.00 Units)


29-9-2 ATS in Football the last three weeks

I am 1-1 so far this week with the loss being BG +7.5 last night. Should have been a night off for me but I had to have some action and it cost me. We now move on to Friday Night Lights as well as some weekend action to keep things rolling.

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Friday, October 20


Connecticut Huskies +23 (5 Units) ***PLAY OF THE MIDWEEK***

I know it sounds stupid and I know it doesn't look possible but yes West Virginia is quite capable of letdowns and yes the public is still quite capable of getting burned even though they cleaned house last night (Utah lost but the big cash was on UVA). The Mountaineers come into this Friday Night Lights showcase game (supposed to be a showcase) ranked #4 in the Country. However, a lot of experts still doubt their defense and doubt that they can stop a team like Louisville once they meet in about a month or so. I don't exactly disagree with those experts because I think West Virgnia has a ton of flaws that we don't see with the naked eye and those might somehow find a way to rear their ugly heads. Do you all remember the last time we saw WVU on National Television? It was on Thursday Night September 14 on ESPN. Sure the Mountaineers ran out of the gates with a massive lead but for those of you who watched it, you remember quite well that it came down to the last drive of the game and Maryland was threatening to score their 3rd or 4th straight touchdown to close the gap and almost cover the spread. WVU doesn't have the juices to go four full quarters. The Mountaineers average 41.5 points per game this season on 466.0 total yards of offense and 7.3 yards per play but average only 34.5 points per game on the road and 387.5 yards per game away from home. That's huge. UConn's defense has however had some good performances and are allowing only 19.8 points per game at home on only 339.8 total yards and 5.4 yards per play. On the ground, WVU's rushing attack is as good as it gets but they average less than UConn does at home with 233.5 rushing yards per game on the road and 5.4 yards per carry in those games. UConn's defense is horrendous against the run at home but that's because they have played some run-based teams and the numbers have been affected. We all know WVU can score anytime they want on the ground so the key will be stopping them when they throw. QB Pat White has been good this season and his numbers are huge. He completes almost 70% of his passes on the road for 9.1 yards per pass attempt. However, UConn allows opposing road QB's to complete only 46.7% of their passes this year when they come to Storrs. In his two road games, Pat White has thrown 3 interceptions which could be trouble because the Huskies have 1.3 interceptions per home game this season and are going to pressure White into making mistakes. WVU can win this game by 30+ points but they tend to lack the killer instinct and if they let UConn hang around too long, this game will end closer than we think.

The UConn Huskies are only 2-4 this season (2-3 ATS) but this is by far their biggest game of the season and the crowd at Rentschler Field is going to be rocking. This is not quiet crowd as many of you have mentioned and the 40 000+ that are going to be going nuts tonight are quite possibly going to help us steal a cover in this game. The last time the Mountaineers were here, they won 31-19 in 2004 but that was as a 7 point favorite as opposed to the 23 they are getting in this game. So the last time WVU was here they were ranked #17 and a seven point fav but now that they are ranked #4 in the Nation, that deserves an additional 16 points of being favored. Wow...that's news to me. UConn are coming off a confidence boosting win over Army last week here in Storrs, and although I don't expect them to win this game straight up, I do expect them to either keep it close from the getgo or to turn things on in the second half and swing by with a big time Moose cover. The Huskies are very well coached under Randy Edsall and I think coach Edsall can definitely get the best out of most of his players in games like this one. Sure they looked like crap in just about all their games this year but this is the one game they should definitely be jacked up. The Huskies average a respectable 25.8 points per game at home on 399.8 total yards of offense (higher than WVU's road total) and 5.9 yards per play. Now I know West Virginia's defense is tough but they do allow 311.5 total yards of offense per road game but only 4.4 yards per play. That means that in order to keep WVU's offense off the field, UConn is going to have to put together long and effective drives. That starts with running the ball which they do very well. RB Terry Caulley is a Senior and he has rushed for 588 yards and 5.9 yards per carry. RB Lou Allen has rushed for 222 yards on 4.6 per carry and 4 TD's while RB Donal Brown II has rushed for 200 yards on 6.9 per carry and two touchdowns. The Huskies are #12 in the Nation rushing wise and average 234.5 rushing yards per home game on 5.6 yards per carry. I know WVU allows only 48.5 rushing yards per game on the road but that was against ECU and Mississippi State who can't run for shit. The Mountaineers have to respect the running game which should setup QB Matt Bonislawski for some success in the air. Bonislawski needed the game against Army to get back on track and back to business. He is completing 50.0% of his passes at home for 6.4 yards per pass attempt but regardless of what the score is, I don't see him throwing much more than a few dump passes in this game. WVU are going to bring pressure all night but the good news is that Bonislawski is mobile and he gets sacked only 1.8 times per home game. I expect coach Edsall to start six freshmen, three of them true freshmen. That's a challenge in itself but as much as WVU should walk in here and demolish the Huskies, I think some of the UConn guys step up and possibly grab us a moose touchdown at the end of this game. I'll take the win even if it comes with 10 seconds left in the game.

Vegas has everyone setup for this one. Everyone came out a winner last night with UVA, CMU and some winning OVER/UNDER plays. Everyone has a little bit of extra cash to spend for the time being and since this is the only sport worth betting on this Friday Night, I am guessing a huge amount of people are going to be on WVU. How could you not be? They are 9-1 ATS in their last 10 midweek televised games or something like that and they have one of the most lethal attacks in the Country. So why take UConn you ask? It's all about using your gambling head, mixing thoughts with theory, mixing theory with reality and coming up with a pick.

Trend of the Game: UConn is 5-0 ATS in their last five games that follow a 200+ rushing yard performance.


West Virginia 41, UConn 24



:cheers:
 
Also adding that...

WVU have been stout against the run on the road because they faced ECU (77th in the Nation rushing) and Miss State (105th in the Nation rushing). UConn is ranked #9 in the Nation rushing.
 
wheezy said:
last night's game was bullshit. Gl tonight flava, still tailin ya :cheers:


I couldn't believe it. BG was down 17-14, twice marched into CMU territory, came out with nothing both times but punted nicely. Then, the dagger game when CMU was on their own 12 with a 3rd and 16 and then out of nowhere comes an 88 yard TD pass. ON 3RD AND FREAKING 16 from their own 12. Unreal how it played out. BG had something like 16 first downs to CMU's 11 and had twice the time of possession that CMU had.

GL tonight.
 
YoungOne said:
flava u must love the over then too right?


In a way I do but the wind is going to be insane tonight and im not too sure. I like UConn a hundred times more than the OVER.
 
If you take out UCONN's game opener against Rhode Island, UCONN is only averaging 16 to 17 points a game. WVU is only allowing their opponents 13 ppg while averaging more than 40 themselves. So, I guess my question is, how is UCONN going to score enough points to cover this?

MF, UCONN has played only 1 decent team this season -- Navy, and Navy killed them! WVU has a better offense than Navy does, so how is UCONN not able to stop Navy, but will stop WVU?

Letdown? They are on ESPN and they will have "letdown?" They need BCS points by showing the nation they can win big and they are going to have "letdown?"

Oh, well, that's why they play the game.

handshake.gif
 
Gutsy call Flava. GL. 'Fraid of the back door, so may just sit this one out. Hate big spread games anyway.
 
thedegenerate said:
what is up Flava?

like the pick! i also think that the u48 is solid.


It would be solid considering the windy conditions they are predicting as well as the fact that UConn can't kick for shit and will more likely than not go for it on 4th down from anywhere in WVU territory.

GL
 
MistaFlava said:
It would be solid considering the windy conditions they are predicting as well as the fact that UConn can't kick for shit and will more likely than not go for it on 4th down from anywhere in WVU territory.

GL

seemed like the line dropped 2 pts yesterday. huge % on the over as well.
 
UCONN is ranked#9 in rushing because the can't pass to save their lives!!
The team last year was a above average team but they lost so many people that the are a well below average team now. That 7 point dog from last year would beat this years team by 3 TD's EASY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 
GirlieGirl said:
UCONN is ranked#9 in rushing because the can't pass to save their lives!!
The team last year was a above average team but they lost so many people that the are a well below average team now. That 7 point dog from last year would beat this years team by 3 TD's EASY!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


A lot of teams who cant pass for their lives are nowhere near the TOP 25 in rushing. Edsall is a good coach and he installs confidence in his guys for big games.
 
Also, capping football and basketball games is not all about overall talent and overall skill. If I was basing this bet on overall talent and skill I would have WVU winning by 30+ points. Intangibles are a massive part of sports betting and football (being such a team sport and all) carries a boatload of intangibles. WVU have an off week next week but first they have to play this so called 'hassle' game against UConn. Yes it's a hassle game because everyone wants to be healthy and rested for the Louisville game after the off-week. Guys just want to make it out of this game alive and enjoy their week of rest.

Also, UConn is playing a bunch of young kids trying to make a name for themselves on National TV tonight. This is a tough place to play in. Rentschler Field is a tougher place to play in than WVU's Mountaineer Field. Believe me it is. The Huskies have a pretty good home ATS record over the years (17-11-1 ATS) and they have played at home against two ranked teams over the last five years and not lost by more than 12 points (12 to WVU in 2004 and 10 to Louisville last year).

Intangibles also mean public line movement, public action and Vegas reaction to recent college games. Vegas got hit last night but they got hit knowing they would be taking it back tonight with all the squares jumping on WVU like they jumped on Louisville a couple weeks back on a Friday. Vegas also knows that Pitt covered huge last Friday which invites even more squares on WVU.
 
I just feel like in this game there's no way UCONN can stop WVU. How often you think WVU will punt? You think they're better than when they played Navy? I think alot of sharp money has been cashing in on fading WVU ats... Roddy says he won't run up scores for BCS but tonight is their stage... b/c right now they are right where they should be.. not being taken seriously in the BCS race.

If WVU covers though... bet UL tomorrow... if not... don't... that's my opinion on this one... show me what you can do and I can do better...
 
MistaFlava said:
Also, capping football and basketball games is not all about overall talent and overall skill. If I was basing this bet on overall talent and skill I would have WVU winning by 30+ points. Intangibles are a massive part of sports betting and football (being such a team sport and all) carries a boatload of intangibles. WVU have an off week next week but first they have to play this so called 'hassle' game against UConn. Yes it's a hassle game because everyone wants to be healthy and rested for the Louisville game after the off-week. Guys just want to make it out of this game alive and enjoy their week of rest.

Also, UConn is playing a bunch of young kids trying to make a name for themselves on National TV tonight. This is a tough place to play in. Rentschler Field is a tougher place to play in than WVU's Mountaineer Field. Believe me it is. The Huskies have a pretty good home ATS record over the years (17-11-1 ATS) and they have played at home against two ranked teams over the last five years and not lost by more than 12 points (12 to WVU in 2004 and 10 to Louisville last year).

Intangibles also mean public line movement, public action and Vegas reaction to recent college games. Vegas got hit last night but they got hit knowing they would be taking it back tonight with all the squares jumping on WVU like they jumped on Louisville a couple weeks back on a Friday. Vegas also knows that Pitt covered huge last Friday which invites even more squares on WVU.

feel a little bit more comfortable taking UConn now, haha
 
wheezy said:
feel a little bit more comfortable taking UConn now, haha
]


how about some more?

With the weather being bad and WVU just wanting to make it out of here without big injuries for the Big East Game, this is going to be one of the most hostile environment's and most uncomfortable games WVU has played all season.
Think of it, sure they will score and sure they will go hard but at one point the mental part of things kicks in and the level of interest (bad weather and all) starts to decline. Nobody and I mean nobody wants to be rehabbing during the week off.
Do you guys remember last year when WVU was playing at East Carolina as a -22 favorite with the big Virginia Tech game on deck? It was an easy opponent but WVU didn't give a shit about the game and they ran a vanilla offense at best. This is a mirror game of the East Carolina game where we won't see a full out WVU offense like we would in other games. I know what you're going to say. You're going to ask about the win at Rutgers last year as a -3 the week before Louisville? Yes...they won and covered that one because Rutgers is a worthy opponent as indicated in the -3 line. East Carolina was as shit as it gets last year and WVU beat them by 5 the week before a huge game as -22 point road fave. Same scenario here guys.
 
SoonerBS said:
If you take out UCONN's game opener against Rhode Island, UCONN is only averaging 16 to 17 points a game. WVU is only allowing their opponents 13 ppg while averaging more than 40 themselves. So, I guess my question is, how is UCONN going to score enough points to cover this?

MF, UCONN has played only 1 decent team this season -- Navy, and Navy killed them! WVU has a better offense than Navy does, so how is UCONN not able to stop Navy, but will stop WVU?

Letdown? They are on ESPN and they will have "letdown?" They need BCS points by showing the nation they can win big and they are going to have "letdown?"

Oh, well, that's why they play the game.

handshake.gif

Well first lets not to heavily weigh the offense till Bonislawski got the call. He has led them to 16 ,17 and 21 points. In these games the kicking has been a huge problem see last week 3 missed FGS. So there PPG is somewhat misleading. Another point I would make is that the majority of those pts came in the 1st H so they werent gift points late.

Then look at WV defense...its clearly misleading looking at how many ppg they allow. Miss State had nearly 400 yds of offense. They had a long missed FG and threw INTs when standing at WVU's 7 and 17. Go back to ECU and ECU fumbled inside WVU 10 , they had a drive end on downs at the WVU 12 and they ended the game at the WVU4. Again alot of points left on the board.

Go to the WVU offense its deadly on aa short field which teams continue to give them. Bonislawski just one 1 INT so far so he is protceting the ball.
Also they are not excatly scoring 40 on the road. They had 27 @ ECU and they did get 42 @ Miss State but 14 came in the final 3 minutes and the last on a punt return. So even with the struggles vs Navy annd USF maybe 31-35 is a better comfort zone for WVU points here and even if they did get 38-42 its still not a stretch to expect 17-20 from UConn.

navy did kill them but the game was also a PK this is +23 or +24. We are betting expecting Uconn to be able to compete here on Homecoming nite in a lookahead spot for WVU.

You dont think Auburn had a letdown? Its a mental letdown that turns into a performance letdown. They are so focused as college kids playing Louisville and see UConns past performances and take them lightily. Its like saying dont play halfspeed cause thats when you get hurt..

You even look at last years meeting and of the first 5 TDS WVU scored they had 4 drives that started inside UConns 35 ...2 cause of turnovers by players not in this game and 2 on short punts by a punter not in thsi game.

The key is always make WVU drive the 80 yards and dont give them short fields. UConn is already saying there best defense is holding onto the ball on offense which is possibly why such a low total getting lower. In closing I posted all this stuff already on my blog BUT Huskies beat USF last year and lost 30-20 to Louisville. Even they limit turnovers and Nuzio returns to kick like he used to or just make the chipshots I think this game doesnt end with more then a 14-17 pt differential.
 
Nit picking but the ECU game was at WVU last year. WVU was at ECU this year and the Pirates hung around all night and the 17 point loss was misleading as the pirates fumbled on the WVU 10 mand threw a pick at the WVU 15 all in the 4th. At that point of the fumble they were down 10 then held WVU to one first down and then went down the field and threw the pick. WVU broke a 55 yarder to make it 17 with 4 minutes to go.
 
paleales...good work and point. I was saying as you were typing it as well. WVU hasnt looked as good on the road as the finals indicate
 
Game is not on my card, Mista, but good luck to you.
Like GG and den, I'm a bit of a skeptic but I'll probably watch till I fall asleep.
And go get em tomorrow.:cheers:
 
paleales said:
Nit picking but the ECU game was at WVU last year. WVU was at ECU this year and the Pirates hung around all night and the 17 point loss was misleading as the pirates fumbled on the WVU 10 mand threw a pick at the WVU 15 all in the 4th. At that point of the fumble they were down 10 then held WVU to one first down and then went down the field and threw the pick. WVU broke a 55 yarder to make it 17 with 4 minutes to go.


thanks for the info...misread some info but nonetheless still like what I see.
 
Thats the life of a gambler I guess. WVU fails to impress again and all get a late gift TD after Slaton fumbled and a personal foul moves them back 15.... Not to mention they get great field position for whatever silly reason possession after possession..I would give them credit if they actually didnt have the ball at the 50 everytime they started and thats no credit to them. Its the opposing teams bestowing repeated gifts...2 dumb 15 yd penalties on kicks...backdoor was wide open and UConn choked in every aspect...They just seem to be lucky....
 
I know one thing gentlemen, I will be looking hard at Louisville when that line comes out. you couldnt be more right, SportNut, about how overrated WVU is so many respects. I was on WVU tonight but UCONN should have covered that spread IMO.
 
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