MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Record: 20-15 (+5.20 Units) *12-5 the last two weeks
2006 CFB ATS Record: 16-14 ATS (+3.70)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 4-1 (+1.50 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 0-1
I went 5-2 last week and I am now 12-5 the last two weeks and things are starting to pick up. I am capping each game for about 20-30 minutes using all variables, intangibles and fundamental values. College Football is fun to cap and I find it quite easy to cap. Let's make some money this week and let's kick some ass.
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Thursday, September 21
Virginia Cavaliers +17 (2 Units)
The obvious choice in this one would be Georgia Tech because the not only do home favs cover almost all the time on Nationally televised weekday games, but the Virginia Cavaliers are in a rebuilding year and looking like they have never played a game of football before. Sure that's the case but that's not how this game is going to play itself out. The Cavaliers are coming off an embarassing 17-10 loss to Western Michigan at home on Saturday and don't think for one second that the few days of practice the team had this week were easy. Al Groh is pissed off and he let his team know after last game. The team is now 1-2 heading into ACC play but something tells me that this being the ACC opener for the Cavs, we are going to see a different Al Groh team out there. Rather than think about their loss to WMU all week, the players have only five days to recover and that is the best thing for this team. For some of you who didnd't already know this, Redshirt Freshman QB Jameel Sewell is making his debut in this game. Hewell knows this offense very well and he was given six snaps every practice with the first team offense in the second half of 2005. Sure the kid will be nervous but his size and speed will really mix things up and give some different looks. The offense is averaging only 223.3 total yards per game on 3.9 yards per play but I expect that to change with Sewell against a GTech defense that allows only 4.0 yards per play this season. On the ground, the Cavaliers have had nothing. 50 yards rushing per game on 2.1 yards per carry is pathetic and things won't get any better against a defense that has completely shut down the run this year and allowed less than 300 yards rushing all season. In the air, Sewell is said to have a good arm and he showed by completing 7 of the 11 passes he has thrown this year. He should help improve on the 5.0 yards per pass attempt that the Cavs are averaging right now. Georgia Tech is very beatable in the air but most teams have not tried much against them. They allow only 5.0 yards per pass attempt but have allowed 192.0 passing yards per game to this point meaning that Sewell might have success in his debut. Interceptions have killed the Cavaliers but luckily Sewell seems to have a good head on his shoulders and he seesm to be able to move well enough. I look for Virginia to establish somewhat of a run game early, setting up nice yardage plays in the air for Sewell who should hook up with breakout WR Kevin Ogletree in this one. I really live the Cavs to keep this game close enough to cover.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have a +.500 record when the underdog in games over the last six years but they are only 20-27-1 as favorites over that same period of time and I just don't see how they are going to be jacked up for a game against what looks to be a very easy going Virginia team. Well Chan Gailey better let his guys know that Virginia is still Virginia and that if his team takes them lightly, they might actually come close to losing this game. They have a horrible ATS history when it comes to playing on Thursday nights and now they have to play against a new QB that nobody knows anything about. Motivation is the key for the Jackets in this game and like I mentioned before, I have a feeling that they are not very motivated and might get caught sleeping quite a few times. The Jackets are 2-1 on the year and are coming off a 35-20 win over the Troy Trojans and the game against Virginia Tech next week might be all the Jackets are thinking about in this one. The Jackets are averaging 27.7 points per game so far this year on offense on 360.7 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. However, what people fail to look at in this matchup is that Virginia may not have much offense but their defense has kept games close and their defense has more returning starters than GT. Virginia is allowing only 294.3 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Jackets have been outstanding and they usually beat teams with a strong running game. Led by QB Reggie Ball and RB Tashard Choice, they average 207.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. However, the Virginia defense has not allowed any big rushing performances and are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry this season which may slow down the GTech offense and make them throw the ball, something Reggie Ball doesn't want to do. I say that because Ball is completing only 50.7% of his passes, and although he has thrown 5 TD passes, he has also thrown 3 interceptions. The Jackets average only 5.2 yards per pass attempt and in order to beat the Cavaliers by 17 points or more, you need an efficient passing game, something Georgia Tech doesn't have. The Cavs have been shredded in the air for some big plays but if they can force Ball into making some mistakes which is guaranteed to happen, they should have success on both sides of the ball in this game and somewhat shutting down the GTech offense is going to be very possible. I see Virginia forcing a few key turnovers to ensure the cover.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 10.5 points or more.
Georgia Tech 26, Virginia 20
Friday, September 22
Northwestern-Nevada 'Over' 48.5 (2 Units)
I know exactly what's going on with this line. The over/under opened at something like 54.5 and his since dropped to 47.5 at some books. Well I dropped my cash on this game at 48.5 and although I would love to have the ever so dropping line that is now being offered, I don't see myself losing this one at all. Northwestern is coming off a 14-6 win over Eastern Michigan and that is probably why this line is being pounded hard on the UNDER as the betting public expects to low scoring to continue trend. Well think again you bunch of sheep. This program has been in sever turmoil since the death of head coach Randy Walker in the off-season but the emtional rollercoaster is on a break right now and Northwestern gets to go away from home for the first time without talk of Walker's death and as bad as it sounds, I seem them coming out guns blazing in this game. The Wildcats are averaging only 17.3 points per game this season but they have shown signs of life by putting up 309.0 yards of offense per game. Sure that's nothing to get excited about but like I mentioned before, the two home games we very emotional and now that the setting is different, the Wildcats can get back to business. The best part about it is that Nevada's defense is allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per play this season and the Wildcats might be able to score 30 for the first time this year. On the ground, stud RB Tyrell Sutton has already rushed for 245 yards this season while QB Mike Kafka has been very impressive rushing for 164 yards. As a team, the Wildcats run for 179.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. The running game should really kick ass in this one as Nevada's defense is weak against the run and they allow 4.5 yards per carry. Sutton is going to have some huge plays in this one and should rush for 150+ yards in total and two touchdowns. In the air, QB Mike Kafka has done a decent job but now it's time to unleash his big league arm. Kafka can really run the ball and he has completed 62.7% of his passes for one touchdown and two interpcetions on 355 passing yards. The Wildcats average 5.2 yards per pass attempt this season but with Sutton eating up big time yards on the ground, Kafka should be able to unload on a Nevada secondary that allows a whopping 7.2 yards per pass attempt on almost 200 passing yard per game. The Wildcats don't have a passing touchdown this season but look for WR Shaun Herbert to have a huge game as he was the top receiver on this team last year and he should have some huge plays downfield in this one. Tons of points in line for Northwestern here. Nevada is allowing 30.0 points per game this season and that's about to get worst.
The Nevada Wolfpack have always been known for their scoring ability. They have averaged 25 points per game or more in four of the last five seasons and with seven memebers of their offense returning this season, we have not yet seen what the Wolfpack can really do with all the weapons that coach Ault has at his disposal. Well in this game you are about to see an air and ground assault like we haven't seen all season from the Wolfpack and people who have money on the UNDER thinking that the line movement means something, are in for a huge surprise as we might reach 40 points by halftime. This is really a bogus line and I don't know who decided to make a game between these two teams, anything less than 55-60 points. Regardless, I see it as an early Christmas present and will gladly collect some nice money off a Vegas mistake. Nevada are coming off their first win of the year as they spanked Colorado State 28-10 last weekend but the offense still wasn't as sharp as they should. They are averaging 338.0 total yards of offense per game on only 5.0 yards per play. However, Northwestern's defense has been badly overachieving this season as they have allowed only 14.3 points per game on 236.7 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play. This coming from a defense that has allowed an average of almost 35 points per game over the last five seasons. NW has played against Miami Ohio, New Hampshire and Eastern Michigan and I don't think all three times combined could come close to what Nevada brings to the table on offense. On the ground, Nevada is averaging 151.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry buy RB Robert Hubbard won't be able to kill time off the clock in this one as NW's run defense has allowed only 2.8 yards per carry so far this season. As for the air game, QB Jeff Rowe has completed 64% of his passes for 554 passing yards and five touchdowns. The Wolfpack as a team are passing for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and are going up against a Northwestern team that have allowed only 5.7 yards per pass attempt this season but that have not played a team of Nevada's caliber. WR Caleb Spencer leads the team in receiving yards but he has been held without a touchdown and that should all change as Rowe will hook up a few times with his standout superstar receiver. The only way to beat Northwestern in this game is going to be to trade blows because a defense battle would be risky and the Wolfpack have a much better chance if they just start putting up as many points as they can on the board for Northwestern to sink as the match goes. The line might keep dropping and you might want to wait but my advice is to pound now and let's see a FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS type of shootout by these two teams.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-2 in Nevada's last 11 games following a win.
Nevada 38, Northwestern 35
Saturday, September 23
Wisconsin Badgers +14 (2 Units)
Before I get into the fundamental reasons for taking the Badgers in what looks to be an easy win and cover for Michigan, let me just tell you that Wisconsin won me some nice cash money last week by covering the spread against San Diego State and I will gladly reward them in what should be a great follow up game to the little things they have been working on since the season began. The Badgers have lost their last three games in the BIG HOUSE but those games have been very close and I have a feeling that Bret Bilema wasn't showing much from his playbook last week and that this week we are going to see some fireworks from the Badgers offense. You have to understand that Wisconsin, even though they only have three returning starters on offense, are 3-0 heading into BIG 10 play and are 2-0 ATS which is something I am very happy to see. In their games against Bowling Green and Western Illinois, the Badgers offense was on fire but they did a nice little hide and react play against SD State and Bielema's Iowa teammate Long. They knew Michigan was going to be coming off a War with Notre Dame and they knew they had to make the Wolverines think this was a walk in the part type of game. Well it's not. The Badgers are averaging 343.3 total yards per game on 5.4 yards per play but they must go up against a Michigan defense that has allowed only 206.7 total yards per game this season but that are bound to have an off game after the Notre Dame game. On the ground, the Badgers continue to produce very good RB's as freshman PJ Hill has emerged as a top notch running back. Hill is almost at 500 rushing yards for the season and his power run game has been impressive. As a team, Wisconsin is rushing for 198.0 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Hill already has five touchdowns and he should create problems for a Michigan defense that is untested against the run and that has allowed only 20.7 rushing yards per game this season. That's about to change. In the air, QB John Stocco had his worst performance in years last game but he still managed to stay fresh for this game. The Badgers are passing for a decent 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season while Michigan's secondary has been great against ND but weaker earlier in the year. The Wolverine allow almost 200 passing yards per game but only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Stocco has to stay away from interceptions on this game and his receivers have to catch their balls this week. Michigan's defense is going to let their guard down and the Badgers have to pound on this hard.
The Michigan Wolverines have it all right now. They are coming off their biggest win in ages as they beat Notre Dame 47-21 in Southbend last weekend, they are still National Title contenders as other contenders are dropping off the map by the hour and Lloyd Carr feel his job is safe and the team has nothing to worry about. Well how about the start of the BIG 10 season which is pretty much all that should matter to this team and their fans. How quickly the betting public forgets about Michigan going 0-2 ATS at home this year and dropping the cash in their opening games against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Well this is the BIG 10 now and anything can happen to Michigan. Sure they remember last year's loss to the Badgers in Madison but the big question this week is...can they recover and shake that Notre Dame hangover off in time for this big potential upset game against Bret Bielema and his rolling Badgers? I see the hangover being a big problem. The Wolverines are averaging 38.3 points per game this season on an impressive 369.0 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. Wait a minute, does that mean that Wisconsin's offense is almost as good as Michigan's? I guess not but still. The problem for Michigan here is that Notre Dame's defense was bogus while Wisconsin's defense is the real deal. The Badgers have eight starters back on defense and have allowed only 223.7 total yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per play. Wow. They have allowed only 8.0 points per game and Michigan should have issues. On the ground, RB Mike Hart has been great and the Wolverines are rushing for 200+ yards per game but Wisconsin has been tested on the ground and they have responded by allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chad Henne is off to his best start yet but he has completed only 54.0% of his passes and has been very mistake prone at times. Apart from the Notre Dame game he looked lost at times and I see that happening again today. The Wolverines average 7.5 yards per pass attempt but are going up against a Wisconsin defense that allows only 4.0 yards per pass attempt and have three interceptions. Manningham and Breaston are not going to have the freedom or space that they had last week and Wisconsin might force a few turnovers that could change this game. I like Wisconsin to keep this close.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in their last seven September games.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 17
Kansas State Wildcats +14 (2 Units)
The Louisville Cardinals are not a team I would ever in my life bet against again after what happened to me in Week 1 but I am going to make this one and only exception and that exception comes for two particular reasons. First of all, QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush are the two all-stars on this team and both are out for this game and for quite some time. As much as I think that Louisville can still be one of the last teams standing at the end of this college ball season, going on without Bush wasn't such a big deal but going on without Brian Brohm is going to end up almost costing the Cardinals the game here. Second of all, the Cardinals are coming off a monster win over the Miami Hurricanes last week and much like the Michigan Wolverines, this is one hell of a great spot to fade them as we all anticipate quite the letdown against a Kansas State team that looks rather easy to beat. The Cardinals and Wolverines were the big winners on Seperation Saturday and now it's time for them to give the betting public a little something as they have letdown games in mind for this week. The Cardinals are averaging a massive 597.3 total yards of offense per game on 7.9 yards per pass attempt but expect those numbers to sink in this game as Brohm is out. The Kansas State Wildcats defense has been one of the best in the BIG 12 so far, allowing only 226.0 total yards per game on a tiny 3.6 yards per play. Sure the level of opponent wasn't that great but defense is defense and the Wildcats are returning eight players on defense. On the ground, RB George Stripling has been lights out and he leads a team that averages 256.7 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry. Withouth Brohm however, the Wildcats can concentrate on stopping the run as they have all season, allowing 64.3 rushing yards per game on 1.9 yards per carry. Impressive. In the air, replacement QB Hunter Cantwell is in, and he was great in his season debut. However, the big time pressure is on Cantwell now and this is the same kid that passed for five touchdowns and four interceptions less than a year ago. Cantwell and the passing game won't have their usual 10.8 yards per pass attempt as they face a K-State defense that allows only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and that have intercepted four passes already this season. I see the Wildcats and Raheem Morris (D-Coordinator who was with Gruden the last few years in Tampa) having success and we will finally be able to say that there is one team in the Country that was able to handle the Louisville offense. Sure the Cards are 3-0 ATS to start the year and yes they might still be there when the Bowl Games are announced and they wait to hear if they are going to be left out of the big game. However, Brohm being out is a big deal and this rowdy crowd is going to be jacked up baby.
The Kansas State Wildcats have not been to a Bowl Game since 2003 but they have looked damn good to start off the year (3-0) and new head coach Ron Prince has brought some much needed fresh air to this program. Bill Snyder Stadium is going to host the Wildcats for the fourth straight time this season and I really like that Kansas State has been thinking about this game for the longest time, yet have still been able to keep focus and beat the teams they should be beating. This is one loud place to play and they 50 000 or so in attendance for this game are going to let the home team know it. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1997 and although those were all Bill Snyder days, it tells you a lot about what opposing teams have to go through when they step onto that FieldTurf covered feel. I look for the crowd to have a huge influence on this game. The Wildcats definitely smell blood here as two Louisville superstars are out of business for this game and many more and let that be an indication that these guys will come out to play football. The Wildcats are averaging 303.3 total yards per game this season but have 5.4 yards per play which tells me that the offense is balanced. As good as Louisville's offense has been and can be, their defense has allowed 5.1 yards per play this season and Kansas State is going to take advantage of this. On the ground, RB Thomas Clayton has made it to Week 4 problem free this season and the Wildcats as a team are averaging 121.7 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. However, this game will have to be won through the air as the Cards defense is allowing only 34 rushing yards per game on 1.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Dylan Meier is the most experienced QB on the team but he has not been great. However, he has passed for almost 550 yards this season but needs to be careful with interceptions. As a team, the Widlcats pass for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and are up against a Louisville defense that has been shredded in the air and are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Meier needs to think big in this game and he needs to look for pressure, he needs to recognize the pressure and he needs to find his top two guys Norwood and Morreira deep for some big plays. We all know Louisville won't be the same as they usually are but Kansas State have to be agressive in this game and they have to make sure they play a smart game on offense and move the chains as often as possible. I see Kansas State being close at halftime before losing this in the fourth quarter.
Trend of the Game: Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
Louisville 24, Kansas State 23
Florida International Golden Panthers +18.5 (2 Units)
You're probably all asking yourselves why the hell I am betting on a team like the Golden Panthers when I have a plethora of other teams to chose from on this great football Saturday. Well the answer is simple and that is that Florida International is coming into Maryland with no pressure whatsoever and my play here is solely based on a fade Maryland strategy. What I find very interesting is that head coach Don Strock was a QB at Virginia Tech back in the 70's and he knows a thing or two about playing games against Maryland and playing games in College Park. The Panthers have played three games this season, have lost all three of those games but have covered the spread in two of three and came very close to beating Bowling Green last week. I know this is supposed to be a rebuilding year for these guys but based on the games against Middle Tennessee State and a very good South Florida team, I would say this team is coming together and that they are going to make some games very interesting this season. The Golden Panthers are averaging only 18 points per game so far this season which is nowhere near what they are capable of. They are averaging 283.7 total yards of offense on only 4.5 yards per play. However, the Panthers might not have to score too much in this one. Maryland's defense is allowing 338.0 total yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers are led by RB A'Mod Ned who busted out an 80 yarder earlier this season and who leads a running attack that averages only 3.6 yards per carry. After getting torched by Steve Slaton and the Mountaineers last week, you can bet that Maryland is going to work on their run defense this week which could make this a long slow boring game. In the air, QB Josh Padrick is a Senior and he has passed for 515 yards this season but only one touchdown. As a team, Florida International is passing for a decent 6.2 yards per pass attempt against three decent opponents while Maryland's defense has had some problems and has allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Like I said earlier, I don't expect much from the Florida International offense in this game, but hopefully they can get some first downs and their defense can hold like they have several times this season. Don't forget Florida International's game at Kansas State last year where they lost by only 14 points as a 33 points underdog.
The Maryland Terrapins don't even want to remember or know what happened last Thursday night in their 45-24 blowout loss to West Virginia, but what this team really wants to know is why they have to play against one of the newest teams in I-A football right before their BYE week? It doesn't sound fair and I am guessing that it was pretty damn hard to get a team motivated to play such a low caliber right before you take the big break and regroup to finish off the season on a high. The Terps have responded well to games prior to a BYE week in the past but those were games against much better schools, where it was easy to get motivated and the guys wanted to play their asses off. That's not the case here. The Terps have yet to be impressive in any of their games this season and I don't see why they should do any better in a game where the visiting team is probably on every fans unkown list. The game looks like a walk in the park but Fridge probably didn't work too hard in practice this week and my guess is that he hopes to slide by in this game and watch his team practice hard next week and the week after in anticipation of the Georgia Tech and Virginia road games coming up after the break. The Terps are averaging a decent 324.3 total yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per play. However, the Florida International defense has been great as they have allowed only 272.3 total yards per game this season on only 4.4 yards per play. They have some of the quickets LB's and DL's in the SunBelt and I see the Terps feeling under pressure all game. On the ground is where the Terps have had success as they are rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and are led by RB Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball. Problem here is that the Golden Panthers have good penetration up the middle and they allow only 122.7 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. Impressive. In the air, Maryland QB Sam Hollenbach is not off to a good start this season and he needs to be careful here. The Terps are passing for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt while Florida International's secondary is very fast and very underrated as they allow only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and have intercepted five passes this season. It could be a late Hollenbach interception that makes this game a winner for us Panthers backers. However, the spot is very good to fade Maryland here as they look forward to the BYE week where they are going to do the real rebuilding of this team and rebuilding of gameday strategies. This game is for the guys to go out and have fun while keeping it close.
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games that follows a game where they allowed 200+ rushing yards.
Maryland 30, Florida International 14
Florida Atlantic-South Carolina 'OVER' 41 (2 units)
Ummm...yeah. It's time to let the dogs out and the dogs are definitely coming out in this game. The Florida Atlantic Owls don't even have to show up in this game for me to hit this play because this is going to be a Steve Spurrier air assault that gets pretty damn ugly in the second half. Think of it. The Owls have allowed 54, 45 and 48 points in their three games this season and they are playing on the road for the fourth straight game against a team that has done nothing on offense. I can't even begin to tell you how ugly this game is going to get and how I really really believe that South Carolina is going to pass the 41 point mark themselves. This Owls team is returning 15 starters this season but they are all virtually new to the program and there is not much a team can do or learn while being on the road for the fourth straight week. It's a disaster right now. The Owls, im afraid, might not get more than a measly field goal if at all in this game but it really doesn't bother me. The faster they get off the field and let the SC offense on the field, the better things are going to be for me and my OVER. The Owls are averaging 4.7 points per game this season which is pretty damn sad but how long can this keep going? They do average 219.0 total yards per game and have averged only 6 first downs per game, something I don't even see them reaching in this game. The Owls don't have a running game to speak but they might get a little something going in this game because the Gamecocks defense has had problems topping the run and they have allowed 185.0 rushing yards per game so far on 4.3 yards per carry. RB Charles Pierre is not a guy that can get you first downs and what I like once again is that the Owls are going to be giving South Carolina great field position all game in this one, which should result in a ton of points from Spurrier's guys. QB's Rusty Smith and Sean Clayton have both thrown two interpcetions and no TD's this season and neither one of them has been able to complete more than 50% of their passes. The South Carolina defense is going to pick these guys off 3-4 times in this game and they are going to bring enough pressure that we should see fumbles and we should see lightning quick scores from the Gamecocks and possibly from the Gamecocks defense in this one. The OVER is going to be won by Florida Atlantic's inability to move the chains and the good field position will constantly be handed over the South Carolina.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are coming off a very strange 27-20 over Wofford last week and something tells me inside that Steve Spurrier was not happy with the way this game was played and something else tells me that Spurrier and his guys are going to unleash an atomic bomb on the Owls in this game. Things have been boiling over since South Carolina and their Spurrie offense was shutout against Georgia two weeks ago. The Gamecocks have not taken their anger out on the field for that one yet and the Florida Atlantic Owls are just a team that happens to be rolling into Columbia at the wrong part of the season. The Gamecocks don't want to reveal too much seeing that they have a big game against Auburn next week but they do want to work on enough stuff to know that they can use them in the Auburn game so using this game as an offensive practice is going to be very important. The Gamecocks better be ready to score some points in this game because we all saw what a lack of scoring punch did to LSU last week and the same will happen to SC if they don't have a good performance today. The Gamecocks average only 14 points per game this season and although they did average 23.7 points per game last season, they still had performances of 45, 44, 35 and 30 points at different points through the season. I definitely see them scoring 40 points on this Florida Atlantic team. The Gamecocks average 295.7 total yards of offense this season on only 5.6 yards per play but here is the gift. Florida Atlantic's defense is atrocious, they are tired and they are playing their fourth straight on the road having now allowed 49.0 points per game this season on 6.5 yards per play. Wow...that's incredible. On the ground, RB Cory Boyd has been outstanding this season even though he has not been used much by Spurrier. The Gamecocks rush for only 92.0 yards per game so far but look for that to improve against an Owls defense that is allowing 223.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. The door is open for Boyd and Mike Davis to make some huge plays. As for the air game, QB Syvell Newton is starting this game and QB Blake Mitchell will at one point come in after serving his one game suspension. Newton is going to set off fireworks early in this one as he is completing 68.4% of his passes and has thrown one touchdown pass. Newton has passed for 252 yards in 19 pass attempts while Mitchell passed for 247 yards this season on 44 attempts. As a team, the Gamecocks average 7.6 yards per pass attempt and should have no problems throwing the deep ball to WR Sidney Rice all game as Florida Altantic is allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt and have virtually no chance of stopping Rice from getting at least three touchdowns in this game. Rice does not have a single TD this season and I am sure he is going to have his coming out party in this game bring us some nice cash doing so.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 8-0 in South Carolina's last eight home games versus a team with a losing record.
South Carolina 52, Florida Atlantic 6
Tulane-LSU 'OVER' 48 (2 Units)
Uh oh. Did the Tulane Green Wave just walk into Mississippi State and score an incredible 32 points to win by a score of 32-29??? Yes they did and this is another one of those classic cases where they don't really have to do much on offense because LSU is going to do all the talking, walking, scoring and bone jarring. Don't forget also that several of these players know each other from High School, this being an all Louisiana battle between two old rivals. The Tulane Green Wave are coming off a win and a loss but must now play their third straight road game which can be very tough on teams like that. Tulane have lost 14 straight games to LSU and the average score in those 14 games was 33-16 for the Tigers which would definitely mean that these two teams are averaging more than the 48 points in their meetings. Tulane have some pretty damn talented players on this team and although they won't be shutout in this game, it will only take the 7-10 points from the Green Wave to ensure that this game passes with flying colors. The Green Wave are averaging a very decent 19.5 points per game this season and althoug LSU has not allowed more than 7 points in any game this season, the Tigers should have somewhat of a defensive letdown after the effort they gave against Auburn last week. Games like that in the SEC are killer. Tulane is averaging 328.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play which they are going to need in this one as LSU allows only 170.0 yards per game this season on a very tiny and impressive 3.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Matt Forte has the quickness and ability to break some decent yardage plays and he should be jacked up to run seeing that he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. LSU do not allow much on the ground, which is good because the Green Wave will have to pass and the clock will stop. QB Lester Ricard is a very underrated QB in college football and he has been quite good in the games they have played. Lester has completed 62.5% of his passes for 459 yards and five touchdowns with only one interception. The Green Wave as a team are passing for a very impressive 8.9 yards per pass attempt but they have to be careful for an LSU secondary that is averaging two interceptions per game and that may very well take one to the big house if Lester gets careless. You know the pressure is going to come but I also do know that Lester will make some big plays and Tulane will record the highest point total scored on LSU this season. As long as Tulane can go three and out when they have to and they can score points without eating up too much clock, the OVER is very reachable and has always been in this series.
The LSU Tigers are coming off a war with Auburn and like I mentioned in my previous paragraph, it was a defensive war and the LSU defense is going to struggle to recover in time for what looks to be a somewhat prolific or hard working bunch from Tulane. In-State rivalries are always dangerous and they always tend to be high scoring. As I was saying, several players on both teams played against each other in high school and both teams are going to want to make a statement. LSU is coming off that Auburn loss where they scored only 3 points after combining for 90 points in their first two games against Arizona and Louisiana Lafayetter. Well the Tulane Green Wave defense is pretty much like those two teams which would mean that LSU will bounce back from one of their lowest point output in a while and kick the living crap out of Tulane. I also have to mention that this is Homecoming week for LSU and the players are taking part in tons of activities and rallies with fans so they should come out firing in this game. Their last 11 homecoming games have seen an average of 50 points per game and this should be no different this time around. The LSU Tigers are averaging 31 points per game and their reponse to that poor performance last week should be huge. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 413.7 total yards per game this season on 6.9 yards per play. The Tulane defense is allowing 37 points per game this season on an insane 493.5 total yards allowed per game on 6.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Alley Broussard should have his breakout game of the season as the Green Wave allow 173.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. LSU is averaging 147.7 rushing yards per game but on 4.6 yards per carry. Things should get very interesting once QB Jamarcus Russell decides it's time to drop bombs on Tulane. Russell has passed for 718 yards this season and completed 63.9% of his passes while doing so. LSU as a team is passing for a whopping 9.6 yards per pass attempt while the Tulane Green Wave team are allowing 320.5 passing yards per game this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Russell should be able to throw for 350+ yards in this game, hitting his all-star lineup of WR's who are each going to get a touchdown in this game and who are going to be about 20 times to quick for all Tulane defenders which should make this game a lot of fun to watch. Blowout time in Baton Rouge for this one as two old rivals collide and give us a nice little shootout again. LSU have all the tools in the world to cover this number themselves but I don't see it happening as Tulane are going to score a few times to ensure that this game is sent OVER the total.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in LSU's last seven non-conference games.
LSU 44, Tulane 13
RECAP:
Virginia +17
Northwestern-Nevada 'Over' 48.5
Wisconsin +14
Kansas State +14
Florida International +18.5
Florida Atlantic-South Carolina 'Over' 41
Tulane-LSU 'Over' 48
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
2006 CFB ATS Record: 16-14 ATS (+3.70)
2006 CFB O/U Record: 4-1 (+1.50 Units)
PLAYS OF THE WEEK: 0-1
I went 5-2 last week and I am now 12-5 the last two weeks and things are starting to pick up. I am capping each game for about 20-30 minutes using all variables, intangibles and fundamental values. College Football is fun to cap and I find it quite easy to cap. Let's make some money this week and let's kick some ass.
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Thursday, September 21
Virginia Cavaliers +17 (2 Units)
The obvious choice in this one would be Georgia Tech because the not only do home favs cover almost all the time on Nationally televised weekday games, but the Virginia Cavaliers are in a rebuilding year and looking like they have never played a game of football before. Sure that's the case but that's not how this game is going to play itself out. The Cavaliers are coming off an embarassing 17-10 loss to Western Michigan at home on Saturday and don't think for one second that the few days of practice the team had this week were easy. Al Groh is pissed off and he let his team know after last game. The team is now 1-2 heading into ACC play but something tells me that this being the ACC opener for the Cavs, we are going to see a different Al Groh team out there. Rather than think about their loss to WMU all week, the players have only five days to recover and that is the best thing for this team. For some of you who didnd't already know this, Redshirt Freshman QB Jameel Sewell is making his debut in this game. Hewell knows this offense very well and he was given six snaps every practice with the first team offense in the second half of 2005. Sure the kid will be nervous but his size and speed will really mix things up and give some different looks. The offense is averaging only 223.3 total yards per game on 3.9 yards per play but I expect that to change with Sewell against a GTech defense that allows only 4.0 yards per play this season. On the ground, the Cavaliers have had nothing. 50 yards rushing per game on 2.1 yards per carry is pathetic and things won't get any better against a defense that has completely shut down the run this year and allowed less than 300 yards rushing all season. In the air, Sewell is said to have a good arm and he showed by completing 7 of the 11 passes he has thrown this year. He should help improve on the 5.0 yards per pass attempt that the Cavs are averaging right now. Georgia Tech is very beatable in the air but most teams have not tried much against them. They allow only 5.0 yards per pass attempt but have allowed 192.0 passing yards per game to this point meaning that Sewell might have success in his debut. Interceptions have killed the Cavaliers but luckily Sewell seems to have a good head on his shoulders and he seesm to be able to move well enough. I look for Virginia to establish somewhat of a run game early, setting up nice yardage plays in the air for Sewell who should hook up with breakout WR Kevin Ogletree in this one. I really live the Cavs to keep this game close enough to cover.
The Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets have a +.500 record when the underdog in games over the last six years but they are only 20-27-1 as favorites over that same period of time and I just don't see how they are going to be jacked up for a game against what looks to be a very easy going Virginia team. Well Chan Gailey better let his guys know that Virginia is still Virginia and that if his team takes them lightly, they might actually come close to losing this game. They have a horrible ATS history when it comes to playing on Thursday nights and now they have to play against a new QB that nobody knows anything about. Motivation is the key for the Jackets in this game and like I mentioned before, I have a feeling that they are not very motivated and might get caught sleeping quite a few times. The Jackets are 2-1 on the year and are coming off a 35-20 win over the Troy Trojans and the game against Virginia Tech next week might be all the Jackets are thinking about in this one. The Jackets are averaging 27.7 points per game so far this year on offense on 360.7 yards per game and 5.6 yards per play. However, what people fail to look at in this matchup is that Virginia may not have much offense but their defense has kept games close and their defense has more returning starters than GT. Virginia is allowing only 294.3 total yards per game on 5.1 yards per play. On the ground, the Jackets have been outstanding and they usually beat teams with a strong running game. Led by QB Reggie Ball and RB Tashard Choice, they average 207.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. However, the Virginia defense has not allowed any big rushing performances and are allowing only 3.9 yards per carry this season which may slow down the GTech offense and make them throw the ball, something Reggie Ball doesn't want to do. I say that because Ball is completing only 50.7% of his passes, and although he has thrown 5 TD passes, he has also thrown 3 interceptions. The Jackets average only 5.2 yards per pass attempt and in order to beat the Cavaliers by 17 points or more, you need an efficient passing game, something Georgia Tech doesn't have. The Cavs have been shredded in the air for some big plays but if they can force Ball into making some mistakes which is guaranteed to happen, they should have success on both sides of the ball in this game and somewhat shutting down the GTech offense is going to be very possible. I see Virginia forcing a few key turnovers to ensure the cover.
Trend of the Game: Virginia is 5-1 ATS in their last six games as underdogs of 10.5 points or more.
Georgia Tech 26, Virginia 20
Friday, September 22
Northwestern-Nevada 'Over' 48.5 (2 Units)
I know exactly what's going on with this line. The over/under opened at something like 54.5 and his since dropped to 47.5 at some books. Well I dropped my cash on this game at 48.5 and although I would love to have the ever so dropping line that is now being offered, I don't see myself losing this one at all. Northwestern is coming off a 14-6 win over Eastern Michigan and that is probably why this line is being pounded hard on the UNDER as the betting public expects to low scoring to continue trend. Well think again you bunch of sheep. This program has been in sever turmoil since the death of head coach Randy Walker in the off-season but the emtional rollercoaster is on a break right now and Northwestern gets to go away from home for the first time without talk of Walker's death and as bad as it sounds, I seem them coming out guns blazing in this game. The Wildcats are averaging only 17.3 points per game this season but they have shown signs of life by putting up 309.0 yards of offense per game. Sure that's nothing to get excited about but like I mentioned before, the two home games we very emotional and now that the setting is different, the Wildcats can get back to business. The best part about it is that Nevada's defense is allowing a whopping 5.8 yards per play this season and the Wildcats might be able to score 30 for the first time this year. On the ground, stud RB Tyrell Sutton has already rushed for 245 yards this season while QB Mike Kafka has been very impressive rushing for 164 yards. As a team, the Wildcats run for 179.3 rushing yards per game on 4.6 yards per carry. The running game should really kick ass in this one as Nevada's defense is weak against the run and they allow 4.5 yards per carry. Sutton is going to have some huge plays in this one and should rush for 150+ yards in total and two touchdowns. In the air, QB Mike Kafka has done a decent job but now it's time to unleash his big league arm. Kafka can really run the ball and he has completed 62.7% of his passes for one touchdown and two interpcetions on 355 passing yards. The Wildcats average 5.2 yards per pass attempt this season but with Sutton eating up big time yards on the ground, Kafka should be able to unload on a Nevada secondary that allows a whopping 7.2 yards per pass attempt on almost 200 passing yard per game. The Wildcats don't have a passing touchdown this season but look for WR Shaun Herbert to have a huge game as he was the top receiver on this team last year and he should have some huge plays downfield in this one. Tons of points in line for Northwestern here. Nevada is allowing 30.0 points per game this season and that's about to get worst.
The Nevada Wolfpack have always been known for their scoring ability. They have averaged 25 points per game or more in four of the last five seasons and with seven memebers of their offense returning this season, we have not yet seen what the Wolfpack can really do with all the weapons that coach Ault has at his disposal. Well in this game you are about to see an air and ground assault like we haven't seen all season from the Wolfpack and people who have money on the UNDER thinking that the line movement means something, are in for a huge surprise as we might reach 40 points by halftime. This is really a bogus line and I don't know who decided to make a game between these two teams, anything less than 55-60 points. Regardless, I see it as an early Christmas present and will gladly collect some nice money off a Vegas mistake. Nevada are coming off their first win of the year as they spanked Colorado State 28-10 last weekend but the offense still wasn't as sharp as they should. They are averaging 338.0 total yards of offense per game on only 5.0 yards per play. However, Northwestern's defense has been badly overachieving this season as they have allowed only 14.3 points per game on 236.7 yards per game and 4.1 yards per play. This coming from a defense that has allowed an average of almost 35 points per game over the last five seasons. NW has played against Miami Ohio, New Hampshire and Eastern Michigan and I don't think all three times combined could come close to what Nevada brings to the table on offense. On the ground, Nevada is averaging 151.0 rushing yards per game on 4.0 yards per carry buy RB Robert Hubbard won't be able to kill time off the clock in this one as NW's run defense has allowed only 2.8 yards per carry so far this season. As for the air game, QB Jeff Rowe has completed 64% of his passes for 554 passing yards and five touchdowns. The Wolfpack as a team are passing for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and are going up against a Northwestern team that have allowed only 5.7 yards per pass attempt this season but that have not played a team of Nevada's caliber. WR Caleb Spencer leads the team in receiving yards but he has been held without a touchdown and that should all change as Rowe will hook up a few times with his standout superstar receiver. The only way to beat Northwestern in this game is going to be to trade blows because a defense battle would be risky and the Wolfpack have a much better chance if they just start putting up as many points as they can on the board for Northwestern to sink as the match goes. The line might keep dropping and you might want to wait but my advice is to pound now and let's see a FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS type of shootout by these two teams.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 9-2 in Nevada's last 11 games following a win.
Nevada 38, Northwestern 35
Saturday, September 23
Wisconsin Badgers +14 (2 Units)
Before I get into the fundamental reasons for taking the Badgers in what looks to be an easy win and cover for Michigan, let me just tell you that Wisconsin won me some nice cash money last week by covering the spread against San Diego State and I will gladly reward them in what should be a great follow up game to the little things they have been working on since the season began. The Badgers have lost their last three games in the BIG HOUSE but those games have been very close and I have a feeling that Bret Bilema wasn't showing much from his playbook last week and that this week we are going to see some fireworks from the Badgers offense. You have to understand that Wisconsin, even though they only have three returning starters on offense, are 3-0 heading into BIG 10 play and are 2-0 ATS which is something I am very happy to see. In their games against Bowling Green and Western Illinois, the Badgers offense was on fire but they did a nice little hide and react play against SD State and Bielema's Iowa teammate Long. They knew Michigan was going to be coming off a War with Notre Dame and they knew they had to make the Wolverines think this was a walk in the part type of game. Well it's not. The Badgers are averaging 343.3 total yards per game on 5.4 yards per play but they must go up against a Michigan defense that has allowed only 206.7 total yards per game this season but that are bound to have an off game after the Notre Dame game. On the ground, the Badgers continue to produce very good RB's as freshman PJ Hill has emerged as a top notch running back. Hill is almost at 500 rushing yards for the season and his power run game has been impressive. As a team, Wisconsin is rushing for 198.0 yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry. Hill already has five touchdowns and he should create problems for a Michigan defense that is untested against the run and that has allowed only 20.7 rushing yards per game this season. That's about to change. In the air, QB John Stocco had his worst performance in years last game but he still managed to stay fresh for this game. The Badgers are passing for a decent 6.6 yards per pass attempt this season while Michigan's secondary has been great against ND but weaker earlier in the year. The Wolverine allow almost 200 passing yards per game but only 4.9 yards per pass attempt. Stocco has to stay away from interceptions on this game and his receivers have to catch their balls this week. Michigan's defense is going to let their guard down and the Badgers have to pound on this hard.
The Michigan Wolverines have it all right now. They are coming off their biggest win in ages as they beat Notre Dame 47-21 in Southbend last weekend, they are still National Title contenders as other contenders are dropping off the map by the hour and Lloyd Carr feel his job is safe and the team has nothing to worry about. Well how about the start of the BIG 10 season which is pretty much all that should matter to this team and their fans. How quickly the betting public forgets about Michigan going 0-2 ATS at home this year and dropping the cash in their opening games against Northern Illinois and Central Michigan. Well this is the BIG 10 now and anything can happen to Michigan. Sure they remember last year's loss to the Badgers in Madison but the big question this week is...can they recover and shake that Notre Dame hangover off in time for this big potential upset game against Bret Bielema and his rolling Badgers? I see the hangover being a big problem. The Wolverines are averaging 38.3 points per game this season on an impressive 369.0 total yards per game and 5.3 yards per play. Wait a minute, does that mean that Wisconsin's offense is almost as good as Michigan's? I guess not but still. The problem for Michigan here is that Notre Dame's defense was bogus while Wisconsin's defense is the real deal. The Badgers have eight starters back on defense and have allowed only 223.7 total yards per game this season on 3.7 yards per play. Wow. They have allowed only 8.0 points per game and Michigan should have issues. On the ground, RB Mike Hart has been great and the Wolverines are rushing for 200+ yards per game but Wisconsin has been tested on the ground and they have responded by allowing only 3.5 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chad Henne is off to his best start yet but he has completed only 54.0% of his passes and has been very mistake prone at times. Apart from the Notre Dame game he looked lost at times and I see that happening again today. The Wolverines average 7.5 yards per pass attempt but are going up against a Wisconsin defense that allows only 4.0 yards per pass attempt and have three interceptions. Manningham and Breaston are not going to have the freedom or space that they had last week and Wisconsin might force a few turnovers that could change this game. I like Wisconsin to keep this close.
Trend of the Game: Wisconsin is 7-0 ATS in their last seven September games.
Michigan 24 Wisconsin 17
Kansas State Wildcats +14 (2 Units)
The Louisville Cardinals are not a team I would ever in my life bet against again after what happened to me in Week 1 but I am going to make this one and only exception and that exception comes for two particular reasons. First of all, QB Brian Brohm and RB Michael Bush are the two all-stars on this team and both are out for this game and for quite some time. As much as I think that Louisville can still be one of the last teams standing at the end of this college ball season, going on without Bush wasn't such a big deal but going on without Brian Brohm is going to end up almost costing the Cardinals the game here. Second of all, the Cardinals are coming off a monster win over the Miami Hurricanes last week and much like the Michigan Wolverines, this is one hell of a great spot to fade them as we all anticipate quite the letdown against a Kansas State team that looks rather easy to beat. The Cardinals and Wolverines were the big winners on Seperation Saturday and now it's time for them to give the betting public a little something as they have letdown games in mind for this week. The Cardinals are averaging a massive 597.3 total yards of offense per game on 7.9 yards per pass attempt but expect those numbers to sink in this game as Brohm is out. The Kansas State Wildcats defense has been one of the best in the BIG 12 so far, allowing only 226.0 total yards per game on a tiny 3.6 yards per play. Sure the level of opponent wasn't that great but defense is defense and the Wildcats are returning eight players on defense. On the ground, RB George Stripling has been lights out and he leads a team that averages 256.7 rushing yards per game on 6.0 yards per carry. Withouth Brohm however, the Wildcats can concentrate on stopping the run as they have all season, allowing 64.3 rushing yards per game on 1.9 yards per carry. Impressive. In the air, replacement QB Hunter Cantwell is in, and he was great in his season debut. However, the big time pressure is on Cantwell now and this is the same kid that passed for five touchdowns and four interceptions less than a year ago. Cantwell and the passing game won't have their usual 10.8 yards per pass attempt as they face a K-State defense that allows only 5.4 yards per pass attempt and that have intercepted four passes already this season. I see the Wildcats and Raheem Morris (D-Coordinator who was with Gruden the last few years in Tampa) having success and we will finally be able to say that there is one team in the Country that was able to handle the Louisville offense. Sure the Cards are 3-0 ATS to start the year and yes they might still be there when the Bowl Games are announced and they wait to hear if they are going to be left out of the big game. However, Brohm being out is a big deal and this rowdy crowd is going to be jacked up baby.
The Kansas State Wildcats have not been to a Bowl Game since 2003 but they have looked damn good to start off the year (3-0) and new head coach Ron Prince has brought some much needed fresh air to this program. Bill Snyder Stadium is going to host the Wildcats for the fourth straight time this season and I really like that Kansas State has been thinking about this game for the longest time, yet have still been able to keep focus and beat the teams they should be beating. This is one loud place to play and they 50 000 or so in attendance for this game are going to let the home team know it. The Wildcats are 5-0 ATS as a home underdog since 1997 and although those were all Bill Snyder days, it tells you a lot about what opposing teams have to go through when they step onto that FieldTurf covered feel. I look for the crowd to have a huge influence on this game. The Wildcats definitely smell blood here as two Louisville superstars are out of business for this game and many more and let that be an indication that these guys will come out to play football. The Wildcats are averaging 303.3 total yards per game this season but have 5.4 yards per play which tells me that the offense is balanced. As good as Louisville's offense has been and can be, their defense has allowed 5.1 yards per play this season and Kansas State is going to take advantage of this. On the ground, RB Thomas Clayton has made it to Week 4 problem free this season and the Wildcats as a team are averaging 121.7 rushing yards per game on 4.3 yards per carry. However, this game will have to be won through the air as the Cards defense is allowing only 34 rushing yards per game on 1.4 yards per carry. In the air, QB Dylan Meier is the most experienced QB on the team but he has not been great. However, he has passed for almost 550 yards this season but needs to be careful with interceptions. As a team, the Widlcats pass for 6.4 yards per pass attempt and are up against a Louisville defense that has been shredded in the air and are allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt. Meier needs to think big in this game and he needs to look for pressure, he needs to recognize the pressure and he needs to find his top two guys Norwood and Morreira deep for some big plays. We all know Louisville won't be the same as they usually are but Kansas State have to be agressive in this game and they have to make sure they play a smart game on offense and move the chains as often as possible. I see Kansas State being close at halftime before losing this in the fourth quarter.
Trend of the Game: Kansas State is 7-0 ATS in their last seven home games.
Louisville 24, Kansas State 23
Florida International Golden Panthers +18.5 (2 Units)
You're probably all asking yourselves why the hell I am betting on a team like the Golden Panthers when I have a plethora of other teams to chose from on this great football Saturday. Well the answer is simple and that is that Florida International is coming into Maryland with no pressure whatsoever and my play here is solely based on a fade Maryland strategy. What I find very interesting is that head coach Don Strock was a QB at Virginia Tech back in the 70's and he knows a thing or two about playing games against Maryland and playing games in College Park. The Panthers have played three games this season, have lost all three of those games but have covered the spread in two of three and came very close to beating Bowling Green last week. I know this is supposed to be a rebuilding year for these guys but based on the games against Middle Tennessee State and a very good South Florida team, I would say this team is coming together and that they are going to make some games very interesting this season. The Golden Panthers are averaging only 18 points per game so far this season which is nowhere near what they are capable of. They are averaging 283.7 total yards of offense on only 4.5 yards per play. However, the Panthers might not have to score too much in this one. Maryland's defense is allowing 338.0 total yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per play. On the ground, the Panthers are led by RB A'Mod Ned who busted out an 80 yarder earlier this season and who leads a running attack that averages only 3.6 yards per carry. After getting torched by Steve Slaton and the Mountaineers last week, you can bet that Maryland is going to work on their run defense this week which could make this a long slow boring game. In the air, QB Josh Padrick is a Senior and he has passed for 515 yards this season but only one touchdown. As a team, Florida International is passing for a decent 6.2 yards per pass attempt against three decent opponents while Maryland's defense has had some problems and has allowed 5.9 yards per pass attempt. Like I said earlier, I don't expect much from the Florida International offense in this game, but hopefully they can get some first downs and their defense can hold like they have several times this season. Don't forget Florida International's game at Kansas State last year where they lost by only 14 points as a 33 points underdog.
The Maryland Terrapins don't even want to remember or know what happened last Thursday night in their 45-24 blowout loss to West Virginia, but what this team really wants to know is why they have to play against one of the newest teams in I-A football right before their BYE week? It doesn't sound fair and I am guessing that it was pretty damn hard to get a team motivated to play such a low caliber right before you take the big break and regroup to finish off the season on a high. The Terps have responded well to games prior to a BYE week in the past but those were games against much better schools, where it was easy to get motivated and the guys wanted to play their asses off. That's not the case here. The Terps have yet to be impressive in any of their games this season and I don't see why they should do any better in a game where the visiting team is probably on every fans unkown list. The game looks like a walk in the park but Fridge probably didn't work too hard in practice this week and my guess is that he hopes to slide by in this game and watch his team practice hard next week and the week after in anticipation of the Georgia Tech and Virginia road games coming up after the break. The Terps are averaging a decent 324.3 total yards per game this season on 5.2 yards per play. However, the Florida International defense has been great as they have allowed only 272.3 total yards per game this season on only 4.4 yards per play. They have some of the quickets LB's and DL's in the SunBelt and I see the Terps feeling under pressure all game. On the ground is where the Terps have had success as they are rushing for 4.4 yards per carry and are led by RB Keon Lattimore and Lance Ball. Problem here is that the Golden Panthers have good penetration up the middle and they allow only 122.7 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. Impressive. In the air, Maryland QB Sam Hollenbach is not off to a good start this season and he needs to be careful here. The Terps are passing for only 6.2 yards per pass attempt while Florida International's secondary is very fast and very underrated as they allow only 5.9 yards per pass attempt and have intercepted five passes this season. It could be a late Hollenbach interception that makes this game a winner for us Panthers backers. However, the spot is very good to fade Maryland here as they look forward to the BYE week where they are going to do the real rebuilding of this team and rebuilding of gameday strategies. This game is for the guys to go out and have fun while keeping it close.
Trend of the Game: Maryland is 0-7 ATS in their last seven games that follows a game where they allowed 200+ rushing yards.
Maryland 30, Florida International 14
Florida Atlantic-South Carolina 'OVER' 41 (2 units)
Ummm...yeah. It's time to let the dogs out and the dogs are definitely coming out in this game. The Florida Atlantic Owls don't even have to show up in this game for me to hit this play because this is going to be a Steve Spurrier air assault that gets pretty damn ugly in the second half. Think of it. The Owls have allowed 54, 45 and 48 points in their three games this season and they are playing on the road for the fourth straight game against a team that has done nothing on offense. I can't even begin to tell you how ugly this game is going to get and how I really really believe that South Carolina is going to pass the 41 point mark themselves. This Owls team is returning 15 starters this season but they are all virtually new to the program and there is not much a team can do or learn while being on the road for the fourth straight week. It's a disaster right now. The Owls, im afraid, might not get more than a measly field goal if at all in this game but it really doesn't bother me. The faster they get off the field and let the SC offense on the field, the better things are going to be for me and my OVER. The Owls are averaging 4.7 points per game this season which is pretty damn sad but how long can this keep going? They do average 219.0 total yards per game and have averged only 6 first downs per game, something I don't even see them reaching in this game. The Owls don't have a running game to speak but they might get a little something going in this game because the Gamecocks defense has had problems topping the run and they have allowed 185.0 rushing yards per game so far on 4.3 yards per carry. RB Charles Pierre is not a guy that can get you first downs and what I like once again is that the Owls are going to be giving South Carolina great field position all game in this one, which should result in a ton of points from Spurrier's guys. QB's Rusty Smith and Sean Clayton have both thrown two interpcetions and no TD's this season and neither one of them has been able to complete more than 50% of their passes. The South Carolina defense is going to pick these guys off 3-4 times in this game and they are going to bring enough pressure that we should see fumbles and we should see lightning quick scores from the Gamecocks and possibly from the Gamecocks defense in this one. The OVER is going to be won by Florida Atlantic's inability to move the chains and the good field position will constantly be handed over the South Carolina.
The South Carolina Gamecocks are coming off a very strange 27-20 over Wofford last week and something tells me inside that Steve Spurrier was not happy with the way this game was played and something else tells me that Spurrier and his guys are going to unleash an atomic bomb on the Owls in this game. Things have been boiling over since South Carolina and their Spurrie offense was shutout against Georgia two weeks ago. The Gamecocks have not taken their anger out on the field for that one yet and the Florida Atlantic Owls are just a team that happens to be rolling into Columbia at the wrong part of the season. The Gamecocks don't want to reveal too much seeing that they have a big game against Auburn next week but they do want to work on enough stuff to know that they can use them in the Auburn game so using this game as an offensive practice is going to be very important. The Gamecocks better be ready to score some points in this game because we all saw what a lack of scoring punch did to LSU last week and the same will happen to SC if they don't have a good performance today. The Gamecocks average only 14 points per game this season and although they did average 23.7 points per game last season, they still had performances of 45, 44, 35 and 30 points at different points through the season. I definitely see them scoring 40 points on this Florida Atlantic team. The Gamecocks average 295.7 total yards of offense this season on only 5.6 yards per play but here is the gift. Florida Atlantic's defense is atrocious, they are tired and they are playing their fourth straight on the road having now allowed 49.0 points per game this season on 6.5 yards per play. Wow...that's incredible. On the ground, RB Cory Boyd has been outstanding this season even though he has not been used much by Spurrier. The Gamecocks rush for only 92.0 yards per game so far but look for that to improve against an Owls defense that is allowing 223.3 rushing yards per game on 5.9 yards per carry. The door is open for Boyd and Mike Davis to make some huge plays. As for the air game, QB Syvell Newton is starting this game and QB Blake Mitchell will at one point come in after serving his one game suspension. Newton is going to set off fireworks early in this one as he is completing 68.4% of his passes and has thrown one touchdown pass. Newton has passed for 252 yards in 19 pass attempts while Mitchell passed for 247 yards this season on 44 attempts. As a team, the Gamecocks average 7.6 yards per pass attempt and should have no problems throwing the deep ball to WR Sidney Rice all game as Florida Altantic is allowing 7.4 yards per pass attempt and have virtually no chance of stopping Rice from getting at least three touchdowns in this game. Rice does not have a single TD this season and I am sure he is going to have his coming out party in this game bring us some nice cash doing so.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 8-0 in South Carolina's last eight home games versus a team with a losing record.
South Carolina 52, Florida Atlantic 6
Tulane-LSU 'OVER' 48 (2 Units)
Uh oh. Did the Tulane Green Wave just walk into Mississippi State and score an incredible 32 points to win by a score of 32-29??? Yes they did and this is another one of those classic cases where they don't really have to do much on offense because LSU is going to do all the talking, walking, scoring and bone jarring. Don't forget also that several of these players know each other from High School, this being an all Louisiana battle between two old rivals. The Tulane Green Wave are coming off a win and a loss but must now play their third straight road game which can be very tough on teams like that. Tulane have lost 14 straight games to LSU and the average score in those 14 games was 33-16 for the Tigers which would definitely mean that these two teams are averaging more than the 48 points in their meetings. Tulane have some pretty damn talented players on this team and although they won't be shutout in this game, it will only take the 7-10 points from the Green Wave to ensure that this game passes with flying colors. The Green Wave are averaging a very decent 19.5 points per game this season and althoug LSU has not allowed more than 7 points in any game this season, the Tigers should have somewhat of a defensive letdown after the effort they gave against Auburn last week. Games like that in the SEC are killer. Tulane is averaging 328.0 total yards per game on 5.9 yards per play which they are going to need in this one as LSU allows only 170.0 yards per game this season on a very tiny and impressive 3.1 yards per play. On the ground, RB Matt Forte has the quickness and ability to break some decent yardage plays and he should be jacked up to run seeing that he averaged 4.3 yards per carry. LSU do not allow much on the ground, which is good because the Green Wave will have to pass and the clock will stop. QB Lester Ricard is a very underrated QB in college football and he has been quite good in the games they have played. Lester has completed 62.5% of his passes for 459 yards and five touchdowns with only one interception. The Green Wave as a team are passing for a very impressive 8.9 yards per pass attempt but they have to be careful for an LSU secondary that is averaging two interceptions per game and that may very well take one to the big house if Lester gets careless. You know the pressure is going to come but I also do know that Lester will make some big plays and Tulane will record the highest point total scored on LSU this season. As long as Tulane can go three and out when they have to and they can score points without eating up too much clock, the OVER is very reachable and has always been in this series.
The LSU Tigers are coming off a war with Auburn and like I mentioned in my previous paragraph, it was a defensive war and the LSU defense is going to struggle to recover in time for what looks to be a somewhat prolific or hard working bunch from Tulane. In-State rivalries are always dangerous and they always tend to be high scoring. As I was saying, several players on both teams played against each other in high school and both teams are going to want to make a statement. LSU is coming off that Auburn loss where they scored only 3 points after combining for 90 points in their first two games against Arizona and Louisiana Lafayetter. Well the Tulane Green Wave defense is pretty much like those two teams which would mean that LSU will bounce back from one of their lowest point output in a while and kick the living crap out of Tulane. I also have to mention that this is Homecoming week for LSU and the players are taking part in tons of activities and rallies with fans so they should come out firing in this game. Their last 11 homecoming games have seen an average of 50 points per game and this should be no different this time around. The LSU Tigers are averaging 31 points per game and their reponse to that poor performance last week should be huge. The Tigers are averaging a whopping 413.7 total yards per game this season on 6.9 yards per play. The Tulane defense is allowing 37 points per game this season on an insane 493.5 total yards allowed per game on 6.8 yards per play. On the ground, RB Alley Broussard should have his breakout game of the season as the Green Wave allow 173.0 rushing yards per game on 5.2 yards per carry. LSU is averaging 147.7 rushing yards per game but on 4.6 yards per carry. Things should get very interesting once QB Jamarcus Russell decides it's time to drop bombs on Tulane. Russell has passed for 718 yards this season and completed 63.9% of his passes while doing so. LSU as a team is passing for a whopping 9.6 yards per pass attempt while the Tulane Green Wave team are allowing 320.5 passing yards per game this season for 8.1 yards per pass attempt. Russell should be able to throw for 350+ yards in this game, hitting his all-star lineup of WR's who are each going to get a touchdown in this game and who are going to be about 20 times to quick for all Tulane defenders which should make this game a lot of fun to watch. Blowout time in Baton Rouge for this one as two old rivals collide and give us a nice little shootout again. LSU have all the tools in the world to cover this number themselves but I don't see it happening as Tulane are going to score a few times to ensure that this game is sent OVER the total.
Trend of the Game: The OVER is 7-0 in LSU's last seven non-conference games.
LSU 44, Tulane 13
RECAP:
Virginia +17
Northwestern-Nevada 'Over' 48.5
Wisconsin +14
Kansas State +14
Florida International +18.5
Florida Atlantic-South Carolina 'Over' 41
Tulane-LSU 'Over' 48
Good Luck to all this week!
:cheers:
