MistaFlava
Cheerleader
2006 CFB Bowl Record: 15-16 (+$650)
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 15-15 (+$1750)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-1 (-$11.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
8-3 ATS the last eleven BOWL GAMES
Congrats to all who had a winning season. I am already looking forward to sharing information and discussing games with you guys next year. It's been a really fun year and Im glad I got to meet most of you guys, even some of the basher.
---------------------------------
2006 CFB Bowl ATS Record: 15-15 (+$1750)
2006 CFB Bowl O/U Record: 0-1 (-$11.00)
2006 CFB Season Record: 76-59-3 (-$4700)
8-3 ATS the last eleven BOWL GAMES
Congrats to all who had a winning season. I am already looking forward to sharing information and discussing games with you guys next year. It's been a really fun year and Im glad I got to meet most of you guys, even some of the basher.
---------------------------------
Ohio State Buckeyes -7 (100 Units)
Why I am betting on this game: I am a sucker for placing very large wager in very large games. Sure it may not be smart but I like to make big deposits on big game days and I love partying most of the day with some buddies, getting drunk and then either watching my money grow on trees or watch my money go down in fire. That's the way betting works and that's the way I work. Sure it's not smart to have so much money riding on a big game like this one of the Super Bowl but I love the thrill of it and I love taking risks. I am not forcing anyone to do the same, just telling you why I am betting on this game. I have a love for the game of football and I get a huge adrenaline rush when I have a lot of money on a game. Also, this is one of the 2-3 games I said I would pound when the Bowl Season started. I like USC over Michigan as my only other 100 unit play and it hit with flying colors. So when the lines came out, I told myself I would be pounding a) USC and then b) Ohio State.
Why Ohio State -7 is different than USC -7 in 2005: Jim Tressel and Pete Caroll are quite possibly the two best coaches in college football right now when it comes to game preparations, in-game coaching, recruiting and just about everything else you need to do right to win football games. Everyone underestimated Pete Caroll in this year's Rose Bowl game and although he did not have the best team to work with this year, he made the best of it and quite easily beat Lloyd Carr who had his best team in years to work with. The mistake I made by going with USC -7 in last year's Rose Bowl Game for the National Title was that I bet against a) Vince Young, b) Mack Brown and c) the 2nd best team in the Country at the time. Florida is not the 2nd best team in the Country right now. The only reason USC, Texas or LSU (the only teams who would have a shot at beating Ohio State) are not in this game is because they all had 2+ losses but those losses came under bad circumstance and nonetheless, I feel that all three teams would be a much better match for the Buckeyes. I'll be up front and honest guys, Florida were very lucky to win some games this year and swing 2-3 points the other way in Tennessee, Vanderbilt, South Carolina and Florida State games and we aren't even talking about Florida in the TOP 10. What Ohio State game did they almost lose anyways? None. Ohio State won 12 games this season and won those games by 25.9 points per game. Florida won 12 games this season and they won those games by 17.5 points per game. Sounds close but Florida had UCF and some I-AA school on their schedule to boost numbers. All I am saying here is that Ohio State doesn't just win games, they win them convincingly (I still feel the Michigan win was a cover but oh well).
What do Auburn, South Carolina and Tennnessee have in common?: Well for starters, they are the only three teams who either beat or came within one or two points of beating the Gators. I am sure Jim Tressell and his coaching staff looked at the tapes for all three games trying to see how they can get an edge over the Gators coming into this game. For starters, Auburn was the only team that forced Florida into 3 turnovers (2 fumbles and 1 interception). I would consider that good news here since Ohio State is ranked #9 in the Country when it comes to turnover margin. Also, all three of these teams held Florida to a 3rd down conversion percentage of a combined 38% which is probably the key to winning big games. Any team that starts allowing 3rd down conversions on more than one drive is not going to win football games. Well Ohio State held their opponents to a 30.2% conversion rate on 3rd downs which is probably one of the main reasons they had so much success this year. The Gators will go for some big yardage plays in this game but they won't have as much success as one might think and their 3rd downs are going to be crucial.
What about Michigan almost beating Ohio State?: That never really happened because even though Ohio State went down early, Jim Tressell told his guys not to sweat things out for one minute and he told his guys that they were still in full control of this game. Consider this guys, had Michigan not scored that very late touchdown (we all know it wasn't pass interference) to make it a three point game, Ohio State would have won every single game this year by at least seven points. Not by two or three point but by seven points. That's really not an easy thing to do and I say that because when you are the #1 team in the Country, every single team is going to take their best shot at you and the Buckeyes didn't flinch once against any of their opponents this year. You can't ask for better than a 9-3 ATS record...you just can't. We all saw how garbage Michigan really is in their Rose Bowl game against USC but once again, I still consider Michigan a much better team than Florida and I don't have any doubts that the Wolverines could have beat Florida had they faced each other in an other Bowl Game. Michigan-Ohio State was also a big time conference rivalry (probably the biggest in the Country) while Florida-Ohio State is not a rivalry at all.
Won't Florida destroy OSU's secondary?: Maybe. However, you have to consider that as well as Chris Leak has played this year for the Gators, Leak has thrown 13 interceptions and it could be that one or two mistakes that cost him this game and this cover. James Laurinaitis and Malcolm Jenkins are going to be in no mood to hear about this kind of stuff seeing that they combined for 9 interceptions between the two and led a secondary that had 22 interceptions on the year. Can you find me another team in the Nation that had 12 different players with an interception in one season? Chad Henne had thrown only 7 interceptions coming into the Ohio State game and the only reason the Wolverines kept things close is because Henne did not make a single mistake. However, Leak has a bad habit of forcing some thrown and with 12 guys capable of making interceptions. As much success as Florida has had passing the ball this year, they only had 5 reliable receiving bodies while Michigan used 6 all season. After Dallas Baker, Andre Caldwell, Jemalle Cornelius, Percy Harvin and Cornelius Ingram...there are no other reliable options. Will those guys be enough to get it done? I don't think so. Ohio State are bigger playmakers on defense and that will be the difference in this game.
Why I really like Ohio State -7: The Florida Gators come into this game averaging 28.8 points per game this season and they have done that on 398.1 total yards per game and 6.5 yards per play. That is the work of an offensive genius in Urban Meyer but Jim Tressel is the best coach Meyer has seen all year and maybe ever as a head coach. The Buckeyes are allowing only 10.4 points per game this season and allowing only 273.0 total yards per game and 4.6 yards per play. On the ground, Florida is averaging 160.3 rushing yards per game on 4.8 yards per carry this season. Ohio State's defense is allowing only 93.5 rushing yards per game on 3.3 yards per carry. In the air, QB Chris Leak is completing 62.9% of his passes for 8.3 yards per pass attempt, 22 touchdowns but 13 interceptions. I just can't get over those interceptions because he is prone to mistakes and mistakes kill in games like this. Ohio State also has one of the best LB corps in the Country and that is the leftovers from the AJ Hawk and Bobby Carpenter years. The Buckeyes have 37 sacks on the year and pressuring Leak is the key to this game because once again, he makes mistakes. If the Gators want to use Tim 'Superstar' Tebow they can, but it won't make a big difference and the Buckeyes will be ready.
Ohio State comes into this game averaging a whopping 36.3 points per game this season on 409.8 total yards per game and 6.3 yards per play. Jim Tressel has his best team ever with the Buckeyes, even better than the 2001-2002 National Championship team he had. Not only is his offense better this year than 2002 but his defense is also better and their playmaking ability will be the difference in this game. The Buckeyes average 180.1 rushing yards per game on 4.7 yards per carry and they have the ability to move things on the ground to the point where the passing attack becomes lethal. Sure Florida is allowing only 74.5 rushing yards per game on 2.8 yards per carry but Antonio Pittman Chris Wells are licking their chops at a shot for glory. In the air, QB and Heisman Trophy winner Troy Smith is completing 67.0% of his passes this season for 8.4 yards per pass attempt, 30 touchdowns and 5 interceptions. He has been sacked only 13 times all season which is very important to mention because both teams are going to come after the opposing QB and wichever team has the most success getting through the line, will win and cover this game. What I find hilarious is the people who say that Florida's offensive line is just as good as Ohio State's. Are you kiddding me? Ohio State has a TOP 5 caliber offensive line while I don't even rank those Florida guys in the TOP 30 offensive lines in the Country. The Buckeyes should have a lot of success getting to Leak in this game while the Gators will try to get to Smith but won't have any success and that is when he will find Teddy Ginn Jr. or Anthony Gonzalez on the deep pass.
Florida's secondary is actually better than Ohio State but they don't have as many interceptions and neither team has a TOP 10 secondary. That means that whichever team can put the most pressure on the opposing QB and relieve pressure on their secondary, will have no problems winning this game. Seeing that Vernon Gholston, Quinn Pitcock and Jay Richardson are all monsters off the line, I think Chris Leak can be harrassed enough times in this game that he we see him thrown that crucial interception late in the game that seals the deal for the Buckeyes.
Flava you're an idiot, Florida covers easy: Okay fine. You have your opinion, and I have mine. I was on USC last year while some of you were on Texas. However, I don't know how many times I have to say this. USC and Texas were the two best teams in the Country last year hands down. Although Ohio State and Florida are both ranked #1 and #2 in the Country right now, the Gators are not the second best team in the Country, nor are they the third best team nor are they the fourth best team in the Country. I know this is going to piss some of you Florida guys off but the Gators relied too heavily on luck this year to win games and although luck could be a factor in this game, Ohio State is just too much of a force winning their games by 24+ points. That's as incredible as it gets to not have one team come within a touchdown of beating you until Michigan did it in the last game of the year. What side of this would you rather be on anyways? Would you rather be on the Ohio State 9-3 ATS side or would you rather take the overrated Gators with their 4-8 ATS record? It's not a tough decision. Would you rather take Jim Tressel who has won a National Title before or would you rather take Urban Meyer who's biggest win as a head coach was against Houston Nutt and the Arkansas Razorbacks in the SEC Title Game? This isn't even close.
Final thoughts, you're either with me or you're not: Florida did everything right this year. However, if you look at the 6 games they played outside of Gainesville this year, their total margin of victory in those games was 3.5 points per game as they went 5-1 in those games. Ohio State played outside of Columbus 5 times going 5-0 in those games and winning those games by a 24 point margin. So you people who are taking Florida to win and/or cover this game are going to trust a team that could not pull away in big road games this season over a team that beat Texas by 17 points in only their first road game of the year and that followed that up by beating the living shit out of their other road opponents. That alone goes to show how well coached Ohio State is this season and how Jim Tressel has his players ready to play and ready to rumble in just about any part of the Country. We are in Arizona for this game and although there is a ton of hype around this game, I still feel that Ohio State should have been a 10 point favorite but the books didn't dare come out with a line like this. This game won't even be close and I just don't understand what Florida Gators fans and backers see in this team. You're either with me or against me in this one. Jim Tressel is a coach you can't count on when you need those extra few touchdowns to pull away at the end of a game. Troy Smith and Ted Ginn Jr. are two of the most exciting players in all of college football and both players are probably looking to finish their Ohio State careers with an impressive performance to up their NFL Draft stock. I'm sorry to all Florida backers who thought their team had a chance in this game. When was the last time a Florida team led by Chris Leak had so much hype around one game? They are not used to it while Troy Smith is used to all the hype you can get having been in games against Texas and Michigan this year. The Buckeyes are the class of the Nation and they'll win this game by 14+ points.
Trend of the Game: Ohio State is 10-2 ATS in their last 12 games versus a team with a winning record.
Ohio State 34, Florida 14
:cheers:
Thanks to all for the fun year, see you in September!
Thanks to all for the fun year, see you in September!
