Hit Russia +25 in women's but wish I trusted myself more passed on the USA UNDER 156 and Aussies -17......
Would agree with those leans - Spain for there talent looks very sloppy to me . Gasol has played awesome but thats really all though Garbosa(to lazy to get the correct spelling) inserted into the starting 5 looked good...there guard play has been a disappointment (as there 3 pt shooting has been)I think at least IMO from the youngster Rubio , to Calderon etc...I mean Crotia was terrible IMO ...I could definetly play on that team and start .....I had Spain got the shit push but not enough of that game was played with Spain leading by 20+ in fact little of it was for as ba as Croatia looked IMO...Lithunia a much better team if Spain duplicates that effort and the one versus USA it could spell trouble but I havnt seen Lithunia play I dont think ....Also Spain didnt impres me vs Greece either who looked terrible as well ..
I like Argentina as well because they have a better core of NBA players then Spain but more importantly those guys play sound defense( The NBAers on Argentina ) ....Which USA has feasted on turnovers for quick scores and recently they have shot real well from beyond 3 but would think they get less open looks here as well..
GL...post later tonight what I decided:cheers:
yep we looked awful that game
we did play very well on the qualifiers tournament in Athens prior to the Games and beat Australia and Russia in style. Our goal was to reach the main tournament, and reaching top 8 was a bonus.
We did not play well v Spain at all, never in the game, but it was a huge mismatch in the paint, we have NO ONE to cope with Gasol and co.
Prkacin is small and stacked, we're missing Kasun (ex Orlando Magic, now Barcelona, has heart problems), Nikola Vujcic (one of the best eurobasket centers in the past 5 years) and of course Giricek (SG) who won't play in the NBA any more, went to Fenerbahce.
We don't have huge talent like in the past when Drazen Petrovic, Toni Kukoc, Dino Radja, Zan Tabak, etc played for us, now our core are young players, somewhat unproven (Ukic, Tomas) trying to break out of their shells which they do occasionally but not consistently, a rather vast generation gap between some of the players...we're well coached but not much to offer sans team defense which collapsed after the Russia game.
I have to be happy about this because our basketball was in shambles for a decade now and this is maybe a shout 'hey, we're still here' and I'll take it.
Solid backbone but nowhere near the top 5 teams (USA, Argentina, Lithuania, Spain, Greece).
I like Lithuania because they will pose a threat to Spain in the exact game elements we couldn't cope at, fastbreak (Spain neutralized our fastbreak and brought us down to classic shotclock 5 on 5 game and KILLED us there, trust me, make that a fast break game and we're not losing that game by more than 5)
Lithuania can play 5 on 5, they have excellent shot creation off the dribble and several guys in the inside who won't give Spain 1 million second chance shots. Much more class in Lithuania than Croatia, plus they have several killer shooters, mainly Kleiza who has been great in clutch situations.
Spain looked sloppy, you had it right the first time you said it. 5.5 a bargain?
I think 3.5 or 4 is the real line here. I'm not saying the bookies got it wrong but as per usual they're trying to bank on Gasol's presence and the image of Spanish basket. They are indeed a very deep and talented team, I just think facing Lithuania is something they will hate.
Give them Argentina and I think they do better, even though Argentina has a lot of talent, Lithuanians are more physical.
Anyways as far as USA is concerned, you cannot fade the Redeem team. At least I can't. These guys will want to make a statement here and 19 may seem like cotton candy, as weird as it seems.
It's all about their motivation. They are fired up 100%, this is not some sloppy effort from 4 years back, they are holding their foot on the gas pedal until the last minute.
Manu said it himself, they have 5% to win that game. I actually think USA wins from 20 to 30, not more and probably not less. But can't play either side since the cover could come down to the last couple of minutes, as Spain v Croatia came down to.
I had no bets in that game but Spain backers were fucked, Croatia suddenly started pouring treys, making steals, knocking down downtown shots...
and covered. So it's a huge moose I think.
Anyways have to go with my analysis so far which says Lithuania has a chance to win this. May or may not but will have a chance to. In order to lay 6 with Spain I have to think they win this by 10 or more and I don't. They may win it by 20 but I think there's a higher chance it goes down the wire.
Actually if you ask me how the game will go I think Spain goes up early by 10 and Lithuania climbs back up to take the lead in the 3rd Q.
What happens from that point on I'm not sure, but this is how I see it. :cheers: