May Bases

mrpickem

mrpickem

SDQL Badass Stat Boss
[152-141 -0.11u]
3-7-1 Yesterday
  • 901 St. Louis Cardinals +138
  • 910 San Francisco Giants +129
  • 911 Oakland Athletics +130
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds/New York Mets Over 6½ -115
  • 928 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +100
Rough outing yesterday, but that will happen when playing dogs. That's part of the game and just hope to bounce back stronger.



 
Model plays...
  • 901 St. Louis Cardinals +145
  • 903 Cincinnati Reds +170
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -139
  • 911 Oakland Athletics +133
  • 922 Texas Rangers +127
  • 926 Seattle Mariners +102
  • 929 Cleveland Indians -127
A couple are duplicates of my regular plays and I only added as a small token placeholder..still all games are only 1u
The model definitely overvalue teams that have done well this season like Texas. It undervalues slumping teams as well like BOS and PIT. This is a flaw I don't know any way around since 80% of valuation is based on current season performance. As the season goes along the theory is it will become more accurate. "fingers crossed"
Once again I got a negative value fade play with the Reds.

View attachment 39259
 
[155-146 -1.01u]
3-5 Yesterday
  • 952 New York Mets -1½ +115
  • 951 Cincinnati Reds/New York Mets Under 7½ -105
  • 955 Colorado Rockies +111
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals/Washington Nationals Under 9 -115
  • 961 Tampa Bay Rays* -1½ +100
  • 961 Tampa Bay Rays/Kansas City Royals Under 8 -105
  • 965 Toronto Blue Jays +142
  • 965 Toronto Blue Jays +1½ -150


View attachment 39267
Capture.png


Rox 54-43 as road dog after a win over last 3+ years
d0954d82-e7c2-46c7-a8ca-6af8011961f7.png



 
Model has shat the bed last couple days so I'm gonna rest it, I will still post it here...just not playing it on it's own

View attachment 39269

Today's plays would be CIN, SL, TOR & CHW (all dogs)

I only played TOR, but I was looking hard at SL
 
[160-150 +0.87u]
5-3 Yesterday
  • 901 St. Louis Cardinals -109
  • 903 Washington Nationals +157
  • 903 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 +100
  • 911 Arizona Diamondbacks -108
  • 913 Los Angeles Dodgers -154
  • 927 Oakland Athletics +112
  • 925 Boston Red Sox -1½ -110
randoms

View attachment 39298
 
[165-152 +3.48u]
5-2 Yesterday
  • 951 St. Louis Cardinals +117
  • 957 New York Mets +101
  • 961 Arizona Diamondbacks +122
  • 968 Cleveland Indians -1½ +110
  • 974 Los Angeles Angels +115
  • 975 Boston Red Sox -169
  • 975 Boston Red Sox/Chicago White Sox Under 9 -110
  • 978 Texas Rangers -125
View attachment 39313
View attachment 39314

 
[168-157 +1.09u]
3-5 Yesterday
  • 903 Washington Nationals/Philadelphia Phillies Under 8½ -108
  • 904 Philadelphia Phillies -157
  • 905 New York Mets/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9½ +105
  • 908 Colorado Rockies -138
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -135
  • 912 Cincinnati Reds -1½ +120
  • 911 San Francisco Giants/Cincinnati Reds Under 8½ -115
  • 915 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ -110
  • 922 Detroit Tigers -128
  • 923 Boston Red Sox -170
  • 927 Houston Astros -1½ -150
todays starters record over aprox last half season...since 8/1/18
Capture.png

Capture1.png



https://giant.gfycat.com/SnoopyDentalItaliangreyhound.webm
 
Last edited:
My model 20-9 overall last 2 days, but 0-3 for value plays. wtf? It's just something I do for fun and I don't play the games.

Today only 2 value plays CHW and LAA

This is only the record for May

View attachment 39335
 
[174-162 +0.42u]
6-5-2 Yesterday

Slight winning record Sunday but lost $$, the price of playing favs
  • 955 Philadelphia Phillies/St. Louis Cardinals Over 9 +105
  • 956 St. Louis Cardinals -128
  • 958 Chicago Cubs -1½ -120
  • 959 Atlanta Braves +148
  • 961 New York Mets -114
  • 963 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians Over 9 +100
  • 964 Cleveland Indians -1½ -120
  • 966 New York Yankees -142
  • 969 Minnesota Twins -105
  • 971 Kansas City Royals +250
View attachment 39350
View attachment 39349


View attachment 39348

:cheers3:
 
adding
  • 952 Cincinnati Reds -148
  • 951 San Francisco Giants/Cincinnati Reds Under 8 +100
Not as strong on these but some afternoon action will be good
 
model plays 10-4-1 yesterday(30-13-1 last 3 days)
value plays 0-2 and have missed 9 straight...lol
problem is bos, hos, and cle have started slowly and they are still laying big chalk so it give reverse value
once again the value plays are kc, chw and zona
I actually do see value with KC and AZ and have already played royos

View attachment 39362
 
[179-169 -2.47u]
5-7 Yesterday
  • 901 Washington Nationals -108
  • 917 Boston Red Sox -190
  • 919 Minnesota Twins -130
  • 926 Pittsburgh Pirates -137
  • 911 New York Mets -1½ +130
  • 914 Cleveland Indians -1½ +135
  • 921 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +120
  • 921 Los Angeles Angels/Detroit Tigers Over 9 +105
  • 924 Houston Astros -1½ +105
View attachment 39375

 
Colorado is likely. Bumgarner is on worst rest and has an ERA at Colorado of 6.55 based on 11 innings
 
What I said was true but the play is weak looking at Days of week and Colorado is also weak in night games. I intend to wait on ump
 
[183-174 -4.24u]
4-5 Yesterday
  • 951 Washington Nationals +183
  • 954 St. Louis Cardinals -152
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -200
  • 964 Cleveland Indians -184
  • 967 Boston Red Sox -1 -241
  • 978 Tampa Bay Rays -152
  • 980 Oakland Athletics -105
  • 959 San Francisco Giants/Colorado Rockies Over 9½ -102
  • 960 Colorado Rockies -1½ +140
  • 964 Cleveland Indians -1½ +115
  • 980 Oakland Athletics -1½ +175


View attachment 39388

randoms..

View attachment 39392

TB 40-23 SU in day games since last year (+24% ROI) .. 19-7 @home
SEA 27-9-2 over the total this year (+42% ROI)
SL 14-3 on RL this year in day games (+59% ROI)
SD 25-50 SU in home night games since last year (fade for +24% ROI) (3-11 this year)
ATL 25-20 SU on road vs teams with winning record since last year +38.2% ROI)
Home fav >= 150 (CLE)after scoring <=1 and good D (<= .5 err per game) 102-30 +20% ROI last 5+ years
CLE 4-14 after being shutout last 3+ years

 
Best of luck, but I don't think they'll be playing at Coor's Field tonight. Snow and freezing rain moving in...
 
[187-178 -5.09u]
4-4-3 Yesterday
  • 907 Atlanta Braves -106
  • 915 Seattle Mariners +145
  • 920 Oakland Athletics -142
  • 911 Chicago White Sox/Cleveland Indians Over 9 -105
  • 912 Cleveland Indians -1½ +100
  • 918 Houston Astros -1½ +135
Today's starters since AUG 1..roughly .5 season
View attachment 39401

Capture1.png





 
adding a couple more

  • 904 Colorado Rockies -146
  • 914 Detroit Tigers +140
  • 913 Los Angeles Angels/Detroit Tigers Over 9½ +100
​
 
[190-182 -6.05u]
3-4-2 Yesterday
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -125
  • 954 New York Mets -171
  • 956 St. Louis Cardinals -137
  • 958 Colorado Rockies -177
  • 963 Cincinnati Reds/San Francisco Giants Under 7½ -115
  • 964 San Francisco Giants +135
  • 965 Los Angeles Angels -170
  • 967 Chicago White Sox +118
  • 970 Boston Red Sox -180
  • 970 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
  • 972 Tampa Bay Rays -145
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -110
  • 976 Houston Astros -1½ -115
PHI 15-28 both SU and RL on the road after a win since last year (+22.5% / 37.5% ROI for fade)
SEA 28-10-2 over the total this year (+39.4% ROI) (16-5-1 over on road)
TB 45-25 both SU and RL at home vs righties since last year (+19.3% / +31.9% ROI) (9-5 this year)
WAS 9-18 both SU and RL on Fridays since last year (fade for +45% / 26.7% ROI) (0-4 this year)
LAA 23-17 both SU & RL as a road favorite since last year (+13.6% / +19.5% ROI)
MIL 26-10 on Fridays since last year (+40.5% ROI)…also 23-12 over in same situation (+26% ROI)

View attachment 39411
View attachment 39412


 
[198-186 -4.11u]
8-4-1 Yesterday
  • 902 St. Louis Cardinals -175
  • 903 Milwaukee Brewers +128
  • 903 Milwaukee Brewers/Chicago Cubs Over 7½ +110
  • 908 Arizona Diamondbacks +101
  • 909 San Diego Padres +117
  • 909 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Under 10 -105
  • 916 Boston Red Sox -1½ -101
  • 917 Detroit Tigers +145
  • 917 Detroit Tigers/Minnesota Twins Under 8½ -105
  • 919 Chicago White Sox/Toronto Blue Jays Under 8½ +100
  • 931 Detroit Tigers/Minnesota Twins Under 9½ -105
randoms...
PIT a rediculous 22-3-2 over the total on Saturday last 3+ years (+64.1% ROI)
HOU 15-19 SU vs lefties at home since last year (+63.8% ROI for fade) (12-22 RL)
WAS 9-18 SU after an off day since last year (fade for +46.97% ROI) (0-6 this year)
SEA 29-10-2 over the total this year (+40.7% ROI) (17-5-1 over on road)
MIL 26-10 on Fridays since last year (+40.5% ROI)…also 23-12 over in same situation (+26% ROI)
LAA 20-5 SU as a road favorite of 125 or more since last year (+30.7% ROI)(17-8-1 RL)
AZ 25-17 on RL at home vs teams with losing record since last year (30.7% ROI)
TB 62-39 both SU and RL at home since last year (+14.6% / +26.7% ROI)
SD 30-49 on RL vs teams with losing record since last year (fade for +21.8% ROI)

View attachment 39436

View attachment 39435

Joc flips off Dozier(click pic)



 
Porcello over 8 day ERA. Its a little crazy but Felix monster ERA with ump like 1 over big sample
 
well fuck, I know I could have got this at 10 earlier, but wtf...Ima join the bandwagon

  • 915 Seattle Mariners/Boston Red Sox Over 11½ +105
 
[204-192 -3.54u]
6-6 Yesterday but turned a small profit thx to pups
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates +1½ -135
  • 953 Pittsburgh Pirates/St. Louis Cardinals Over 8½ -115
  • 956 Colorado Rockies -118
  • 957 Cincinnati Reds -105
  • 963 Milwaukee Brewers +128
  • 965 Los Angeles Angels -165
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ +105
May have moar later...

View attachment 39447
View attachment 39448
MIA 4-16 both SU and RL vs NL teams allowing 4.5 rpg or more this year (fade for +27.4% / +65.9%)

SEA 30-10-2 over the total this year (+41.9% ROI) (18-5-1 over on road)

CLE 33-37 SU in all games with total of 9 or more since last year (fade for +25%)

MIL 88-47 SU in night games since last year (+24.7% ROI)

LAA 21-5 SU as a road favorite of 125 or more since last year (+32.2% ROI)(18-8 RL +41.3%)

AZ 25-17 on RL at home vs teams with losing record since last year (30.7% ROI)

TB 63-39 both SU and RL at home since last year (+15.1% / +27.7% ROI)

TB 22-10 on RL in Sunday games since last year (+37.9% ROI)

SD 31-49 on RL vs teams with losing record since last year (fade for +20.6% ROI)

BAL 1-16 SU last 17 weekend(FRI-SUN) games

Jays at home after losing at 6/7 of last 8 over 2+ years
View attachment 39449

 
 
considering 2 first five plays...

CLE -0.5 -115 - Bieber is a very good road starter, maybe the best active numbers (9-0 in his career). He has 6 quality starts this year, but no W's in L4. The tribe's been struggling something fierce, but I think they will break out in a big way tonight vs Lopez, a pitcher they just saw last week that has given up 9 earned runs in his last 11 innings.

BAL/NYY Over 4.5 -120 - Easy pickin's here as the game's over/under opened correctly around 9.5 runs and has been beaten down to 8.5, and getting a win at 5 runs instead of a push for the 1st 5. Yankees have proven they are a force even with injuries, and Hess gives up 1.2 home runs every time through the lineup when facing NY probables.
 
adding
  • 905 Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees 1st 5 Innings Over 5 -105
  • 911 Cleveland Indians 1st 5 Innings -½ -120
 
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