May Bases

model 6-8 overall...only 2nd losing day in last 10. Value plays 2-0
CHW only value play today Scratch that, I forgot to update the stats.lol, no value play today

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[209-199 -6.17u]
1-3-3 Yesterday
  • 951 Chicago Cubs -113
  • 951 Chicago Cubs -1½ +135
  • 955 New York Mets/Washington Nationals Under 8½ -114
  • 955 New York Mets -139
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals -125
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -147
  • 963 Cleveland Indians -195
  • 965 Baltimore Orioles/New York Yankees Over 8½ -115
  • 967 Houston Astros -200
  • 969 Los Angeles Angels +116
  • 971 Texas Rangers/Kansas City Royals Over 9½ -110
  • 974 Seattle Mariners +105
  • 975 Tampa Bay Rays -126
  • 977 Colorado Rockies +210
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SD 31-22 SU on the road following a loss since last year (+39.7% ROI)
AZ 40-16 SU on Tuesday since 2017 (+36.1%)
SEA 32-10-2 over the total this year (+44.1% ROI)
OAK 2-13 SU on road vs teams with losing record this year (fade for +61.6%)
BOS 37-11 SU in interleague games since 2017 (+32.2%)
TOR 11-28 SU and 13-26 RL in May games since last year (fade for +30.6% / +36.7%)
 
[221-200 +3.99u]
12-1-1 Yesterday
:party:
  • 907 New York Mets +144
  • 910 Atlanta Braves -132
  • 926 Boston Red Sox -144
  • 902 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +135
  • 906 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +185

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Any team is 53-14 SU at home vs BAL since last year(22% ROI) (41-26 RL for 23%)
SD 31-23 SU on the road following a loss since last year (+37.1% ROI)
SEA 32-11-2 over the total this year (+41% ROI)
BOS 37-12 SU in interleague games since 2017 (+28.4%)
TOR 12-28 SU and 14-26 RL in May games since last year (fade for +28% / +34%)
MIL 89-49 SU in night games since last year (+23.6% ROI)
WAS 47-52 SU at home since last year (fade for 22.8%)

https://www.reddit.com/r/kateupton/comments/bowgpa
 
[224-202 +4.79u]
3-2 Yesterday
  • 951 New York Mets -135
  • 953 Milwaukee Brewers -103
  • 953 Milwaukee Brewers/Philadelphia Phillies Under 9 -105
  • 955 Chicago Cubs +115
  • 957 St. Louis Cardinals -103
  • 965 Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Indians Over 9 +107
  • 966 Cleveland Indians -1½ -140
randoms..
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CLE 31-5-1 over total at home in APR/MAY when temp over 70 degrees last 5+ years (62.2% ROI)
WAS 35-42 SU at home in day games last 2+ years (fade for 30.6%)
BAL 14-54 SU away vs righties since last year(fade for 22.2% ROI) (26-42 RL for 23.9% fade)

f0a92a46-29ab-4207-9cf3-9a5d20b578ea.png

https://www.reddit.com/r/Celebs/comments/bp6ij3
 
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[227-206 +2.75u]
3-4 Yesterday
  • 901 Chicago Cubs +130
  • 903 Colorado Rockies +107
  • 907 New York Mets -190
  • 909 Milwaukee Brewers +123
  • 921 Houston Astros -132
  • 925 Kansas City Royals +148
  • 901 Chicago Cubs/Washington Nationals Over 8 +100
  • 907 New York Mets -1½ -105
Still looking at several others including TB and SL

View attachment 39549
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BAL 14-55 SU away vs righties since last year(fade for 22.4% ROI) (26-43 RL for 24.6% fade)
MIL 27-10 SU in Friday games since last year (42.1%)
WAS 9-19 SU in Friday games since last year (fade for 45%)
SD 26-50 SU at home in night games since last year (fade for +22.8%)
COL on 11-1 over run this month
OAK 3-14 SU on road vs teams with winning record this year (fade for 55.6%)
SEA 33-11-2 over the total this year (+42.2% ROI)
TOR 12-30 SU and 15-27 RL in May games since last year (fade for +30.6% / +32.2%)
MIL 90-49 SU in night games since last year (+24.1% ROI)



 
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I like the over in the Reds, but I'm gonna wait and hope for a scoreless 1st inning, and live bet...
 
wtf, I'm onboard View attachment 39560

  • 903 Colorado Rockies +107
  • 903 Colorado Rockies/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ +100
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers/Cincinnati Reds Over 10½ +103
Embedded media from this media site is no longer available
 
[230-215 -3.2u]
3-9 Yesterday
:beat:
  • 951 Colorado Rockies +157
  • 953 Los Angeles Dodgers -135
  • 957 Chicago Cubs/Washington Nationals Over 8½ +100
  • 958 Washington Nationals -131
  • 971 Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Indians Over 9½ -110
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -140
  • 972 Cleveland Indians -1½ +130
  • 973 Houston Astros -109
  • 975 Kansas City Royals +162
  • 977 Minnesota Twins -122
randoms..
View attachment 39567
View attachment 39566

PIT a ridiculous 23-3-2 over the total on Saturday last 3+ years (+72.1% ROI)

BAL 15-55 SU away vs righties since last year(fade for 20.8% ROI) (27-43 RL for 23.1% fade)

MIL 90-50 SU in night games since last year (+23.4% ROI)

SD 26-51 SU at home in night games since last year (fade for +23.9%)

LAA 3-14 SU at home on Saturday since last year (fade for 66%) (2-15 RL fade for 48.1%)

Nats 21-35 vs left handed starters since last year (fade for 35.6%)

OAK 10-20 SU on vs teams with winning record this year (fade for 30.3%)

SEA 33-11-2 over the total this year (+42.2% ROI)

TOR 13-30 SU in May games since last year (fade for +28%) (4-14 this year)

https://www.reddit.com/r/baseball/comments/bpzhcu

44 YO Kate bests most

​
 
Good luck Mr. P.

Fwiw, Oakland has beaten Detroit 14 in a row, including 9 in a row at Detroit.

But since I brought it up, today's probably the day they lose. That's the way my luck rolls when I post info in here...
 
adds
  • 965 Tampa Bay Rays/New York Yankees Under 8½ -105
  • 966 New York Yankees -102
  • 2966 TAM/NYY no score 1st inn -160
 
wth, stung last night with these overs...but going back to the well

  • 953 Los Angeles Dodgers/Cincinnati Reds Over 10 -105
  • 969 Oakland Athletics/Detroit Tigers Over 9 -110
 
[237-223 -5.11u]
7-8 Yesterday
  • 901 Colorado Rockies +117
  • 910 Arizona Diamondbacks -162
  • 911 Pittsburgh Pirates -102
  • 913 Chicago Cubs -136
  • 921 Oakland Athletics -190
  • 924 Chicago White Sox -116
  • 927 Minnesota Twins -108
  • 903 New York Mets -1½ -107
  • 906 Cincinnati Reds +1½ +100
  • 919 Baltimore Orioles/Cleveland Indians Over 10 +100
  • 920 Cleveland Indians -1½ -120


View attachment 39578

SEA 3-20 SU vs teams with winning record this year (+70.8% ROI)

BAL 15-56 SU away vs righties since last year(fade for 21.3% ROI) (27-44 RL for 24.3% fade)

LAA 3-14 SU at home on Saturday since last year (fade for 66%) (2-15 RL fade for 48.1%)

OAK 11-20 SU on vs teams with winning record this year (fade for 28.4%)

SEA 34-12-2 over the total this year (+40.6% ROI)

TOR 13-31 SU in May games since last year (fade for +29%) (4-15 this year)

ROX on a 16-4 over run

ATL 24-8 on Sunday since last year (+45%)

 
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adds
  • 915 Houston Astros +180
  • 917 Tampa Bay Rays +102
  • 901 Colorado Rockies/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 -115
 
model 6-8-1 Sunday and 0-1 on value play

Twins only value today (I will likely add this play myself)

Note: Model is just and experiment and I'm not wagering on it although I do look at results. Always trying to tweak it as well.

View attachment 39600
 
You were unlucky in the Houston game. They deliberately lost the game. Hard to believe but clearly true
 
adds
  • 961 Oakland Athletics +170
  • 966 Texas Rangers -137
  • 969 Minnesota Twins +116
Three games today offer a definite discrepancy in the starters..ie one under NPERA AVG by at least 1 and one >=1 over
corbin>font just cant lay that much with nats on the road
price>jackson(may be worse active starter)
minor>leake .. yes minor is having a great year

Minor has been lights out this year and his best start of the year came against Seattle. Leake got slammed by the TEX at home and now he’s gotta face em on the road. Rangers are starting to turn it on a bit taking 2/3 from the cardinals while the mariners continue to regress. M's started season 13-2 and are now in last place. :shocked:
 
[248-232 -4.21u]
7-1 Yesterday
  • 903 Colorado Rockies -123
  • 907 Cincinnati Reds +123
  • 909 Atlanta Braves/San Francisco Giants Under 8 -110
  • 911 Arizona Diamondbacks -101
  • 913 Oakland Athletics +118
  • 915 New York Yankees -240
  • 915 New York Yankees -1½ -140
  • 921 Chicago White Sox +310
  • 923 Minnesota Twins +108
  • 925 Miami Marlins +103
  • 929 Kansas City Royals +155
Capture1.png

View attachment 39606

 
[257-234 +2.17u]
9-2-1 Yesterday
  • 956 Pittsburgh Pirates +110
  • 957 Washington Nationals +103
  • 957 Washington Nationals/New York Mets Under 6 +105
  • 960 Chicago Cubs -1½ +125
  • 963 Oakland Athletics/Cleveland Indians Over 9½ +105
  • 964 Cleveland Indians +113
  • 967 New York Yankees -240
  • 967 New York Yankees -1½ -155
  • 973 Minnesota Twins -105
  • 980 Tampa Bay Rays +128
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Model has been doing better lately going 9-5-1 yesterday. Value plays were 2-0 yesterday and have came back to basically even for the month after a dreadfull start to the month. I have made at least 2 revisions to the model this month so it's no really the same as it was.

Today's value plays: PIT, HOU, NYY, TB __Crazy how it actually identifies value at -320 :shocked:

View attachment 39623
 
[261-241 -1.24u]
4-7-1 Yesterday
  • 901 Washington Nationals -144
  • 904 Pittsburgh Pirates -131
  • 904 Pittsburgh Pirates -1½ +160
  • 909 New York Yankees -1½ -135
  • 916 Houston Astros -1½ +110

-Strasburg seems to be coming back to his norm as he did well against the Dodgers and Cubs recently, while Matz struggled with the Marlins going 3.1 innings. Both teams are fairly low scoring.
-PIT has a much stronger pitcher going today and the offense has had some hot bats, scoring 5 in three of L4
-DET get swept by the Marlins at home? I'm not too sure of that with Boyd on the mound.



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Love all the stats and whomever she is. Christ. Her face alone is sexy AF! Where were we...Oh. Baseball
I agree on the Houston call. I remember when the Yanks would win X5 in a row, then get blown out...
They usually came out pissed the next game
GL with your card mrp!
 
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