Model 8-6-1 yesterday and 5-1 on value plays
I am taking the reverse value(fade) plays out..or at least listing them separate for now..they have not fared well
Value today on NYM, AZ and MIN. No reverse value G2 Yanks has no line so it looks cra
Been on a nice run, going 68-50 +13.71u since May 14th. Even my model has been winning regularly up over 12u for the month. Just hoping to continue the hot streak. When you're winning everything looks so easy, but we know it's not and there will surely be some down times. So I just try to limit plays and not try and grab everything. lol
here's a few more to ponder...
Brewers F5 -140 (This one almost a certainty as already played RL)
Woodruff is 8-2 in the F5
PHI ranks 17th with .736 OPS vs RHP
Twins F5 -0.5
Odorizzi is 7-2-1 in the F5. He has given up 3 runs in his last 30.1 IP
Twins bats still on fire
LAD F5 -160
Archer has given up 3,6,6,3 ER in his last 4 starts.
LA 6th in OPS vs RHP
PIT 21st in OPS vs RHP
Maeda zero runs allowed in his last two starts.
Astros TT over 4'
Rodriguez has given up 11 runs in his last 11 innings.
Pineda is not good and MIL combined OPS against him is .973. Gio goes, and Minnesota has a combined .620 OPS against him. Granted both pitchers have limited sample sizes but Gonzalez has done better against this Minnesota lineup and he is also the better pitcher overall (lower XFIP/NPER). Twins are the best hitting team in MLB but they've also beaten up on some pretty weak teams the past couple of weeks. Bullpens are about a wash (Minnesota's is a little bit better). Gimme the Brewcrew at near pickem price
Dodgers ML -170
Two aces going in DeGrom and Kershaw but I still think this is a cheap price on the Dodgers. Dodgers are 19-6 at home while the Mets are 11-17 away. This is reflected in their runs: Dodgers average 1.5 more runs at home (5.64) versus (4.14) for the Mets on the road. Now both Degrom and Kershaw have shut down each others line-ups so if it comes down to a pitcher's duel, I'm going to trust the better bets at home. Also, Kershaw is 8-0 against the Mets and the Mets are 3-14 in the last 17 meetings w/doyers.
Dodgers F5 -160
DeGrom is 2-6-2 in the F5
Dodgers are 5th in OPS vs RHP
Rays -1.5 +115 (likely add)
Toronto is 28th in OPS vs RHP
TB ranks 7th in OPS vs RHP
Sanchez has a 4.50 ERA on the road
Reds -1.5 -115 (likely add)
Kingham has given up 13 runs in his last 8IP
Castillo has a home ERA of 1.90
Cubs F5 +150 ...not sold but like odds
Cole is 4-6-1 in the F5
Cubs are 4th in OPS vs RHP
Cubs have scored 30 runs in L5, plus injuries have hurt HOU batting lineup
Dbacks F5 +100
Greinke has been pretty solid in his recent starts
Gray has given up at least 3 ER in each of his last 5 starts
Rockies 14-26-8 in the F5
Red Sox TT o5.5 -110
Boston is 10th in OPS vs RHP
Rodriguez has had a tough time his last 2 starts giving up 4 runs in both games.
10.5 is pretty high but I don't trust either one of these pitchers. You have Brault who walks nearly 6 p/9 and has a 5.85 XFIP. How the guy is still starting is beyond me. On the other side you have DeSclafini with a 4.7 XFIP and averages nearly 2.4 HR/9. Last time he faced this PIT lineup, he gave up 6 ER.
CIN bats have come alive in the L6 as they've scored at least 5 runs. They are hitting well and also facing a guy who belongs in the bullpen or most likely in AAA.
PIT hasn't been hitting well, but they did just face a very good LAD pitching staff. Here they are facing a guy who they raked last time out. I think DeSclafini is the perfect foil for these Bucs to smash.
PIT bullpen isn't very good so it's not like if Brault gets lit up there is a great bullpen to come in and bail him out. I think this total cashes easy. If the rain holds off as weather may be an issue.
AZ -115
If Ray didn't walk so many batters, he could be ace material. As it is, he is still a damn good pitcher who doesn't give up many homers (.78 HR/9) and gets lots of K's (11.79K/9). He is facing Jeff Hoffman, who has a 8.10 ERA but that is due for regression as he has a much better XFIP of 4.58. Hoffman is still a rather average pitcher at best.
These teams are nearly identical in OPS and bullpens. AZ is also a good road team at 17-13, while the Rockies are 12-12 at home.
By the numbers, these teams are similar, but I'm really liking the pitchinging match-up and AZ is a good road team. Really like this spot but the line dropping has me scratching my head??
Paddack has been off to a great start, 3.43 SIERA 29% K-rate with 6% BB. His BABIP suggests he's getting a bit lucky (0.198), but his strikeout stuff is the real deal (12% SwSt). Paxton has been hot and cold and will be coming back from knee issues that ruined his last start, but his season numbers are also pretty great: 3.28 SIERA, 34% K-rate and 8% BB to go along with a 0.337 BABIP which is up from his career avg around 0.300. That being said - the Padres have been crushing the ball with a wRC+ of 146 over the last 7, should be a close matchup but I'll take the dog.
LAA ML @ OAK | 3u @ 1.86
Both teams have been hammering the ball over the last 7 days. Oakland with a 140 wRC+ and BAIP of 0.288 and the Angels with a 116 wRC+ and a 0.298 BABIP. The difference here comes on the mound, Canning is rocking a 16.4% SwSt rate in his limited appearances this year, which puts him only behind Snell, Stanek and Gerrit Cole when looking at starters. His SIERA is good at 3.98, and his walk rate is average at 8%. Mengden has not been good, 6.08 SIERA, 6% SwSt and a 15% BB. I think the A's may have the slight advantage at the plate, but the Angels are the better team when looking at everything here.
ARI @ COL ML | 1u @ 2.00
The D-backs obviously have the better pitcher in this matchup, but the Rockies seem to finally have found their bats with a wRC+ of 130 over the last 7 days, and hitting lefties at 1 110 wRC+ over the last month. The Rockies also have pretty good numbers as a team against Robbie Ray. In what should be a high scoring affair I like the Rockies chances of staying in this one.
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