May 18th MLB Discussion
- Thread starter scarf31
- Start date
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Why in the fukk are my cardinals favs tonight??
I've never been one these tin foil hat wearing conspiracy nuts, I have always believed in capping the games, trusting my methods/process, and playing where I see value.
I'm not into attempting to "read" anything into lines or any such thing, I'm not 1 to tell others my way any better than theirs and never will, not the point of this post at all.
That all being said if there was ever a "fishy" line that screamed "trap" (or whatever guys want to call it) this has to be it!! In all seriousness even the juice lovers that have never seen a MLB fav they didn't like are gonna eat this line up!!! typical surface stats/numbers easily point phils. Digging deeper into my process there still little to nothing that says cards should be favs here, I have number damn near completely flipped which typically leads me to a play obviously, but most the time perception of teams doesn't point exactly the same direction!!!
Something just feels wrong here imo.. obviously nothing I'm saying means in slightest phils have to or are going to win, I have their chances just slightly better than 50/50. I just don't understand cards being lined where I have Phillies chances?!???!!
Wacha surface stats look great but he also sporting a career worst k/walk ratio, has highest percentage of hard hit balls of career this season. Cards offense a hot stinking mess w carpenter and fowler being complete black holes in top and middle of lineup! Ozuna not really driving the ball. God forbid Pham goes down like he did few days last week then we have no offense!!!
The only glimmer of hope I see for cards is Rackley always being bit home team friendly and being absolutely homerific this season!!
I've never been one these tin foil hat wearing conspiracy nuts, I have always believed in capping the games, trusting my methods/process, and playing where I see value.
I'm not into attempting to "read" anything into lines or any such thing, I'm not 1 to tell others my way any better than theirs and never will, not the point of this post at all.
That all being said if there was ever a "fishy" line that screamed "trap" (or whatever guys want to call it) this has to be it!! In all seriousness even the juice lovers that have never seen a MLB fav they didn't like are gonna eat this line up!!! typical surface stats/numbers easily point phils. Digging deeper into my process there still little to nothing that says cards should be favs here, I have number damn near completely flipped which typically leads me to a play obviously, but most the time perception of teams doesn't point exactly the same direction!!!
Something just feels wrong here imo.. obviously nothing I'm saying means in slightest phils have to or are going to win, I have their chances just slightly better than 50/50. I just don't understand cards being lined where I have Phillies chances?!???!!
Wacha surface stats look great but he also sporting a career worst k/walk ratio, has highest percentage of hard hit balls of career this season. Cards offense a hot stinking mess w carpenter and fowler being complete black holes in top and middle of lineup! Ozuna not really driving the ball. God forbid Pham goes down like he did few days last week then we have no offense!!!
The only glimmer of hope I see for cards is Rackley always being bit home team friendly and being absolutely homerific this season!!
That's an interesting game, 2DB....Cards haven't lost a game at home with Wacha pitching this year...Arrieta only career 2-5 in his starts in Arch City...my initial lean was to your Redbirds...but that team may be the most inconsistent in MLB right now. Not crazy about Matheny's handling of his pen and the lineup sometimes just goes to sleep...Arrieta is too good in a spot vs. an inconsistent team and while I leaned StL to start, I just cant find enough on either side to put down a wager for this one.
The Farm
Sports Apothecary
Anderson only pitched a brief 7 games for Toronto last year with an ERA above 5 before moving to ChiTown where he moved his ERA north of 8.
I always wonder if a pitcher tries to bring their best against former teams or if my belief the former team has the advantage. Either way I believe Toronto price is 40 cents cheap
I always wonder if a pitcher tries to bring their best against former teams or if my belief the former team has the advantage. Either way I believe Toronto price is 40 cents cheap
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Legit question but I tend to lean to the side of the former team, for fringe pitchers to be good I think the distraction of the former team is a bit much
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I certainly understand that part and his k/bb ratio also leaves a lot to be desired. Thing is right now I can't imagine our offense takes much advantage. I wasn't paying lot of attention to last nights game (although it was on tv) and all I really recall is us leaving runners all over the bases!! Sometimes that a good sign but not so sure in this case.. Arrieta w pretty good numbers overall vs us but don't believe they all that impressive a Busch... I may have been overstating cards issues to degree while overlooking phils in this one but that just cause hard for me to envision them being favs vs a decent opponent. Take away our 7-0 record vs the reds and we a sub .500 team!
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I think reason I'm talking so much about is cause for whatever reason I'm having hard time pulling trigger on phils while I believe as dogs they have to absolutely be right side here, of course that has never correlated to actually winning! Normally I just fire away and don't think twice. Not as if I'm real selective so dunno what the hold up is for me on this one?? Lol
2daBank
Voice of Reason
I almost always lean to bats having the advantage seeing a guy pitch a lot of times. I prob wouldn't weight it either way only being a small fraction of a season tho.
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Another thing that makes the phils/cards gm a little problematic is we have storms coming thru here all day. Supposed to clear out this evening at some point but could potentially be a delayed start or a start then a delay during?? Really hate getting involved in potentially bad weather games but it phils or nothing imo.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Love Godley naturally and trust him to a degree but he's kinda been off last couple I watched, under ump wouldn't suck for him (or for me). Hard to see Snakes hitting Syndergaaaaaard although team is good enough the funk should be short lived and hopefully EC roadie is what they need
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Pads def have my interest.
Read something about Snell dealing w some kind of hip soreness? If he right certainly like the price backing him in some fashion.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Lol doing a million things at once, same concept. Thx scarf
tuck321
Not all those who wander are lost
Scherzer top gun on 6 this year
Sabathia was very good on 1 game not a career trait but I think he has settled down and really wants to pitch well in his last years
Straily has been reasonably bad last 2 years on 6. Fulmer poor but young and very small sample size so do not draw much from that
Freeland on 5 this season 1.65 ERA Holland low 3 on 4 might be an under game
STripling seems good but 15 innings is a little tough to be sure
Sabathia was very good on 1 game not a career trait but I think he has settled down and really wants to pitch well in his last years
Straily has been reasonably bad last 2 years on 6. Fulmer poor but young and very small sample size so do not draw much from that
Freeland on 5 this season 1.65 ERA Holland low 3 on 4 might be an under game
STripling seems good but 15 innings is a little tough to be sure
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Very strange goings in Boston, never do I see a 30 cent line discrepancy for more than a moment, this has been the case for a couple hours now that Carib has Sox -185 and both Pinny and 5D around -154. It's been my experience that when Carib is that far off, they are leaning to win side almost always. Venture to say Boston a near lock tonight for a plethora of other reasons as well
View attachment 32509
Edit...after checking nearly everyone, nobody has it higher than 165 except Carib. I have an account with carib and was able to take O's +165 for some guaranteed money just now.
View attachment 32510
View attachment 32509
Edit...after checking nearly everyone, nobody has it higher than 165 except Carib. I have an account with carib and was able to take O's +165 for some guaranteed money just now.
View attachment 32510
Last edited:
cubsker
Used to be "Fun Cub"
Doesn't seem like stl ever does anything against Jake.
mrpickem
SDQL Badass Stat Boss
Looking for something for O's and I did notice lefties don't fair that well when Barrett ref'n
Also looks bad for lefties when simplified: A and HPU= Lance Barrett and o:STL
View attachment 32511
Also looks bad for lefties when simplified: A and HPU= Lance Barrett and o:STL
View attachment 32511
Ryno14
Pretty much a regular
May seem that way, but they have hit him much better at Busch and this isn't the same Jake that we remember fondly.
wizardofodd
Resident Newlywed
Ump for home team is 7-0, average of 2.5 runs more for home teams. I'm on Cards today.
Plays for me today
Cardinal 5 units
Oakland 5 units
Giant 5 units
2daBank
Voice of Reason
Yea the ump and rain delay that was expected what kept me off of it. I just think weather delays make outcomes totally unpredictable, hell cards ended up scoring more runs than they have all week I believe!! And rackley is about as big a homer ump that I know of, at moment I can't touch a road team in a game he behind the plate. Glad ya'll cashed as always want cards to do well if im not against them. Still not real sure they should be favs in this series but thought today's line was pretty accurate so stayed away again, hope they win!! Nice hit
