Madrid/Zürich

[gpcyan3]

Last Week: 5-5-1 -.19u
YTD: 80-66-10 +12.54u

Just getting the thread up and running for this week's tournaments.
I was on track for another good profit last week until I (again!) went out of my comfort zone and played too many matches.

Madrid should be a wild tourney with practically all the best players competing. I feel Roger got the easiest draw here, which is somewhat surprising. Only real trouble he should have is Ferrer until the Semis IMO.

Zürich should be interesting as well. JH should run away with it but might face a couple tough challenges along the way.

Thoughts and plays will follow today or maybe tomorrow.

rayer

 

[Fondybadger]

Good luck today

 

[B.A.R.]

sexy tennis record

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks for the good words, Fondy and BAR.

I'm hoping to finish the year strong leading into Shanghai.

Couple plays for today...

WTA first.

I like Bartoli over Peng. Peng has been horrid this year and Bartoli has the game to flat out hit her off the court. Only thing is... Marion is a wishy/washy type IMO who sometimes just forgets to show up to the court on certain days. The low odds for Marion are too tempting for me and I'll take a shot over Peng who can't serve worth a damn this year.

Second is more of a fade on Safina than a play on Hantuchova. From what I've been reading, Safina looked like utter crap last tourney yet still seemed to win quite a few matches before Dem blew her off the court. I am very skeptical about her match fitness/serve form and I will definitely be taking a shot on a talented Hantuchova.

I also like the doggies in the other WTA matches but won't be playing them.

ATP second

For the most part I love all the dogs today on the men's side. Lots of close matches here IMO and I will most likely be playing Kiefer/Safin/Fish all at smalls odds not really worth a post for. I really like Nalbandian over Clement. I know David has been way off his game lately but he's gotta turn it around sometime. Clement has played him 3 times and has gotten beat all 3 (although they were all years ago and DN was in a different form then). I also like Haas to repeat his performance a tourney ago against Monaco, as well as, Murray to take out Chela. Murray is in great form I believe and I think he may go far into this draw.

So here are my plays.

Marion Bartoli over Shuai Peng -160 (1.6u to win 1u)
Daniela Hantuchova over Dinara Safina -170 (3.4u to win 2u)
Daniela Hantuchova -3 over Dinara Safina -110 (1.1u to win 1u)
Andy Murray over Juan Ignacio Chela -220 (2.20u to win 1u)
Andy Murray -3 over Juan Ignacio Chela -123 (1.23u to win 1u)
Parlay Nalbandian/Haas/Murray/Hantuchova (1u to win 3.45u)

Lots of plays again but spent a decent amount of time breaking things down and this is actually a small portion of what I was originally going to stake.

 

[t-dot]

I really like Murray in this tourney. If all goes to plan, I think hes the one that knocks off Nadal.

Like the parlay, I think Clement/Nalbandian is gong to be closer than people think.

 

[J.Dynomite]

I guess we picked the wrong turnament for that Monaco bet..i played over 20games this time again and almoust got fucked up again..

 

[gpcyan3]

JD - yea I was reluctant to add Haas in that parlay and should have laid off but hindsight is always 20/20, and thats how it rolls.
t-dot - Glad to hear you think Murray has a chance here and after yesterday's performance I have no doubt in my mind he is health and ready to win some matches.

For today I'm looking at a Gasquet/(Dem/someone else) to parlay. PHM coming off a finals and Gasquet being in top form last months makes me think this one will go his way. Still trying to find someone else to throw in there for a double, but haven't made up my mind yet. Dem looks good as she is playing up to her talent level lately, but motivation and fatigue might be a factor from last tourney as she fought threw a couple tough matches (or at least 1, lol). Putting a play on Murray to win it all and will be hedging that depending on the situation down the road.

Murray to win Madrid +1800 (1u to win 18u)

I'll post plays later if any.

 

[gpcyan3]

Play for today are:

Gasquet/Ferrer (1.25u to win 1.02u)

James Blake over Super Mario -130 (2.6u to win 2u)

IndoorHC suits Blake well and he has been picking and choosing his tourneys to play in. With a decent showing here, it may well put him back into the Master's Cup where he played well last year and probably wants to get back to this year. Mario doesn't have enough to play for here IMO. Blake to the bank.

 

[t-dot]

Gasquet/Ferrer and A. Murray prop just played it and was going to post it.

Freaky. Lets see if you'll get my other play.

 

[gpcyan3]

Played Ancic earlier today but didn't get around to posting it as a play. He's comeback is looking good and I now remember why he was a top 15 player only a small time ago.

30mins til match time but I cannot pass up these odds on a very talented Murray. I think this is the marquee matchup today and if Nadal wins this one, Koubek will probably score the upset later on... I see a 3 setter written all over this one. 6-4,3-6,5-7(7-5) - something like that. When Murray is on his game you can see how he can push Nadal to the limit. While I'm not totally sure Murray will win this one outright... I believe he plays well and keeps it close. The only thing I'm worried about is if Murray decides to give away a set after winning say the first in 7-6 fashion. He has been known to just throw sets away 6-2 or 6-1 after winning the first in a tight set. Overall I think there is enough value in the gameline here granted Murray takes at least 1 set from Nadal.

Murray +2.5 over Nadal +103 (1u to win 1.03u)

Let's do this.

 

[gpcyan3]

Well been another tough couple days and looks like I will be having a losing week on these tournaments unless I sweep the rest of my picks. Murray played very well and could have taken a set or won the match if a couple key points went his way... Still think that was the right side to be on, but can't win them all.

Tomorrow I'm betting on Ancic and also Vaidisova.

Vaidisova over Bondarenko -365 (3.65u to win 1u)
Vaidisova -4.5 over Bondarenko +120 (2u to win 2.4u)
Ancic over Djo +265 (1u to win 2.65u)

Let's hope these are winners and I finish the week strong.

Not much for a writeup, Ancic is playing great and most importantly... he is serving great. Djo said he is tired and from watching him I have to agree he looks fatigued. Good value.
Vaidisova is playing great tennis and Bondarenko just played 2 3 setters in a row and should be happy to have made it this far. I see a 6-4, 6-1 result here as I think Bondarenko will bow out in the final set.

 

[Songo]

like Nicole, gl bro

 

[gpcyan3]

Thanks Songo.

Nichole was dominate as expected, Ancic...not so much.

Tomorrow I can't help to take a shot at Nalbandian. Has he recovered his form of old? I think not but he is playing well and I still believe Djo is tired. David can beat Federer on IHC as shown in the Master's Cup a year or 2 ago and I would love to see that matchup. Let's not forget Nalbandian was a top 5 player for a while until his wrist(?) problems.

I'm not sure how this line will move but I'm putting a unit on it early.

Nalbandian over Djokovic +180 (1u to win 1.8u)

 

[gpcyan3]

Good to see Nalbandian produce a decent run in a big tournament again. Federer and Henin should both win tomorrow and I might take a small parlay of both of them. Overall another tough week but ended up on the positive, so I guess I can't complain too much...

Week recap: 7-7 +1.25u

Also, glad to see my avatar make it to another final. Tati is gonna be one to reckon with next year! I should have continued to back her this tourney, alas I didn't.

Another good tourney week coming up. Lyon and a few others!