Madrid Open

[Johnnyonthespot]

Not sure how much good information I can post. More to entice GLB and P-unit, and big unit to post.

Ferrer so had his hands full today against Ramos. Played lots of ESP guys the last two days. This match was two spaniards. I think there was like 6 or 7 breaks in the second set. Ferrer was down 6-2 tiebreaker first set and won 8-6. Up 5-4 and 30 love 2nd set and lost 7-5. Crazy match.

Line looked odd with Fognini dogged as 13th seed and won that. Im clueless mostly. Usually look for big favorites early and leverage to the hilt. A good way to go tilt. Ferrer is almost a good example of that.

 

[P-Unit]

Kuznetsova +110 over Radwanska (10-3 lifetime head to head) - auto bet for me there and will probably play it bigger. Wozniacki also might be worth a look.

Men's side I'll probably play Tsonga and possibly Youzhny, though he's coming off an injury.

 

[P-Unit]

Lots of steam on Caroline Garcia over Maria Kirilenko also. Interesting but -265 is too high for me.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Good stuff p. What happened to WaWa? First set winner 6-1 and then the kid took over. Shocked to say the least.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I can't follow the steam because I don't have a site that shows me openers. Who do you use for that info?

 

[theking]

I took the Sjisling/Niemenin over 22.5 (-108)

Think their styles of play will trend towards a tie-break and/or a 3 set match. Hoping for the best here, first clay bet of the season

 

[P-Unit]

I can't follow the steam because I don't have a site that shows me openers. Who do you use for that info?

I check my site to see when lines are up and record them as soon as I can find them. Then I usually wait until shortly before the match starts to bet it. I use the steam to help identify potential plays and then dig into H2H, how they play on that particular surface, etc.

 

[P-Unit]

I took Sjisling this morning based on steam and he got destroyed. Certainly not a foolproof system lol.

 

[P-Unit]

Kuznetsova +110 over Radwanska (10-3 lifetime head to head) - auto bet for me there and will probably play it bigger. Wozniacki also might be worth a look.

Men's side I'll probably play Tsonga and possibly Youzhny, though he's coming off an injury.

Hope you faded these plays. JFC

 

[P-Unit]

Shitty day. On to the next

Dimitrov
Nishikori
Safarova
Radwanska

May look at Ivanovic as well but the four above will be my main plays. Got a hunch on Safarova. She's playing better but 0-3 lifetime in this matchup. Steam play. Nishi should roll. He's a much better clay court player. Radwanska owns Vinci. Dimitrov should give Berdych all he can handle.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Those days happen. Thanks for the info on lines. I'm wondering if Thiem can keep it up. Wish he wasn't playing a hometown boy tomorrow. Nishi looks to be playing on very high level. Went all in first round with him as a "lock". I wanted to play Isner this morning but twice in a row when I hit it he got cheaper and it scared me off. It was a barn burner. Do you think he can/will beat Ferrer?

Any matches look like obvious 3 setters to you?

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I took the Sjisling/Niemenin over 22.5 (-108)

Think their styles of play will trend towards a tie-break and/or a 3 set match. Hoping for the best here, first clay bet of the season

Any other over / unders you feeling?

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Can Kubot actually beat Agut?

 

[theking]

Tennis overs are so hit and miss...I didn't expect Niemenin to dominate his service game as he did. Sjisling actually took out Raonic last year in straight sets @ Wimbeldon.

Speaking of Raonic -- big game against Nishikori for both of these players. Winner advances in a 'somewhat' soft draw, I think either of these two guys could potentially make it to the final. I'll be up at 6:05am to watch this one. I'll probably just hit live whoever loses the first set and cheer for the underdog.


Wow, Nishikori is +689 to win the tournament....I think that is crazy! Raonic sits +5100...so I guess this one is Nishikori's match according to the oddsmakers. Isn't it possible that Nishikori could be slightly fatigued from his tournament win last week? He did show signs of fatigue when he withdrew from matches in the Sony Open after winning some incredible matches in a row. Now I know he has not had that type of schedule at Madrid but he did play a lot last week. Milos on the other hand should be well rested and focused knowing he can earn some valuable points with this victory and possible wins moving forward in the tournament.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

read a funny article about how some bookie put 10,000 to 1 odds for Federer's 2 set of twins will play in the wimbledon mixed doubles finals

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Tennis overs are so hit and miss...I didn't expect Niemenin to dominate his service game as he did. Sjisling actually took out Raonic last year in straight sets @ Wimbeldon.

Speaking of Raonic -- big game against Nishikori for both of these players. Winner advances in a 'somewhat' soft draw, I think either of these two guys could potentially make it to the final. I'll be up at 6:05am to watch this one. I'll probably just hit live whoever loses the first set and cheer for the underdog.


Wow, Nishikori is +689 to win the tournament....I think that is crazy! Raonic sits +5100...so I guess this one is Nishikori's match according to the oddsmakers. Isn't it possible that Nishikori could be slightly fatigued from his tournament win last week? He did show signs of fatigue when he withdrew from matches in the Sony Open after winning some incredible matches in a row. Now I know he has not had that type of schedule at Madrid but he did play a lot last week. Milos on the other hand should be well rested and focused knowing he can earn some valuable points with this victory and possible wins moving forward in the tournament.

i think the overs in a non GS setting is really tough because really you are banking on 3 set game whereas at least there is a chance of a comeback in a 5 setter.

 

[P-Unit]

Small wagers on Cilic and Ivanovic. Pretty much flat so far today.

I just can't figure out Safarova.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Yeah Safarova was up early in 1st set, than faded. Good job on the other chicks.

Since all you guys in this thread know tennis much better than I, I know so little about WTA, if you ever see a match less than -900 in either ATP/WTA that you feel has a GREAT chance of not losing I would love to hear them. As I dont mind picking pennies up in front of a steamroller. Agut felt that way today. I think last night he was -660 and this morning -720

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Good thoughts theKing on the nishi match.

Match of the tournament so far, huh. I noticed Rafa didnt cover the -7. Whatcha thinking tomorrow in ATP?

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

i think the overs in a non GS setting is really tough because really you are banking on 3 set game whereas at least there is a chance of a comeback in a 5 setter.

:aok:

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

I should have back Ferrer for the rebound today. No nonsense.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Played rafa ml -605

Played over 23.5 Agut/Giraldo

 

[King Slap]

Huge Gulbis fan here - don't like his chances today, which means he'll probably win. Loved him yesterday vs Cilic

Bautista Agut putting on a clinic vs the hottest guy on tour, Giraldo, right now

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

yeah Slap, couldnt break him, almost did, oh well, should bet have bet on the spaniard and not gotten so cute.

i actually think Gulbis very live and I expect Nishi to be solid.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Lopez is from Madrid. Two Spaniards already in Semi. This is wild. Could be all 4?

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

if Ferrer wins, Im betting large on Nishi

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Im thinking of chasing a three setter here with Ferrer and playing Gulbis for a unit.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

023/-105 +189 Gulbis

 

[big_units]

been pretty busy lately so i didn't start a madrid thread...i'll just post here instead. hadn't bet anything all tournament until yesterday i got ferrer live at both -3.5 and +3.5. yes, +3.5. i love my tennis site.

gulbis giving ferrer a good battle right now.

 

[big_units]

madrid looks much better with blue clay

 

[big_units]

live gulbis +3 +100

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

How about that? Breaks Ferrer to go up 3-2, and gets broke twice for the close.

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

-1 unit


rafa -1500
Agut +1000

Nish +195
ferrer -235

 

[theking]

Not sure what the oddsmaker's see but Nishikori at +190 looks pretty damn good to me. For that reason I'm going small on it, but what the fuck. Nishikori gets no respect all of a sudden.

I gotta play Jap here, should be one hell of a match.

Upon reading some more, looks like Nishikori tweaked his back in during the match he won today. Perhaps thats why the strong Ferrer line, but I think I'll still play Nishikori.

 

[big_units]

How about that? Breaks Ferrer to go up 3-2, and gets broke twice for the close.

pretty bad...and the umpire's call was even worse...would have made it 5-4 with gulbis serving to tie it up

 

[Johnnyonthespot]

Yeah, that was painful as hell. How about Petra this morning? Wins 7-6, up 2-0 and basically gets run over the rest of the way. Tell you what these WTA women are hot, hot, hot

Nishi/Ferrer sick match.

 

[theking]

Wow Nishikori is a god damn warrior out there...Sadly he probably used up all his energy just to get to the final against Nadal, its a damn shame they don't give them 48 hours rest because I think Nishi can push Nadal when healthy.

 

[Toronto_Mike]

Nish is heating up at the right time, should get some favorable matchups for RG

 

[theking]

Nish is heating up at the right time, should get some favorable matchups for RG

Kids been playing great tennis ever since Japan beat Canada in the Davis Cup. Essentially was playing for double the paycheque today... about $237,000 if he lost and about $475,000 if he won.

Winner of the entire tournament gets $960,000.

 

[big_units]

shitapova isn't even going to be able to make one of her famous meltdowns--she is collapsing right at the start of the match

 

[big_units]

live halep -160

 

[big_units]

halep wins 2nd set -110

 

[big_units]

shitapova actually recovered...lets see if she can avoid a 3rd set meltdown