MACtion Week 2 Discussion with Marsski

Marsski

Marsski

MAC Marvel
For the true degenerates, we're back for week 2.

Week 1 saw overs go 4-1, 3 juicy ML dogs hit and dogs went 4-1 ATS....I think I was 6 and 2


My card goes here:

Eastern -6.5 to win 1 unit
Buffalo +7.5 to win 1 unit
Eastern TT Over 33 to win half unit (-115)

Tuesday

7PM
Buffalo @ Miami -7 57

7PM
Akron @ Western -26 62

8PM
Ohio @ Eastern -7 60.5


Wednesday

Toledo @ BG +9.5 51

Ball St @ Northern +2.5 63

Kent @ Central -3 72


I'll be in tonight with some thoughts. Please chime in with your thoughts, comments, complaints, picks and such...
 
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Can we really trust Kent St on the road? Their offense can stall at any time, and their defense doesnt show up most of the time.

BG catching nearly dd at home is intriguing....Toledo is a total cluster.....

EMU has the defense to contain a very pedestrian Ohio attack

Buffalo shouldnt be catching 7 imo
 
Darn it…..didn’t play the overs last week….

Gonna hop on the train this week…..hope it continues!!!!!!!
 
Not sure who is betting Ohio as the spread continues to dip, down to 6 now.

I came away from last week very impressed with EMU QB...decision making, touch, arm...he's good. I guess that's why they are throwing up 50 spots.

The Bobcats D got thrown all over by Gabbert in the second half last week which seems to suggest to me that they aren't consistent enough to put together four quarters of solid defensive football. They are improved but they aren't, you know, good. This is a bad matchup for the Cats defensively as they are not good in the secondary and struggle to get a good pass rush. Beydoun is gonna have another big day.

Rourke has been better at QB but I wouldn't be surprised by some regression to the mean in this one. The Cats should be able to run the ball a little bit BUT they struggle on third down and in the red zone in conference games. I think when they get down to EMU a score or two they have will to open up the passing game, and I doubt that will go well.

EMU has a division crown to play for and OU has nothing to play for and probably partied all weekend after beating their rival Miami. EMU has a huge coaching edge in this one. So I get better QB, better offense, better coach, better motivation and similar defenses by backing EMU.

I played E Michigan when I saw a 6.5, I think they win by a couple of scores. Lean to the over because you can't play the under in MACtion without some real good reasoning right now...this could be a thrashing. Ohio has a crazy streak going of not losing by more than 7 points in MAC play in like 6 years, I think it probably comes to an end in Ypsilanti.

The Play: Eastern -6.5 to win 1 unit
 
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I don't know what to do with Akron as they are now coached by the LB coach. It's hard to know how the team is going to respond. Western should definitely get their points. I think it's a stay away or play the MACtion auto over

Pass on Akron/Western; lean to over 62
 
Marsski said:
Not sure who is betting Ohio as the spread continues to dip, down to 6 now.

I came away from last week very impressed with EMU QB...decision making, touch, arm...he's good. I guess that's why they are throwing up 50 spots.

The Bobcats D got thrown all over by Gabbert in the second half last week which seems to suggest to me that they aren't consistent enough to put together four quarters of solid defensive football. They are improved but they aren't, you know, good. This is a bad matchup for the Cats defensively as they are not good in the secondary and struggle to get a good pass rush. Beydoun is gonna have another big day.

Rourke has been better at QB but I wouldn't be surprised by some regression to the mean in this one. The Cats should be able to run the ball a little bit BUT they struggle on third down and in the red zone in conference games. I think when they get down to EMU a score or two they have will to open up the passing game, and I doubt that will go well.

EMU has a division crown to play for and OU has nothing to play for and probably partied all weekend after beating their rival Miami. EMU has a huge coaching edge in this one. So I get better QB, better offense, better coach, better motivation and similar defenses by backing EMU.

I played E Michigan when I saw a 6.5, I think they win by a couple of scores. Lean to the over because you can't play the under in MACtion without some real good reasoning right now...this could be a thrashing. Ohio has a crazy streak going of not losing by more than 7 points in MAC play in like 6 years, I think it probably comes to an end in Ypsilanti.

The Play: Eastern -6.5 to win 1 unit
Click to expand...
Off the board at my book..
 
Rusty Trombone said:
Buffalo shouldnt be catching 7 imo
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I think it is high as well. Plenty of 7.5s available now. Maybe line reflects the UB QB situation is Vantrese is out? Meyers has been around a while with starts under his belt. Not sure he is quite as good, but it shouldn't be a huge drop off.

When Buffalo lost to BG, the box score is just so crazy. Bowling Green had just 11 first downs....and 44 points! Nothing wrong with Buffalo O, just a slow start, trailed 3-21 then would finish the game with slightly more RY, PY and TY and way more first downs (36-11). I didn't see the game, but looking at stats, BG had 10.5 ypp! Crazy!

One thing to note, they have been down by multiple scores in several MAC games. Come back in some of them. Trailed BG 3-21 and by 2-3 scores off-and-on, lost by 12 (BG scored long TD run in final minute when it looked like QB might just look to fall down or take a knee I think), trailed Ohio 0-21 came back to win, trailed Kent 0-21 and 10-31 HT, came back to lead at one point and lost by 10. Trailed WM by 14 late, lost by 7. Led ODU 35-0 HT, then ODU scored 34 unanswered 2nd H and UB won because of a missed xpt.

So lots of evidence they get down big, often comeback, or get up big and allow other team to comeback. They are weird team this year. They only outrushed Akron 231-229 (4.7-5.1).

I could see myself on the points, but I don't think this has upset potential for Buffalo.
 
I am not sure what to expect out of Western Mich. The OL is pretty bad. Maybe won't matter vs Akron..

Such a promising season for them pretty much shot now. 4-1 at one point. Then lose to Ball St due to sacks allowed and turnovers, lose to Central Mich due to sacks and turnovers, and special teams. In WM's 3 MAC losses (which is 3 of their last 4 games) they are -9 turnover margin. 5-4 now. They are 2-3 and actually dead last in the West standings!

It's their final home game. I wouldn't be surprised if they came out and just went through the motions and Akron is in the game, or if WM comes out and just rolls them 52-10.
 
Before last week Miami had been a good Under team. From 9/18 through 10/23 their unders went 5-1.
Buffalo games have been higher scorhing, but from 9/18 through 10/30 their Unders went 4-3, although the 3 of the 4 Unders covered by just 2, 2, and 4.5
 
Not sure who Miami is to be giving more than one score with that offense. I think Buffalo will get the running game going and if they get down they have the capability to come back as is discussed above. Miami's rush defense has been trampled by the better attacks they faced (Army, Minny).

RB McDuffie has been eating in the last three games--34 for 166, 22 for 108 and 23 for 143...

If you cover Sorenson, Miami's offense is pretty average to bad. Gabbert struggled early vs. the Bobcats who he should have shredded. This feels like a FG game one way or another to me.

Played Buffalo +7.5 to win 1 unit
 
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Marsski said:
Not sure who Miami is to be giving more than one score with that offense. I think Buffalo will get the running game going and if they get down they have the capability to come back as is discussed above. Miami's rush defense has been trampled by the better attacks they faced (Army, Minny).

RB McDuffie has been eating in the last three games--34 for 166, 22 for 108 and 23 for 143...

If you cover Sorenson, Miami's offense is pretty average to bad. Gabbert struggled early vs. the Bobcats who he should have shredded. This feels like a FG game one way or another to me.

Played Buffalo +7.5 to win 1 unit
Click to expand...

I was kinda thinking the same thing when I saw that line. Glad you agree.
 
Miami with either Gabbert or Mayer only averaged 239 ypg passing before last week's 492. So they don't do that all the time. They averaged 30 pass att in the other 8 games and 57 last week. They got down big so they had to just throw every down almost. They want to run, aren't great at it vs equal competition, but they want to do it. Avg 35 rush att before last week, only avg 25 last week after getting down big.
 
2daBank said:
I think Akron/cmu has potential to get well into the 60s.
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so that comment was based off actually seeing both these teams a bit,what ive seen of akron the defense is freaking awful and they can pass a little. vmu offenses seemed explosive to me when they beat pitt! Problem is when i dig into the numbers they dont exactly agree with my eyes, both teams are near the bottom of the county in pace of play, both attempt to run quite a bit, and neither allows their opponent to run a bunch of plays. Not sure i can play a over 62 with those kinds of problems even if i do expect both teams to score some points. will Akron play better d with firing of coach and promotion of linebackers coach? i dont know but it prob wont make them a more aggressive offense. we have seen some teams rise up this season after a coach getting fired, seems like a tough thing to predict tho. Guess i cant play the over.


this Akron squad has seemed much more game than past years, did the fired coach have anything to do with that? i know the one wonderful cover they got for me they called time outs down 26 with opponent trying to run clock out to get the ball back with 30 seconds and score to cover! all credit to the kids for fighting but will the interim coach play it the same? these kids should have won as 20 point dogs last week if wasnt for a unfortunate fumble going in for the winning score, seems like a odd time to fire a guy but they have proven to me they have fight in them. With a game that should have the clock running and limited possessions, with a team who has shown no quit, i think i like the idea of taking the +26 if i gotta play it (and i kinda do, lol). Zips have scored 20+ in 3 of the last 4 and i think if they can get me 20 here that should be enough to cover the big number. maybe team total over 17.5 just as good? thinking maybe ill split between +26 and tt over 17.5.
 
Regarding Arth the Akron coach who was fired. I agree with you 2dabank, there have been signs of improvement this year. However, when I read Akron message board, the fans are very very unhappy with Arth - both his attitude and recruiting philosophy. So we never really know. The fact Akron played as well and as hard as they did last week tells me the kids hadn't given up for sure and they were responding (as best they can) for coach.

What now? Who knows. Can the D improve? Only way I think they could improve is if they LB Arslanian back. I don't know how close he might be or if that is possible. He's good player. As limited of coverage as there is for a team like this, we won't know if he is playing until we turn on the TV or listen to pregame radio. Not like I think you'd swing your bet on that news, but it'd be nice to have him if you play Akron.

Western Michigan in the first half last week was very slow with the play clock, almost like they were purposefully trying to bleed it in the first half. The way the game went, they had to try and play catchup in the 2nd H.
 
Ball State isn't an overly strong running team. In 6 of their 9 games this year they averaged just 2.65ypc (every game below 3.49 ypc). They had their best rushing output of the season vs Akron (no shock) with 240 and 5.71. The only other games they ran for similar yardage was Western Illinois and Eastern Michigan.

Western Mich running game should be in for a big night. Surprisingly they don't normally have as much success running as they should. But did run for 341 on Kent State!
 
s--k said:
Regarding Arth the Akron coach who was fired. I agree with you 2dabank, there have been signs of improvement this year. However, when I read Akron message board, the fans are very very unhappy with Arth - both his attitude and recruiting philosophy. So we never really know. The fact Akron played as well and as hard as they did last week tells me the kids hadn't given up for sure and they were responding (as best they can) for coach.

What now? Who knows. Can the D improve? Only way I think they could improve is if they LB Arslanian back. I don't know how close he might be or if that is possible. He's good player. As limited of coverage as there is for a team like this, we won't know if he is playing until we turn on the TV or listen to pregame radio. Not like I think you'd swing your bet on that news, but it'd be nice to have him if you play Akron.

Western Michigan in the first half last week was very slow with the play clock, almost like they were purposefully trying to bleed it in the first half. The way the game went, they had to try and play catchup in the 2nd H.
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fans are assholes and honestly i think 80% of them are fucking retarded!! How can you hate a guy who's team not only has seemingly shown improvement but a guy who call time outs with less than a minute left to get ball back and cover a spread!!!! Dude is my hero, if he ever needs a place to crash my extra bedroom always available!!! Or if he just wants to get a beer it on me, i owe him at least that!! Playing that game out the way he did cashed me a couple 2 team, 3, and 4 team parlays!! Ill be damned if i sit here while they shit on him!! direct me to the fan boards so i can raise hell!!! All that said i dunno how long he been there or any the other circumstances, like is he responsible for the shit show they are or did he inherit a mess? obviously that a big difference and i dont know the answer, i just know he seemed to be doing a pretty damn good job this year with limited talent, dunno what more ya could ask for? He didnt make the kid fumble while going in for the win as 20 point dogs last week, would he have been fired if they won that game? Id assume the kids continue giving us the same good effort, just hope the replacement coach does the same when it comes to covering the spread!!!

Yea that slow, bleeding the clock style makes betting a over 62 really damn scary regardless how many ypp both these defenses surrender!! Certainly wouldnt expect game script to be forcing wmu into going up tempo in this one. Both teams would prefer to run it a bunch, i would expect they have success doing so against these defenses. i went ahead and played Akron+24.5, was kinda hoping it got up to 27 but when i got to casino it had dropped. Dont see a ton of difference in 24.5 to 26 so i pulled the trigger as im pretty sure it will never sniff +27. So akron will be my only mac play tonight, didnt see much sense in playing more than that when we have 3 nba games to pick off props and the start of COLLEGE HOOPS BABY!!!
 
Toledo outgained Eastern Mich 672-490 (8.6-6.3)! 211 on the ground is typical, but the 30-46-461-3-1 passing isn't. Their pass O had been a wreck this season. They averaged just 214 ypg in 8 games prior and had a few games where they hit just 50% completions or even less.

Like in the OU-Miami game, due to circumstances Toledo had to throw it a lot more than they typically do. Avg 29 attempts in other 8 games, attempted 46 passes last game.
 
From Northern Illinois student news article 11/5/21:

Lombardi also left the Kent State game after a hit to the head, but there’s no official word on his status for the Ball State game.
Click to expand...

WR Tyrice Richie also left the game and was on crutches on sideline.
 
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Rusty Trombone said:
Can we really trust Kent St on the road? Their offense can stall at any time, and their defense doesnt show up most of the time.
Click to expand...

Kent D is as bad as it's ever been. Buffalo and WMich each ran for over 300 yards 5.8 and 6.7 ypc) and NIU set a school record and passed for over 500 yards on them!

A lot is made of Kent's positive TO ratio, but Western Mich and NIU both passed for a 3-0 TD-INT ratio each against them. WM passed 14 yards per catch and NIU connected for 9.3.
 
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s--k said:
Kent D is as bad as it's ever been. Buffalo and WMich each ran for over 300 yards 5.8 and 6.7 ypc) and NIU set a school record and passed for over 500 yards on them!

A lot is made of Kent's positive TO ratio, but Western Mich and NIU both passed for a 3-0 TD-INT ratio each against them. WM passed 14 yards per catch and NIU connected for 9.3.
Click to expand...

I dunno if this has continued to be a problem in Mac play but Kent was horrific in the red zone during out of conf. Doesn’t get counted as such but repeatedly failing to score td’s when in range just as bad a turnover imo.
 
s--k said:
Toledo outgained Eastern Mich 672-490 (8.6-6.3)! 211 on the ground is typical, but the 30-46-461-3-1 passing isn't. Their pass O had been a wreck this season. They averaged just 214 ypg in 8 games prior and had a few games where they hit just 50% completions or even less.

Like in the OU-Miami game, due to circumstances Toledo had to throw it a lot more than they typically do. Avg 29 attempts in other 8 games, attempted 46 passes last game.
Click to expand...

I really love some the stats you come with bro!! Never stop! Lol
 
2daBank said:
I dunno if this has continued to be a problem in Mac play but Kent was horrific in the red zone during out of conf. Doesn’t get counted as such but repeatedly failing to score td’s when in range just as bad a turnover imo.
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Kent's last 5 games, all MAC, they are 17 TDs on 27 RZ trips = 63%. That's about average if compared to all teams nationally. Kent's non-con games they were just 6 of 17 = 35% which is just flat out awful. But that did include games vs Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland.
 
Did take a prop on Marski’s dude from last week at over 63.5 rec yards. Was impressed with him. Next great NFL MAC receiver…
 
strange they blew the forward progress whistle on that one WMich run where he went in. Akron stuffed them the next two runs and now is 4th down.
 
I remember before phones and laptop computers I hated when college basketball started because on a Saturday it took forever to wait for a score update on a nontelevised football game.
 
s--k said:
Kent's last 5 games, all MAC, they are 17 TDs on 27 RZ trips = 63%. That's about average if compared to all teams nationally. Kent's non-con games they were just 6 of 17 = 35% which is just flat out awful. But that did include games vs Texas A&M, Iowa and Maryland.
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Im aware, I had them a few times not covering thanks to not finishing drives.
 
Nice that Akron is sustaining some drives and keeping clock running. You have Akron Bank?
 
I have full game Akron and Under. I have Buffalo 1st H and full game. Also took 1st H Under which is sure to lose there.
 
s--k said:
I have full game Akron and Under. I have Buffalo 1st H and full game. Also took 1st H Under which is sure to lose there.
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Buff 1H over 28.5, Buff +7, BUFF game over 57.5, Akron 1H TT over 7.5, Akron +25, EMU TT 1H over 16.5, TT over 33, EMU rec Prop mentioned above, EMU QB over 1.5 TD,
 
This Akron - Ohio State basketball is delaying our MACtion! Maybe they put it on ESPNews
 
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