Local summer of golf

[Alan Tongue]

These 3 tournaments (Masters, Open, PGA)are generally very thin, and therefore if you know the players you can profit. Those coming back from the US Tour always go well, and that form holds up as does the Euro form.

First event is the Masters. Huntingdale is on the sand belt in Melbourne. Great courses there, and the greens are fast, and if the heat comes they will be real fast. Normally there are 3-4 class players in the field, but there is only one this week – Adam Scott. Winner of the event in 2012 & 2013, and beaten a shot last year. We know how good he is, and he is the only player here in the world top 50. +275 out there is short, but the field is thin. Worth a bet at the short odds. Only concern is he generally goes well fresh (played 7 of last 9 weeks) and was a bit wayward last week in China

Lefty’s have a good record this course and the best this year is Richard Green. Won this event on this course in 2004 and runner-up in 2006 (behind Justin Rose). Done ok on the Euro Tour this year. Made 16 of 21 cuts, 3 T10’s. Was 37[SUP]th[/SUP] in his last start in the Turkish Open in a decent field (finished same score as McDowell, who won on the US Tour last week). Finished under par in 6 of his last 7 tournaments.

There’s a second year pro in the markets that many don’t recognise, so I think I’m getting a good price. Cameron Smith is only 22 and finished tied for 4[SUP]th[/SUP] in the US Open this year and T25th in the US PGA. Played 13 events on the US tour in the season just completed for 8 cuts made, 2 top 10’s and 5 top 25’s. I’ve price guys with worse form then this at a third of the odds in this event over the years. Top 5 last season in the Order of Merit on the Asian Tour, not bad for a 21yo first year pro.

Other guys in the field of note I can’t have because of bad price, bad form or not a suitable course – Steven Bowditch, John Senden, Nicolas Colsaerts, Matthew Millar.

The Australian Open is next week and already on Spieth. Won by 6 last year on the same course and is a better player this year. Already in the country acclimatising and playing some sand belt course this week.


Masters
Scott 3 units (+175)
Smith 1 unit (+2200)
Green 0.5 unit (+2900)

Open
Spieth 5 units (+160). Will probably go back for more

 

[Alan Tongue]

Not the result we were looking for last week. Scott led after the first round but that recent waywardness came back. Thye event was won by a 56yo, beating an amateur.

Not going away from my early thoughts for this week. Spieth wins. There are a few bets to be made in other markets though. Marc Leishman goes well at home. Beaten in a playoff in the British Open this year, comes off 11th in the HSBC and top 30 in a PGA event the week before. Bryson DeChambeau is the 5th ranked Amateur in the world. Current US Amateur champion and won the individual at this years NCAA championships. Finished second in the masters last week, so has adapted to the greens well.

Two years ago this tournament was a shootout between McIlroy and Scott. What caught my eye was the 150yo that finished 23rd. came back last year and finished 17th in Melbourne and 28th here. Still only 17, Ryan Ruffels is worth a bet. Played the Canadian open this year and was T4 after the 1st round. I think he has one low round in him

Spieth 5 units (+160)
Spieth 2 units (+200)
Leisman Top 10 1 unit (+160)
DeChambeau Top 10 1 unit (+330)
Ruffels Top 10 1 unit (+1100)

 

[braves]

nice writeups, good luck

 

[B.A.R.]

Good stuff, missed this thread. BOL.

 

[Alan Tongue]

No joy last week. Spieth finished second, couldn’t hole a putt. Everything went Jones’ way on Sunday, and you need a bit of luck to win. With such a thin field the cream always rises, and a Houston Open winner beat Spieth and Scott. The two amateurs did ok, but one bad round for each of them messed it up. Ruffels finished 20[SUP]th[/SUP] (not bad for the 17yo) and DeChambeau 30[SUP]th[/SUP]. Onto the PGA.

Ugh, what an ugly event this is. Snedeker is favourite. Although the class of the field cannot touch him. Off back to back missed cuts, and hasn’t made a top 10 since the US Open. Might just be here on vacation and get some Queensland sun. Depending on where you look, John Senden could be favourite. Closed with a 67 on Sunday, but cannot have him either. One win in the past nine years is enough to turn me off him.

Next in line is Brett Rumford. Finished 8[SUP]th[/SUP] last week, but should have finished higher. Took a number of risks on the back 9 on Sunday to try to and win, but didn’t come off. Finished top 10 in the Masters, so is going well. Last win was on the European Tour in May 2013, when he won on consecutive weeks, so he does hold form. $19 around town looks ok

David Lingmerth is an interesting starter this week. Won The Memorial back in June, beating Justin Rose in a playoff. Followed that up three T10’s and a 12[SUP]th[/SUP] in the PGA. That form wins this. However, in six events since he has been poor. This will be the only time Rumford will be the same price as him.

Cameron Smith did nothing for me two weeks back, but finished 13[SUP]th[/SUP] last week. The Masters price two weeks ago was great, and he’s a better price this week

Australian PGA
Rumford 1 Unit $19
Lingmerth 1 Unit $19
Smith 1 Unit $23

Nedbank Challenge
Fisher 1 Unit $29
Fisher (Top 4) 1 Unit $6

 

[Alan Tongue]

Snedeker +12. Equal withMohammad Rauf Mandhu :rofl: