Right now I have three categories of horses for Saturday:
Tosses
Firenze Fire - Outlined reasons above
Combatant - Outlined reasons above.
Free Drop Billy - His Holy Bull was OK but he couldn't stick with Audible. Favored in the Gotham and got a good pace to run into, but beaten convincingly by Entice and Old Time Revival, then finished fourth in Blue Grass and DQ'd to 3rd. Declining numbers from the fresh Holy Bull run to now. He figures to run about in the 3rd quadrant of horses pace-wise and hasn't shown a big late kick all year.
Bravaso - Comes off an awful effort in LA Derby after winning Risen Star by a nose as a 21-1 shot vs Snapper Sinclair, who wasn't good enough to make the gate for Saturday. 0 for 2 at Churchill including a lousy effort in a G2 won by Enticed.
Promises Fulfilled - Expected to be the pace presence, has yet to trail at the second call in his career. Very tough to wire at the Derby and he figures to have to absorb a challenge early from the favorite. Wilted against pace pressure in the FL Derby. Son of Shackleford seems just a bit short for 10 panels.
Lone Sailor - His LA Derby runner up finish was big leap in figures and is suspect to a drop off. Only win was on a sloppy track, winless on fast tracks. Has a 2nd in a Churchill stake but was a non-factor in the Jockey Club. Guess the weakness of the LA Derby is his biggest drawback.
Can make a case buuuttt....
Noble Indy - Winner of that weak LA Derby, probably fourth out of Pletcher's foursome. Was bumped around in both LA races and still ran well. Johnny V passes on sticking with him though, which is telling.
Instilled Regard - That SA Derby rates so well at the top that even the fourth place finisher has good numbers. IR reached the par figure for the Derby, which means in theory he could hit the board.
Flameaway - Versatile, has won on three surfaces, one turn and two turns, has run within 3 lengths of Juvy Turf/UAE Derby Winner Mendelssohn and less than two lengths from 2YO champion Good Magic in the Bluegrass. Experienced, 9 starts, 7 different tracks, only missed the board twice. BUT, lone dud in 9 starts was at Churchill. Figures to be in the first flight and has shown staying power in the stretch. Hard to see winning but if the pace and track are right he could hang on for a piece like Firing Line.
Mendelssohn - Looked like he was flying in the UAE Derby, but the opposition may have been suspect. Will learn something about him when runner-up Rayya runs in the Oaks, which is nice. Track was said to be very speed biased, and he drew the whip in the stretch which inflated the margin. Timeform gave the effort a 120, which is 12 behind Justify and only 8th best in the field. All the usual travel caveats apply. But he's more proven than past entrants, with a BC win, even if it was on turf.
Solomini - The other Baffert, took the Arkansas route that American Pharoah dominated but was beaten both times by Magnum Moon, who was lugging out in his Derby win. Pace was soft in that one, so the lack of progress in the stretch can be excused a bit. Outraced McKinzie and Instilled Regard in the G1 Los Al Futurity, but was demoted to 3rd. Third off the layoff will help, and he always looks good in training with 6 of 7 works running no worse than second on the day. Grade 1 record is solid 4 1-2-1 (technically 0-2-2 with the DQ).
Hofburg - Probably the biggest mystery, came out of his maiden win to run 2nd in the FL Derby. Is that a reflection of his talent or of the Derby field? Solid speed figure improvement in his two 2018 races, now third off the layoff. Mott has only one classic win and would probably love some roses to top off his Hall of Fame career. Barn had a first out winner at Belmont on Saturday, which is unusual as well. Maybe a huge story in the making.
My Boy Jack - Seems like he could be this year's Lookin at Lee (either him or Vino Rosso). Most experienced in the field, also most predictable race style as he's a stone cold one run closer. Probably explains why he was mostly a turf router as a two year old, but has yet to miss the board in four graded stakes on dirt. If it rains he'll be heavily used underneath, as he romped in the muddy Southwest. Would need a pace meltdown to have a win chance, which is unlikely. Should be really sharp with the short 3 week layoff.
Magnum Moon - Unbeaten, won fairly easily in Arkansas but drew concern with his lug out in the stretch. Other than that has done absolutely nothing wrong. Neither had Gemologist though in 2012. I just get the impression he's closer to that than Always Dreaming. But unbeaten is unbeaten.
Enticed - Won the Gotham but with the new Aqueduct surface it was a one turn race. However, his lone two turn win was the Jockey Club at Churchill, so that merits some respect. New York quality was not as bad as past years, but Enticed went to NY after getting solidly beaten in the Holy Bull, so there's some mixed messages there. Not much stretch gain in his two turn efforts, and will probably be mid pack heading to the turn so he'll have plenty of work to do.
Main contenders
Justify - THE favorite, getting as much if not more buzz than Pharoah got. His top speed figure crushes everyone but Bolt D'Oro, and his 2nd best number has him right in contention. Fast or sloppy, excelled in both. Biggest drawback is the largest field he's seen is six opponents. Anything can happen in a field of 20. Does he have enough bottom to go the ten furlongs?
Bolt D'Oro - Interesting point I heard today which makes sense is Bolt is the one horse in the race besides Justify that doesn't need to get faster to have a great win chance. Strong grade 1 experience 4 2-1-1. Seems like the Dortmund to Justify's Pharoah. Javier gets off him which given his Derby record may be a plus.
Good Magic - 2YO Champ showed good form coming back as a 3YO in March and then won the Blue Grass in solid fashion. Third off the layoff should have him primed for a strong effort. Can't really knock him, and he's got a great trainer in Chad who I'm sure really wants to win this race and will have him cranked up.
Audible - Another horse that's tough to knock, won the Holy Bull then came back two months later to win nicely in FL Derby. Great back to back figures. Probably Pletcher's best horse, has improved his figure each of last four races. Laid comfortably off the pace in FL Derby then came running, should be able to duplicate that effort. Very dangerous and will be a square price.
Vino Rosso - I like this guy to be picking off horses on the far turn and into the stretch. Wood Memorial effort was a solid improvement and Johnny V has decided to stick with him, which is big for finding a good trip. Last workout was very solid according to reports. Feels like he'll have the right mix of pace to run at, jockey to get the trip, trainer to get him cranked up, and closing kick to finish well. Maybe the lightest of the win choices but a great price for hitting the board.
Should be a great race!
