Just past halfway in the season... Lets discuss...

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
I figured here during the good ole days as we head up to the all-star break is a good time for a few to chime in with opinions on the first half of the season etc. Whatever you want to talk about... lets go...


I personally am going to give a quick thought on each team as of right now... some of these impressions may be spot on/some may be off but that is where we can learn from each other...


First, the East...


Boston has had their ups and downs. Obviously they had the big winning streak but have been kinda blah for a few weeks now. Something is up with Kyrie, just not sure. I am not talking about recently...but moreso for several weeks since his great start.

Toronto will be the biggest question going forward. Has Demar taken another step? Has this team really taken it to another level? They have played many more road than home so they might be able to overtake Boston in the 2nd half. The Raptors easily have the biggest differential in the East.

Philadelphia is about where they were forecasted. They are a .500 team that is growing before our eyes. They can be very fun to watch and maddening at other times. They are very sloppy. Simmons is extremely careless with the ball.

The Knicks are about where they should be. Unicorn is a star and they hopefully will continue to build around him. I really don't have many other thoughts here.

The Nets are gross. They are around a 30 win team. Nothing really to note here other than they have gotten swept in the division so far (0-8).

Miami is just solid. There really isn't a lot more to say about them. I honestly looked at their record the other day and was surprised by how many games they were over .500.

Washington continues to be that team that bugs me. I thought they would put things together this month and have a nice run. Nope, quite the opposite. Frankly, their games are tough to bet on at this point.

Charlotte is just a team stuck in mediocrity. They are terrible on the road but at the same point are much better against the West than the East.

Orlando and Atlanta are both brutal. The Hawks are to be expected. The Magic should be somewhat better but they need to play defense first. I really do not know what they are trying to build down there to be honest. They have nice parts, but do they mix well? This team might generate some line value later in season though.

Cleveland is Cleveland. They have no defense and they continue to be in the highest scoring games in the East. Don't waste money on this team. Wait and see who they pick up at deadline or at least let IT mesh some more before taking any more looks at them.

Indiana and Milwaukee are basically the same team so far this season for averages, record etc. Now, the Pacers should stay around where they are... a 40-44 win team. The Bucks really need a coaching change in my opinion. I still think if they play some defense they can get to be a very dangerous team come playoff time.

Detroit had a great start but since Reggie went down the team has started to collapse. Ever since the Spurs win the defense has started to look like last years group. I dunno why. Time for Stan to do 'something'. Some playoff team will prolly get Tobias real cheap and he will be a perfect fit for someone. There isn't much else to look forward to here to be honest. Ish Smith is a fine backup to play 16-24 minutes but once a game slows down in the 4th quarter he is much less effective. Oh well, another team kind of stuck drafting in that 12-15 spot again.

Chicago is one of my favorite teams. It sounds weird, but they have been a live betting machine or even pregame with Overs/TT's etc. They are such a different team when healthy but, alas, they also play no defense. They were such an under team to start the year and such an over squad now. The value is about gone on pre-game totals but one to watch in live betting still. Whoever gets Mritoc is getting a steal.


If I had to rank the East 1-8 as of today... not record-wise...but to seed them in a playoff format...


1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. Miami
4. Cleveland
5. Washington
6. Milwaukee
7. Indiana
8. Philadelphia


To the West...



Minnesota has gone back to reality a bit the past few games but that was expected. This team has grown during the season big-time. Remember when they couldn't stop anyone? Well, they have gotten much better at that. They are fun to watch and I would love to see them grow in the 2h of the season. They have crushed the division play so far (9-1).

Oklahoma City is another team that is about who we thought they were. Well, not every dumbass on the internet that thought this was the team to challenge Golden State. They started bad, real bad. It was a great fade at times. Then they started to gel and now they have leveled out I would say. They may win a series in the playoffs but they need the right match up. Their differential is pretty solid for a 25-20 team because of all the 4th quarter losses early in the year.

Portland is still Portland. They will win some games, lose some games and prolly sneak into playoffs. They are another team just kind of 'stuck'. Seriously, I would build around Dame and Nurk. Having both guards plus the black hole Evan Turner in the game at same time is ugly as can be unless they are all shooting great at the same point. I'd blow up the rest though and start with a foundation of an all-star and a very good Euro big man.

Denver was my high-risers this year. Well, they have been awful at way too many times. They still don't use guys correctly and Millsap injury doesn't help. They are awful on the road, just brutal. This is another team I wish would change coaches.

Utah has leveled off...went from awful to very hot back to mediocre. Mitchell is a delight to watch though. Rubio, um yeah. They, like Denver, are godawful on the road.

I was that guy that said CP and Jimmy needed the ball too much each to be effective. Now, we really need to see a 4-6 week period of these guys playing together to see what they are capable of but so far so good. Capela is the key to this team though. They have a great differential so far this year and play the usual high-scoring games. They still cannot beat GSW in a playoff series so get that out of your head. The last match ups with them will be crucial to see if Jimmy still has a complex when playing them.

The Spurs sit quietly at 30-16. That includes just two losses at home. I will not lie, I would have thought their record was more like 27-19 or so. They just do not seem like they are winning consistently but they are such a quiet team that just does their thing. It helps to have perhaps the greatest NBA coach of all-time at the helm.

The Pelicans are sitting above .500 now and they sure do get involved in some high-scoring games. AD, when healthy, is a top 5 player in the league. Man, I want to see 75 full games from this guy. He is dominant. They play no defense whatsoever. Obviously. If they do make the playoffs their will be money to be made in their games with regards to totals...

Memphis and Dallas are just 'blah'. There is not much to get excited about. Memphis averages under 100 ppg, I think that speaks volumes.

Golden State is just making their way through the season. It is about making a few statements, teasing a few teams and being healthy and ready to go by the playoffs. This may be the best Dubs team of them all to be honest. It is a mere formality until they are Champions again. If their are no significant injuries there is NO WAY this team loses a 7-game series. NONE. In my lifetime, there has never been a team that could go through the playoffs as easily as this team. They are that good, on both ends. This is historic. Enjoy it. (not crowning them best team of all-time whatsoever but with how this league is now, they are built to win it every year).

Doc should be coach of the year. The job he has done with this bunch through injuries is pretty amazing after the bad start. The 8-2 stretch has them above .500. They beat up on the division as well (sans GSW).

Phoenix is horrible. The thing is though, they will keep chucking it no matter what. They will let Booker get numbers so covers are never totally out of sight. Horrid differential though. Not a lot too get excited about...several years off but once they find the right pieces to keep around they could be real fun.

The Lakers are so bad they do not even get to have their own section. I'll save that for the NBA's best twitter team account...Sacramento ... The Kings have had some sneaky home games but overall are bad. Fox is getting better though slowly but surely. He'll be a favorite of mine for sure. The Lakers have pieces. They also will have a new coach next year and they have the giant distraction as well. But hey, this is what they signed up for...BBB



If I had to rank the West 1-8 as of today... not record-wise...but to seed them in a playoff format...

1. Golden State
2. Houston
3. San Antonio
4. Minnesota
5. Oklahoma City
6. LA Clippers
7-8 New Orleans/Portland/Denver

Sorry, cannot decide on the last two outta three. My personal hope is that Denver makes a leap in 2nd half and gets up near #5. We shall see.


Okay, what you seeing or want to discuss?
 
BAR, I am wondering if you would be willing to rate some of the worst/best teams as far as how they perform with a 15-point lead going on (let’s say at some point close the 3rd quarter break)? For instance which teams are most likely to slack off if they are that far ahead (Grizzlies? Trailblazers,?). And which teams will just keep pounding away when they are that far ahead (Spurs?). And which teams will pretty much give up when they are that far behind, and which teams will fight to the end to try to open up that back door?
 
Few quick things

Completely agree on Portland, plus they have Shabazz ready to replace much of what CJ is giving him. If they can move him for a quality wing who knows. Also it won't be with them but aminu is going to be an 7/8 guy on a finals team soon

Biggest thing with Toronto, and I think demar is legit, but Lowry had a mediocre first 20 and is just picking up now, so even if DD drops a bit I think Lowry has another level.

They are managing the minutes really well too with that depth. OG has been a huge add and his defense with Lowry allows them to rest DD.

Agree on the bucks, I don't see them firing Kidd. Between the likely 6-8 seeds they are the one that box, tor, cle want nothing to do with
 
BAR, I am wondering if you would be willing to rate some of the worst/best teams as far as how they perform with a 15-point lead going on (let’s say at some point close the 3rd quarter break)? For instance which teams are most likely to slack off if they are that far ahead (Grizzlies? Trailblazers,?). And which teams will just keep pounding away when they are that far ahead (Spurs?). And which teams will pretty much give up when they are that far behind, and which teams will fight to the end to try to open up that back door?

Let me think about that a bit more.

One thing to look at here is who has good benches for that change at end of third into the 4th. That can really change the complex of a 15 point game right there.
 
Few quick things

Completely agree on Portland, plus they have Shabazz ready to replace much of what CJ is giving him. If they can move him for a quality wing who knows. Also it won't be with them but aminu is going to be an 7/8 guy on a finals team soon

Biggest thing with Toronto, and I think demar is legit, but Lowry had a mediocre first 20 and is just picking up now, so even if DD drops a bit I think Lowry has another level.

They are managing the minutes really well too with that depth. OG has been a huge add and his defense with Lowry allows them to rest DD.

Agree on the bucks, I don't see them firing Kidd. Between the likely 6-8 seeds they are the one that box, tor, cle want nothing to do with

It will come down to 'Playoff Kyle Lowry' obviously. Depth is key, no doubt.

Here is an interesting thing regarding the Raptors...

They play tomorrow night at Minnesota and V-Day at Chicago. Those are the only two remaining games outside the eastern time zone. That is nuts. So, plenty of home games and very low travel. This team is in position to grab the number 1 seed.

So true on the Bucks, I hope.
 
Ya, I think internally they think he's gotten tired which is why the 4.5 mins less per game should keep him fresher
 
You talked about a lot of teams. It seems to me you could make a good living just fading Cleveland. If you have not that is just on you.
What is going on in the NBA is too varied and complex to really to break down. Anything I said would be wrong in some way. The issue is ability to improve.
I used to think Utah would be a team that might transform upward. Now I do not. The Suns----seem to have upward mobility. Perhaps bias by me but I doubt it.
Not too interested in sweeping statements.
Just trying to constantly slow myself down and see what is possible
 
On the list in the West the Spurs are the hardest to define. I think Pops made a major error and allowed them to grow too old. Not sure where they will be in 2 years.
I am more interested in OKC and the Clippers. Houston is another too complicated case for me to talk about
 
heading forward I am still for the most part on the Cavs fade train, though I do see a late season turn around it's not here yet.

I consider Boston to be in regression mode, and lines aren't quite reflecting it. Along the same lines the totals are not reflecting the slow pace and solid defense.

I keep waiting for the Nuggets to play good ball and it's just not happening.
 
You gotta like the Rockets "poking the bear" after last night's game. Wow. I'm all for self confidence but that's gonna bite them in the arse if they make it to the conference finals
 
I'm secretly hoping Houston gets HCA. Maybe we can get a fair price on a Warriors series that way.
 
I think it's been an interesting season so far. We see teams on the way down (Memphis, Dallas, Cleveland) and teams on the way up (Philly and Minny). For the first time in ages, it feels that LBJ in the NBA Finals is not a given and Celts/ Raps can actually produce a real rivalry.
Rookies are huge disappointment so far, though Simmons and Donovan are just amazing to watch and Kuzma seems to be a legit player. On the other hand, we see some few players like Dunn in Chicago and Dinwiddie in the Nets showing some promise all of a sudden.
Overall, maybe it's because I follow the league less, but after many seasons, where the league was divided to clear tiers, league suddenly got bulk of teams that can beat any other team on any given day. We seen Nets, Lakers, Bulls, Knicks and even Hawks go on some hot streaks. Only Kings are simply awful, much worse than I imagined and I'm probably not the only one.
 
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