June Bases

[mrpickem]

YTD [501-456 -1.6u] (8-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-10 -6.02U] (0-1 on 2u plays)

• 952 Miami Marlins +126
• 953 Atlanta Braves +100
• 953 Atlanta Braves/New York Mets Over 9½ -105
• 955 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 9½ -105
• 956 Cincinnati Reds -118
• 957 Pittsburgh Pirates +194
• 957 Pittsburgh Pirates/Milwaukee Brewers Over 9½ +105
• 959 Los Angeles Dodgers -144
• 959 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 12½ +100
• 961 Arizona Diamondbacks -130
• 965 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox Over 11½ +108
• 967 Cleveland Indians -159
• 967 Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 -105
• 969 Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9 -105
• 973 Minnesota Twins -154
• 973 Minnesota Twins/Chicago White Sox Over 10½ -103
• 975 Seattle Mariners +264
• 975 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Over 9½ +105
• 978 Los Angeles Angels -140

randoms...
View attachment 40411

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[mrpickem]

few more

• 965 New York Yankees -143
• 978 Los Angeles Angels -1½ +135
• 979 Washington Nationals/Detroit Tigers Over 11 -105

 

[mrpickem]

love spot with nats today..very close to 2u but playing both ML and RL

• 979 Washington Nationals -190
• 979 Washington Nationals -1½ -115

 

[mrpickem]

subpar night for model on Friday, but made a little on value plays as unexpected doggie braves won easily
all fade value today with kc, sea, pit

View attachment 40419

 

[mrpickem]

YTD [512-469 -4.26u] (8-3 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-13 -2.66u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

• 901 Philadelphia Phillies -123
• 904 Cincinnati Reds +110
• 906 Milwaukee Brewers -151
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -110
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers -156 (2U)
• 909 Arizona Diamondbacks -105
• 912 San Diego Padres -109
• 914 New York Mets -1½ +185
• 918 Baltimore Orioles +210
• 920 Toronto Blue Jays -129
• 921 Texas Rangers +178
• 923 Seattle Mariners +258
• 927 Oakland Athletics +120
• 929 Washington Nationals -1½ -185

also 8 overs

• 903 Chicago Cubs/Cincinnati Reds Over 10½ -105
• 905 Pittsburgh Pirates/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10½ +100
• 907 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 13½ -105
• 917 Cleveland Indians/Baltimore Orioles Over 10½ +105
• 919 Kansas City Royals/Toronto Blue Jays Over 9½ -105
• 923 Seattle Mariners/Houston Astros Over 9 -105
• 927 Oakland Athletics/Los Angeles Angels Over 10 -110
• 929 Washington Nationals/Detroit Tigers Over 9 +100

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[mrpickem]

View attachment 40448

Bet by number
So far this year certain totals have been very profitable
Bet under 8.5 for 156-104 60% or 15.9% ROI
Bet over 9, 10, 10.5, 11 for a combined 224-140 61.5% or 16% ROI
View attachment 40449

if you go back 3 years you still see this trend..it's just getting stronger each year

View attachment 40450

 

[mrpickem]

trends

RAYS @HOME ON RL 70-51 58% AVG LINE +110 FOR 20% ROI since 2018
TB 25-14 RL ON SUNDAY SINCE 2018 FOR +29% ROI
ATL 29-9 SU ON SUNDAY SINCE 2018 FOR 46% ROI
LAD 31-11 SU ON SUNDAY SINCE 2018 FOR 21% ROI
LAD @HOME 34-9 79% THIS YEAR FOR 24% ROI
MIL 20-10 SU IN DAY GAMES THIS YEAR FOR 23.8% ROI
CIN 11-24 SU IN DAY GAMES THIS YEAR- FADE FOR 25.8% ROI
SEA 22-6 OV IN DAY GAMES THIS YEAR FOR 50.8% ROI
NYY 20-9 OV IN DAY GAMES THIS YEAR FOR 28.2% ROI
NYY 26-9 OV IN AWAY GAMES THIS YEAR FOR 41.2% ROI
MIA 16-8 UN IN DAY GAMES THIS YEAR FOR 42.2% ROI
SEA 10-32 SU vs teams with winning record this year - fade for +25% ROI

 

[mrpickem]

There has never been a total set at 15 in SDQL database history(since 2004)
highest and only once 14.5 in wrigley 4/30/10 and it went over
5 times it was 14 and the over cashed 4 times

so wtf...I'll try today

adding

• 915 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 15 +105

 

[inZane]

It's the only logical choice...

Gl

 

[mrpickem]

last 33 games with total 12 or more
home team won 69% but not sure how much you can really call BOS home today
the over cashed 63.6% for 24.3% ROI

View attachment 40451

 

[mrpickem]

another tough day for model lowering ROI under 3%. value plays went 0-3

today the model has value with TOR, TEX, BAL, SEA


View attachment 40452

 

[degenerate007]

There has never been a total set at 15 in SDQL database history(since 2004)
highest and only once 14.5 in wrigley 4/30/10 and it went over
5 times it was 14 and the over cashed 4 times

so wtf...I'll try today

adding

• 915 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 15 +105

Nice you got it at plus money

 

[Gaius.T]

There has never been a total set at 15 in SDQL database history(since 2004)
highest and only once 14.5 in wrigley 4/30/10 and it went over
5 times it was 14 and the over cashed 4 times

so wtf...I'll try today

adding

• 915 New York Yankees/Boston Red Sox* Over 15 +105

Good luck mrpickem!
I even went over 17 @+185

I think the stadium plays as yesterday.