June Bases

YTD [434-395 +0.22u] (8-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [11-6 +5.33] (1-0 on 2u plays)

  • 902 Arizona Diamondbacks -151
  • 908 Chicago Cubs -125
  • 909 Cincinnati Reds +137
  • 914 Texas Rangers +122
  • 917 Los Angeles Angels -145
  • 919 Minnesota Twins -182
  • 921 Tampa Bay Rays -107
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this season if you bet all games with totals 9 or more OVER you would be 274-191-33 58.9% +67 units or 12.4% ROI
View attachment 40182

looking at it by day of week you can see Sunday and Thursday are the best days of the week so far
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On Thursday 66% of said games go over and return 26% ROI
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another trend you can see here is the favorites win 68% of these game and make 15% profit on both RL and SU...whice is only the 3rd best day of the week for favs in such situations
 
some more...
  • 902 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +120
  • 904 Washington Nationals -140
  • 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -155
  • 915 Houston Astros +125
  • 919 Minnesota Twins -1½ -115
 
Odorizzi is Minny ace and the weather will be warm in KC. Lots of the Twinky fly balls were caught on the warning track in Minnesota vs Boston. I expect to see a Twins win with Odorizzi pitching well and MInny hitting a few dongs along the way. KC is Trash.

  • 919 Minnesota Twins -1½ -115 (2U) one at each price...earlier and now
  • 919 Minnesota Twins -1½ -130
 
adding
  • 2914 CLE/TEX no score 1st inn* -105

Bieber allowed run in 1st inning: 4-14
Minor allowed run in 1st inning: 3-15

Both teams can rake but both these starter are 1st inn studs
 
YTD [439-404 -5.03u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [5-9 -5.25U] (0-1 on 2u plays)

ooch, that was some ass-hurt :holycow:
  • 952 Chicago Cubs -161
  • 953 Miami Marlins +200
  • 956 Washington Nationals -138
  • 958 Pittsburgh Pirates -110
  • 960 Milwaukee Brewers -124
  • 966 New York Yankees -144
  • 967 Toronto Blue Jays +330
  • 970 Cleveland Indians -164
  • 972 Texas Rangers -135
  • 979 Los Angeles Angels -105
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YTD [448-414 -7.01u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [3-5 -2.83U] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 951 Miami Marlins +157
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -1½ +125
  • 957 Cincinnati Reds +165
  • 960 Chicago Cubs +103
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +105
  • 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +135
  • 964 Arizona Diamondbacks -138
  • 966 Boston Red Sox -1½ +120
  • 966 Boston Red Sox -158
  • 968 Cleveland Indians -1½ -105
  • 968 Cleveland Indians -193
  • 970 New York Yankees +114
  • 971 Minnesota Twins -1½ -105
  • 977 Baltimore Orioles/Seattle Mariners Over 9 -110

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1me47MO.jpg
 
SEA over run this year is truly epic. Not only are they going over 72.4% and returning 36.7% ROI they are bashing the totals by an average over 2 RPG

View attachment 40241

I know they are due for regression but my motto has always been "Dont stand in front of the train"
 
YTD [455-421 -7.26u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-7 -0.25U] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 904 Chicago Cubs -125
  • 905 Los Angeles Dodgers -130
  • 907 Colorado Rockies -1½ +130
  • 909 Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 10½ -115
  • 910 New York Yankees -1½ -125
  • 911 Chicago White Sox/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -110
  • 913 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 10 -105
  • 914 Cleveland Indians -158

View attachment 40255
 
Here's 5 trends I been following and playing to a certain extent with results from season, month and week.

The overs on all games with totals 9 or more are the one I been playing a little over a week for fun. Just throwing 20 at each and I'm up near 4 bells, This has been a season of overs, so if the book lines the game less than 9 there is a real chance for the under, otherwise they haven't adjusted totals up high enough yet...but they will

FAVS W/TOT >=9 http://bit.ly/2XnB5wf
(-175<LINE<-125) http://bit.ly/2Xs6JbT
SEA OVER
http://bit.ly/2XAfT5Y

Well page wont keep formatting so here's a picture of my sheet..links above

View attachment 40260

The (-175<=LINE<-125) means favorites over 125 but less than 175
 
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Based on your model the Yanks wins 2/3 of the time....but CC old and fat...game says over to me

Seen a lot of love for Boston over today....feels under with these two guys going....Giolitoballs been really good although roughed up by Yanks last time out and Erod era deceivingly high, he can pitch....probable pass for me

Love your stuff Pickem
 
Based on your model the Yanks wins 2/3 of the time....but CC old and fat...game says over to me

Seen a lot of love for Boston over today....feels under with these two guys going....Giolitoballs been really good although roughed up by Yanks last time out and Erod era deceivingly high, he can pitch....probable pass for me

Love your stuff Pickem

Yes I love the over in NY as well as NY -1' Like Tuck has pointed out CC is a different pitcher at home this year and last for that matter...Yank bat are so good they should be illegal

Not feeling chisox today, boston coming around and better than they've shown..e rod just wins and sox bats superior...not a lot of value at 170 but I do think BOS prevails
 
YTD [462-425 -5.15u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-4 -2.11U] (0-0 on 2u plays)


  • 951 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10 -110
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -149
  • 953 Washington Nationals -1½ -110
  • 956 Chicago Cubs +100
  • 963 Kansas City Royals/Cleveland Indians Over 9½ +105
  • 964 Cleveland Indians -1½ -115
  • 967 Texas Rangers -132
  • 967 Texas Rangers/Detroit Tigers Over 9½ +100
  • 969 Tampa Bay Rays/Minnesota Twins Over 9 -105
  • 970 Minnesota Twins +105
  • 973 Seattle Mariners/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10 -105
  • 974 Milwaukee Brewers -165
  • 976 Houston Astros -1½ -120
  • 978 St. Louis Cardinals -127
  • 979 Cincinnati Reds +144
View attachment 40299
Brownies anyone??
 
In the history of the SDQL database(16+ years) the M's are having the best "OVER" first half of the season. AN amazing 65% higher profit than 2nd best!!!!
PIT is having the 11th highest "OVER" 1st half as well
View attachment 40317


Also over 16 years we are now witnessing the 3rd best team home record before the break: DOYERS
TEX has the 10th most profitable home record before break..with some time left

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The crystal ball:

Seeing a rainy North Side of Chicago tonight, when the Cubs play game 2 of series vs NL East-leading Bravos. Last night, Chicago used a monster 5th inning to catapult them to an 8-3 win.

Lefty Max Fried (8-3, 4.03 ERA) goes for Atlanta, and he'll make his 2nd start of the year vs the Cubs. On April 4th, he was dominant, allowing just a single hit in 6 innings of work for his first win of the year. He's struggled in June, but rebounded nicely with a 6IP, 2ER performance in his most recent outing against the Mets, his 8th win this year. He'faces a Cubs lineup that has been slightly worse against LHP in 2019.

The major storyline in the other dugout is starter Adbert Alzolay (1-0, 2.25 ERA), making his first career start for Joe Maddon, and only his second-ever major league appearance. He lived up to his high prospect billing on 6/20, entering in relief of Tyler Chatwood and allowing just a solo HR over 4+ innings. It remains to be seen how the right-hander will fare in his first career start against the high-octane Atlanta offense, but Alzolay showed last Thursday that he's more than ready for the big stage of Wrigley Field, and he should have a raucous crowd behind him tonight.

With scattered T-storms in the forecast, these powerful offenses might have a little trouble generating runs, especially in a starting pitching matchup that has potential to be a good one. The crystal ball notes that the first five inning line of 7 total runs is slightly inflated for a game with a full total of 12, and the spirits have a little more faith in Fried and Alzolay to find early success.

Also worth a look
  1. TB/MIN Rays are only -105 with their "ace" taking tha mound today in Blake Snell? Snell hasn't been in his early season form as of late. Twins have a potent offense. Something seems really fishy about this line if you ask me. Considering making multi-unitplay on tha Twins ML .
  2. SD/BAL OVER @ 10.5 runs. Padres starting a no-name pitcher in Logan Allen. I'm from San Diego n' admittedly don't have much info on the guy. I think he can give up some runs against an O's offense who I'm sure can score at times against a not so experienced pitcher. Jimmy Yacabonis is a mediocre pitcher at best if you ask me n' tha Padres can score in bunches at times when they get hot n' hit the ball out of the yard. Considering throwing another $1,150 to win $1k on this OVER myself so far.
  3. 12 plays ties for 3rd :popcorn:

 
Model 6-1 with no value plays
Value today with COL, MIA, PIT
COL value may be skewed with huge ?? on starter. MIA and PIT simple getting too much chalk. 7 or 15 favs are priced about 7% or more higher than model


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final update done
 
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adds

  • 955 Atlanta Braves/Chicago Cubs 1st 5 Innings Under 6½ +110
  • 959 Colorado Rockies +145
  • 971 San Diego Padres/Baltimore Orioles Over 10½ -110
  • 975 Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros Over 9 +100


4Ev4dPs.gif
 
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one more...
  • 977 Oakland Athletics/St. Louis Cardinals 1st 5 Innings Over 4½ -125

There is a lot of chatter about how impressive Bassitt and Flaherty were their last time out and how they are hitting their summer strides! But those outings were against losing teams in the BAL and MIA that are bottom 5 in OPS. Step back a bit and look at the offenses they face today and we see a different story unfold for pitchers that have given up a combined 19 runs over their last 3 starts. Riding this over
 
YTD [474-433 -2.26u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [12-8 +2.89U] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 903 Colorado Rockies -1½ +130
  • 903 Colorado Rockies -136
  • 905 New York Mets +130
  • 905 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Over 10½ -115
  • 907 Washington Nationals -1½ +120
  • 907 Washington Nationals -144
  • 910 Chicago Cubs -119
  • 911 Chicago White Sox/Boston Red Sox Over 9 -110
  • 913 Toronto Blue Jays/New York Yankees Over 10 +100
  • 914 New York Yankees -1½ -135
  • 916 Cleveland Indians -1½ -105
  • 916 Cleveland Indians -198
  • 917 Texas Rangers +104
  • 920 Minnesota Twins -105
  • 921 San Diego Padres -1½ +115
  • 921 San Diego Padres -125
  • 921 San Diego Padres/Baltimore Orioles Over 10 -105

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jRuTG84.jpg
 
adds
  • 924 St. Louis Cardinals -140
  • 925 Cincinnati Reds +106
  • 925 Cincinnati Reds/Los Angeles Angels Over 9½ -105
  • 927 Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros Over 9½ -107
 
adds...

  • 929 Seattle Mariners +185
  • 929 Seattle Mariners/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10 -108

Side note, I have about .4 BTC at Coinbase I use for funding/collecting from books. Had not looked at it in awhile and seen BTC prices today, so I had to look. My cash was up 50% in a month...but that was earlier today as BTC hit 13.6K but has now fell back to 12.3K.

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YTD [489-441 +3.41u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [15-8 +5.67U] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 951 New York Mets/Philadelphia Phillies Over 9½ +100
  • 952 Philadelphia Phillies -124
  • 956 Miami Marlins +185
  • 957 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -130
  • 957 Los Angeles Dodgers/Colorado Rockies Over 11½ -105
  • 959 Arizona Diamondbacks -102
  • 961 Texas Rangers -113 vs
  • 961 Texas Rangers/Detroit Tigers Over 9½ -105
  • 966 Los Angeles Angels -150
  • 967 Seattle Mariners/Milwaukee Brewers Over 10 -110
  • 969 Pittsburgh Pirates/Houston Astros Over 9½ -105
  • 970 Houston Astros -192
randoms...
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about these overs...

All below conversation only applies to games with totals of 9 or more

I been hitting most all overs that are lined 9 or more and it has really been a cash cow. Even though they haven't been good the last 3 days over which I broke about even on them. Love it when your system goes south and breaks even. I really find it hard to believe this can last long, but I will ride the fuck out of it white I can.

of note...day games over 61% and night games 56.8% this season
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when broken down by day of week and day/night only Friday showed a very small loss and THUR day games were most profitable action (42% ROI)
View attachment 40377
Sunday day games made more units but had 3x the games. Of note..all 5 Sunday night games have went over.

Last 2 weeks
View attachment 40378

Notice the avg total 9.7 and avg RPG was 11.29 :clapping2:

Here's last 30 days by date
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You can see of 10 losing days 2 were less than .4u and only 2 over 3u losses, while there were 7 winners over 3u (highlighted)
If u count under half unit as push the days record was 19-8-1 with 139-101-16 58% +10.2% ROI
View attachment 40381
 
YTD [496-446 +4.42u] (8-2 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [7-5 +1.01U] (0-0 on 2u plays)

  • 902 Cincinnati Reds +104
  • 903 Atlanta Braves +115
  • 906 Miami Marlins +129
  • 908 Milwaukee Brewers -140
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -120
  • 909 Los Angeles Dodgers -186
  • 912 San Diego Padres -117
  • 913 Arizona Diamondbacks -104
  • 915 Cleveland Indians -1½ +100
  • 915 Cleveland Indians -168 (2U)
  • 917 Kansas City Royals +108
  • 927 Washington Nationals -154

randoms...

BAL 1-9 @home in June this year and 2-22 since last year
CLE 29-14 in first away game after home game over last 4 years
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