June Bases

total dropped to 10 so I added another unit making 2u
  • 961 Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -110
 
fwiw, here is 4 different power rankings I scrape and the last column is all 4 averaged
they vary quite a bit
3RD ONE IS ODDSHARK AND I'M ABOUT TO KICK THEM, HOW THEY RATE FISH SO HIGH IS BEYOND ME(12TH OVERALL)
View attachment 40048
 
mrpickem said:
total dropped to 10 so I added another unit making 2u
  • 961 Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins Over 10 -110
Click to expand...

Nice move. I bet the Twins and the over 10* to start, and then live bet when Seattle tied it up in the top of the 6th. I added Minn -1* -142, and over 7 -115.

It was a fun game, and a nice start to the day for a change. Good luck on the rest of your card...

:cheers3:
 
mrpickem said:
more
  • 951 Pittsburgh Pirates/Atlanta Braves Under 9½ -105
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +115
  • 961 Seattle Mariners/Minnesota Twins Over 10½ +100
  • 963 Toronto Blue Jays -1½ +115
  • 966 Boston Red Sox -1½ -110
  • 971 New York Yankees -1½ -115
M's 21-4-3 over total after a win this year
M's 19-4 over total in day games this year
M's 48-19-3 over total all games this year
M's 25-9-1 over total in road games this year
Kikuchi 13-1 over total in all starts

Still awaiting lines on these 2:
Rox over at home when temp over 75 in June has cashed over 60% last 6.5 years
View attachment 40024
TB 16-4 on RL at home in June games since last year
View attachment 40025
Click to expand...
Solid find on the M's total. Want to let you know you're thread is a daily visit for me. Love the nuggets and sdql you share. Thanks and continued luck!
 
YTD [378-350 -4.7u] (6-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-7 +2.17u] (1-0 on 2u play)
  • 902 Washington Nationals -163
  • 903 St. Louis Cardinals +118
  • 906 Miami Marlins -113
  • 912 Los Angeles Dodgers -122
  • 913 Milwaukee Brewers -140
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays -161
  • 919 Cleveland Indians -137
  • 923 New York Yankees -103
  • 928 Oakland Athletics -163
View attachment 40062
View attachment 40063



:campfire:
 
Last edited:
a few more
  • 907 Philadelphia Phillies +125
  • 919 Cleveland Indians -150
  • 922 Minnesota Twins -1½ -105
  • 925 Toronto Blue Jays +253
  • 927 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 9 -115
  • 928 Oakland Athletics -1½ +115
 
Points to ponder...

Miami is 29th in OPS vs LHP and at Home, 5 is alot of runs.

LAD is 2nd in OPS vs RHP and at Home. Hendricks is better at Wrigley and during the day. Cubs bullpen isnt the worst but isn't the best. 5 runs seems good at +115

NYY are going against Giolito, he's been the best pitcher on earth (Him or Ryu) over the past month and opposing teams haven't scored 5 in all his starts since April 12th @ Yankee Stadium. NY is good but not at full strength. 5 is alot in my opinion

OAK is 3rd in OPS vs LHP and M.Gonzalez has been ASS lately, add to that their bullpen has been worse lately.

Nats have a horrible bullpen but if it's strictly Scherzer vs Ray I'll take Scherzer. Washington kills lefties 2nd in OBP and 5th in OPS vs LHP and Arizona is 18th in OPS vs RHP, Scherzer isn't your average RHP but...

TB ML is all about Snell in TB. He's been incredible since last year at the Trop and the Angels have played well but I don't see them doing much tonight.

. KC is a bad team and I really can't see them pulling it out.

Houston -1.5 -150
  • Straight forward, better team all around with Cole pitching at home and added a new young bat in Yordan.
  • Aaron Sanchez has a 4.62 road ERA
  • Cole has been in decent form giving up 3ER in his last 13 IP
  • Houston is 6th in OPS vs RHP
  • Houston is 25-10 at home
Twins TT o5.5 -125 10u - lol maybe not but it almost feels like a lock
  • Twinks are the best team in baseball right now and it's Prince night at Target
  • Twinks have hit o5.5 in 7/10 games
  • Twinks first in OPS vs RHP
  • Wind blowing out to right 11mp
 
also the beermakers are hard to ignore at -160
Davies has a 1.88 road ERA
Pomeranz is coming off a decent start, but before that has given up 8,5,2,7 ER in his last 4 and has a 7.16 ERA
SF 28th in OPS vs RHP
MIL 6th in OPS vs LHP
Gints have strong pens and have been winning alot but not likely tonight
 
Houston was playing after a day off 8-0, on Friday 8-2 and after a loss I made a very large bet but only bet half the bet minus 2.5
 
YTD [386-357 -5.25u] (6-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [8-7 -0.55u] (0-0 on 2u plays)

I did inadvertently bet 2u on CLE, but it was because I didn't see where I bet it early and just bet again. Not actually a 2u play although it helped my bottom line. ;)
  • 952 San Francisco Giants -102
  • 956 Miami Marlins -127
  • 958 New York Mets -135
  • 960 Atlanta Braves +102
  • 962 Colorado Rockies -162
  • 966 Tampa Bay Rays -177
  • 970 Houston Astros -214 (2u)
  • 980 Cincinnati Reds -117
View attachment 40084

​
 
some more
  • 954 Washington Nationals -1½ +105
  • 958 New York Mets -1½ +140
  • 960 Atlanta Braves -1½ +190
  • 962 Colorado Rockies -1½ +115
  • 964 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ +110
  • 966 Tampa Bay Rays -1½ +100
  • 967 Boston Red Sox -1½ -175
  • 970 Houston Astros -1½ -120
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ -130
Do I need to mention that I really like Mets and Astros today!​
​
View attachment 40085 View attachment 40086 View attachment 40087
 
Doyers are 22-3 at home L25
M's a ridiculous 50-19 over total this year
M's 7-28 vs teams with winning record this year link
All totals of 9 are more are going over 58.2% this year 253-182 +11.2% ROI link
 
YTD [394-366 -7.63u] (7-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [8-9 -2.38u] (1-0 on 2u plays)
The RL plays bit me yesterday, esp with braves giving it up in 9th. Did at least hit another 2u play to help keep the day reasonable.
  • 902 New York Mets +112
  • 904 Miami Marlins +114
  • 910 Colorado Rockies -139
  • 914 Los Angeles Dodgers -160
  • 915 Boston Red Sox -157
  • 919 Cleveland Indians -147
  • 924 Chicago White Sox +213
  • 926 Houston Astros* -202
  • 928 Oakland Athletics -126
  • 930 Cincinnati Reds -168
View attachment 40097
View attachment 40098

​
 
just BS'ing
  1. Over 8 PIT/MIA - Archer giving up runs away from home. Pirates also have the bats to get some on Alcantara.
  2. Over 8' MIL/SF - Lol @ Brewers but they alway put runs up, SF gets a few against Anderson and the mid-game relievers before Hader comes out.
  3. Over 9 KC/MIN - Perez hittable, Twins gonna score on Junis without doubt
  4. Over 9' NYY/CHW - both pitchers hittable but this one likely comes down to NY bats. They’ve been good for the over statistically this season.
  5. Over 9' SEA/OAK - M's an over machine this year 51-19 and 20-4 in day games plus 28-9 on road $$$
Danger Games:
  1. Rangers @ Reds - Fishy line for a fishy game. Rangers have the firepower to offset Gray, but Gray has been very good and very consistent. Similarly, Jurado is solid but far more unlikely he gets smashed by Reds. Suggests this fight for the W goes to the bullpens and thats hard to call. Avoid.
  2. Cardinals @ Mets - Vargas been much better recently but so has Hudson (to a lesser degree). The way these teams have split the game, there is no certain outcome here, wouldn’t be surprised if it’s a one-run winner and could be either over or under. Tread lightly.

I know I played both these avoid games, but thats what I do for the most part is just play the numbers/trends.
 
a few more
  • 908 Washington Nationals -145
  • 918 Tampa Bay Rays -150
  • 909 San Diego Padres/Colorado Rockies Over 13 +100
  • 911 Milwaukee Brewers -1½ +115
  • 913 Chicago Cubs/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 8 -110
  • 915 Boston Red Sox -1½ +100
  • 923 New York Yankees -1½ -130
  • 926 Houston Astros -1½ -115
  • 927 Seattle Mariners/Oakland Athletics Over 9½ -110
Still have interest in bravos and that'll doit
 
I forgot to post model yesterday, but it was 9-6 with a small loss overall due to big chalk.
Here's today's picks with results from last 2 days
Value today on FISH & O's

View attachment 40108

Note, I had to edit this as orinally my system was picking up the wrong Johnson in BOS and wrong Anderson in OAK :arguing2:
 
Last edited:
Today’s ramblings.
  1. ATL - Soroka back on the mound, with a poor showing last game against the Pirates. I think he can right the ship here especially against an inconsistent Mets and a Braves offense that seems to go off every game.
  2. CLE/TEX Over 9' - Would love to take Rangers ML but potential for someone to blow it late. Lynn also the type of pitcher to be hit in bunches and Indians have been doing exactly that this season, when their offense does click it’s results in multiple run innings. Also, Clevinger coming back after two months, likely to be rusty, which is not how you wanna be vs explosive Rangers sticks.
  3. SEA - The Royos haven’t won back to back wins since May 1st against Tampa, I’m gonna say no. Even better, that was the Royals at home; can do they win back to back on the road? Doubt it.. There’s a lot to not like about Duffy and his numbers, especially compared against a solid if unremarkable pitcher in Milone. I think M's get the win tonight, with the single concern being the loss of Encarnacion; it didn’t hurt last night and hopefully not tonight.
Value Picks:
  1. Astros - The obvios one! Miley not as bad as he’s being referred to, recenct bias coming into play with HOU losing some close games. HOU is 15-8 after a loss and Reds are 10-20 after a win. Plus I can’t refuse +110 on Astros. I know, it’s Castillo but this problem with Reds always exists; can their bats take advantage of a decent pitcher when the chance arises or will the opposition take advantage of limited chances they find against Castillo? I’ll take my chances with the Astros.
  2. Marlins - Call me crazy. But Hernandez had a decent showing last time out, which was against the Cards, giving up 3 runs in 5.3 innings. Mikolas has been awful and his last game, also vs Marlins, he gave up 5 runs in 5 innings, putting a lot of pressure on SL’s already inconsistent offense. Tomorrow, Yamamoto plays vs Flaherty and I think it’s a great time for Yamamoto to show his inexperience and Cards likely a strong play. At -200, I’m not taking Cards with Mikolas on the mound; Fish have been showing a solid if unremarkable offense recently and I think the combination of Hernandez’s pitching offesting the Cards offense and Mikolas throwing meatballs leads to a Marlins win. Worthy bet at +180 even if MIA has cost me the last 2 days
Risky Games:
  1. PHI/WAS - Arrietta's been below average, Corbin currently struggling. Nats offense great but always a risky bullpen, all signs point to an unpredictable game so I’ll sit this one out.
  2. Red Sox @ Twins - Pretty obvious why you should avoid. Unpredictability all around; if I had to lean, I’d say Twins at home but Sox have shown life as of late.
 
Totals went over 36-17 67.9% over the weekend(Thur-Sun) and totals league wide keep going higher as bookies try to ease their pain with everyone hammering the over's. The average total is highest ever now at 9.2 over last week and 9.1 this month. Last year it was 8.6 for whole year.

one weeks work of action was hella profits for over players
View attachment 40125
 
adds
  • 962 New York Yankees -128
  • 963 Los Angeles Angels -159
  • 972 Seattle Mariners -117
  • 960 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -120
  • 970 Oakland Athletics -1½ -110
 
maybe I'm missing something here, but new scrub starter for M's definite downgrade and total goes down???

  • 971 Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners Over 8½ -105
reds are my weakness along with a -200 home favorite ;)

GEfJpKV.jpg
 
YTD [414-378 -4.17u] (7-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-4-1 +2.74] (0-0 on 2u plays)
  • 904 Atlanta Braves +111
  • 905 Miami Marlins +204
  • 905 Miami Marlins/St. Louis Cardinals Under 8 +100
  • 908 Arizona Diamondbacks -133
  • 909 San Francisco Giants/Los Angeles Dodgers Under 7½ +100
  • 910 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -110
  • 915 Los Angeles Angels -113
  • 918 Texas Rangers +115
  • 922 Oakland Athletics -217
  • 923 Kansas City Royals +115
  • 923 Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners Over 9 -105
  • 926 Pittsburgh Pirates -149
  • 927 Houston Astros -1½ +100
  • 927 Houston Astros -158

Randoms~
View attachment 40142
View attachment 40143

https://www.reddit.com/r/kateupton/comments/c1w74z

https://www.reddit.com/r/WatchItForThePlot/comments/4ycsr6
 
Matt Carpenter with a bunt double.
https://streamable.com/ojzzd
My question is why dont more people do this, it may break up these bullshit shifts

Top Ten
1Dodgers I like Corey Seager. When he plays and is good, I think “yes.” When he is hurt, I think “no.” (If anyone knows the origin of that pasta I would love to see it). All in all a meddling week for the Dodgers, who seriously need to address the bullpen. One Brad Hand, please. 7 home games against El Gigantes and El... uhhh... Rockies this week
2Astros . Highlight of the week has been Air Yordan's inability to do anything other than hit home runs. It was heartwarming to see Lil Biggio make his MMP debut as a member of the Blue Jays. We have the Reds and Yankees this week, which should be some exciting baseball!
3Twins Another week ends with the best record in the majors, but the real high point of this week was Mauer's #7 being retired. Baseball is fun again in Minnesota!
4Yankees Acquiring Encarnacion is an interesting choice, as he bumps Frazier to AAA and shares a clogged DH duty with Voit, and when they come back, Judge and Stanton until they get to full speed. And Morales, when he comes off the IL, too. This is starting to look like the Yankees teams of the 90s/00s, all-bat big hitters, just squint and hope they don't hit it to 1B and LF. I loved those teams.
5Rays This week's edition of The Flappy Times is dedicated to Brandon Lowe and why he should be ALROTY. He OPS'd a cool 1.215 last week to the tune of a 220 wRC+ (.910 & 142 on season). This flappy boi is one to watch if you're not already. Dispite Lowe's efforts (and those of Pham, Dandy Yandy, and the ever-loveable Choi Boi), western teams starting with A proved difficult last week. This week isn't much different with the start of a road trip @ the Janks. I think every living being can agree a sweep would be nice to start this week.
6Cubs The Cubs lost two series in a row on the west coast this week. Hendricks going to the IL is a setback, though it means we might see an Adbert Alzolay debut! Alzolay is one of the few promising prospects left in the Cubs organization. To Kris Bryant's surprise, the Cubs play the White Sox next. After that it's the Mets. It's an easier schedule over the next month or so; they hope to take advantage.
7Braves The Braves offense is on full tilt right now, having scored at least 6 runs in eight straight games, culminating with a 15-1 beatdown of the Phillies to clinch the series victory in Atlanta. Every starting position player for the Braves, including both catchers, have at least a wRC+ of 100. Now, we await the arrival of Dallas Keuchel.
8Red Sox It's nice to sweep the O's after splitting with the Rangers and Rays. It's not nice how badly the Twins are going to slap this team around. Red Sox baseball--destroy bad teams, struggle against any team at or above mediocrity. This team needs consistent play.
9Brewers Josh Hader is continuing to be a fastball pitcher (90%) and striking out 53.5% of opposing batters while doing so. Christian Yelich has been eating his Wheaties as evidenced by hitting a ball through the fence.
10D-Backs The D-backs had a good week, taking 2 of 3 in Philly before splitting a 4-game series with the Nationals in DC. Starting Archie Bradley weirdly didn't result in much success. Ketel Marte is on fire, and should be an All-Star,
11Phillies This week could have swung in many ways but the team lost back to back series including a crushing division loss to the red hot Braves. This team is going to go as far as their pitching, and right now their bullpen is still banged up, their two front of the rotation arms have not been reliable and they don't have a fifth starter. With the games leading up to the all-star break now only against the division, this team must show whether they’re in “win-now” mode and play up to expectations to justify a trade deadline move.
 
Totals are hard to explain at times. All the overs this year but the yesterday the under cashes 8 of 11

On the year if you take games with totals below 9 and games with 9 or more, you see:

View attachment 40144

The totals of 9 or more go over 58.8% of the time for 12.2% ROI

View attachment 40145
..also of note on these higher totals, the favorite wins 66.3% and ROI is a stout 11.8%

When then the total is less than 9 we see much different results; Games only over 44.4% of the time and the under actually returns 6.7% ROI
View attachment 40146
...not nearly leaning favorite's way when totals are lower either
 
In their last 4 games the Rox have scored 48 runs on 67 hits with batting over .400 :baseballfire:

BS'in
  1. Astros - I burnt money on them yesterday so I am going for another sucker Astros line. Anything under -200 seems like a bargain for Verlander, I’m smashing. JV starts where Astros have gone on to lose; Rangers, Twins, Red Sox, Brewers. Those are prime examples of good offense; Reds are lackluster, barely escaping with the W last night. With Verlander keeping them down to a max of 2 runs, I think Astros should cah(fingers crossed).
  2. Angels - Skaggs can be a really messy pitcher but so can Stroman. Stro got a win last time out correcting his form against a flailing O's team. I think he’s a little too wild for Angels’ bats to not take advantage. Give me this low juice and LA
  3. Rox OV 10 - Senzatela vs Kelly. WHIP 1.62 vs 1.27, ERA 5.48 vs 3.73. Both teams have decent offenses(Rox been enfuego!) and matching up the weaker pitchers against each other suggests lots of scoring. If this was at Coors field, prolly get 12, but at Chase Field, we looking at hot weather that has discounted the line to 10 runs. I think it hits pretty easily, maybe first 7 innings.
  4. Doyers - Kershaw loves a revenge game. He’s also at home. Anderson doesn’t give up a whole lot but I think Dodgers can wear him out and get to the bullpen early.
  5. TB/NYY OV 9.5 - Signs point to plenty of runs scored. Yanks love the over, and with Happ on mound vs Stanek/Beeks and company, I think runs will be scored today.
Danger games
  1. CHW/Cubs - Line too big to back Hamels. White Sox too inconsistent to back them.
  2. TEX/CLE - unsure how the offense reacts to each pitcher, close game that could swing either way...took +money anyhoo :D
 
Decent day modelling yesterday

5 VALUE PLAYS TODAY: ATL, SD, CIN, TB, MIA

Not that I necessarily agree, but it is what the model spit out. Yesterday I bucked the model and plays tribe and stros and we know how that went. :moneyoutofhand:
...even so, not sure I can back fish and cincy

View attachment 40148
 
tuck321 said:
Happ on best rest with best Catcher and a under ump
Click to expand...

I hear you Tuck, was thinking over but layed off. Cant lay 165 with Happ vs TB, if I lose I lose

adding
  • 902 Washington Nationals -163
  • 912 San Diego Padres +159
  • 913 Tampa Bay Rays +157
  • 920 Minnesota Twins +112
  • 930 Chicago Cubs -215
  • 907 Colorado Rockies/Arizona Diamondbacks Over 10 +100
  • 908 Arizona Diamondbacks -1½ +125
  • 922 Oakland Athletics -1½ -110
 
Probably laying 1.5 with Kelly, He got his best catcher 4 games 1.98 ERA
Played Padre pitcher first 5
 
YTD [423-389 -5.11u] (7-1 on 2u plays)
Yesterday [9-11-2 -0.94] (0-0 on 2u plays)

22 PLAYS ON A TUESDAY, LOL. AT LEAST I HAD SEVERAL LIVE DOGS CASH TO KEEP LOSSES UNDER A UNIT..

Wednesday:
  • 951 Milwaukee Brewers -102
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -145
  • 958 St. Louis Cardinals -157
  • 960 Arizona Diamondbacks -137
  • 963 Tampa Bay Rays -117
  • 968 Seattle Mariners -121
  • 969 Los Angeles Angels -145 (2U)
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -106
  • 976 Cincinnati Reds +158
  • 980 Chicago Cubs -147
randoms...
View attachment 40157
View attachment 40158
View attachment 40160

 
The favorites are all getting priced higher lately. They have been winning alot this year so the book is compensating with adjusted pricing

Favs of 115 or more on the year winning 66% for +7.5% ROI
View attachment 40161

Since Friday the win % about the same but ROI down 45%
View attachment 40162

...and today is the highest pricing I have noticed for the favorites. I really can't see one spot with value on the favorite. That don't mean I wont play them, just saying you are paying a helluva price.. comeon REDS +175 @ home, giolito +145 ???
 
adds
  • 982 Washington Nationals -150 Game 1
  • 956 Atlanta Braves -1½ +135
  • 962 Los Angeles Dodgers -1½ -115
  • 967 Kansas City Royals/Seattle Mariners Over 9 +100
  • 968 Seattle Mariners -1½ +165
  • 974 Minnesota Twins -1½ +165
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

B.A.R.
2024 MLB Futures and Season Long Props Discussion
Replies
16
Views
670
MikeU
M
mrpickem
JUNE BASES ~ ⚾
2
Replies
70
Views
2K
mrpickem
mrpickem
mrpickem
JUNE BASES
2
Replies
50
Views
3K
mrpickem
mrpickem
VirginiaCavs
Friday Discussion Thread
2
Replies
50
Views
398
peelpub94
peelpub94
B.A.R.
2024 MLB RSW Discussion
2
Replies
63
Views
2K
2daBank
2daBank
Back
Top