Jan. 24th. 09.

[JPicks]

Well I think the writeups are going to have to make a permanent return. Went and looked at my MLK thread where I wrote up the first 3 games of the day and went 3-0 and then proceeded to fuck around and go 0-7 the rest of day. Add that to a 6-1 yesterday with w/ups on all the games and I'm convinced. No I'm not going to hit 90% if I do w/ups but the fact of the matter is that I was getting LAZY and w/ups force me to take a good long look at every game. You bastards are likely to call me out for something that I put in there that's completely full of shit. So on to Saturday.

Cavs/Jazz

Hopped on the Jazz -1 when it came out and at this moment I feel quite happy about it. Cavs are currently in a dog fight in the Bay while the line has quickly moved to -2 and I won't be surprised by a 3.5 come game time. With any luck the Cavs will hold off the Warriors tonight and feel happy about going home 2-2 on the roadie. Doubt they'll be happy necessarily but something they can live with. This team isn't nearly the road team that Orlando is. They certainly aren't a bad road team, but with out Big Z and West asking them to win a b2b on the road against a pretty good WC team is a tall task imo. Really don't have a ton to talk about this one other than I'll pretty much take the Jazz at less than a point favorite at home on ANY team playing the 2nd game of a b2b. A bit to much respect for the Cavs with that line.

And the Cavs just pulled off the last second win. 1st quarter play on the Cavs off of that is probably warranted. Jazz pull off the game win though.

I'll w/up the card in the morning. :cheers:

 

[Killa]

Helluva buzzer beater by King James. Wow!

 

[Worm1120]

Lets do this :cheers:

 

[SF_capper]

GL 2m

 

[lungster]

hopped on it at 2.5. maybe i should've waited for ml

 

[JPicks]

Knicks/Sixers

Elton Brand returns after missing 6 weeks for the Sixers today. He'll come off the bench and probaby get about 12-15 minutes today. From reading the Philly papers it seems that the 2nd unit (Brand included) scrimmaged the 1st unit over their 4 day break and the 2nd unit won. Just a good sign that he's fitting in with the 2nd unit for than anything else. Very wary of laying any points with the Sixers in this one when they have Brand coming back and are also on 4 days rest. 2 big red flags imo.

Knicks playing really well right now winning 3 in a row for only the 2nd time all season and they've covered 5/7 as well. 4 of those wins have been at home while they also went down to NOH and shocked the Hornets. I haven't really been able to figure out the Knicks this year and honestly I've quit trying. I do know that they've had no luck historically in Philly and that's probably enough to keep me off this game. Think Philly starts out slow in the 1st half before taking over the game in the 2nd.

As for the total I'm a bit upset that it's dropped from 208. Think the under is worth a solid look. Sixers haven't allowed a 100 points at home since Cleveland dropped 101 on them on Dec. 10. Combine their good defense of late with some rustiness of the Philly offense off a 4 day break ad trying to get Brand back into the flow. This one looks to easy. Will be playing the under, but I want to see if 207+ ever comes back.

Will be playing the under and looking for a possible Philly 2nd half play.

 

[JPicks]

Magic/Heat

7.5? Wow. Didn't see that one coming. And sneaking at peek at Wagerline 2 to 1 are laying the 7.5. I see Marion has pretty much quit on the Heat. Keep in mind that I don't blame him necessarily, but his quote about thinking he needs a full practice before playing is pretty damn funny. Ask Allen Iverson if he needs a full practice before playing. Enough of that though. How the hell are the Magic favored by 7.5? They were 7 point favorites at Sacramento two weeks ago. The Heat were just 5.5 point dogs at home to Boston. I hate getting in the way of a sharp line of 6.5 and a sharp move to 7.5 but this line is just a little to big for me. One of the only times that I'll ever use betting %'s is a situation like this. I have to know if books are really just trying to draw in Heat money with such a high # or if I'm one of the few who actually think this it's off. It seems that many are fine laying the big # with the Magic. It's either take the points with the Heat or sit this one out for me. Looks like that 18-4 ATS run for the Magic has the books doing anything possible to get people off of them.

Likely play the Heat + the points.

 

[reNew Orleans]

GL today JP

im all for the writeups.

 

[wizardofodd]

BOL J. On the jazz ML tonight at -140.

 

[Marlo]

Great W/U's. You still like Utah at -3? Saw the opener yesterday, and didnt play it....now im kinda kicking myself.

 

[jimbof20]

game scares me..couldnt back cleveland here,but do expect them pull it out..i know utah doesnt match uo well with a healthy cavs..that being said obviolsy were not healty..not sure how much kinsey will play,but i REALLY like that guy a lot and would love to see him get in a rotation(didnt get to watch last night but seen he score 11 pts in like 14 min)...but still not sure how they will match up...without a serious threat down low(when i say that i mean someone that gives us matchup issues,like bymnum and those guys the other day)...williams is a stud and a nightmare,love the kid,and would feel much better if we had west to throw at him...but hopefully mo can contain him..but i think we should havent a problem containing boozer and ak..just wish Z was here to really clog that middle..the old cavs would lead me to think utah rolls,esoecially off a B2b(not sure if utah played last night or not),and maybe thats what vegas is banking on..but what gives me light for cleveland is the momentum off last nights game...sorry to rambling off in your thread but just throwing my randon thoughts out there..anyways gl on rest

 

[rod_steel]

Great number you got with the Jazz, GL JP :cheers:

 

[JPicks]

GL today JP

im all for the writeups.

BOL J. On the jazz ML tonight at -140.

:cheers: Played some Cleveland at +3 to take it back to a normal unit play. Do not like that AK is out.


NJ/MEM

Not even going to look at it after losing both Grizzies games this week. Need to give them a few days before I touch their games again.

SAC/MLW

Nothing is really screaming at me in this game. Would love to have had the 9 points as I would have been certain to play the Kings, but at 7 it makes things more dicey. I think the Kings offense and Bucks defense have been consistent enough to expect the Kings to get within a bucket of 100 worse case scenario. Bucks have been as streaky as they come on the offensive side of the ball scoring 129, 92, 85, 133 and 87 over their last 5 games. They have been much more consistent at home scoring 99 or more in their last 6. This game gives me a headache honestly. Total looks a bit high to me as I can easily see a 104-100 final, but the Bucks are to streaky to bet on anything for certain.

Likely pass as I can't get much of a feel, but do lean Kings and the Under.

WAS/POR

Bet the Wizards at +10. Agree with Tuck 100% on this one. Wizards are quietly playing better ball when they want to. Was a bit surprised how badly they lost to the Lakers as I thought they would be competitive, but that only helps out a play today. Refs are more than favorable to a road dog. Blazers do have some business to take care of looking ahead with a matchup against the Clipps who the last lost to in OT, hosting Charlotte who they lost to last week, the jazz who are a half game behind them in the division, and then tough 3 game roadie. Don't expect them to do anything more than they have to to get a W tonight and I expect the Wizards to battle hard after the embarrassing loss on TNT on Thursday. Think it sets up well for a close game.

Also played the Knicks/Sixers Under 206.5 and the Heat at +7.5.


Final Card with a possible Philly 2nd half play:

Jazz -1
Blazers +10
NYK/PHI Under 206.5
Heat +7.5

 

[JPicks]

Great W/U's. You still like Utah at -3? Saw the opener yesterday, and didnt play it....now im kinda kicking myself.

Not really Marlo. I played the game for a unit and a half, but have since played back the half unit on the Cavs at +3. AK being out is the big problem for me. He's the #1 guy that I want guarding Lebron and it looks as if Sloan would rather have him play tomorrow night and beat the divisional team in the Nuggets than waste players on the Cavs. If I could only get the game at -3 I wouldn't play it at all.

game scares me..couldnt back cleveland here,but do expect them pull it out..i know utah doesnt match uo well with a healthy cavs..that being said obviolsy were not healty..not sure how much kinsey will play,but i REALLY like that guy a lot and would love to see him get in a rotation(didnt get to watch last night but seen he score 11 pts in like 14 min)...but still not sure how they will match up...without a serious threat down low(when i say that i mean someone that gives us matchup issues,like bymnum and those guys the other day)...williams is a stud and a nightmare,love the kid,and would feel much better if we had west to throw at him...but hopefully mo can contain him..but i think we should havent a problem containing boozer and ak..just wish Z was here to really clog that middle..the old cavs would lead me to think utah rolls,esoecially off a B2b(not sure if utah played last night or not),and maybe thats what vegas is banking on..but what gives me light for cleveland is the momentum off last nights game...sorry to rambling off in your thread but just throwing my randon thoughts out there..anyways gl on rest

No problem jimbo. Boozer has been out for awhile fwiw. Never get to much into matchups but if the Cavs had Z tonight there is no way I'd touch the Jazz. This is a game that Jazz have to win and I expect them to. I've faded them their last two games as I know this is a huge 3 game stretch for them. They've had two days off to prepare for the Cavs coming off an emotional last second win and I think that rest will play a big role in the 2nd half. :cheers:

Great number you got with the Jazz, GL JP :cheers:

Thanks rod. Posted in my thread yesterday as I had a feeling it was going to move regardless of what happened with Cleveland last night and it certainly did. :cheers:

 

[jimbof20]

for the record i completly respect you opinions..but i wouldnt go as far as saying orlando is a much better road team...orlando basically lost to the same quality of teams that cavs have..lol didnt even realize boozers out..got the 3 opent to me right now and gonna take it...gl

 

[JPicks]

Knicks/Sixers

Think Philly starts out slow in the 1st half before taking over the game in the 2nd.

Will be playing the under and looking for a possible Philly 2nd half play.

Philly -6

 

[Ca$He]

Very nice day so far. Good Job.