KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Not the weather that has me on under. It's the perceived gameplans. If KC think they will outscore Indy they will lose.
***Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Discussion***
- Thread starter B.A.R.
- Start date
rambler882
Head of the Justin Fields Fan Club
Do we know how much snow actually accumulated? I'm not finding much.
BJPLAYER
Pretty much a regular
We have weather games up here in NE and I have found over the years that in order to bet an under based on the weather you have to wait till close to game time and then it has to be pretty heavy weather and accumulating on the field throughout the game in order to influence the outcome of the total.....so often it is overblown and come game time it may be cold but the field has been cleared and the conditions are not that much different and the players are kept warm on the sidelines and by playing and it really comes down to the play of the players and the game plans just like every other game. Total for me is tough in this one. If the D of both teams stop the big plays downfield then I think it stays under. Not sure they can. Probably just the side for me and I'm thinking KC -5
Solid cap and wish you luck, but your points on Mahomes vs zone don’t really say much - his ypa against zone are almost a full yard lower than his overall ypa. If anything his numbers against zone make it clear that that’s the best way to even attempt to control the Chiefs’ offensive output.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Snow and rain are almost always overblown as far as them impacting the total towards the under. The fact is that neither leads to more unders. The only weather condition that does is wind.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
Well and ice lol
The Farm
Sports Apothecary
So much emphasis on contributing factors to find a side can be argued both ways. KC defense is clearly better at home. I believe weather to be a non factor by game. I watched the 2014 kc@colts come back win this morning. Honestly I see a shootout style game. With luck playing from behind all I see are points. Lots of them. I think the total is light by about 6-8. I played Colts TT over 12.5 1H and game as well. I like Rogers to have a great game with emphasis being placed on TY and notalionanymoreEbron. This game should be amazing.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Thoughts from random Colts guy on net :..
There is definitely some good info in here but there is also an awful lot of focusing on meaningless stats and info in efforts of supporting one side or the other .. I think I even read someone try and make the point that this this would be the best D Line the colts have faced all year ?!? Talk about reaching ..
Major things that will determine the outcome :
Colts D vs KC o ..: I believe it’s been well documented here the difficulty the colts zone D will have vs KC o . But they don’t need to shut out KC . There task is to keep The ball infront and inside . AkA do not give up the big play , dont allow a 7yd pass to turn into a 60 TD catch and run, which they Actually do a good job of . From what I’m to understand there defensive game plan is to keep PM in the pocket and force him To make 25+ Intermediate completions from the pocket . They feel this isn’t his strength and if they are able to take away big play scores , steal a cpl posssesions with turnovers , KC miscues , forcing FGs , etc then the D has done there job . They will give up plenty of yards , but here objective is to hold them to the lower 20s ...
Colts O vs KC D... This is the biggest mismatch of the game and KCs D is really going to struggle . They don’t have personal to match up with colts O . You will see colts running it from 3 wide receiver sets and taking some shots in the jumbo sets . Complete mismatch . Worst cause for the Colts is if they are playing catch up and the 3 guys up front for KC can get after the pass , that should easily be schemed for though . As pretty much consensus colts O line is Elite . They are really talented, technical and have great schemes . Truly a big mismatch
It will be a different game if KC breaks a punt return or gets some points of a TO etc .. but without one of those instances I think the colts a better team and SHOULD win . Only time will tell . We will see who executes Better , but adv Colts .
There is definitely some good info in here but there is also an awful lot of focusing on meaningless stats and info in efforts of supporting one side or the other .. I think I even read someone try and make the point that this this would be the best D Line the colts have faced all year ?!? Talk about reaching ..
Major things that will determine the outcome :
Colts D vs KC o ..: I believe it’s been well documented here the difficulty the colts zone D will have vs KC o . But they don’t need to shut out KC . There task is to keep The ball infront and inside . AkA do not give up the big play , dont allow a 7yd pass to turn into a 60 TD catch and run, which they Actually do a good job of . From what I’m to understand there defensive game plan is to keep PM in the pocket and force him To make 25+ Intermediate completions from the pocket . They feel this isn’t his strength and if they are able to take away big play scores , steal a cpl posssesions with turnovers , KC miscues , forcing FGs , etc then the D has done there job . They will give up plenty of yards , but here objective is to hold them to the lower 20s ...
Colts O vs KC D... This is the biggest mismatch of the game and KCs D is really going to struggle . They don’t have personal to match up with colts O . You will see colts running it from 3 wide receiver sets and taking some shots in the jumbo sets . Complete mismatch . Worst cause for the Colts is if they are playing catch up and the 3 guys up front for KC can get after the pass , that should easily be schemed for though . As pretty much consensus colts O line is Elite . They are really talented, technical and have great schemes . Truly a big mismatch
It will be a different game if KC breaks a punt return or gets some points of a TO etc .. but without one of those instances I think the colts a better team and SHOULD win . Only time will tell . We will see who executes Better , but adv Colts .
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Really excited for this game, seems to be the one that could be the best back and forth game of the weekend. Watch it end up being the least interesting...lol.
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Counterpoint: Per DVOA, regarding pass rush, this is in fact the best DL by ranking they have faced all year. Not a reach whatsoever. Against the run? Not so much
2. Every team including much better defenses like the Chargers, Ravens and Broncos hoped to keep it in the low 20's and they couldn't.
3. Better team? There's no statistical or proof whatsoever of this being true. Advantage Colts? Going outdoors for the coldest game they have played in 4 years at the #1 offense in the league and the #3 offense in league history and there's a discernible advantage for the Colts?
All I can say is good health to you on this game and I agree that this has been a great discussion thread.
Also, if KC wins Im taking time off out of work to go next week. So just let me have this memphis!
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Results of the Chiefs season, broken down by scoring offense of the opposing team:
Chiefs 10-0 versus teams who finished the season averaging less than 25 ppg.
Chiefs 2-4 versus teams who finished the season averaging more than 25 ppg.
Chiefs 10-0 versus teams who finished the season averaging less than 25 ppg.
Chiefs 2-4 versus teams who finished the season averaging more than 25 ppg.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
I'm not picking a side, just had to share that BRILLIANT little chart I made, you're welcome!!! 
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
I'm not picking a side, just had to share that BRILLIANT little chart I made, you're welcome!!!
I'm in such a spot, like the under a LOT but like the Colts team total over a LOT what to do?
To get so picky as to dictate a score when wagering is pretty much catastrophe
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
Good morning KJ! How cool is today, right? To answer your question, I know your opinion on trends, but if you want to hang your hat on an Andy Reid home playoff game, go with the under. His team has hosted 11 playoff games. Nine went under, the most recent of which was in 2003 (lol) But, admittedly, that's worth nothing more than bar stool trivia than anything else! I'm with you on your opinion of the total.
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
I think an interesting point may be how the Chiefs shut out 6 of 8 opposing teams in the 1Q at Arrowhead this season.
KJ
Bump. Set. Shuma!
The real question might be postseason Arrowhead vs regular season Arrowhead. It's a huge question mark.
Hulu
#3DownNation
Total continues to drop with the weather report. Can now find 55.5s out there. The snow/ide accumulation is predicted to be 0.6" between 2pm and 6pm so pretty negligible during the game and the wind is almost non-existent at 7-10mph.
I liked the over from the get go and now I feel like the overreaction to the weather is going to create some real value here. Have to think about this more but I'm liking the over more and more.
I liked the over from the get go and now I feel like the overreaction to the weather is going to create some real value here. Have to think about this more but I'm liking the over more and more.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
That would be awesome, Im definitely looking to create a middle early with my u57
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Where are you getting the DL stat for DVOA showing the Chiefs being that good? Haven’t been able to find it anywhere. The only thing I’ve found on DL shows the Chiefs at the bottom...
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/dl
The only other defensive DVOA ranking I’ve found shows the Chiefs near the bottom (in the middle for weighted DVOA), but this is overall defense...
https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
I still see 12+ crosswind, not positive about it, but more my thinking earlier and under ump calling game
austinhous
Pretty much a regular
• Post-bye Saturday home game 22-12 (.647) O/U
1Q Home Team Scoring:
6 or fewer: 12/34 (.353)
7 or more: 22/34 (.647) -183 implied
14 or more: 9/34 (.265) +277 implied
Bought 1Q KC o6½ -130 and o13½ +350
1Q Home Team Scoring:
6 or fewer: 12/34 (.353)
7 or more: 22/34 (.647) -183 implied
14 or more: 9/34 (.265) +277 implied
Bought 1Q KC o6½ -130 and o13½ +350
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
Go to the right under pass protection... They rank the DL by adjusted sack rate. Chiefs rate 7th. Highest Ind will have played
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
This is a great find
jedi ninja
Larry the liberal
Thanks! The fact that Indy can run the ball may be a bit concerning, as KC’s defense overall ranks pretty low...but getting pressure on Luck will certainly help the cause.
Capaholic
Proud Member of Chiefs Nation
That would be like holding Gary Hogebooms numbers against Andrew Luck.
Patrick Mahomes: 0-0
MNGophs
Pretty much a regular
I would love to see a chart like this for the Colts. I'm pretty sure KC is going to be the best offense they have faced all season.
Health to you as well Cap. It should be a good one.
I see where you got the Adj Sack Rate Rating and that is a major reason why the colts do not want to be in the situation where they are playing from behind and in obv passing situations (who does?). but to suggest that the KCs pass rush is a step up in talent from what the colts have faced is inaccurate in my opinion. i.e Houston is .6 % pts behind KC in that particular sack adj rating and the colts have played them 3 times..
2) ha. Good point about titties.. we will see if colts can execute a GPlan of keeping PM contained and not extending plays , as well as keeping KC in front of them, tall task. If it turns into a shoot out , i think colts can score enough to compete and it will prob be a last team with the ball wins type sitch
3) I think the colts O is more suited for a sloppy playing environment then KCs.. sloppy the better. Slow down KCs speed and let the colts line up behind that Oline and run it. But we are talking about 31 degrees. Not sure temp plays a role at all today... we arent talking single digit weather . Hell id be wearing shorts if i where there
Enjoy the game.
detroit187
Pretty much a regular
Zone will do that, keeping everything in front. Don't see how there is anything more to see to it then just that. I would agree best way to play him, big arm, elite speed on the edge and even seams when Tyfreak goes slot. But don't let that number fool ya, its the more a product of the exact intentions of the scheme. If he can carve them up short, with passes to backs and Kelce etc, it will just take a little longer to score.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
Just played KC -4.5/-105 to get out of my +5.5 early.
I used to love 4 as a key number but I swear with all of the 2 point tries, it doesn't seem as key, 5 used to be garbage but now it feels like a number. That's my middle.
I will see how possessions go early but look to jump off the under.
If Colts get up 7+, I am slamming KC ML.
I used to love 4 as a key number but I swear with all of the 2 point tries, it doesn't seem as key, 5 used to be garbage but now it feels like a number. That's my middle.
I will see how possessions go early but look to jump off the under.
If Colts get up 7+, I am slamming KC ML.
Johnnyonthespot
CTG Regular
That total is tracking down, but all I can picture is Brady putting up 45 in snow games, DBs falling down and what not, one cut and gone and what not
braves
Pretty much a regular
Yep, have fun tracking Tyrek Hill
booksbestfriend
On Johnny's Shitlist
Could be back for 2H.
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