***Indianapolis Colts @ Kansas City Chiefs Discussion***

If you've watched Dame Williams play I think the difference of Hunt to him is tiny. Of course Hunt is a better player, but as we all know, RB's don't matter, right? Outside of a fumble, Dame has been everything the Chiefs could have asked for. He runs with power, speed and catches the ball well. He is the least of their problems. I thought in SEA game he should have got the ball more and perhaps that is the problem with Andy. Sometimes he gets away from things that are working so well for an extended period.

And take nothing away from SEA and not saying KC wasn't playing to win, but I thought they could have just benched everybody knowing all they had to do was beat OAK at home week 17. If we talk about how bowl teams aren't fully motivated, there is enough reason to believe KC wasn't for that game knowing the following week was a layup.
 
raems said:
The one fear I’d have as a Colts backer is potential unpreparedness for the environment at Arrowhead. The closest comp they’ve faced in terms of road crowd since they went on their run is at Oakland in late October and that’s not quite as hostile either. Luck, Kelly and the rest of the offensive line are going to have to come prepared for silent cadence / tempo to avoid late play clock situations. If anything it helps an over bet due to volume of plays.
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Colts outside in an unfamiliar environment has to count for something. This isn't TEN or HOU, teams they know so well and whom Luck has had a ton of success against. Even if they have proven otherwise, I'm alway leery of backing a dome team on the road in the playoffs playing outdoors in the cold. Thats just me.
 
Reid is so good off a bye

Although I do wonder if that is going to be somewhat limited to not knowing his opponent until yesterday

But his history of issues in the playoffs, and even their strategy and game calling the last few years is worrisome

Chiefs do seem a better offense

I do think colts score a bit though, so maybe over is play
 
raems said:
The one fear I’d have as a Colts backer is potential unpreparedness for the environment at Arrowhead. The closest comp they’ve faced in terms of road crowd since they went on their run is at Oakland in late October and that’s not quite as hostile either. Luck, Kelly and the rest of the offensive line are going to have to come prepared for silent cadence / tempo to avoid late play clock situations. If anything it helps an over bet due to volume of plays.
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Environment? these aren‘t nervous high school kids, these are pros playing in front have fans that have yelled their way through so many losses in big games
 
detroit187 said:
Colts outside on road
@WAS 21-9
@PHI 16-20
@NE 24-38
@NYJ 34-42
@OAK 42-28
@JAX 0-6
@TEN 33-17
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You left out a recent game...edit sorry you said outside, convenient coincidence. Eagles, Pats, Jets was early in the season thats apples and oranges
 
We know Luck and that offensive line protecting him can succeed in the passing game. And Mack can keep the defense off balance with the run game.

On the other side, Mahomes is a beast. You just know in the end, he’s gonna get them 27-30 points at minimum.

I think the best bet is the OVER.

Not sure what the weather looks like but the colder it is, should slightly favor the Chiefs? Not saying Luck can’t play outside but just looking at intangibles. A cold day in the 20’s or 30’s would be a fun game to watch.
 
As a Chiefs fan, especially come playoff time, I am very pessimistic. I am very worried about winning this game SU. Surprised to see the line go up to a solid 6. Colts +225 definitely has some value.

Indy has played a cupcake schedule but all you can do is play who is on the slate. Chiefs have a chance to get back 2 OL starters, Eric Berry and maybe Sammy Watkins tho I'm not confident about him. Biggest concern for me definitely the Indy offense, particularly OL. If we can't pressure Luck we could be in trouble as we know we can't stop the run. I'm already about to vomit I'm so amped/nervous. Kill me now.

And if you aren't aware Chiefs have 4 monumental heart breaking playoff choke losses to Indy over the years each of which I could write a novel on and I was at 3 of them starting with a 1995 Divisional game in which I was sure the Chiefs were going to the Super Bowl.
 
aplous said:
As a Chiefs fan, especially come playoff time, I am very pessimistic. I am very worried about winning this game SU. Surprised to see the line go up to a solid 6. Colts +225 definitely has some value.

Indy has played a cupcake schedule but all you can do is play who is on the slate. Chiefs have a chance to get back 2 OL starters, Eric Berry and maybe Sammy Watkins tho I'm not confident about him. Biggest concern for me definitely the Indy offense, particularly OL. If we can't pressure Luck we could be in trouble as we know we can't stop the run. I'm already about to vomit I'm so amped/nervous. Kill me now.

And if you aren't aware Chiefs have 4 monumental heart breaking playoff choke losses to Indy over the years each of which I could write a novel on and I was at 3 of them starting with a 1995 Divisional game in which I was sure the Chiefs were going to the Super Bowl.
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Patrick Mahomes > Steve Bono
 
That is the saving grace. All of our playoff failures have come with Bono, Grbac, Alex at QB. In PAT I believe. Hopefully see you at Arrowhead on the 20th.
 
That's a very good point Aplous and Cap, they owe the Colts payback. I need to reevaluate a bit :)

I didnt understand the Harbaugh dynamic till Inspekdah woke me.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
You left out a recent game...edit sorry you said outside, convenient coincidence. Eagles, Pats, Jets was early in the season thats apples and oranges
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Its not a convenient coincidence. I was referrencing dome teams playing outside. Therefore, it's relevant to my point of why I feel the way I do. Redskins was early in season too, hell Raiders was a while ago. The Colts have only lost one game in about 3 months.
 
raems said:
The one fear I’d have as a Colts backer is potential unpreparedness for the environment at Arrowhead. The closest comp they’ve faced in terms of road crowd since they went on their run is at Oakland in late October and that’s not quite as hostile either. Luck, Kelly and the rest of the offensive line are going to have to come prepared for silent cadence / tempo to avoid late play clock situations. If anything it helps an over bet due to volume of plays.
Click to expand...

I think the noisy crowd just makes the home players choke bro.

Bears Texans? Ravens?

Playing at home seems like a curse
 
aplous said:
And if you aren't aware Chiefs have 4 monumental heart breaking playoff choke losses to Indy over the years each of which I could write a novel on and I was at 3 of them starting with a 1995 Divisional game in which I was sure the Chiefs were going to the Super Bowl.
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Was it in 2013 they had a fucking 20-something lead going into the half? I was at a bar by myself watching my money get sucked out of my wallet each time Indy touched the ball in the second half. That was brutal.
 
Zeke said:
Was it in 2013 they had a fucking 20-something lead going into the half? I was at a bar by myself watching my money get sucked out of my wallet each time Indy touched the ball in the second half. That was brutal.
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Chiefs led 31-10 at half and 38-10 about a minute into the 3rd quarter. Jamaal Charles got hurt on the 1st play of the game and about 9 other Chiefs got hurt at "Head Trauma Field". If the Chiefs would have taken a knee every possession in the 3rd quarter they would have won. Similar to Mariota completing a TD pass to himself last year Andrew Luck picked up a fumble and ran it in for a TD as part of the comeback. Luck threw 3 INT, Colts punted just once.
 
Vasherized said:
Yes playing at Arrowhead must be a massive disadvantage for the home team ... sigh.
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It is a disadvantage at times playing at home.

Ppl think home edge matters but sadly it does not.

If anything the nervous home energy in the crowd usually costs the home team.

Ultimately the better team that executes wins the game regardless of location.

Bears any home field edge on the final kick!

Chiefs playiffs last year? Any edge vs Steelers?

Texans any edge at home?

Ravens any edge at home?

Home field is useless at home!
 
This is just through the 2015 season but since 1940 the home team is 305-148 for a 67% winning percentage.

Pats are 15-3 at home in their last 18 playoff games. Surely that’s just the genius of Belichick and Brady, right?

I doubt we’ll agree on much given your recent posting here but I know @Capaholic and @RetroVK are highly invested in setting the record straight if you wanna to continue the conversation...
 
aplous said:
As a Chiefs fan, especially come playoff time, I am very pessimistic. I am very worried about winning this game SU. Surprised to see the line go up to a solid 6. Colts +225 definitely has some value.

Indy has played a cupcake schedule but all you can do is play who is on the slate. Chiefs have a chance to get back 2 OL starters, Eric Berry and maybe Sammy Watkins tho I'm not confident about him. Biggest concern for me definitely the Indy offense, particularly OL. If we can't pressure Luck we could be in trouble as we know we can't stop the run. I'm already about to vomit I'm so amped/nervous. Kill me now.

And if you aren't aware Chiefs have 4 monumental heart breaking playoff choke losses to Indy over the years each of which I could write a novel on and I was at 3 of them starting with a 1995 Divisional game in which I was sure the Chiefs were going to the Super Bowl.
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I was at that '95 game too. Was stuck in St. Louis on business for a month and managed to score a ticket, drove across the state to go to that game. Indy was a .500 team that went on a run due to their stifling defence and Harbaugh's barely-good-enough quarterbacking. I sat with a group of Indy fans which made it more fun. Good times.
 
The Colts faced only 3 teams that had over 40 sacks this year. They gave up 9 total to those teams, half of their 18 allowed. The Chiefs had 52.

Colts were also fortunate to play the numbers 32, 31, 30, 29, 27, 26 ranked teams in adjusted sack rate. They did not play #28 because they are number 28.

Defensively, the Colts are the worst in every possible stat vs Tight Ends this year.

I’m just accumulating info as I go. I surely welcome similar info to balance out and increase the general handicap for everyone.
 
VirginiaCavs said:
How much was that Rivers and Ben on the road without Eric Berry (or Ford/Houston?) ?
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Road Chiefs played Pitt, NE, Rams, Browns, Seattle
Home Chiefs played Jax, SF, AZ, Cincy, Baltimore

Obviously D numbers going to be better at home. Injury report on Watkins and Berry should be coming this afternoon.
 
aplous said:
Road Chiefs played Pitt, NE, Rams, Browns, Seattle
Home Chiefs played Jax, SF, AZ, Cincy, Baltimore

Obviously D numbers going to be better at home. Injury report on Watkins and Berry should be coming this afternoon.
Click to expand...

Which is why they include the team average vs the road home spilts. It takes into consideration the opponent already
 
I haven't missed a Chiefs home playoff game since we moved to KC in 1991. Saw both the Lin Elliott/Ray Finkle debacle (I was young, but I still swear to this day that is the coldest I have ever been, freezing tempartures with standing water on the ground, damn cold) and the no-punt Peyton Manning game. Also went to Indy in 07/08-can't recall-because I was sure that was gonna be a win for us. Didn't go in 2014 but watched at a bar in charlotte that must have been the local Colts place so that sucked. Looking forward to some payback on the colts. I will be there this weekend and next for the Patriots game (yes, they will win).

I don't necessarily think blowout, and like Aplous I am extremely pessimistic given playoff history, but I am definitely not worried about the Colts. I think it should be a good back and forth game but the Chiefs will end up pulling away in the end. Over is the play for me as I don't want to jinx anything with the side.
 
No surprise but chiefs are dead last vs the rb (running) in DVOA metrics...and the strongest adjusted line yards goes to indys OL vs kcc DL....for prop bets/dfs focus on mack please.
They're also weak vs the TE, but not as bad as the colts (ranked 29th) kelce should feast as well.

The only way I can play this game is the colts ml or kcc ats because I think they can control the game with mack...but that'll all change if they fall behind of course
 
line is at 5.5 in the houses that matter, not a solid 6 but that line drop from the opener is probably an over reaction to Indy's easy win over Houston and Indy wasn't that great in that game (scoreless in the 2h) Houston was terrible. I think the difference this year is Mahommes, the kid plays like a 8 year vet, not sure it will be a blowout like some KC fans think but I do think they will win albeit in a closer game....I think Fat Andy has faith in this kid and he will let him play and not fuck it up like he has in the past.... Indy contained Watson so I suspect they may do the same here so Mahommes will throw it and Luck will keep pace I believe so I can see an over play...big number though....to lay that many in the playoffs
 
Playoffs are a whole different ball game.

All the easy lazy nfl defenses that the brain child nfl defensive coordinators come up with during regular season will not be available in playoffs.

The game changes. Defenses show new looks. They gameplan more. They take away certain players.
Desean - They took away Hopkins. Game over
Lamar- They used 8 dbs to stop his run. Game over

Much of Kc’s success was vs lazy unprepared defenses that didn’t put too much time or effort into stopping Kc

They have weapons and can score. No doubts.

But they are a deeply flawed team. They just don’t have a winning culture or any winners on the team.
Reid is not a winner. Regular season yes playoffs no
Mahomes style is too lucky. It will not produce in playoffs.
I can guarantee you this Kc team isn’t going to the super bowl.

Losses to rams patriots Seahawks—

The style they employ just isn’t a style that wins. The reckless style will result in a bad interception thus ending kcs season.
 
Capaholic said:
There’s that hard-hitting objective analysis I was hoping for. Seems like an airtight handicap. I’m sold.
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Lazy unprepared defenses is exactly why lamar had success during the season.

No defense coordinator cared. They just trotted out the same bs defense. Nfl coordinators are tone deaf they don’t listen.

So gus Bradley designs a system to stop him
And now Lamar’s career is over. He will never finish a full year as starter anywhere in the nfl.

Mahomes can throw Unlike lamar but he can’t read defenses or throw from the pocket. He looks to run which tells me he doesent trust his reading ability and throwing from the pocket.

Mahomes will get his scrambles taken away. Colts will force him to win from the pocket.

You can’t win in nfl by running around.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
.

Mahomes can throw Unlike lamar but he can’t read defenses or throw from the pocket. He looks to run which tells me he doesent trust his reading ability and throwing from the pocket.

Mahomes will get his scrambles taken away. Colts will force him to win from the pocket.

You can’t win in nfl by running around.
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https://imgur.com/a/jZpqG6r

17 weeks people have waited for him to slip up. Leave him in the pocket though. He will be just fine. Keep throwing darts out there Samuel. Eventually one will hit the bullseye.
 
Capaholic said:
https://imgur.com/a/jZpqG6r

17 weeks people have waited for him to slip up. Leave him in the pocket though. He will be just fine. Keep throwing darts out there Samuel. Eventually one will hit the bullseye.
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The playoffs first 2 rounds will decide Mahomes career. If he can get to a super bowl this season like Wilson did he’s ok. He could be legit.

If he doesent perform in the big moments and has a deviation from the regular season then all of his success was due to lax lazy nfl defenses.
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
The playoffs first 2 rounds will decide Mahomes career. If he can get to a super bowl this season like Wilson did he’s ok. He could be legit.

If he doesent perform in the big moments and has a deviation from the regular season then all of his success was due to lax lazy nfl defenses.
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Pat Mahomes is a gift from god. He is the real deal. Andrew Luck/Reich are amazing adversaries. Just an epic matchup.
 
Just played u57/-105

It is something to start with for in game.

Was thinking of getting off +5.5 but thought I'd see if I could get a small middle for my troubles.

I trust the coaches to manage the game smartly.
 
I took Colts +5.5 at open but have completely flipped.

Just feels like a spot the Colts run out of gas and where their butter soft schedule they've played during this run exposes them.

Colts play zone defense almost exclusively and Mahomes the top graded QB vs zone this year per PFF. Colts are the 3rd worst team in the league at defending RB + TE passes per Football Outsiders...Reid is going to make sure the backs and Kelce just feast. Tyreek Hill back to full health and looks like Watkins is too. On the other side Malik Hooker hasn't practiced all week and was reported to be in a walking boot a couple of days ago. They also lost Mike Mitchell last week so if Hooker can't go they are in big trouble with safety depth. Leading sack man Autry is also beat up and finally had some limited practice on Thursday.

Much has been made of the Colts trying to hold the ball but I think the Chiefs offense is going to chew the Colts defense alive.

And if that happens you have the Colts in a trailing position. KC is actually above average vs the pass and have some good pass rusher and are top 10 vs #1 and #2 WR. It's the depth guys that kill them but now Grant out for the Colts and they really don't have those depth guys. Kind of spot where the Colts are trailing and you see these types of warts come out, crowd gets to young OL, depth WR drop passes in the cold.

The Colts have a great coach, QB, elite line, great GM and a ton of picks and cap space. They'll be contenders for sure the next few years but in 3rd straight roadie I think they run out of gas and you see how badly they need a second impact WR, two pass rushers, and a shutdownish CB.
 
My final thoughts on this game as I will soon go into hibernation in anticipation for the next 24 hours or so:

To recap why I am not on Indy.. A team I did in fact bet several times while they played worse teams:

Much has been made of the 10-1 run by the Colts... During this run they have faced one team with an Offensive DVOA in the top 20 (Giants). Here are the Qbs faced during that stretch:

Derek Anderson
Derek Carr
Blake Bortles
Blaine Gabbert X2
Ryan Tannehill
Cody Kessler
Deshaun Watson X2
Dak Prescott
Eli Manning

One of those is in the top 12 of QBR and 6 of the remaining 8 are between 24 and 32 in QBR.

Per DVOA they played the worst schedule in the league this season. I don't want to hear about you can only play the teams in front of you. They recently needed 4th quarter comebacks against the Dolphins and Giants and lost 6-0 to the Jaguars.

Their offensive line is very good. No question. They only played 3 teams who had over 40 sacks on the season. Those teams accounted for 9 of the 18 sacks given up by the Colts. The Chiefs had 52 sacks. Thus, this will be easily the best front 7 they have played. They also managed to play (per Adjusted Sack Rate) the 32, 31, 30, 29, 27 and 26 ranked pass rushes this season. Often a recipe for not many sacks.

Andrew Luck has had a wonderful season. His accolades are numerous and I keep reading today about his pinpoint accuracy, etc etc, Meanwhile his opponent Patrick Mahomes is an untested QB who hasn't played in this type of environment this season. I'd like to think Mahomes has been tested and doubted for 17 weeks. And has passed every single test. Why is Luck getting the benefit of the doubt here? His playoff stats? 56.9 completion percentage, 11 TD/13 INT in 7 games. That laser sharp accuracy of his also accounted for him beating Mahomes 66.9% to 66.0%. This also happens to be the only stat I can find in which Luck outperformed Mahomes. I looked on FO, TeamRankings, all over... This was the only stat. Why then is he getting the benefit of every doubt?


The Colts run zone coverage at highest rate in the league. Patrick Mahomes played 5 games vs teams that run zone at top-8 frequencies this season, completing 64.1% of his passes at 7.99 yards per attempt with a perfect 14:0 TD-to-INT ratio against them.

The Colts gave up more catches, TDs and yards to TE than anyone in the league. While they excelled at covering WR 2; WR 1, other receivers and RBs all had much success in the passing game.

This took longer than I wanted it to. I am not glossing over the Chiefs defensive woes. They are bad. Quite bad at times. My lasting point is I don't think the Colts will be able to stop the Chiefs and I firmly believe a shootout in front of that crowd tomorrow benefits KC.

Good luck to all. I list the Colts deficiencies only to continue to crush this recency bias that exists. Maybe I will be around later.
 
Last edited:
Came to post about Colts use of zone coverage and how KC should be able to feast on it...but Cap beat me to it. Personally it's the biggest thing keeping me off the dog.
 
KJ said:
It is likely to be snowing during the game for whatever that's worth. UNDER. For me
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Yup, I liked under any way. This just ices it for me, and I see it's dropped a point on my site down to 56.

I may just throw more on the under anyway, I know it ain't gonna go up, and I can buy some over money back in game after a couple of failed possessions, hopefully...
 
No way in hell I would play the under but that's me. Too much is being made of the weather at this point, like they won't score tds in the snow. Colts may try keep KC off the field with Mack but once the tds start getting scored the gameplan changes. KC a threat to score tds off turnovers and special teams as well. Luck had played great but last 2 games watching he has thrown a couple that could have easily been a pick 6. KC allowing over 26 ppg and the Colts tt is set at 24.5. This line is not inflated. I wouldn't be surprised to see both tt overs hit.
 
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