HUNT #NFL 2019-2020
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- Start date
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Doesn't it seem like the Texan game is gonna be high scoring?
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Watson runs out of bounds at 8:03 and the clock operator never starts the clock and 10 officials on the field don't see it? These trash league officials all need to be replaced
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
In the Colts game that actually picked up a flag on offensive holding.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Every game is going under
Easy peasy Mac n cheesy
good job
dro95
Well-Known Member
Now that you’re done for the season, care to share some insight into your methodology for live plays? What you look for in-game, timing of plays, how you choose a game to focus on, do you have an idea of what you’re going to look for going into the game or let the game give you the signals? Etc...
I understand if you don’t feel like going into this.
I understand if you don’t feel like going into this.
Absolutely bro. That's what this place is for. To help each other. I can talk shop all day really.
Overall keys to the mental aspect:
1. Have zero fear....doesn't matter what your bankroll is...50 bucks or 20k
2. Go with your gut.
3. Know your injuries, weather, overall team chemistry, intangibles....they matter.
4. Math...pregame totals, know where you are as far as teasers hitting/not hitting....especially the 6.5 and 13.5 ones. That's vegas money makers. Know each team's team totals as well. Mainly know the pregame numbers..you want to be as far away from those as possible....that's what the general pop. plays...98% of this board and everywhere else plays that. YOU don't want to be that person...gen pop...overall loses.
5. Look for things unrelated to pregame ats, over unders....go to first quarters, first halves, 3rd quarters, 4th quarters..be different, it's uncomfortable but you get my drift..be different...Try to stay away from halftime bets because everyone chases then. Do a 3rd q bet instead.
In game:
I have to usually have to watch a game to bet it with football...other sports not so much....but we are just gonna talk football here. Look for momentum, body language, where are the flags going for a team? Is the crowd into it? Is the sideline into it? Is the line getting any push on o and d? Is the QB hot or cold? happy feet, susceptible to the blitz?
Almost always look at the QB. He is the leader, he is the one who has his hands under an ass or directly behind it 95-100% of the game. If he's fucking up or doing well, capitalize on it with a bet.
Timing is a lot..it's just something that goes with your gut like I said before. I try and focus on good teams vs bad teams in NFL, Bad teams always fuck up eventually. Look at the Lions yesterday. Not a bad team this year, but a bad overall organization who find ways to lose historically.
Another in game example...Saints game....remember every commercial on prime time usually lets you bet a plethora of shit live . I believe they got a pick or something and were on the 50. To score next was like -250 or something..i dunno, you're on the 50, you got Kamara, and Michael Thomas who are deadly inside opponent 50. Bridgwater was managing the game fine....So it was a no brainer for me. Thought it would be -450, took advantage of a soft line.
I hope this helps..Trust your eyes and instincts. Let me know if you need anything else.
Gonna bring some things over from CFB thread here
@scarf31 had some good tips...He and I are pretty similar to how we approach the games. @B.A.R. is very good too. He just uses different approaches...he likes to use the math...hedging, middling, etc. but both guys are instinctive and trust their guts.
Scarf's take...
1. Great instincts
2. Quick decision making
3. A little luck to avoid fuckery
4. NO FUCKING FEAR
Something else I put in that thread
Nfl all about situations even in live more so than cfb. I stay away from full games and 4th quarters because that league gets crooked in the 4th. Lot of good opportunities for 3rd quarter bets and 1q bets in NFL imo. Usually keep the units between 1-3 in NFL too. Team totals are about the only thing good if you are doing full games. Just been my experience. You can get some really good numbers on in game team totals.
I did stray from my 1-3 unit thing, but fuck it, you hammer when you see something.
Something else I posted in there...
Live just works for me. Just so happens I post shit in here. The juice is usually going to be higher most likely but I don't care. I'll lose some, and win some.
I've gone from the rationale of why in the hell would I bet live and be more risky when I'm already losing a pregame bet....
To the rationale of why the fuck put a lot of cash on a bet before a game that you haven't seen one play of? Why? What is the advantage? Sure you can have bama up 28-0 in the first q on a spread of - 35 for a full game but how often do you see that elsewhere?
It's not everyone's cup of tea, I get it.
Just works for me. It's a no brainer to be able to see how a game unfolds, how a coach reacts, how a team folds or gets energized, an injury, weather. The psychological aspect of a individual or team that you can see with your own two eyes is a valuable asset in betting. Why try to figure it out before a game when you can bet during it. You can feel momentum, you can feel shit. Roll with it.
@wiseplayer mentioned discipline several times. He's right....Patience is a virtue. Instinct is a moneymaker.
@scarf31 had some good tips...He and I are pretty similar to how we approach the games. @B.A.R. is very good too. He just uses different approaches...he likes to use the math...hedging, middling, etc. but both guys are instinctive and trust their guts.
Scarf's take...
1. Great instincts
2. Quick decision making
3. A little luck to avoid fuckery
4. NO FUCKING FEAR
Something else I put in that thread
Nfl all about situations even in live more so than cfb. I stay away from full games and 4th quarters because that league gets crooked in the 4th. Lot of good opportunities for 3rd quarter bets and 1q bets in NFL imo. Usually keep the units between 1-3 in NFL too. Team totals are about the only thing good if you are doing full games. Just been my experience. You can get some really good numbers on in game team totals.
I did stray from my 1-3 unit thing, but fuck it, you hammer when you see something.
Something else I posted in there...
Live just works for me. Just so happens I post shit in here. The juice is usually going to be higher most likely but I don't care. I'll lose some, and win some.
I've gone from the rationale of why in the hell would I bet live and be more risky when I'm already losing a pregame bet....
To the rationale of why the fuck put a lot of cash on a bet before a game that you haven't seen one play of? Why? What is the advantage? Sure you can have bama up 28-0 in the first q on a spread of - 35 for a full game but how often do you see that elsewhere?
It's not everyone's cup of tea, I get it.
Just works for me. It's a no brainer to be able to see how a game unfolds, how a coach reacts, how a team folds or gets energized, an injury, weather. The psychological aspect of a individual or team that you can see with your own two eyes is a valuable asset in betting. Why try to figure it out before a game when you can bet during it. You can feel momentum, you can feel shit. Roll with it.
@wiseplayer mentioned discipline several times. He's right....Patience is a virtue. Instinct is a moneymaker.
@HUNT is the best live bettor I know. We've been talking about this for years and he summed it up pretty well.
If you're risk averse...live betting isn't for you. There is a lot of tightrope walking.
Few little things that are helpful to throw in there...
1. ALWAYS you will get a better position on the team you want when they are on defense. Tons of my live bets are similar to Hunt on "next team to score", but I would say 75/25 I am looking for the plus money side. Meaning the team I am betting to score next now has to kickoff.
2. Unders are more likely in the 1st and 3rd quarters. coaching tendencies are huge....some teams like to script 15 plays to start the game....guys like Gruden or Nagy get a great feel by letting their QB practice those plays all week....but when you get to 3rd quarters adjustments are made....guys have to either switch things up or risk getting outmaneuvered by the opposing coach. Most of my under bets are 3rd quarter unders...
3. If you're an over player...PAY ATTENTION TO COACH HISTORY...i played a live in game over Cleveland Balty yesterday over 55.5 at I believe 24-18 because Harbaugh has gone full blown analytics deep....all the deuces vs. KC...he went for it on his own 35 yesterday....they're trying to win the game...they aren't afraid to miss the 4th down on his own 35 because winning % is higher to go for it...but if he doesn't get it, it sets up easy points. Don't be afraid to get a plus money over when teams get to that "desperation" point of the game. ESPECIALLY GUYS WHO ARE INTO THE ANALYTICS.
4. And this is HUGE. Repeat after me...
There are games I'm going to get my dick kicked in. There are games I'm going to get my dick kicked in.
Point is that sometimes you cannot pick your nose for a game, half, day, or week.
Don't piss away your whole bankroll chasing on a game that you just cant get a read on or feel for.
Personally, this year, I have adopted a strategy to withdraw every Monday, full bankroll from all my sites.
Why? I want the new week to be a fresh start...good week, awesome. bad week, not crushing to my life as a bettor.
Have a short memory, kids. Insanely important.
If you're risk averse...live betting isn't for you. There is a lot of tightrope walking.
Few little things that are helpful to throw in there...
1. ALWAYS you will get a better position on the team you want when they are on defense. Tons of my live bets are similar to Hunt on "next team to score", but I would say 75/25 I am looking for the plus money side. Meaning the team I am betting to score next now has to kickoff.
2. Unders are more likely in the 1st and 3rd quarters. coaching tendencies are huge....some teams like to script 15 plays to start the game....guys like Gruden or Nagy get a great feel by letting their QB practice those plays all week....but when you get to 3rd quarters adjustments are made....guys have to either switch things up or risk getting outmaneuvered by the opposing coach. Most of my under bets are 3rd quarter unders...
3. If you're an over player...PAY ATTENTION TO COACH HISTORY...i played a live in game over Cleveland Balty yesterday over 55.5 at I believe 24-18 because Harbaugh has gone full blown analytics deep....all the deuces vs. KC...he went for it on his own 35 yesterday....they're trying to win the game...they aren't afraid to miss the 4th down on his own 35 because winning % is higher to go for it...but if he doesn't get it, it sets up easy points. Don't be afraid to get a plus money over when teams get to that "desperation" point of the game. ESPECIALLY GUYS WHO ARE INTO THE ANALYTICS.
4. And this is HUGE. Repeat after me...
There are games I'm going to get my dick kicked in. There are games I'm going to get my dick kicked in.
Point is that sometimes you cannot pick your nose for a game, half, day, or week.
Don't piss away your whole bankroll chasing on a game that you just cant get a read on or feel for.
Personally, this year, I have adopted a strategy to withdraw every Monday, full bankroll from all my sites.
Why? I want the new week to be a fresh start...good week, awesome. bad week, not crushing to my life as a bettor.
Have a short memory, kids. Insanely important.
number2
Pretty much a regular
I agree with Hunt that You need to see game to play live.......me personally lost 4 plays 2 weeks ago on cowgirls 1 half just cause they playing the dolphins......thinking that they will cover first half line cause they better team.....lesson learned.....
Quick decision making and going with gut is very important.....wanted to hit Rams TT over 34.5 yesterday in 4th quarter....hesitated for few seconds and line went off board....boom, they score td....
I usually go for full game TT over when 1 team starts off slow....u get better number.....
Just sharing my 2 cents......
Quick decision making and going with gut is very important.....wanted to hit Rams TT over 34.5 yesterday in 4th quarter....hesitated for few seconds and line went off board....boom, they score td....
I usually go for full game TT over when 1 team starts off slow....u get better number.....
Just sharing my 2 cents......
Great advice @scarf31 . I know he can talk about this all day too.
Yes, you will get anally raped....have the lube in your ass at 11AM before the day starts, you just don't know. This is why I cashed out. I will lose eventually.
My problem is I get to a certain level of money and I see how high I can get ....not good, you have to stop. I've learned this from Scarf. I was getting high then pissing it away....no more.
His number 1. is very important. Momentum is huge and it's almost always plus money or short on the juice.
Here is another example of why that's big....I find to have bad days and good days on it....but it works great for shit teams vs good teams.
When you look at props before a game you will see this is almost always over -200 or -300..especially in CFB..
| Mon 9/30 | 7035 Either team 3 straight scores | -215 | |||||
| 8:15PM | 7036 No team 3 straight scores | +170 |
This indicates the chances of a team scoring 3x in a row are pretty good....not really in this game tonight, but if you do a team to score next for the second time instead of third I find that to work better....CFB if someone is rolling like Ohio State vs Nebraska..take it every time...
Yes. Exactly on the TT.....This is great strategy....you will see them pretty low...but you have to pull that trigger if you like it.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
That's an awesome month mate
You crushed it, have loved following your live stuff, respect knowing to cash out for the season when your up, and your fucking UP.
You crushed it, have loved following your live stuff, respect knowing to cash out for the season when your up, and your fucking UP.
dro95
Well-Known Member
This is very strong stuff. Glad to have sparked a little strategy session. Do you find it more profitable to play in the direction of the momentum or be the contrarian on the other side of what’s currently occurring in the game?
For example, the KC/DET game yesterday, KC is behind for much of the first half. Is that one that’s going to jump out at you to play KC to bounce back and be able to get them at + number point spreads? I guess different factors will exist in each individual game, like DET being historically a team to find a way to lose in a matchup like that one.
Another example, I was playing the UCLA/Arizona live on Saturday night and there was clear momentum in UCLA’s favor with Khalil Tate being our for zona and they just looked better overall, even though they suck. I was up and down live betting them throughout the game, but eventually lost because they lost. So my momentum read ended up crumbling.
Trying to better understand how you guys filter this stuff out.
For example, the KC/DET game yesterday, KC is behind for much of the first half. Is that one that’s going to jump out at you to play KC to bounce back and be able to get them at + number point spreads? I guess different factors will exist in each individual game, like DET being historically a team to find a way to lose in a matchup like that one.
Another example, I was playing the UCLA/Arizona live on Saturday night and there was clear momentum in UCLA’s favor with Khalil Tate being our for zona and they just looked better overall, even though they suck. I was up and down live betting them throughout the game, but eventually lost because they lost. So my momentum read ended up crumbling.
Trying to better understand how you guys filter this stuff out.
guaranteeed
Pretty much a regular
Look for momentum, body language, where are the flags going for a team? Is the crowd into it? Is the sideline into it? Is the line getting any push on o and d? Is the QB hot or cold? happy feet, susceptible to the blitz?
taking that part from your post above because I think it's so important for live game betting. So much of excelling in looking at a game during the week, whether it's by yourself or with the great discussion threads here, #letscaptogether, focuses on numbers and analytical, but watching something live you can just see sometimes who has it or not
I know analytics says momentum doesnt exist, and maybe on a larger sample it doesnt, but fuck it sometimes you just know
Great example is Reno yesterday in the in game with the bucs, saw by 2nd q they were just gonna win, they had 'it's yesterday and the rams didnt, even when rams came back he knew the bucs would score again and they did, gotta trust your eyes in the live game, not to say avoid the underlying numbers, but when you see a team just winning every battle, and an offense not being stopped, even if they are the dogs, just trust it. Factoring in things like scarf said about knowing the coach, who makes great adjustments etc. Believe in yourself
taking that part from your post above because I think it's so important for live game betting. So much of excelling in looking at a game during the week, whether it's by yourself or with the great discussion threads here, #letscaptogether, focuses on numbers and analytical, but watching something live you can just see sometimes who has it or not
I know analytics says momentum doesnt exist, and maybe on a larger sample it doesnt, but fuck it sometimes you just know
Great example is Reno yesterday in the in game with the bucs, saw by 2nd q they were just gonna win, they had 'it's yesterday and the rams didnt, even when rams came back he knew the bucs would score again and they did, gotta trust your eyes in the live game, not to say avoid the underlying numbers, but when you see a team just winning every battle, and an offense not being stopped, even if they are the dogs, just trust it. Factoring in things like scarf said about knowing the coach, who makes great adjustments etc. Believe in yourself
Bro it's a process. Been doing this almost 10 years. I was a loser at it for a long time, and still lose when not disciplined. It's all about identifying your weaknesses' admitting to them, not being in denial and adapting.
My mentor at this was tee dub...he was the fucking boss...Saw how he was betting and was like why not? Studied everything..I have an international hoops thread here in the sticky part of hoops all documented over the summer at a pretty good rate...
Constantly know your opponent, the books, their tendencies....it's like a chess match.
I always go in the direction of momentum personally...my eyes are my guide and my gut is my trigger. It could be contrarian, it might not be. A lot of to score next is contrarian because it is usually + money.
The KC game was a shitfest. I would have lost my ass on that had I played it. I like home teams. But laid off live knowing that was a tough spot for KC, but that Detroit could let them back in at any moment.
As far as UCLA/AZ I fell asleep. Some teams get a momo boost with a new qb, some don't...you made the right read looking at the box...you just have to keep grinding and you will find a niche. This shit is not easy.
I hope this answers some questions? maybe @scarf31 can chime in or someone...other guys are much better at explaining things than me.
Bingo. Exactly.
The Bucs is a great example. Crablegs played out of his mind. LA had no answer for him. Zero. BAR took advantage of the short money-lines even with the bucs up 14 pints in the 4th! They were -280, -300, etc. This early in the season things analytically are still based off last year. They all play a part.
My bad play was the Bears -12. Bears seem to always play soft zone late and just don't have the offense to score. Rely so much on the D. The D was gassed and sure enough they gave up the late TD. Cousins was on fire..hit about 9-10 in a row..in hindsight, should have bought off. But felt the Bears weren't gonna let a garbage score in after last week. Lesson learned.
Great example. Thanks teed.
wiseplayer
Pretty much a regular
Great thread. Patience when you're losing is probably the greatest time to be discipline.
On another note, I'm finding it a waste of a day watching the officials and replays ruin this game.
On another note, I'm finding it a waste of a day watching the officials and replays ruin this game.
So true on all counts. Refs are ruining the NFL....especially with Pass interference.....the sidelines, players all have influence and these flags are coming out super late.
