Hulu's WNBA 2020

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#3DownNation
I'm gonna attack this league once again after a few years off. My 2 year old daughter is measuring in the 97th percentile for height so I sense some women's basketball in my future and might as well start brushing up now. And besides...there's fuck all else that I can bet right now and I need to keep my capping muscles from atrophying.

Plays to come...
 
Teapot9 said:
Damn I wish I saw this earlier. Lines moving hard in your favor.
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Yup...gotta get to the window early to beat this league. I've seen totals move by 12 points in an hour or two.

I can't find any of my outs offering early overnight lines yet this season. Looks like everything is coming out late morning eastern time so thats when I'll be striking.
 
First game not quite what I expected. These ladies dropping shots from all over. But, being the WNBA I think we can count on a several minute drought at some point in the game.

2H under might be worth a look
 
1* CON/WAS 2H under 85.5 -115

Fuck it. I can't see this group putting up these kind of numbers in the 2H
 
If I didn't have decent money on the under, this would actually be an entertaining game. 3's dropping all over the place, both teams running the floor. Gonna take a major slowdown to get that 2H
 
2nd game is polar opposite. Sloppy play, passes to nowhere, awful shot selection. Probably struggle to hit 160.
 
B.A.R. said:
Got is half point lower.

Is this about the time lines have been popping?
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Roughly yes. Yesterday I first caught them about 10:45. Today 12:30. So late morning is about all we can say at this point.
No books seem willing to post an overnight line and I guess that’s smart given the state of things.
 
1* New York +5.5 -110

I liked the way NY hung with the league's best 2 days ago, keeping it to single digits until late and I think they can do much better against this Dallas team that has no defense to speak of and who let Atlanta drop 105 on them in their opener. NY's young players are bringing some energy and although they are a bottom-half team, I think this is one of those cases early in a season where a bad team doesn't know they're bad yet and plays like they can win every game. Big concern is Kia Nurse and whether she will be back or not but even without her this figures to be a close game. I made the line NY+2.

One more play I'm considering but I really need to slow my roll. I am too eager to risk money after having nothing to bet for months.
 
Well I was totally wrong about NY. They are bad. Hanging with Seattle in the first game was the aberration. No offensive flow, defensive breakdowns all over the place and once they got down in the 2Q just started launching nonsense shots from everywhere. This team is undiciplined and won't do much.

Nice to see Bill Laimbeer again even if he does look quasi-homeless these days.
 
And what the hell is with the scoring. LY 158.5, so far this season 174.3.

Something going on in that wubble. Maybe no preseason or training to speak of has hindered defense? Maybe the rims are too big? No idea but unders are dangerous for the time being as most teams seem to be scoring at will right now. Watch for things to calm down then find value going under high totals.
 
Hulu said:
And what the hell is with the scoring. LY 158.5, so far this season 174.3.

Something going on in that wubble. Maybe no preseason or training to speak of has hindered defense? Maybe the rims are too big? No idea but unders are dangerous for the time being as most teams seem to be scoring at will right now. Watch for things to calm down then find value going under high totals.
Click to expand...
What I noticed...

Lot of FTs?

Lotta threes

Lot of scoring in last minute of quarters, a la the NBA.
 
B.A.R. said:
What I noticed...

Lot of FTs?

Lotta threes

Lot of scoring in last minute of quarters, a la the NBA.
Click to expand...

All good points. I haven't seriously watched this league since like 2013 but the shooting seems to have improved dramatically. Especially from 3. I'd have to look at the numbers but it looks like more attempts overall and a better %.

One thing is for certain...of all sports, the WNBA is the least impacted by having no fans
 
1* Chicago -4 -104

Missed the 3.5 at open but I make this line -7 and I think Minnesota is in some trouble.
 
Barely any line movement today. The market must be right on.
I’ve also heard that another basketball league is starting up tonight so that may be drawing a little of the action away from our ladies.
 
Glad I didn't take it. Seattle has more depth so I would think they would have the advantage later in the game when both teams are on a 3 in 5. But they look old and Washington looks daisy fresh
 
1* CHI / MIN 2H u82 -112

Close game and both teams playing defense. Minnesota has forced Chicago into playing its style which is not good for the Sky.

eta upped to full unit.
 
Hulu said:
1* CHI / MIN 2H u82 -112

Close game and both teams playing defense. Minnesota has forced Chicago into playing its style which is not good for the Sky.

eta upped to full unit.
Click to expand...

This already looks like a bad bet. Its been so long since I've capped basketball I need to avoid dumb mistakes like this.
 
Fucking amateur hour last night. I need to back off and recalibrate a bit. With a compact season, theres not a lot of time to right the ship if I get into a hole so I aim not to get into one.

My totals models recommend a play on every game tonight but I'm narrowing it down to the best of the best.

1* IND / DAL over 169.5

My models spit out a probable range of 168 to 190 on this game which might be the widest its ever been but I think its justified since through 2 games these teams are both top 5 in ORtg and bottom 5 in DRtg.
 
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