Hulu's CFL 2019

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#3DownNation
Hello all, its that time of year again :D

I am way behind where I was last year at this point but I'm catching up quickly. Of course the big news right now is the CBA negotiations and how it will affect the season. Its starting to look like a delay or shortening of the season is not as impossible as it once seemed. With just over a week to training camp opening, the 2 sides are pretty far apart.

One thing worth watching for the moment... Due to differing labour laws across the country, when camp opens on May 18, Hamilton, Toronto, Ottawa, Edmonton and Calgary will be legally required to attend camp and won't be in a legal strike position until May 23. BC, Sask and Montreal will not not have to report at all and according to the union, won't. So if a late deal comes to pass, we could be in a position where some teams have had 5 extra days of camp which is huge with the short, brutish nature of CFL training camp. There could be pre-season interruptions too that could work to our advantage. Stay tuned...

One future to start off the season..

0.5* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +550

The other three teams in the division don't have a QB so unless the cats slip on a major banana peel, they should cruise to the division title. I'll take +550 in a one game showdown against whatever the west has to offer. The major concern here is Calgary with BLM returning and the other teams somewhat shaken up with player movement. They host the big game this year too. Not the strongest play ever and I generally suck at futures but I think theres value here.
 
Thanks gents! After the Super Bowl I was so football'd out that I had to take a break but the fire is back and I can't wait to get started.

One of the things I'm hearing about the CBA negotiations is that both sides are interested in a ratio change from 7 starters to 5. Fan polls seem to indicate the public is behind such a move as well. As a capper this makes me want to cry. The ratio is one of the best things about capping the CFL and I'd hate to see it reduced.
 
I'm gonna throw a half unit at the Bombers to win it all. With the signing of Chris Matthews yesterday they addressed the biggest need that remained. They now have a big play receiver to compliment Adams, Demski, Thompkins and Wolitarsky. Its among the top-3 units in the league. Beyond that Nichols is a solid starting QB and they will continue to throw Chris Streveler into the mix to run special packages. Andrew Harris is probably the best RB in the league. This is a very capable offense.

Defensively they have an above average line with Jefferson/Bryant/Nevis/Jeffcoat, with Craig Roh providing depth. Either 1 or 1a MLB in the league with Bighill. Anthony Gaitor and Chandler Fenner will likely rotate at the strong side spot while weak side is a bit of a question mark going into camp. The secondary was average last year but compensated for it with big plays. They were at or near the top of the league in INTs. They return mostly in tact adding Winston Rose who started all 18 for BC last year.

Medlock as well as probably the best special teams oriented head coach in the league. They had a pretty good draft too, loading up on both lines. I wouldn't be surprised to see former Tennessee DL Johnathan Kabongo stick with the team.

I think these guys can compete with any team.

0.5* Winnipeg to win Grey Cup +500
 
The ratio from a quality factor would help a ton imo, but agreed on that it hurts in capping, hoping its delayed

Love the hamilton pick

The o/u on all the east divisiom non ticats team qb starters combined this year might be 11.5

Havent looked deeply yet, so everything is surface value for me like the qb thing sticking out, but winnipeg value looks good too

Seeing bighills name just pisses me off, should have been right back here, especially with sol leaving now too
 
I love the ratio
As a capitalist, it is against my principles but if you water it down too much it takes the Canadian out of CFL.
 
RetroVK said:
I love the ratio
As a capitalist, it is against my principles but if you water it down too much it takes the Canadian out of CFL.
Click to expand...

You can be a capitalist and still see the need for gentle regulation here and there to grease the wheels of the machine. No contradiction there.

Capping aside, I also like it as a fan for a few reasons. While I totally understand the argument that says 'let the best players play' regardless of origin, ultimately the league is a business and must do what puts fans in seat and eyeballs on screens. The average fan in the stands really knows very little about football and a large majority of them aren't capable of assessing the rather minor talent differences that the ratio leads to. But what they do love is recognizable personalities. National players tend to stay with teams longer, are more likely to spend the off season in the city they play for and do a lot of off-season promotional appearances. With all that extra exposure and time spent locally, they become fan favourites.

When I think back to all my favourite Ticat players from when I was a kid, the large majority are Canadian. And I wouldn't have even known that at the time but they were the guys who were on the team year after year and you felt you knew them. At any given time there were probably 25 better tight ends than Rocky Dipietro sitting on couches across America but none that likely would've stayed for 10+ years and become fav favourites. I think the league realizes that these connections are important.
 
Tentative deal reached between CFL and CFLPA this morning at 2:30am.

Details so t be officially released until it’s ratified but I’m hearing salary cap and minimum salary are going up (no surprise) and the ratio stays the same! Cappers rejoice!!
 
The ratified rule changes (with my comments) for 2019 include:

  • Allowing the Command Centre to assist Referees with called and non-called roughing the passer penalties including instances where an obvious roughing the passer penalty was not called because a referee’s view was blocked. - greeeeeaaaaattttt more penalties
  • The ability for the Command Centre to upgrade a 15-yard roughing the passer penalty to a 25-yard penalty for a direct blow to the quarterback’s head or neck with the helmet when that player has a clear view to the quarterback, and there are no mitigating circumstances such as a quarterback ducking his head. - and now we have 25 yard penalties too...just fantastic
  • Allowing the Command Centre to assist on-field officials in calling penalties when the injury spotter has intervened in a player safety situation.
  • Allowing the Command Centre to assist on-field officials with called and non-called roughing the kicker penalties. - this is a good development as long as it isn't overused...the on-field officials miss these all the time
  • Removing the stipulation that allows a defender to contact a kicker’s plant leg without penalty if the defender has touched the ball prior to contact. - there goes punt blocks
  • Clarifying the definition of spearing to be when a player uses the top of their helmet as the primary point of contact to deliver a blow to an opponent. - fair enough
  • Making the use of three or more wedge blockers on kicking plays illegal.
  • Making it illegal for a defensive player to deliver a forcible blow to the long snapper while the snapper’s head is down and they are in a vulnerable position and unable to protect themselves.
  • Whistling a play dead anytime a quarterback carrying the ball gives themselves up by sliding with any part of their body. Previously, a quarterback could only “give themselves up” by sliding feet-first. - Previously the QB had a choice as to whether they wanted to avoid the hit and slide feet-first or dive for a first down. Now they have to stay on their feet and take the hit if they really want to move the chains. Not sure this helps anything.
  • Coaches will be entitled to a second challenge if their first is successful, giving them a potential maximum of two per game instead of just one. - This is necessary since the on-field officiating is so incompetent at times
  • A 10-yard objectionable conduct penalty will be assessed for faking or embellishing contact, otherwise known as diving. - Lebron doesn't even play in the CFL
  • Spearing on any player will be upgraded to a 25-yard penalty by the Command Centre when a spear is delivered to the head or neck, the player has a clear view to the opponent and there are no mitigating circumstances such as the player ducking into what would otherwise be legal contact. - the itchy fingers in the command centre will foul this up, guaranteed.
  • If a player receives two 25-yard penalties in the same game, they will be disqualified from that game. - Kyries Hebert retired so who will be first?
  • A kicked or thrown football will remain a live ball instead of becoming a dead ball when it touches a goal-post ribbon. - Seriously? The ribbon? Even with replay it will be ridiculously difficult to determine if the ball contacts the ribbon in flight. Rules committee obviously paid by the hour.
 
B.A.R. said:
How do you think this affects totals?
Click to expand...

In keeping with the general trend in football these days, it seems to be mostly about player safety (translation: keeping marketable players on the field). But as usual, it just adds up to a bunch more defensive penalties. And now we have 25 yarders...good grief.

It has to push scoring up a bit I would think but its pretty hard to pin down how much. 1 - 1.5 pts/game on average is my best guess. But we'll have to wait and see how it plays out in real life and adjust to what we see.
 
I'll just add that commish Ambrosie was the one who reduced the challenges to 1 in mid-season 2 years ago because he thought too many challenges were ruining the game flow. I think he understands how important the balance is and I sincerely hope that he will instruct the command centre to use their new penalty-calling powers only in the most egregious and obvious situations.
 
Anyone have a book that's offering CFL pre-season lines as of yet? Game 1 is this Sunday. Bet365 normally does but nothing up yet.

I may have a small play if I can find a line.
 
Hulu said:
Anyone have a book that's offering CFL pre-season lines as of yet? Game 1 is this Sunday. Bet365 normally does but nothing up yet.

I may have a small play if I can find a line.
Click to expand...
I'm not seeing anything yet but I'd assume those lines may pop closer to game day.
 
I hope so. I can't imagine its a big money maker for them.

FWIW I also got a bit more down on both Hamilton and Winnipeg Grey Cup futures at better prices than I got initially. Wish I had waited on those.
 
I agree, Hulu.

But I’m not gonna lie...woke up from nightmares in cold sweats for weeks just at that image of Mike Sherman fiddling around with his mancans.

Jeezus, don’t let ever happen again.
 
scarf31 said:
I agree, Hulu.

But I’m not gonna lie...woke up from nightmares in cold sweats for weeks just at that image of Mike Sherman fiddling around with his mancans.

Jeezus, don’t let ever happen again.
Click to expand...

Somebody get that man a wireless headset before he turns another shirt into a halter-top.
 
Finally got a line! This one is for the hardcore...no TV, radio only. I'll be huddled around my iphone listening like my forebearers might have huddled around an old tube radio listening to Foster Hewitt call a Leafs game.

0.25* Edmonton pk -110

A 9 team league forces this oddball early exhibition game only a week into training camp. I see a little bit of history repeating here. A year ago it was Edmonton hosting Sask and the Riders opted not to bring most of their projected starters. In the CFL you can get away with that on the road but in front of the home crowd, teams will typically give the starters some time. LY the Esks gave Reilly a couple of series to warm up and that was it but he was a veteran and ensconced as the starter. This year I feel they'll give Harris a bit more since this offence is completely new. Then I suspect they'll rest him in their preseason road game 5 days later. True to the script, BC is not bringing a good number of their starters including Reilly and even I am having trouble recognizing many names on the depth chart. I think the Esks grab a TD or two early and then its just a low-scoring crap-fest for the remainder. I would have preferred to take the 1H if it was available to me.

Only a quarter unit because I don't want to sleep on Ricky Lloyd. He will start for BC today and looked pretty capable last year in the pre-season.
 
Final score 22-7. Nice to start off the season with a W. The game played out mostly as expected with BC's backups unable to generate any offence whatsoever, their only TD coming on the punt return.

Trevor Harris played a bit into the 2Q but really didn't impress. I am not sold that this pairing is going to work.
 
As I mentioned the other day, I got a bit more down on my 2 future plays when some other books opened with better numbers. Futures bets are now as follows.

1* Hamilton to win Grey Cup +725
0.75* Winnipeg to win Grey Cup +533

I think this is Hamilton's year. With Masoli on the final year of his contract and making well below what he will command next season, the cats have been able to stock up talent around him. One of their remaining question marks was who would play the tackle spots after they lost Ryker Matthews to an NFL invite but then the Argo's shed Chris Van Zeyl and the cats were able to absorb his big salary and boom they have one of the best NAT Tackles in the league. Then Matthews comes back and they now have one of, in not the most, dominant lines. This team is going to score some points this year. Their defense will likely be good or better than average with a rebuilt front 4 and a solid secondary. Questions remain at linebacker but overall it should be a decent unit. I see a lot of 35-30 games this season.

Have one situation I'm eyeing for this weekend's pre-season games. Probably won't get a line until game day so stay tuned.
 
where are you getting preseason lines? I've paired down to Pinny nowadays, stopped with 365 too much of a hassle.
 
Pyppurs said:
where are you getting preseason lines? I've paired down to Pinny nowadays, stopped with 365 too much of a hassle.
Click to expand...

I use 365 although they’re not my favourite shop. SIA has a lot of CFL stuff including an attractive +140 on Hamilton to win the east but I dont have an acvt there and don’t know a lot about them. I recall them having a bad reputation years ago. Not sure if they’ve improved.

I’ve had so many hassles with so many books I’ve pairs it down to a small handful myself.
 
I read an article today that suggested Bovada, being based in Canada, had a lot of CFL options. But when I visit the site I learned they don't take Canadian accounts. I'm confused.
 
Hulu said:
I read an article today that suggested Bovada, being based in Canada, had a lot of CFL options. But when I visit the site I learned they don't take Canadian accounts. I'm confused.
Click to expand...

Hulu, Bovada is for US customers only. Canadians need to use BoDog (same site and options).

Have used them for ages and they have a TON of options from alt pointspreads to team totals to alt totals to live betting.

Must have book IMO
 
scarf31 said:
Hulu, Bovada is for US customers only. Canadians need to use BoDog (same site and options).

Have used them for ages and they have a TON of options from alt pointspreads to team totals to alt totals to live betting.

Must have book IMO
Click to expand...

Thanks scarf. I guess the article I read was from an American source. I have never played with Bodog but I will check em out.
 
Finally got a line on this morning's game and although I don't plan on betting it, I am surprised to see Toronto -3.5. This game is really a complete toss-up so theres value on the Als IMO. Will be listening to the radio feed as usual.

I will likely have one or two small bets this weekend when I get lines.
 
Its weird having a game at Thursday at 11am but the Argos are doing something cool here. They aren't selling tickets publicly but have given thousands to local schools to bring the kids for an end-of-year school trip. So the stands will be filled with kids today. I think that's a fantastic thing to do.
 
Hulu said:
Its weird having a game at Thursday at 11am but the Argos are doing something cool here. They aren't selling tickets publicly but have given thousands to local schools to bring the kids for an end-of-year school trip. So the stands will be filled with kids today. I think that's a fantastic thing to do.
Click to expand...
I was curious. That's pretty neat.
 
I;m glad I took the time to listen to the radio broadcast of this game yesterday. It confirmed what I thought about the Argos...they will be drastically better this year. The simpletons in the media world are self-pleasuring daily talking about how the Als will be so much better this year because of all their big free agent signings but when you look beyond the surface they still have some pretty major issues. The Argos have made a lot of under-the-radar changes that will add up to a lot more.

If I could find a book that offered season win totals for the CFL, I would be a millionaire. Argos over, Stamps under, Lions under.

Lines for today's games have made me back off my intended bet. I was going to fade the Esks after backing them last week and go hard on Winnipeg but at -5.5 there's no value there.

One possible play tomorrow. Still looking for one key piece of info.
 
Here’s a cool little piece of history from back in the day when the Buffalo Bills would play a tune-up game vs the Ticats. The cats won several of these contests although it Should be pointed out that while the Bills were still in training camp in August, the tabbies would’ve been in midseason form by that point.

1559332191526.jpeg
 
0.5* Ottawa -1.5 -110

On phone so thoughts when I get home. I think this one is pretty solid.
 
Different coaches have different philosophies on how to handle the preseason. We don't know what Orlondo Steinauer's will be but from his comments, he had planned to start Masoli and play him for a few series or perhaps the first quarter but on Thursday Masoli's wife went into labour which changed things a bit. Now I am pretty sure Masoli will get to stay home with his new baby while the backups travel to Ottawa. Its not like the team doesn't know who their day 1 starter will be. Pretty sure Dane Evans will get the start here He got one start last year in a meaningless season finale lose to the Alouettes. Also left at home will be some of the Cats biggest weapons like Banks and Tasker. A host of defensive players also didn't make the trip.
.
In Ottawa, circumstances are different. After losing Trevor Harris in free agency, the team has 2 legitimate options to start in Jon Jennings and Dom Davis and they need to figure out who their number 1 will be and quick. With only 2 preseason games, both these guys need as much playing time as possible. Consider these quotes from HC Rick Campbell...

"We're going to be a bit selfish here and play our offensive starters more than normal. We have a lot of position battles, starting with the QB that need to be sorted out before week 1"

Asked about resting players to keep the healthy for the regular season, Campbell added... "The best way to stay healthy is to play. Play fast and play hard. If you let up or you're trying to protect yourself, bad things happen. We just need to cut it loose, play good football and stay healthy."

So we have an Ottawa team motivated to play starters longer than normal and a Hamilton team leaving their name players home. This sounds like a receipe for an Ottawa win. A -1.5 in Ottawa suggests that the cats are a better team and in a normal situation that would be true but here I don't think that's the case.
 
Hulu said:
Where the hell is Sammy Meatballs??
Click to expand...


Room for 1 more? I am back out of hibernation.

Fit and Ready for Duty.....

I am fresh, ready, inspired, optimistic and ready for another CFL season-

This is the Season where all LIMITS will be passed, all Dreams will be achieved, our time is NOW----

Its time to disconnect mentally from Society and put our efforts into SETTING RECORDS--

WE WILL WIN because I cannot see one reason why we should Lose--

Follow Rules,Myths, Society BLINDLY will make you miss out on all kinds of opportunities--

We don't see RULES and LIMITATIONS and EXCUSES-- WE ONLY SEE OPPORTUNITIES--


# CFL 2019$$$ # Cha Ching # Hulu the Cfl Genie # Medicinal Herb # F the HERD- # Herd Mentality sucks, # Bosses- # Alpha # No talk ALL ACTION # Tony Time UFC 238

LETS GET THIS CFL MISSION STARTED--

(Mods can you please change my Picture to somebody who is a Winner? Like Tony Ferguson UFC fighter-- much appreciated!
 
Sammy Meatballs said:
Room for 1 more? I am back out of hibernation.

Fit and Ready for Duty.....

I am fresh, ready, inspired, optimistic and ready for another CFL season-

This is the Season where all LIMITS will be passed, all Dreams will be achieved, our time is NOW----

Its time to disconnect mentally from Society and put our efforts into SETTING RECORDS--

WE WILL WIN because I cannot see one reason why we should Lose--

Follow Rules,Myths, Society BLINDLY will make you miss out on all kinds of opportunities--

We don't see RULES and LIMITATIONS and EXCUSES-- WE ONLY SEE OPPORTUNITIES--


# CFL 2019$$$ # Cha Ching # Hulu the Cfl Genie # Medicinal Herb # F the HERD- # Herd Mentality sucks, # Bosses- # Alpha # No talk ALL ACTION # Tony Time UFC 238

LETS GET THIS CFL MISSION STARTED--

(Mods can you please change my Picture to somebody who is a Winner? Like Tony Ferguson UFC fighter-- much appreciated!
Click to expand...
@Sammy Meatballs is alive!!
 
Sammy...just in time. I need you to hop in the capping command jet and drop in to all 9 training camps. I expect a full report by Saturday night.

CCC is back in action for 2019.
 
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