How do you guys make your Totals numbers for Week 1 and the season?

[Schrute]

Do you just simply use points per game for and against? I would imagine not

Do you calculate it somehow using yards per point and then factor in pace?

I would like to come up with something solid but not overly complicated

 

[dudleysdad]

I have a very secret formula. Sorry I can't help you here.

 

[RetroVK]

 

[RetroVK]

If you are looking for pure modeling, Cubsker is probably good to look to.

 

[Alan Tongue]

View attachment 40982

 

[Alan Tongue]

My model works well for lines/H2H, but not so good for totals. It's not a disaster, it's close to the mark, but it's enough to make manufacture long term results. I don't know why

I'm not keen to tinker with it because of what works.

But totals in all sports at the moment can eat my ass

 

[RetroVK]

Eating mine too

 

[Schrute]

Yeah I've never really found a successful one despite tinkering. I'm starting to think of just going with more team totals and dropping game totals this year. I've found more success with them in the past b/c I think they correlate more to the spread and positional matchups

 

[cubsker]

cfb does not lead itself well to purely statistical modeling imo. I make my own numbers for each game, just generally on feel. Sure, I'm checking out plays/game, yards/play, etc to do so but I think it's more an art than a science. I generally play few totals the first couple of weeks and then a ton the next say 6 weeks, and then fewer again the rest of the way.

 

[TheGarfather]

Totals in a sport like CFB would be one of those things that would least make me want to be a linesmaker. Seems that they would be really tough to win with. You can feel good about a total you make, then you can feel good about the side on that same game, but they don't always have a nice cozy mesh point. You can feel good about the numbers separately, but not like the way they interact with one another.

Good luck making a solid total on a game like Louisville/Charlotte. Then when you settle on that, look at what it gives you for a Louisville TT. They could easily get there by themselves - or maybe not at all and whatever you choose you'll be wrong. Just a very uncomfortable sort of proposition to take a position on.