gyno mlb selections and writeups........

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
3-1 +1.13 units

reg plays: 222-228 +3.73 units
Fades: +5.99 units

Overall: +9.72 units
 
0.45* Giants +107
0.20* Giants FF +100
Reds not same team on the road. Gaudin has quietly been stellar. SF has great #'s vs Leake. Giants are my best bet today.


0.35* TB/Bos under 8.5 -102
0.20* TB/Bos under 9 -128
Price is an ace, Doubront has been great lately, quietly also. Has all the looks of a pitchers duel.
Always a playoff atmosphere when these two play.


0.45* Mets +120
Hefner other than last start, has also quietly been stellar. Hudson and Braves not the same team on the
road. Mets offense has been quietly, quietly seems to be the keyword today good lately.

0.45* Dodgers +103
Hottest team in the majors vs coldest team in majors. Rogers has bad #'s vs Dodgers.

0.3* Cubs +125
Kennedy is on my fade list. Samardzjia is a really good pitcher. Have to take a stab at this
price. Getting superior starting pitcher at +125.
 
0.15* Min/LAA under 8 -115
0.10* Min/LAA under 4 FF +105

Weaver a legit ace, pelfrey undervalued. Angels lineup has been putrid lately. Minny w/o Mauer. I see a low scoring game.
 
0.7* O's -129

I think the Orioles are a great investment for Thursday.. Here is why.


O's starter Gonzalez has been one of the hottest pitchers in baseball. 8 straight QS and here are his stats during this stretch..

6-1 2.35 ERA 1.04 WHIP

Also during this stretch he faced top offenses.. KC is not a top offense, in fact they are one of the worst. they avg a paltry 3.9 runs per game, they are cold as ice right now.


Guthrie on the other hand has been terrible lately.. 4 out of his last 6 starts he gave up 5+ runs. His ERA has been over 5 in June and July. Lefties are batting .303 against him and in the last two months he has walked more batters than he has struck out.

His WHIP is sitting at 1.41 right now.


Lets look at recent offense:
Last 6 games:

Balty
28 runs, .294 ba, 777 ops, 96 total bases

KC
17 runs, .243 bs, 643 ops, 63 total bases




The icing on the cake?

Balty does great against RHP .276 BA, .798 OPS.




I like Baltimore to win today
cheers.gif
 
0.3* LAA/OAK under 7.5
0.15* LAA/OAK under 4 FF

0.2* TOR RL -105
0.2* TOR FF -0.5 -135

0.25* TB +120
 
0.2* LAA TT over 3.5
0.1* LAA +137 game
0.1* LAA +0.5 FF -110


0.2* Mets +133
0.1* Mets FF +0.5 -110
0.1* Mets TT over 3.5
 
0.2* DET RL -115
0.2* DET -0.5 FF -150
0.1* DET -2.5 +125


0.15* Cubs TT under 3 -170
0.15* Parlay (+116)
SF ML/Cin +1.5


0.25* Cin +117
 
Wed: 4-2 +0.59 units

thu: 1-4 -1.81 units

Fri: 2-0 +1.05 units

Sat: 2-5 -0.46 units

Sun: 1-0 +0.91 units



reg plays: 232-239 +4.01 units
Fades: +7.20 units

Overall: +11.21 units
 
Really?

5 ER, 5 BB's and couldn't get past the 4th.. Thats encouraging to you?


I think the Blue Jays wiil rock em next out.
 
gynecologist said:
Really?

5 ER, 5 BB's and couldn't get past the 4th.. Thats encouraging to you?


I think the Blue Jays wiil rock em next out.
Click to expand...

He's going to be undervalued, imo. Hes velocity has creeped up in his last 4 starts from 87-88 average to 90-92 average.

He's got 25 k's to 8 walks in last 18 1/3 innings. (19 hits) (4 starts) 1 homer.

He's starting to get swinging strikes, which is a key indicator for me that his stuff is returning.

He's going to be a much improved pitcher with the added velocity. I'm not sure how long it will take, but 2 out of his last 4 starts haven't been bad at all.
 
respect your opinion and see what you're saying. I just think the Braves don't let good pitchers go and this Hanson guy is liable to get rocked on any night.

His velocity looked better and he might be on the improve, but he is also a vulnerable pitcher, always has been imo.

GL
 
0.55* Marlins -117
0.15* Marlins FF -115

Its hard to bet a team that is 40-63, 19 games out of first place and basically done for the season but I think we find a situation where its warranted. Keep in mind the Marlins have been doing pretty decent lately in fact in their last 48 games their record is 26-22.

The Mets are totally a pathetic team and lately its been showing more than ever. They scored 3 runs in last 27 innings and were out scored 20-3 in Wash series.

Mets SP today Hefner??? He's been HORRIBLE lately:
Hefner's last two starts:
4 INN, 5 ER
2 INN 8 ER

Confidence is probably shattered. Got rocked twice. Mets are pretty fucking lame team. Even when Harvey is on the mound they are barely 12-8. He has a 0.88 WHIP and ERA around 2. Hefner is no Harvey.. Hefner OPP BA last 3 years= .287

Mets BP was used a lot in last game and in the past game too. 4 different pitchers had to make 15 outs last night and a lot of pitches were thrown..

Now Turner on the other hand has been one of the more consistent pitchers in ALL OF BASEBALL. He has given up more than 3 runs only once this season and even in that game he gave up only 4 runs in 7 IP.. He's been the picture of consistency.

2.49 ERA this season!!!

Current Mets vs Turner:
.229 ba, .269 OBP and .561 OPS


Turner @ home this season:
3-0 1.80 ERA, .204 OPP BA.

turner last time vs Mets:
7 IP, 5 hits, 0 ER..


Again the Marlins quietly have been doing well last 48 games:
26-22

Marlins TEAM ERA last 48 games:
3.31

I love the Marlins chances today.. I think -117 is a very fair price to pay.



0.5* CINCY -1 -119

http://espn.go.com/mlb/player/splits...sean-osullivan

Career 6+ ERA, 1.5+ WHIP, .294 OPP BA.

Leake this season:
2.73 ERA. 2.13 ERA on road. Righties only .655 OPS.

13 of his past 15 starts were QS

Reds lineup>SD


0.15* TOR +152
0.10* TOR FF +150
Letdown spot for Oak after big series vs LAA. Rogers is pretty decent and I think TOR has a shot. Very fair price.


0.2* LAA/TEX under 4 FF +105
Both Garza and Weaver are pitching lights out, Texas bats are struggling. I can see a 2-1 score after 5. No juice .
 
Yeah, Marlins is a good bet, imo. That line has creeped up I believe.

The problem with Hanson (imo) was his velocity never returned and has battled injuries. I don't know why, but for some reason that jump on his fastball has returned. We will see....he's a guy I've faded all year.
 
0.25* balt rl -120
0.2* balt -2.5 +129

0.4* lad -1 -114

0.35* tb -1 -110

0.3* was +125


0.3* mets +120

0.2* ml parlay (+124)
balt
lad​
 
Monday: 2-3 -1.21 units


Tuesday: 3-3 +0.18 units


reg plays: 237-245 +2.98 units
Fades: +7.60 units


Overall: +10.58 units
 
*** HUGE PLAY ***



0.65* Pirates +111


0.15* Parlay (+142)
Pirates +1.5
O's


0.1* Parlay (+153)
Pirates +1.5
Dodgers

Ok I don't make a habit of betting against Wainwright but today is a good spot too. A lot of people will look at this game and say

"Hey look I can get Wainwright at -120 where can I sign up for this?"

"Hey STL has lost 6 in a row, they are due"

I've learned you don't bet against a streak, you bet ON it.

Anyway but wait... They might not know some things..

For example:

[TABLE="class: cms_table_tablehead, width: 612"]
<tbody>[TR="class: cms_table_stathead"]
[TD="colspan: 13"]PITTSBURGH PIRATES CAREER STATISTICS VS. ADAM WAINWRIGHT[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_colhead"]
[TD]BATTER[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]AB[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]H[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]2B[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]3B[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]HR[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]RBI[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]BB[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]SO[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]AVG[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]OBP[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]SLG[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright"]OPS[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_oddrow cms_table_player-10-29962"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Pedro Alvarez[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]11[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].333[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].636[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].970[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_evenrow cms_table_player-10-5798, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]Clint Barmes[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].313[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].389[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].625[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1.014[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_oddrow cms_table_player-10-28763"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Garrett Jones[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]22[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].273[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].545[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_evenrow cms_table_player-10-6390, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]Russell Martin[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]16[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].579[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].625[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1.204[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_oddrow cms_table_player-10-28701"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Andrew McCutchen[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]21[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]9[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].429[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].455[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].667[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1.121[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_evenrow cms_table_player-10-29683, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]Alex Presley[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1.000[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1.250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_oddrow cms_table_player-10-29270"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Gaby Sanchez[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].250[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].000[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].250[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_evenrow cms_table_player-10-29469, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]Jose Tabata[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]12[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]6[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].500[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].538[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].917[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]1.455[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_oddrow cms_table_player-10-29590"]
[TD="bgcolor: transparent"]Neil Walker[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]0[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]5[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]3[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"]1[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].400[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].538[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].400[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: transparent"].938[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR="class: cms_table_evenrow cms_table_bi, bgcolor: transparent"]
[TD="bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]Totals[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]115[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]42[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]8[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]2[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]4[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]20[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]10[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"]19[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].365[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].425[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].574[/TD]
[TD="class: cms_table_textright, bgcolor: #F1F1F1"].999[/TD]
[/TR]
</tbody>[/TABLE]



Thats right in 115 plate appearances vs Wainy, Pirates have a .365 ba and an OPS at almost a 1000!!!! Pirates simply own him..



Wainwright has not been his usual dominant self this July..

3.50 ERA which is solid but we're talking about Wainy here, 3.50 is not good by his standards.
He's given up 4 a couple of times.

Also Wainwright is actually hittable on the road:
OPP BA
Home : .208
Away : .272

Thats right batters hit .272 vs Wainy on the road.



Okay enough about that.


STL has lost 6 in a row and their bats are in a major coma.

Last 8 games:
.212/.274/.296

3.1 runs per game

.575 OPS!


Team is cold as ice.


Pirates on other hand..
Last 8 games:

.250/.328/.385

5.2 runs per game


Pirates bats are much hotter.


Locke has been very solid this season.
.215 ERA, 1.17 WHIP

Has not given up more than 3 ER's since 4/18

He has been walking pitchers lately but it hasn't been hurting him. Thats the only concern about Locke..

Cards have 22 ABs vs him and they are hitting .136

He pitched 7 innings vs STL on 4/28

He gave up 3 hits and 0ERs


Pirates are 35-18 @ home this season.. 66%

They've won 3 in a row and 7 out of their last 10 while STL is on the skids of a 6 game losing streak.

Pirates will finish this 4 game sweep tonight.
 
lets get this..

I have another good one.


Another big play

0.25* LAA/Tex over 10.5 -105
0.25* Texas TT over 5 -115
0.15* LAA/Tex over 6 FF +100
0.1* LAA/Tex over 11.5 +136
0.1* LAA TT over 4.5 -115
0.1* TEX RL +135


Jerome Williams
12.50 ERA in July, every game 4+ runs.


Angels are 3-10 in his last 13 starts


WHIP 1.40 this season


Martin Perez
1.50 WHIP


July ERA 5.81


He's not as bad at home.


But I still think this game is going over with ease.. I'm betting it
all different ways.
 
0.4* KC -107
KC is hot right now and simply not giving up any runs. Minny is still dog shit
and Correia is average. Value here with the hot team.


0.35* ATL TT under 4 +100
Chatwood has been solid, especially on the road. Braves offense
is not that great.. I see Braves scoring 3 runs.. maybe 4 for a push.


0.15* SEA +0.5 FF +100
0.1* SEA +141 game
Iwa is too good a pitcher to be getting this price.
 
0.5* BALTIMORE RL -120

Lyles has been awfully recently..

In July:

7.77 ERA, 10/9 K/BB, 29 hits in 22 innings and batters are hitting .315 against him.

Balty kills right handed pitching.

Overall Lyles is a very vulnerable pitcher, .282 OPP BA, .789 OPS


I can see Balty going off today after getting killed last night.

0.25* LAA -0.5 FF +125
0.25* LAA -106

Josh johnson has been horrible lately.

7.71 ERA in JULY and has given up 8 HR's just this month alone. Most pitchers have given up less this season..

Righties batting .339 vs him this season, I think LAA will have plenty of RHB's in the lineup.


I expect 2-0 +1.00 units for thursday's plays.
 
That Texas total was killed early by bad base running. Had a chance to blow it open early and made several mistakes.
 
I'm not going to go big on "overs" anymore. I'm simply not good with them.
 
0.3* BALT RL +115
0.1* BALT -2.5 +173

0.25* TOR/LAA over 8.5 -109

0.2* HOU +152

0.15* KC/NYM under 8
0.1* KC/NYM under 7 +142
 
0.45* Angels -1 -123

0.3* NYY/SD under 7 +102

0.3* ML Parlay (+138)
Balt
DET

0.2* SF TT under 3 -155
 
.4 decent size for you. Talk to me a little about Boston. Fade of bum ass McCarthy? Only thing I am slightly worried about is D's vs. a lefty... but Doubrount pitched well enough to beat Tampa a week ago.
 
wed: 3-8 -0.42 units
Thursday: 2-0 +1.06 units
Friday: 3-1 +0.85 units
Saturday: 3-1 +0.66 units
Sunday: 1-0 +0.40 units


reg plays: 249-255 +5.53 units
Fades: +8.03 units


Overall: +13.56 units ( avg risk 0.49 units)
 
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