gyno mlb selections and writeups........

  • Thread starter Thread starter Gyno
  • Start date Start date
obviously it's my team and against yours, but we cashed similar tickets...crazy one at bat did it

i hate betting on my team, glad we both got it tonight :cheers:
 
it's funny gyno because i sometimes feel the opposite

i frequently will bet against my team but still pull for them to win, don't wager on them all that often
 
65-49 +5.78 units (almost 10 units overall)

Not a fan of this card today.. But I do like one play...

0.5* Phi/SF under 7.5

I have many reasons for liking this play..

Zito has been lights out in day games so far this season (0 ERA , .203 OPP BA in 21 day game innings)
Zito has been lights out in home games (0.35 ERA)
Zito has good history vs Phi
The Phillies 7-8-9-1 should be 4 fairly easy outs (Rollins .240, Revere .221, Mayberry .218, pitcher) that will hurt a few innings.
No Howard which is not surprise, he hits .190 vs LHP. But you do get rid of a big HR threat.
SF has not seen Pettibone.
NL Pitchers Park.
 
1-0 +0.50 units
66-49 +6.28 units

+3.34 units in Astros fade..

+9.62 units overall
 
Pirates +105 for 0.55 units


Locke>Gee


Gee .312 opp ba, 1.63 whip. 4 out of 6 starts he's given up
4+ runs. usually walks 2+..


Locke per MLB.com
The young lefty has been consistent in his past three starts,
allowing a total of three runs in 18 innings. He keeps the ball down low,
meaning he also keeps it in the park. Avoiding deep counts will let him go longer in games.


Mets batting .225 with a .295 obp last 7 games.
Mets .237 vs LHP


Pirates BP>
 
my man sherwood has a great writeup for the Pirates game:

[FONT=arial !important]After a hot start the Mets are playing as projected, that being a below average team that will be hard pressed to play .500 ball. New York has dropped seven of its past 10 games. Over that stretch, the Mets own the lowest batting average in the majors at .195 and they’re also dead last in runs scored with 31. With Dillon Gee on the hill, chances are the cold bats of the Mets are going to have to score a bunch here because Gee is getting progressively worse with each start. Gee’s walks are up and his strikeouts are down. That’s the first sign of trouble. Gee’s season ended last year with a blood clot in his shoulder and now his health is in question and his results so far suggest it’s also an issue. Gee has a WHIP of 1.63, an ERA of 6.16 and a BAA of .312. He was rocked in his last two starts against the light-hitting Phillies and Marlins. Against Miami, Gee struck out one batter and walked two. Gee’s fastball velocity has also dropped from 90.4 in May of 2012 to 88.6 in his last start. Everything in Gee’s pitching profile says he’s a pitcher in peril.[/FONT][FONT=arial !important]

Meanwhile, Jeff Locke is getting progressively better with each start. His 16 walks in 33.2 innings will be of major concern for most but not us. Locke has always had good control. He has clean arm action that produces a solid 88-92 mph fastball that features nice sink and movement. He can spot it to both sides of the plate effectively and it sets up his curveball and solid-average change-up. Locke won’t dominate or post high strikeout totals but pitch location is a strength and he can even vary his arm angles to keep hitters off-guard. Over his past three starts, his walk totals are down and over that span, he shut out both the Phillies and Cardinals on the road. Locke is now 2-1 on the road with a 1.89 ERA and 2-0 over his past three starts with an ERA of 1.50. Locke and the Pirates are a much better option taking back a tag than the struggling duo of the Mets hitters and Dillon Gee spotting a price. Wrong side favored. Play: Pittsburgh +104 (Risking 2 units).
[/FONT]
 
tough loss with Pirates yesterday..

66-50 +5.73 units (avg risk size =0.44 units)



0.4* STL -0.5 FF -105
0.2* STL -1

Shelby> Garland. Rockies coming back to earth a little bit, still a dangerous team but there was no way they were going to continue that run. STL hitting .302
last 7 games. Shelby doesn't go far but in the 5 or so innings he pitches in he's been fantastic.

0.5* KC -112
KC @ home vs IMO an overvalued Yanks team that is ready to comeback to earth. Wade Davis is pretty solid, Hughes is very shaky, especially on road...
I will be looking for spots to fade the Yanks this month.


0.2* PHI +154 game
0.2* PHI +0.5 FF +100

Kennedy has not been good lately, gave up 5 runs last game, gave up 6 to shitty dodgers.. Hasn't won since OD. Wasn't all that great last season
either. AZ has not seen Philly pitcher. Some value to be had here.

0.3* Bos -1 -150
Ramon Ortiz has barely pitched in the big leagues last two seasons. Lester @ home, Red Sox should be hungry after last night. Boston should get this.


0.2* SD +163
Padres are hot right now. Rays are too but I think SD is sneaky good and Volquez has been sneaky good as well. I had to put a little something on this price.
 
0.35* Marlins/Dodgers under 7 -115
0.15* Marlins/Dodgers FF under 3.5 -115


0.4* KC -1 +107


0.35* Red Sox -1 -145


0.3* SD +140


0.3* Wash -0.5 -130
 
Friday: 3-3 +0.26 units
Saturday: 0-5 -2.15 units

OVerall:69-58 +3.84 units


Pretty shitty day on Saturday.. Was close in 4 of those, Also in Astros fade got completely
screwed with Astros scoring 3 to kill the RL.
 
0.4* Braves -105
0.1* Braves RL +150

Lincecum still not himself and has struggled in day games this season and last.


0.4* Cards -0.5 FF -110
Garcia one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, STL is hot. Col is cold as ice right now.

0.2* Cubs +150 FF
0.2* Cubs +1.5 -145

Feldman>Gio?
Cubs offense has been pretty decent lately.. Have to take this value.

0.3* SD +137
Stults is a good young pitcher. Hernandez is very shaky.. SD avoiding sweep.
 
Sunday: 1-4 -1.24 units
Overall:70-62 +2.60 units

On a slide lately, haven't had many breaks lately..
 
0.5* Nationals -122
Beckett has been terrible imo, in fact I think he has been lucky it hasn't been worse for him. Zimmerman is a top 5 pitcher. Dodgers BP still having problems.

0.4* Cards FF -0.5 -130
Lynn>Hafner, Cards off>Mets off

0.25* Pitt FF -0.5 -105
Burnett has been unbelievably good
 
1-2 -0.28 units
71-64 +2.32 units

0.5* KC +117
Guthrie has tremendous history vs angels lineup. Angels are horrible. I don't trust Vargas and KC smashes lefties.


0.5* Tex -108
Colon is really struggling and its under the radar.
Per MLB.com
Colon has issued just one walk spanning 41 1/3 innings this season,
but he's also allowed 46 hits. He has an 8.22 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his past three outings.

0.2* Sea/NYY under 7 -125
0.2* Sea/NYY under 6.5 +105

Per MLB.com
The Mariners' ace has allowed just three earned runs in 38 innings over his last five starts (0.71 ERA).
He loves pitching at Yankee Stadium, where he's 4-1 with a 1.13 ERA in five starts.
Yankee pitching has been stellar lately and Seattle can't hit.


0.3* Clev -118
Philly struggles vs LHP. Pettibone struggled in last start. The line movement is telling.
 
Tuesday: 2-3 +0.15 units
Overall: 73-67 +2.47 units


Motherfucker do I love this card..


0.6* SF/Tor Over 9.5 +100
One of my favorite angles in baseball is betting the over in a game with
two struggling starting pitchers and two hot lineups. That is the exact
situation we have here.


SF last 7 games:
.291 BA, .841 OPS, 6.7 runs per game, 9 HRS


Tor last 7 games:
.280 BA, 798 OPS, 6.8 runs per game, 10 HRS


I think its safe to say both these teams are locked in offensively.


Vogelsong per MLB.com
Since his lone quality start, on April 17 at Milwaukee,
Vogelsong has yielded 22 earned runs in 21 innings spanning four outings.
His troubles worsened in his last two games, in which he has permitted 13
earned runs and 16 hits over nine innings.


Vogelsong
7.78 ERA, 1.73 WHIP, .323 OPP BA!


Ortiz
Made his first start in almost two years last time. Walked 5 batters
and was in jams in every inning. Ortiz has a career ERA of almost 5 and
batters have hit .275 against him. 1.49 WHIP.


Blue Jays ERA last 10 games, 4.74... I'm sure we will see 3-4 innings. Last
3 days they the BP has made 127 pitches..




AL rules, DH.




What is not to like about this over?


I should bet more.












0.5* Rockies TT over 3.5 -115
Samardzija has been very shaky lately..


Last game he gave up 5 runs
game prior to that he walked 3
prior to that he walked 4. He's been letting a lot of runners on base
and thats dangerous when you are facing a lineup like the Rockies.


Rockies scored 9 runs yesterday. Cubs BP has been used quite a bit.
7 different pitchers and 27 outs made last 3 days. This same Cubs
BP who has a 4.15 ERA. Samardzija has not gone more than 6 innings since
4.19 and went 5 in a couple of those. I don't think 4 runs is asking
for too much, is it?


I love this wager. I really should put more on it..


0.4* KC/LAA over 8.5
Davis has been a gas can lately, 5.86 ERA 1.84 WHIP. Last 3 games
9.19 ERA, whip is over 2. Enright has always been a gas can. XERA is 6!
Last 25 starts his OPP BA is .325..


Both teams have potent offenses.. I see the over cashing here.


0.25* STL RL +100
Fading Marcum

Will have some ML in a parlay to DET in my Astros fade..



I love this card.
 
Gl. I just hate overs, but the ones you have look good. I dont love the rockies o bc smardjzia or however the fuck u spell it has great "stuff" and rockies struggle vs "stuff" pitchers. Theyll pound the "location" pitchers like Villanueva, but stuff guys like wainwringt & shelby owned them
 
Wednesday: 3-1 +0.70 units
Overall: 73-67 +3.17 units

Finally a pretty good day...
 
0.5* SD +1.5 -135
Padres are hot and Volquez is in good form. Wash bats have been cold
for quite some time, only two times they did well was vs pitchers
who are finished. Padres lineup is not that much worse especially considering
Harper isn't 100%.. I think there is a very good chance the Pads
avoid losing by 2 runs in this one.


0.3* White Sox +127
Quintana>Williams, right?
Also the Angels BP has been used up and is terrible anyway. Angels
are again overvalued.




Thats it for today..
 
Yesterday 1-1 -0.28 units
Overall: 74-68 +2.89 units


0.35* Dodgers +121 FF
0.15* Dodgers +122 game

Dodgers feast on LHP.. Dodgers bats have been quietly hot, they are batting .286.. This team can hit they have
had no breaks. Ryu is a legit pitcher who always goes 6 and usually gives up less than 2. Maholm gets beat up at times
I'll take the decent odds in this one.

0.5* SF -110
Bumgarner is seriously legit, probably a top 8 pitcher in all of bases right now. He is the ace of the staff
right now as all the other guys are struggling a bit..
De La rosa has been rock solid but been very lucky and faces lineups that havent seen him. SF has good #'s vs him.

0.5* Bos -1 -110
Buchholz has been pitching lights out, I dont believe in Worley. Boston won in exciting fashion last night, think
they build off that.

0.35* KC -110
everyone I know likes KC, as do I.. Shields is an ace, Parker is struggling. Oak is cold. Betting a little smaller
cause something doesn't feel right about it..

0.35* CHW +107
Angels are a hot mess, plus their BP is on fumes. This pitching rematch from Sun Night favors no pitcher. But I like
Sale better than overrated Wilson. Wilson has always been overrated.
 
hey gyno...love your stuff...watched clay's last outing and he really struggled finding the plate and the umpire was giving him everything that was within 6 inches of the plate as a strike...otherwise he would have gotten his ass kicked in that game...the sox play every inning hard and last night may very well boost them....gl
 
0.3* SD TT under 3 -115
0.2* Wash/SD under 7 -110

0.4* DET -123


0.3* CWS +120
 
0.5* Braves -1 -151

Dodgers are a mess, BP in disarray and Magill is not very good IMO.. Minor has a 2.40 ERA in his last 23 starts and appears in great form.
 
0.4* Mets TT under 4 -115

Travis Wood has been lights out, 8 straight QS.. Mets lineup is bad.
 
Nah, I don't like that game my brother..

Sunday: 1-0-1 +0.50 units
Overall: 78-73 +2.84 units


Been friggin treading water last few days.. Need to go up 6+ units soon, not sure why its happening.
 
0.4* Was/SF over 8
Vogelsong has been a gascan, Duke pitching first game in a while. Both pitchers really shaky.. Hate betting overs in this ball park but I'm not sure either
of this pitchers will get many outs..

0.4* Oak/Tex over 10.5
Two shitty pitchers, wind tunnel. I wouldn't be surprised if 17 runs were scored.
 
Monday 1-0-1 +0.40 units
Overall: 79-74 +3.24 units



I did a number on this card.. its time for a big run, today is the day to start it.. LETS FUCKING DO THIS!


0.5* PHI/MIA under 7 -120
0.15* PHI/MIA under 3.5 FF
Two cold below average lineups, two young pitchers who have advantages against hitters who havent seen them 0 AB's.. Fernandez is a legit stud
have watched two games of his and he is totally legit. Cloyd looked good in first start vs AZ, gave up 2 runs. Mia has a AAA lineup, he should
find them easy to control..

Final Score: 3-1

0.6* Braves -1 -128
Braves hot, Twins cold. Pelfrey sucks, 1.77 WHIP, batters hitting .333 vs him.. Twins have lost 6 in a row and are playing terrible baseball now. Braves have won 5 in a row.. 5 Braves have very good success vs Pelfrey. Braves really solid at home.

Final Score: 7-3 Braves



0.4* AZ/COL over 9.5
0.15* AZ/Col over 5.5 FF
Two very vulnerable pitchers here in a park where the ball flies. Two lineups I respect a lot.
Col avg's 5.3 runs per game @ home and bats .280.. Kennedy is a name, he is not the dominate pitcher he once was.
Both pitchers have a 1.4+ WHIP in their last 10 starts. Both pitchers have a OBP of .340+ in last 10 starts..

Final Score: 7-5


0.5* TB -1 -106
I don't believe Ortiz success will last. Cobb is a stud and TB secretly have a dominant duo of Cobb and Moore.. TB bats come alive @ on the road, 4.9 runs per game. In 8 starts, 6 of them were QS for Cobb.. Ortiz has his work cut out for him.. Also think TB has the superior manager in this series.

Final Score: TB wins 6-3



0.35* White Sox -101
Doubront sucks, 1.72 WHIP.. White Sox bats have come alive lately batting .293 and 41 runs last 7 games.. Boston offense a bit cold, .239 ba. White Sox @ home, better pitcher, no juice.. I'll take it..

Final Score: White Sox win 6-2



0.3* Cubs/Pitt under 7.5 -108
Pirates are an under machine, two solid pitchers. Pirates offense is cold, Garza should do well. Wandy @ home is normally dominant and hes been a gem since joining Pitt

Final Score: 4-2


0.25* Tex RL +100
Darvish made a lot of pitches in last game, thats why this is small. But Straily per MLB.com
he has allowed 10 earned runs on 10 hits and eight walks over his last 9 1/2 innings


Final Score: 8-3
 
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0.3* Cubs/Pitt under 7.5 -108
Pirates are an under machine, two solid pitchers. Pirates offense is cold, Garza should do well. Wandy @ home is normally dominant and hes been a gem since joining Pitt
Not a fan of this play. Wandy off a major effort last game may regress here. Lean Pitt anyway
Have played over on Colorado team total and may play the side. Kennedy on 5 days rest is fairly terrible.
On Houston today
 
Seems like most Pirate games find a way to go under..

good point about Kennedy on 5 days rest.. I've seen him pitch a lot lately, hes not that good anymore.
 
Am on the Phils/Fish under 7 and was considering FF under 3' based upon seeing this on twitter:

Phillies and Marlins are ranked 29th and 30th in the MLB in runs scored innings 1-5

BOL to you tonight
 
0.75* Angels -1 -127
Angels appear to be righting the ship. Wilson is in good form and Maurer never pitched past A ball. He might find a hot Angels lineup hard to handle.
I think the Angels roll here and this is one of the better bets of the season. Angels are getting hot, a run is likely coming.

0.2* Min/Atl under 8 -120
0.2* Min/Atl under 7.5 +105

Getaway game, two tired teams. Both teams sitting out major players. Just has the looks of a boring low scoring game.
 
0.2* NYY -0.5 FF +120
0.2* NYY -115
Kuroda>Hammel

0.4* PHI -1 -130
Fading Marlins, Lee has been stellar.
 
Wed: 2-2 +0.31 units
Overall: 83-80 +2.33 units



0.25* ANGELS +121
0.25* ANGELS TT over 4 -115

Angels are hot, thats all I got.
 
0.25* Angels -114
0.2* Angels -0.5 +115 FF
0.15* Angels RL +140

0.4* SD/AZ under 9 -105

0.3* Tor +100

0.25* Phi/Wash under 3.5 FF -120
 
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