gps_3 Week 7 SEC Discussion and Plays

gps_3

gps_3

Head of Alabama Department of Decision-Making
2015: 53-42-1

Week 6: 10-15

Locked In:

FSU -7
Penn St +17
Oregon +1'
Memphis +10'
TCU -20'
Missouri +16
Alabama -4
Iowa PK
Stanford -6'


Futures:

Conference title:

OU to win Big12: +400
Mich St to win B1G: +625
ASU to win Pac12: +700
UGA to win SEC: +450
LSU to win SEC: +900

Season win totals:

tOSU U 11' -120 (6-0)
AU U 8' +130 (3-2)
TCU U 10 +115 (6-0)
UGA O 9 -140 (4-2)
Ole Miss O 8' -120 (5-1)
Oklahoma O 8' -140 (4-1)
UCLA U 9 -125 (4-1)
Wisconsin O 9 -115 (4-2)
 
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Week 7 SEC Games with my PR lines:

Auburn @ Kentucky (+0.5)

Alabama @ aTm (+5')

Florida @ LSU (-10)

Mizzou @ UGA (-9')

Vanderbilt @ South Carolina (-4')

La Tech @ Miss St (-14)

Ole Miss @ Memphis (+11')
 
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Having a kid later this week, so depending on the hospital's wifi connection, I may be around to discuss. Looking forward to another good week of discussion this week. Been a lot of good conversation. I had a brutal week last week. Worse than the record indicates. Probably tread lightly this week and see if I can get back on track. Good luck to everyone this week
 
You really think even on the road that LSU is ten points better than UF? I know that UF has been playing with their hair on fire and are due for a let down, but if they can slow the run game and force LSU to throw the defense alone can keep it close.
 
Troutman said:
You really think even on the road that LSU is ten points better than UF? I know that UF has been playing with their hair on fire and are due for a let down, but if they can slow the run game and force LSU to throw the defense alone can keep it close.
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I hated that number as soon as I saw it after I updated my PRs yesterday. I feel pretty good about where I have Florida rated, so either I'm too high on LSU, give them too much of an HFA, or both.
 
Just heard that Florida is suspending Will Grier for remainder of season
 
What the heck is ligandrol? Looks like it's similar to roids or something? That's what i read he failed for. Any you Gator fans know anything more?

Not sure when totals come out nowadays but would think the total in Baton Rouge would be NFL esque. Grier or not, two scores seems like the only way to play that game if you're taking a side.

I haven't seen aTm play yet this year. This QB is getting lot of love, not much to go off of in the blowout last year in Tuscaloosa as he just got trash time in the 4th. This style offense worries me a lot more than anything else on the back end of the schedule. I do think it will be Bama's toughest test simply because of scheme and venue. Still think Chavis is couple years out from getting the defense where it needs to be, but don't see Bama hanging 50+ again. Looks like a good game to just sit out and enjoy as a fan.

Really don't see how Kentucky is a dog in this game. Auburn disdain aside, they haven't done anything well this year. Seriously, nothing.

If Mizzou had a pulse they could prob hang in Athens this week. How does UGA mentally respond after two weeks of heart break like they've had? Their totals have been weird this year, so much fluke scoring past two weeks in their games, prob a good spot to go under the number or look at some TT under options.

Got a weird feeling about Memphis, call it a gut feeling they win. Know very little about them other than they are good on offense. This is the same gut that felt Mizzou would compete with UF last week too so that's important to note.

Side notes - every week our DL impresses me more and more. Been trying to think of a more impressive position grouping on any team in the nation the past 5 years or so and can't think of any. Love seeing Tim Williams out there - have a feeling he sees the field a lot this week and gets his number called a few times. Also, how about Ragland last week. Holy smokes what an animal. The pedigree at MLB past few years - Rolo, Hightower, Mosley, Ragland. Fun to watch.

Congrats on the baby, by the grace of God, my first is due on the bye week between Tenny and LSU :cheers3:
 
Adding:

FSU -7
Penn St +17
Oregon +1'
Memphis +10'
TCU -20'
Missouri +16
Alabama -4
Iowa PK
Stanford -6'
 
CrimsonK said:
What the heck is ligandrol? Looks like it's similar to roids or something? That's what i read he failed for. Any you Gator fans know anything more?

Not sure when totals come out nowadays but would think the total in Baton Rouge would be NFL esque. Grier or not, two scores seems like the only way to play that game if you're taking a side.

I haven't seen aTm play yet this year. This QB is getting lot of love, not much to go off of in the blowout last year in Tuscaloosa as he just got trash time in the 4th. This style offense worries me a lot more than anything else on the back end of the schedule. I do think it will be Bama's toughest test simply because of scheme and venue. Still think Chavis is couple years out from getting the defense where it needs to be, but don't see Bama hanging 50+ again. Looks like a good game to just sit out and enjoy as a fan.

Really don't see how Kentucky is a dog in this game. Auburn disdain aside, they haven't done anything well this year. Seriously, nothing.

If Mizzou had a pulse they could prob hang in Athens this week. How does UGA mentally respond after two weeks of heart break like they've had? Their totals have been weird this year, so much fluke scoring past two weeks in their games, prob a good spot to go under the number or look at some TT under options.

Got a weird feeling about Memphis, call it a gut feeling they win. Know very little about them other than they are good on offense. This is the same gut that felt Mizzou would compete with UF last week too so that's important to note.

Side notes - every week our DL impresses me more and more. Been trying to think of a more impressive position grouping on any team in the nation the past 5 years or so and can't think of any. Love seeing Tim Williams out there - have a feeling he sees the field a lot this week and gets his number called a few times. Also, how about Ragland last week. Holy smokes what an animal. The pedigree at MLB past few years - Rolo, Hightower, Mosley, Ragland. Fun to watch.

Congrats on the baby, by the grace of God, my first is due on the bye week between Tenny and LSU :cheers3:
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ALL my Rebs feel this way.....ALL them
 
I also think Bama is in for a game....they just never match well with TAMU style; or at least haven't
 
Ligandrol is a SARM- basically trying to do what steroids do without the side affects- perfectly legal(not by the NCAA of course) but they don't work well at all- This stuff really shouldn't be banned but it is what it is- the kid should have checked- many "hardcore" supplement shops sell this stuff and give kids all the wrong information about them-

gps-

I think what he is saying is Saban's defenses have had a hard time with this offense in the past- I think that had to do more with Johnny football and his defenses have had problems with running qb's in the past- Bama shoved it up their azz last year- I like the under in this game myself as the Aggie defense should keep Bama from throwing the ball well at all- IMO of course

GL this week!
 
and I am not being an ass, but I think Bama is in for a real game and a loss would not shock me.

This may be the homer in me, I swear it just feels like an off year for Bammer. A nice nice rebound after Piss, I don't know...

Look yall have owned us since the thing we do not speak of........I think we get ya'll this year in T......and I worry about LSU v TAMU and Piss.............not that LSU couldnt get blasted in T, I just think we get it done this year there. A hunch. I know this....we both keep winning, and the rest of the country will hate us again haha
 
Had a terrible week last week as well. Seeing things similarly this week, which may spell trouble for you, haha. I especially like Memphis catching two scores at home with ole piss looking ahead to A&M. Backdoor should be wide open if its even necessary.

FWIW: I'm reading white is progressing well with learning the playbook during the bye week. Expect to see a few new wrinkles from AU offense, possibly even seeing jeremy johnson as h-back or wr. And god knows our def (for whatever reason) can't fight their way out of a wet paper sack. I expect AU offense to look much better and think Towles will get his. No idea why this total is so low, but trap or not i'm hammering the over. I see it as a 38-37 somebody type game. GL as always, sir.
 
twinkie13 said:
oops lol...59-0. And honestly I didn't recall that game.

I still think it will be tough, and I certainly don't expect that score, you?
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No I expect it to be pretty tough. Just think it's funny that people, not just you but national media too, use the same narrative that Saban can't defend Sumlin's offense. Maybe Manziel had more to do with it than Sumlin?
 
gps_3 said:
No I expect it to be pretty tough. Just think it's funny that people, not just you but national media too, use the same narrative that Saban can't defend Sumlin's offense. Maybe Manziel had more to do with it than Sumlin?
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The OL was something fierce too that Johnny had. Real nasty. I find myself going back and forth on whether Bama really doesn't do well against the spread or not. I know that it's a tougher scheme to defend than UGA, Arky, LSU pro-style. But at the same time, if you think back to the Ole Miss game they really did nothing. 140 of their 350ish (didn't look up) came on those two crazy plays. I know big plays and crazy plays are a part of football but those two, especially the helmet pass, are going to be more rare.
 
It's not that Alabama can't defend the spread, or HUNH, from a schematic standpoint. We've shut down plenty of spread teams the last 8 years. Look at the teams who have had success and look at the QBs: Tebow, Cam, Manziel, Nick Marshall, and Cardale Jones. The rankings of the teams we've lost to are generally top 5-7. And until last year, it was the ability of those teams to run the ball that killed us. So yes, Saban and Alabama struggle against offenses headed by an elite QB. Just like everyone else. And now that the majority of college offenses are spread, it stands to reason that when we lose a game, that's likely the type of offense that team will play. But the narrative that many just accept is fact doesn't really hold up if you look at it. It also doesn't account for the defensive changes we've made to play those teams. Despite the 43 points, I thought the D did pretty well against Ole Miss. This Saturday will be a great test to see where we are. But I think the biggest factor in the game will be our run game (and commitment to it) versus the Aggie run defense. If we can consistently run the ball well, we'll be tough to beat. If we can't and are forced into obvious passing situations, I shudder to think what Myles Garrett will do to Coker.
 
gps_3 said:
No I expect it to be pretty tough. Just think it's funny that people, not just you but national media too, use the same narrative that Saban can't defend Sumlin's offense. Maybe Manziel had more to do with it than Sumlin?
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I just find it odd, that LSU has beaten TAMU every time since they joined the SEC and even in the Cotton Bowl before that.....yet Bama is deemed to have "trouble" with TAMU by everyone nearly(59-0 wasn't much trouble last year it would seem).

And yes, it was likely JFF. LSU owned him, not sure why.
 
Doesn't help that Kenny hill was n full on hungover mode last year. Last year was a reckoning.
Ags will have to stop the run and get the ball out quick on offense. Oline isn't as good as Jff frosh yr. edge goes to our rcvrs tho.
If it goes sideways, which is easy to do vs. bama, it will be fun to see them chase kyler around the field. Especially if protection breaks down
 
twinkie13 said:
I just find it odd, that LSU has beaten TAMU every time since they joined the SEC and even in the Cotton Bowl before that.....yet Bama is deemed to have "trouble" with TAMU by everyone nearly(59-0 wasn't much trouble last year it would seem).

And yes, it was likely JFF. LSU owned him, not sure why.
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LSU certainly did a better job defensively than we did against aTm when Manziel was there. I think part of it is scheme, and part of it was having smaller, faster defenders, especially at LB
 
anyone have the Brett Bielema video of him drawing the personal foul then celebrating

this guy is unreal...lost lettermen has a nice article.
 
The Auburn Tigers have not lost in Lexington since 1966. That's about to change.

With you on Bama and good luck on all of 'em.
 
A few LSU injury notes. Fullback JD Moore left the Carolina game early with a knee injury. Speculation is that he will be out for an extended time, possibly the season. True freshman Mouton filled in but isn't on his level, and if you saw the game you noticed more 3 wide sets than usual.

LT Hawkins left with what looked like an ankle, but returned. May be worth watching how he handles a pass rush.

TE Gordon is expected to return. He was the "starter" but is basically a 3rd tackle and isn't the receiving threat that Jeter and Smith are, but he is a key piece of the power game. They've missed him in that regard and it will help with Moore out.

Starting DE Bower is expected to return. He has been out since the first series of the Syracuse game.

And finally, it sounds like Jalen Mills may be able to play. He was set to start at safety and slide down to the slot/nickel in those packages before an ankle/leg injury early in Fall camp. Jefferson has taken over at safety, which he would have done when Mills slid down to the slot, so there hasn't been a big drop off there. But the slot guys have been abused all season. Thomas is recovering from knee surgery last year and isn't what he was, and Jackson the true freshman has ability and can fly but has also been beaten as he learns. If Mills can go I wouldn't expect to see him at safety, but they may try to get him back as the nickel.

This could always change as Miles is like the CIA when it comes to injuries, but this is the way it looks/sounds as best I can gather.
 
M.O.T said:
A few LSU injury notes. Fullback JD Moore left the Carolina game early with a knee injury. Speculation is that he will be out for an extended time, possibly the season. True freshman Mouton filled in but isn't on his level, and if you saw the game you noticed more 3 wide sets than usual.

LT Hawkins left with what looked like an ankle, but returned. May be worth watching how he handles a pass rush.

TE Gordon is expected to return. He was the "starter" but is basically a 3rd tackle and isn't the receiving threat that Jeter and Smith are, but he is a key piece of the power game. They've missed him in that regard and it will help with Moore out.

Starting DE Bower is expected to return. He has been out since the first series of the Syracuse game.

And finally, it sounds like Jalen Mills may be able to play. He was set to start at safety and slide down to the slot/nickel in those packages before an ankle/leg injury early in Fall camp. Jefferson has taken over at safety, which he would have done when Mills slid down to the slot, so there hasn't been a big drop off there. But the slot guys have been abused all season. Thomas is recovering from knee surgery last year and isn't what he was, and Jackson the true freshman has ability and can fly but has also been beaten as he learns. If Mills can go I wouldn't expect to see him at safety, but they may try to get him back as the nickel.

This could always change as Miles is like the CIA when it comes to injuries, but this is the way it looks/sounds as best I can gather.
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Think they easy Jalen in pretty slowly?
 
twinkie13 said:
Gators DT Jon Bullard on Fournette, "He is nothing that we can't stop"
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He will get his but they will scheme to stop him. UF has the secondary that can play man to man and stack the box. Once in obvious passing downs the heat will come and LSU will struggle with that. Still think the UF defense it getting overlooked again.
 
twinkie13 said:
Gators DT Jon Bullard on Fournette, "He is nothing that we can't stop"
Click to expand...

More often than not, this stuff is fodder. But I go back to Jordan Lynch a couple years ago, mouthing off to FSU before the Orange Bowl, that NIU was going to "wear them out" on offense. That didn't go so well, and the FSU defense pointed it out to him during the game and for days after. There's been numerous other examples.

You're typically not in great shape if you need bulletin board material to get you ready. But giving a beast like Fournette additional incentive to pound you? Makes great sense.
 
Frank Costanza said:
More often than not, this stuff is fodder. But I go back to Jordan Lynch a couple years ago, mouthing off to FSU before the Orange Bowl, that NIU was going to "wear them out" on offense. That didn't go so well, and the FSU defense pointed it out to him during the game and for days after. There's been numerous other examples.

You're typically not in great shape if you need bulletin board material to get you ready. But giving a beast like Fournette additional incentive to pound you? Makes great sense.
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last guy was an Auburn defender. that went well for Auburn.

Obv, FLA isn't the mess that Auburn now is, but I am sure Lenny is listening
 
If you read the full quote from Bullard, he says that LF is best back in the conference and that it will take multiple defenders to slow him down. Says "he's nothing we can't stop," but will take a tremendous effort by the whole defense. Wasn't even close to what that moron for AU said, but the media needed it to be more sensational than it was. Shocking I know
 
Troutman said:
He will get his but they will scheme to stop him. UF has the secondary that can play man to man and stack the box. Once in obvious passing downs the heat will come and LSU will struggle with that. Still think the UF defense it getting overlooked again.
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Florida will easily have the best defense LSU has faced so they aren't going to run for 350 this week, but I would caution not to overlook their offensive line. Scheming to stop Fournette and loading the box isn't a new concept and won't catch anyone by surprise. LSU ran for 200 in Gainseville last year and I don't think they'll get less than that this week. The key for Florida will be to make them grind it out and limit the 10-20 yard runs, along with the huge plays obviously.
 
gps_3 said:
It's not that Alabama can't defend the spread, or HUNH, from a schematic standpoint. We've shut down plenty of spread teams the last 8 years. Look at the teams who have had success and look at the QBs: Tebow, Cam, Manziel, Nick Marshall, and Cardale Jones. The rankings of the teams we've lost to are generally top 5-7. And until last year, it was the ability of those teams to run the ball that killed us. So yes, Saban and Alabama struggle against offenses headed by an elite QB. Just like everyone else. And now that the majority of college offenses are spread, it stands to reason that when we lose a game, that's likely the type of offense that team will play. But the narrative that many just accept is fact doesn't really hold up if you look at it. It also doesn't account for the defensive changes we've made to play those teams. Despite the 43 points, I thought the D did pretty well against Ole Miss. This Saturday will be a great test to see where we are. But I think the biggest factor in the game will be our run game (and commitment to it) versus the Aggie run defense. If we can consistently run the ball well, we'll be tough to beat. If we can't and are forced into obvious passing situations, I shudder to think what Myles Garrett will do to Coker.
Click to expand...
I agree that Alabama running game success will be the key to the game. If you look back to the A&M/Ark game, Ark controlled the LOS completely in that game and dominated TOP 40/20 and TA&M only ran 48 plays. I think Bama comes out and really emphasizes the running game and controlling the LOS and then sprinkles in some play action with Coker. They should be of the mind set to limit TA&M possessions.
 
M.O.T said:
Florida will easily have the best defense LSU has faced so they aren't going to run for 350 this week, but I would caution not to overlook their offensive line. Scheming to stop Fournette and loading the box isn't a new concept and won't catch anyone by surprise. LSU ran for 200 in Gainseville last year and I don't think they'll get less than that this week. The key for Florida will be to make them grind it out and limit the 10-20 yard runs, along with the huge plays obviously.
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Yep - that will tell the story at the end of the game. I think its close and a late score wins it either way. I plan on loading up on Uf against the spread.
 
gps_3 said:
If you read the full quote from Bullard, he says that LF is best back in the conference and that it will take multiple defenders to slow him down. Says "he's nothing we can't stop," but will take a tremendous effort by the whole defense. Wasn't even close to what that moron for AU said, but the media needed it to be more sensational than it was. Shocking I know
Click to expand...
Wow what a fuck job....all that I saw was the one quote
 
Adding:

UK +2'
Mich St +8

Was waiting for 10 on UF, missed it the other way. Will monitor before I bet it, if I do
 
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