GOY Lines at Sportsbook.com...

Aztec4Life

Montezuma Mesa Survivor
Made two small plays this time around, as I see some value in these lines. I'll list all the GOY lines shortly after this post.


Week 12 - 11/15/07 (Thursday Night):
Oregon -1 @ Arizona [0.8 Units] --> HUGE revenge game for the Ducks, who strolled into Zona last year and received an ass whoopin. Tuitama hasn't looked sharp, and Oregon looks improved on both sides of the ball (offense due to Dixon's maturation).

Week 13 - 11/23/07 (Friday Night):
Boise State +16 @ Hawaii [0.5 Units] --> I don't like betting against Hawaii's explosive offense, but 16 frickin points? Yes, I am aware the game is on the island. Yes, I know Boise State usually doesn't play phenomenal on the road. But it's BSU getting 16, not laying 16. We all saw Hawaii struggle to stop the run last week against Louisiana Tech, who totalled well over 200 yards on the ground, averaging roughly 5 ypc. This bodes very well for Ian Johnson, as Peterson will most definitely feed him the rock to keep Brennan off the field and out of rhythm. I also think this large spread is a small over-reaction to BSU's loss last week.

Week 13 - 11/23/07 (Friday Afternoon):
Georgia -2 @ Georgia Tech [0.5 Units] --> Simply taking the better team in a rivalry game. Could be dumb on my part, however...only time will tell!

Week 8 - 10/20/07 (Saturday Afternoon):
California +1 @ UCLA [0.5 Units] --> For some strange reason, this line has risen from +1 to +2 over the past week. I'm not worried though, as Cal has the upper hand at just about every skill position. UCLA hasn't been scaring anyone (least of all me) with their play lately.

Week 14 - 12/1/07 (Saturday Morning):
Navy -11 @ Army [0.5 Units] --> Already losing some value on this line. I still think this line will rise above 10 at some point.


That's it for now. I'll C&P those lines in a little bit.

:tiphat:
 
Last edited:
B.A.R. - :cheers:


For some reason, the C&P isn't working. Oh well. Just visit Sportsbook if you want to have a look.

:smiley_acbe:
 
I'll post the list of games. Home teams on the bottom. The one's I bolded are leans, and bolded in green is a play. If you're curious about the date of the game, just look it up anywhere. Anyhow, here's the list...(*PK = pick)


Texas A&M
Miami FL -1.5

Penn St -7
Michigan

Michigan St -5
Notre Dame

Georgia
Alabama -2

Florida -14
Ole Miss

Alabama
Florida St -4

Notre Dame
Purdue -11

UNLV
Nevada -6.5

California
Oregon *PK

UCLA -7.5
Oregon St

Auburn
Florida -13

Utah
Louisville -21

Virginia Tech
Clemson -1

Wisconsin -7
Illinois

Nebraska
Missouri *PK

Oklahoma -6.5
Texas

Notre Dame
UCLA -21

Florida
LSU -12.5

Georgia
Tennessee -1

Kansas
Kansas St -4

Florida St -7
Wake Forest

Georgia Tech -4
Miami FL

Wisconsin
Penn St -5.5

Texas A&M
Texas Tech -1.5

Auburn
Arkansas -3.5

South Florida
Rutgers -7.5

Miami FL
Florida St -8.5

Texas A&M
Nebraska -7

California
UCLA -3.5

USC -24
Notre Dame

Tennessee
Alabama -2.5

Auburn
LSU -21

Boise St
Fresno St *PK

Ohio St
Penn St -7

Nebraska
Texas -6.5

USC -11
Oregon

Georgia
Florida -3.5

Virginia Tech
Georgia Tech -3.5

Michigan
Michigan St -4

Wisconsin
Ohio St -3

Florida St
Virginia Tech -5

North Carolina
NC State -3

Michigan
Wisconsin -10


Texas A&M
Missouri -3

USC -7
California

Auburn
Georgia -8

Florida
South Carolina -1

Oregon -1
Arizona

Hawaii -12
Nevada

Miami FL
Virginia Tech -9

Louisville -1.5
South Florida

Ohio St -2.5
Michigan

Oklahoma -11.5
Texas Tech

USC -9.5
Arizona St

Nebraska -6
Colorado

Texas
Texas A&M -2

Boise St
Hawaii -16

Arkansas
LSU -21

Clemson
South Carolina -7

Florida St
Florida -8.5

Georgia
Georgia Tech -3

Miami FL
Boston College -7

Virginia Tech -3.5
Virginia

Oklahoma St
Oklahoma -21

Utah
BYU -10.5

Washington St
Washington -7.5

Alabama
Auburn -1

Rutgers
Louisville -7.5

Army
Navy -17.5

Arizona
Arizona St -9.5

California -20
Stanford

Oregon St
Oregon -9

UCLA
USC -13


Phew! That's it!

:tiphat:
 
Thanks for listing all of that... i think you will find a nice middle opportunity on that arizona game if you dont just want the locked up value. nice find.
 
Week 12 - 11/15/07 (Thursday Night):
Oregon -1 @ Arizona [0.5 Units] --> HUGE revenge game for the Ducks, who strolled into Zona last year and received an ass whoopin. Tuitama hasn't looked sharp, and Oregon looks improved on both sides of the ball (offense due to Dixon's maturation).

Like the Boise pick, but have to disagree with your AZ take. I'd lean towards Oregon at this point, but so much of how AZ plays depends on whether or not they're in bowl contention or not.

IMO Tuitama looked very good last week, if he gets hurt between then and now, than you got a steal at -1, because the Mildcats don't have a backup. After 2 games though, Willie is completing 61% of his passes for 500 yards, 6 TD's and only 1 INT, so he's playing a little better than you ay think. If they're playing well, I could see them beating Oregon. For some reason, AZ matches up well against Oregon. I hope you hit this and AZ goes in the tank, but those are for completely different reasons.
 
Arizona is the week after the trojans which hurts oregon a bit win or lose .. but i am pretty sure oregon goes off a larger favorite so if circumstances change you can get off of this one with a decent middle chance.
 
Like the Boise pick, but have to disagree with your AZ take. I'd lean towards Oregon at this point, but so much of how AZ plays depends on whether or not they're in bowl contention or not.

IMO Tuitama looked very good last week, if he gets hurt between then and now, than you got a steal at -1, because the Mildcats don't have a backup. After 2 games though, Willie is completing 61% of his passes for 500 yards, 6 TD's and only 1 INT, so he's playing a little better than you ay think. If they're playing well, I could see them beating Oregon. For some reason, AZ matches up well against Oregon. I hope you hit this and AZ goes in the tank, but those are for completely different reasons.

You make some valid points, bjorks.

Tuitama did look very good last week, but considering the Mildcats were playing Northern Arizona, it's kind of hard not to look good. Go back to week one, when Arizona paid a visit to BYU and got smacked around all game long by the BYU defense (Final Score = Arizona 7 BYU 20). Arizona didn't score until there was 53 seconds left in the 4th QUARTER! Essentially, it was a 20-0 shutout on BYU's part. Also, Arizona only had 32 yards net rushing in the game, averaging 1.7 ypc! By the beginning of the 4th Quarter, Arizona had no choice but to go pass crazy, since it was their only chance to get back in the game, and BYU was more than happy to allow 8-10 yard passes down the field. Not scared in the least by Tuitama throwing 5 TDs against Northern Arizona. I'm sure Dennis Dixon could throw up to 10 TDs if Oregon kept their foot on the gas.

I think this year, Dixon will be the difference in this game. He has a full year under his belt now, and has looked extremely poised thus far. I just can't see Arizona keeping pace with the Ducks offense.

Regardless, thanks for the input. :cheers:
 
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frankie - Not sure if I could lay that many points with Purdue. Are you that confident in their defense?. .
 
ARG!

If only I would've taken Florida -14 @ Ole Miss last week!

Number opened a TD higher than that today. This is the perfect example of why I created this thread...the potential for finding great value in future games like this.
 
Hey fellas!

Check this out...

Exactly 6 days ago, Oregon was -1 at Zona. This week...

Oregon -11 @ Arizona

The line has jumped 10 points!!!

Unfortunately, Boise State was +16.5, and now...

Boise St +17.5 @ Hawaii


Also, today I added the following GOY play...

California +1 @ UCLA [0.5 Units]


:cheers:
 
Plan on keeping the value or planning on an incredible middle opportunity ?

again ... great find on that game.
 
Plan on keeping the value or planning on an incredible middle opportunity ?

again ... great find on that game.

Not sure yet bro. If line continues to rise, which I suspect it will, then I will probably middle. Heck, I may middle even if it stays where it is.

Thanks bud! :cheers:
 
Adding another GOY play...

Georgia -2 @ Georgia Tech [0.5 Units] --> I think as the season rolls on, the Bulldogs will improve on offense, while GT will continue to struggle. Hopefully, I'm right!


:cheers:
 
South Florida (+9.5) at Rutgers

Bulls won't be catching more than about 6-7 here from what I've seen so far. Rutgers is simply not 9.5 points better...

Miami (+7) at Florida State

Gotta take your chances with the team who has actually proved they are gonna be good this year...what has Florida State shown so far?

Louisville (+16) at West Virginia

Buy stock when it's low...

Auburn (+10) at Georgia

Remember what the Dawgs did to Auburn in this rivalry game last year? Yeah, I can see that happening again here with the roles reversed. Georgia is not this much better than Auburn...

Miami (+7) at Boston College

Simply put, BC won't be playing at their current level the entire year. Miami is more talented everywhere and could take this one down...

Oklahoma State (+29.5) at Oklahoma

Comical...6 point dogs at home last year, return pretty much everyone on both sides of the ball, and it's a 23.5 point swing...

Oregon State (+16.5) at Oregon

Easy middle opportunity here, as OSU has nowhere to go but up and Oregon nowhere to go but down.
 
I looked last night and a few potential gifts....especially the Happy Valley tilt

OSU +3 at both PSU and UM
 
I think the thing here is to not look for winners as much as looking for lines that won't be there when gametime comes...

You really think the ones I posted will be that high come the week of the game? Maybe Auburn, but that's it...
 
I think the thing here is to not look for winners as much as looking for lines that won't be there when gametime comes...

You really think the ones I posted will be that high come the week of the game? Maybe Auburn, but that's it...

Totally agree with that theory...

The two I posted will not be at that number...well surely PSU won't..maybe UM playing a pocket passer and if they get rolling it could be in that area
 
I think the thing here is to not look for winners as much as looking for lines that won't be there when gametime comes...

You really think the ones I posted will be that high come the week of the game? Maybe Auburn, but that's it...

I also couldn't agree more. I was a little off on Boise St (line has since risen from 16 to 18.5) and Cal (line has risen from 1 to 2). But, My Oregon has gone from -1 to a whopping -14. Good middle opportunity there, but...the Mildcats are playing so bad right now, I doubt I'll give it a whirl.
 
I also couldn't agree more. I was a little off on Boise St (line has since risen from 16 to 18.5) and Cal (line has risen from 1 to 2). But, My Oregon has gone from -1 to a whopping -14. Good middle opportunity there, but...the Mildcats are playing so bad right now, I doubt I'll give it a whirl.

Do not completely write it off. In a brutal Pac 10, any game against an Arizona or Washington State or Washington is a dangerous one...teams are liable to overlook those teams when those teams are capable of beating them. I'm sure Arizona will start to play better and Oregon might possibly digress.
 
Are these things still available? I was not able to find them. I would think they should pay out on VPI -3.5 at Virginia now and avoid the rush in November.
 
What the hell? Boise State getting that many points in a game that's going to come down to the wire? Hawaii's not that talented people...
 
What the hell? Boise State getting that many points in a game that's going to come down to the wire? Hawaii's not that talented people...

LOL! That's exactly the same thing I was thinking when I took that bet. Now the line is...

Boise St +18.5 @ Hawaii

Eighteen and a half frickin points! WTF?!?! I thought 16 points was overly generous, and now I'm kicking myself for jumping it too early.

:hang:
 
Are these things still available? I was not able to find them. I would think they should pay out on VPI -3.5 at Virginia now and avoid the rush in November.

No, these exact lines are no longer available, as they change from week to week. But you can find the current GOY Lines at the bottom of the football betting page.
 
Sportsbook.com GOY Record: 0-1 [-0.5 Units]


'an_horse'


Well, with Cal falling to UCLA, I lost my first GOY play.

Adding another GOY play...

Week 14 - 12/1/07:
Navy -11 @ Army [0.5 Units] --> Let's see...Navy's unstoppable rushing attack against an Army defense giving up nearly 200 yards/game on the ground? This year's outcome (blowout in favor of the Midshipmen) should be similar to last year's. Navy could very well win this by 28+, though 20 sounds about right to me.

:cheers:
 
Now that the list is shorter, I'll post the lines again (my leans are in red)...

**Just check the date/time of this post if you're wondering how current the lines listed below are.


Oregon -13.5
Arizona


Hawaii -7
Nevada

Miami FL
Virginia Tech -9.5

Louisville
South Florida -4.5

Ohio St -6
Michigan

Oklahoma -7.5
Texas Tech

USC
Arizona St -2

Nebraska
Colorado -7.5

Texas -6
Texas A&M

Boise St
Hawaii -7.5

Arkansas
LSU -9.5

Clemson -2
South Carolina

Florida St
Florida -13

Georgia -2
Georgia Tech

Miami FL
Boston College -7

Virginia Tech -2
Virginia

Oklahoma St
Oklahoma -19.5

Utah
BYU -5

Washington St
Washington -5

Alabama
Auburn -6

Rutgers
Louisville -7

Pittsburgh
West Virginia -25

Army
Navy -8

Arizona
Arizona St -10

California -13
Stanford

Oregon St
Oregon -19.5

UCLA
USC -15


That's it!

:cheers:



 
Awesome!

I see I was right on with USF +9.5 over Rutgers and Auburn +10 over Georgia (although that lost), as well as Okie State +29.5 over Oklahoma. A little wrong on Miami +7 over BC though, hahah...
 
counselor - Thanks bro!


**Update on the line shifts**

Just as I suspected, the Army/Navy line shot right back to 11. Still haven't lost any value there, though I regret not taking Navy for more last week at -8.

As for the other lines, the shifts are as follows...

Oregon -1 --> -12.5

Boise St +16 --> +4

Georgia -2 --> Georgia -5


The main reason I created this thread was to point out the potential for great value (due to an overreaction to a loss, etc) in these GOY Lines. Right now, I'm looking very hard at...

Florida St +17 @ Florida

I know Bowden and his Noles just lost by a boatload to VT, but most of those points came off of turnovers in the 4th Quarter. Aside from that, they've either won, or been within a TD in the rest of their games this season. I know Florida and Tebow are on a roll, but Bowden is notorious for covering as a dog...and the Noles are getting 17 frickin points here!!! I'm hoping the rivalry aspect will also help the Noles to keep it close.

Any thoughts here fellas?

:shake:
 
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