Friday NBA: Two Plays I Love

B.A.R.

B.A.R.

CTG Partner
Staff member
The lines are up and the two I were targeting are right where I hoped they would be.

Detroit vs Washington

This is always a fun matchup. Billups and Arenas have routinely had shootouts and there have been some fun games over the past few years. Last year the Wizards dominated the season series. Detroit has held their own this season.

Detroit is 3-1 since the arrival of CWebb. The one loss was a one point defeat to the Utah Jazz. Now, the competition hasn't been stellar but they are winning the games. What I want to point out is that the DET offense has yet to be crisp and smooth since 84 came here. Last nights 4th quarter was really the first signs of what could be. The inside-out game was working nice along with Tay/Big Shot making plays from outside. I need to stress that Detroit has left 25-30 points off the board in the 4 games Webber has been here. He literally has had 12-15 assists taken away from him because teammates are not used to receiving those types of passes. This is starting to work itself out. At the saem time Webber is staying within himself. He scored 19 against the Cats on 9 shots. Very efficient. I fully exepct this Detroit offense to have their breakout game against the Wizards. Its a perfect opportunity against a team that disdains defense.

The Wizards are coming off a humbling defeat to the Suns. They got smoked in their own gym. The game was over after the first quarter. Rested, ands with some revenge on their minds they stroll into the Palace on Friday night. I think they will be a spry group and shopuld turn this into a very exciting game.

Hammer the Over here...I love it...my favorite total of the year other than that Raptors-Nuggets one back on November18th.

Over 204.5 -110 5 units


Cleveland @ Philadelphia

You have got to love home and homes. This is especially true when the home team that is favored on night one loses to an inferior team. This always provides an excellent spot for revenge.

I would have been concerned if this line had come out at like 2.5 or 3. That would have been fishy. Fortunately its at a 4.5. That is basically telling us what should win.

Philadelphia's defense is horrid. I expect the Cavs to play much better start to finish against a team they should mop off the floor. Two bad losses since returning home from the 7 gamer out West. Its time for the Cavs to turn the tide and i see them cruising in Phila on Friday night.

Cavs -4.5 -110 5 units




Thats the whole card for Friday. If you would like to discuss these games or any others further go ahead and reply and I will respond as soon as possible. GL to all.
 
i really like that cavs play because i was hearing that some players spoke out after the philadelphia game and were really pissed, i honestly would not be surprised if this is their biggest win of they season in terms of margin of points.
 
I love these both. Hopefully by the time I can get at these lines they won't be too much higher than where you have them.
 
I dont know BAR about that price with Cle. Absolutely agree with your comments but the line I think is simply where its at cause if you look at -11.5 at home then switch homecourt (3.5pts) you get -4.5....Cavs just seem to be getting overvalued but have done well in revenge spots if memory serves me correct. It all depends on Phillys mindset after the win in Cle. Its not like Cle played well on the West Coast swing either.....
 
Nut...the line is where it should be...I just would have been more leery if they had adjusted it. The line is spot on. The factors in the game give a huge edge to Cle imo
 
mmmmmmm hmmmmmmm...you already know I love Washington overs :smiley_acbe:


should I play another Gil prop? :an_roll_laugh:
 
Cleveland hasn't played well in weeks - winning at GSW was not as much through the Cavs good play as it was the Warriors' ineptitude. Here's the thing.

IF Cleveland's guards and forwards (other than Lebron because he does it) drive to the hoop, then the offense will open up and the Cavs should win by 25. If no one but Lebron drives to the hoop (and him only when he doesn't feel like shooting a jackass 3ball), then forget it.

IF Cleveland gets Z and Gooden open on the wing or top of the key for good jumpers, that's fine. But what they'll do for much of their games is pass around the outside and have Donyell fucking Marshall shoot a contested 3...

I know it's tough to win twice in a row like this, AND Philly's got to shoot lights out again in order to win this at home...but I agree with Nut...I think the line is about right. The difference in the cover is how the Cavs play. ...not the 76ers.

GL with this one...
 
betcris for now kev..will look into other things...just letting things settle right now..also use a few locals if need be
 
prolly...i put a dime in originally just to get started and haved rolled it over several times since
 
I know most people here can't use Pinnacle anymore, but when do they release their openers generally?
 
generally Fridays would have been up for a few hours now

Other days they come up right around now.
 
That Cleveland line jumped out at me too. I'm not a big "revenge" guy but I think Cleveland will come in with the Wounded Bear mentality.

I like the Grizzlies and Bobcats getting double-digit points too.
 
frankiegotti said:
i really like that cavs play because i was hearing that some players spoke out after the philadelphia game and were really pissed, i honestly would not be surprised if this is their biggest win of they season in terms of margin of points.
Click to expand...


Mike Brown spoke up..The players didnt seem to0 disappointed in the locker room after the game..Lebron and Mike Browns points of view were completly different after the game. This team is a mess right now. Not sure Id play em laying any points on the road to anybody, although your angle is correct.GL
 
Probably go with you on the total. Cleveland? The only thing I am sure of is that I will not bet on them. GL
 
BAR, I highly recommend looking into matchbook. The only drawback to them is there are no viable early lines.

:beer:
 
red...I have been looking...and will most likely put some ash there...

I want both early lines and reduced juice!

LOL--tough to find these days
 
GL BAR....love the total...easy 210 game

Cavs LeBron James aggravated a toe injury during Wed's game (53 mins; 39 pts). X-rays returned negative, and the team is hoping he doesn't have to miss any time.
 
Big Al: Yes, Phillyroom is right... James hurt his toe playing all those minutes and his status for tomorrow is questionable, so this line is now off the board.
 
What do you think of this BAR?

Still playing the game the same or will you be buying some back?
 
Same Matt. Unless he is a total no go. If you let small injuries affecyt your capping you get screwed in end. How many times do you see guys bet against a team due to injuries? More times than naught they lose.

Philly, good to see you agree. They both hit 100 no doubt...should be simple

I saw that report on my phone net while I was out...appreciate the posting of it though fellas.
 
I understand the revenge aspect on a home and home, but I believe the angle is much stronger when the games are B2B.

I made Clev -3. You will not be alone on this one as the public will pound the Cavs, because in their eyes "no way Cleveland loses 3 straight and certaintly not 2 in a row to Phila". Probably a legit thought, and I agree a "4.5" is better then my number of "3" where the oddsmakers leans are concerned. That being said, I question how good Cleveland is right now. The line of "11" the other night was retarded. I made it a "8" but didn't play because my confidence is in shambles. From that standpoint, I think you can basically ignore the oddsmaker "swing" here.

LOVE the over in Det. I made it 203 with a circle that if the game was on or above that number then the 'over' was the play. I expect Washington to compete tomorrow.

Good luck, and you really do need to check out matchbook.
 
BAR - I like how confident you are on these two games and I will ride you out. I'm going all out against all that capping 101 states. I am gonna parlay both of your plays for 12 units. I really like your confidence here and its either early exit for my season here or a fresh new start for me to start smarter. I've been so cold lately I can't make my own plays. If you lose, I'm fine with it. I should be taking a break but my decision has already been made to win with a parlay. Go big or go home for me. GL
 
Ride or Collide Bro!

Hey..as BC said..and Vas said...Dogs on a 12-0 run...some easy favs will cover tomorrow...and hopefully Cle is one of them...that total is gold..I really believe so

I feel awesome about these plays..

I hope they hit..thanks for kind words
 
If Lebron will play I give CLE 55% and fair is 1.81 ML. Bookies now removed lines and wait for James status. If James is out with disaster play they have showed I see small fav in Sixers, 51%. CLE lacks everything now and must start with their minds. There is problem. They think they are too good. Fact is their record is far better than play. All this around them in media can definitely motivate them. CLE -4.5 is nothing special in my eyes just normal revenge spot.

I fully agree on Detroit OVER 204.
 
Rogi...line is where it should be...

You know I look for "situations"..this is one

Dogs have won last 12 GAMES ATS in nba..be leery Friday...check BetCrimes season trends thread
 
BAR - you don't like Det -6 though? I mean I can see detroit putting up 100+ but what if their defense is just too much for the wizards to handle?
 
OSO$

Detroit has struggle at times with Wiz.

I think they win..just a close one..like 112-108...too close to number

Detroit as a fav is dogshit most of time..as dog they are nice indeed.
 
B.A.R. said:
Rogi...line is where it should be...

You know I look for "situations"..this is one

Dogs have won last 12 GAMES ATS in nba..be leery Friday...check BetCrimes season trends thread
Click to expand...

Yeah correct, line was where it should before went offline so no value there for me. I have 2.1 local odds on Cleveland and here is definitely value but I will try only small. As some people already said: Cavs are mess now.

What you guys all think about New Orleans -2hcp ? I hope West is ok. This line is also fair but Hornets should start winning. SAC is mediocre team on road.

My leans are also : SEA -2, DEN +3.5, ORL under 179 ..
 
^ Just my opinion but I don't think New Orleans is a team you want to lay points with at the moment .. could say the same about Seattle ..

Anyway, GL
 
B.A.R.

Tough call on the Det over, but you are hot lately and I'm horrible at totals lately (which used to be my bread and butter):

In their last 10 head to head meetings, Det/Wash have only gone over 205 total 3 times, 2 of those were in Wash and 1 in Det, but the game in Det was an under until it went into o/t (and we all have been there lately)

For this season, Det games have only gone over 205 4 times. 2 at home, 2 on the road. 2 of those over 205's were against the Knicks (1 home/1 away), 1 was at home against Phoenix (total for game was 209) and 1 was on road against Wash (216). The Wash game was the back game of a b2b for Det and they knew they had the next 5 days off.

But on the other hand, Det has not played a high-scoring game (excluding o/t) since their last 3 games of 2006, so it could be that they are due.
 
Use 5Dimes. I've used Bet Cris. They mucked around with my account. Also they hassle you with sales calls if you slow or stop using them. I use to have Pinny . . . c'est la vie.

I'm not going to get near the CAVS with them losing the other night and now James injury. You know small injuries are just that but you also see more time on the bench as well.

LAL.
 
<TABLE id=HB_Mail_Container height="100%" cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0 UNSELECTABLE="on"><TBODY><TR height="100%" UNSELECTABLE="on" width="100%"><TD id=HB_Focus_Element vAlign=top width="100%" background="" height=250 UNSELECTABLE="off">Good luck Big Al Reno! Looks like cash to me bro!
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B.A.R.
Gonna follow you for a few seeing as how I can't buy a W...

GL tonight. I like them both. I agree with the shootout between Mr. Big Shot and GA...Should be a great game..
 
B.A.R. said:
Same Matt. Unless he is a total no go. If you let small injuries affecyt your capping you get screwed in end. How many times do you see guys bet against a team due to injuries? More times than naught they lose.

Philly, good to see you agree. They both hit 100 no doubt...should be simple

I saw that report on my phone net while I was out...appreciate the posting of it though fellas.
Click to expand...

Absolutely correct. People get carried away thinking if they see 4,5 guys out injured they're on to something, while in reality they're not. The other day I took Indiana because I like their new groove, I like the possible swing which such trade often creates, so I nailed them, Wade and Tinsley's uncertain status was a very small factor in the end. Of course sometimes it's an injury that can turn out to be essential, but most of the time people are fooling themselves.

I remember a few guys around (not on this board) who used to check NHL injured players list, and copy/paste it into the forum, if they saw 6,7 players out they would pound the other team. Similar case happened to the Maple Leafs a month ago, I don't remember who the opponent were (I think they were playing the Bruins). Maple Leafs were missing men but the others stepped up and scored 10 (TEN!) goals that night, beating the crap out of Boston. People were all over Boston of course. Of course there are cases where injuries do affect the outcome, but you can't base your pick on it.

Good luck.:cheers:
 
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