Everything went great until the 4th quarter in LAC. Now we can bitch and moan and that really hurt for us LAC backers. However I will say you must learn from losses. LAC did the same exact thing against a shorthanded GSW club last week. So to me it should be no suprise. This is something you can cap. I said it last week to redbearde or in his thread when SA after blowing out NO 1st H allowed the backdoor cover. Well next game SA blew out Boston in the 1st H only to hang on late. Some teams finish teams off some dont. Realize that the best reason to play NJ was they should have been flat and to theer credit they werent. Vince went off and Nachbar is playing the best ball of his life and Marcus Williams looks like the prospect we though he was.
Shit happens and its frustrating. I hedged alittle of my Bulls play and didnt my LAC play. Of course you know what happened. So today I minimized my capping and went wth my instincts. Cause this was that little voice inside me saying 6 is still to big to give NJ but I tried to rationalize it...when tends to lead me to comfortable losses. Did this with NO and Chi in round 2 of the playoffs....
Anyway just remember that I wont be around cause I myself will be playing basketball in Brooklyn ...should be back by 10Pm. Second remember is I went with my gut tonite...more then anything.....
ATS :
Boston +9 {2units} ML +350 {1/4unit}
Cavs ML {3units}
Hawks +8.5 {2units} ML +350{1/4unit}
NYK +4.5 {2units}
Pistons _5 {3units}
Kings +2 {3units}
Memphis +13 {2units} ML + 800{1/4unit}
Suns 1st H -6.5 {5units} will play 2nd H if it loses
Suns -11.5 {3units}
Blazers +10.5 {2units} ML +580 {1/4unit}
Blazders +6 1st H {2units}
Totals:
Over 188.5 Boston {1unit}
Under 180.5 Orlando {4units}
Over 199 NYK {1unit}
Over 210.5 SA {3units}
Over 109 Suns 1st H {3units}
Over 179 Houston {3units}
Over 217 Utah {6units} best bet
REASONS:
>In Toronto we have two things I am basing my play. The first is while BOS is shorthanded they had reached the point where IMO home court was worth ZERO. So adjusting that line would give you Raps -9.5/-10 here in my world but I think you must adjust about 2.5 pts for Fords absence and West return. Bottomline is Boston past 8 road games all w/o Pierce and must w/o Wally or even West are 6-2 ATS with the losses by the HOOK!! What I dont like is split action on this game. You would expect a heavy Tor bias here so that is concerning cause perception is everything. The total it oddly moved up since both teams have been playing to the under. However if Boston covers you would have to expect an over. Raps are scoring 95-100 here so leaning OVER...
> Sucks to lose LeBron but still have some capable scorers in Hughes and Zydrunas. Historically Z and Gooden have given Philly fits. I think Cleveland is highly motivated to win here. LeBron seems oblivious anyway. Saying were okay as a team and ignoring there play the past 10 games. You take away LeBron and these teams are even....Donyell Marshall hopefully gets those minutes...no idea on the total.....seems like they are baiting you to take an OVER....
> With ATL just cant trust the magic as big chalk now. They were in a bad spot on Monday and could come out focused here so thats is concerning. Hawks are 4-3 last 7 but 5-0 ATS outside of Charlotte games...Think this has 90-84 written all over it...
> Staying away from NY but would lean towards them . Curry Out which is HUGE and Marybury back in. Have to do from deep which lends to the OVER but I do lean towrad sthe under..just would never play an Under of less then 200 @ MSG cause NY wants to run. So basically NYK and the Over are smart plays here that I am passing on. Screw it went NY
> With DET you have the Pistons streaking who probably should be at least 6.5 here. Wiz arent slumping and have struggled vs quality teams on the road. Lean towards the over but as of now staying away.....could see 105-97.
> Fading Hornets as favs....lean over but not sold.
> The Bucks are NOT the NYK not even close.....NYK would be about 7 or better favs....Bucks were +10 in Sac!!! They will get smoked......
> rockets playing much better on offense of late expect them to get 95 here....scared by the line drop....
> Think Utah takes this game after losing at home to memphis. Just look at past 5 games for both. Utah is playing much more uptempo and getting and allowing TONS of FTS.......expect Utah at 115...
Shit happens and its frustrating. I hedged alittle of my Bulls play and didnt my LAC play. Of course you know what happened. So today I minimized my capping and went wth my instincts. Cause this was that little voice inside me saying 6 is still to big to give NJ but I tried to rationalize it...when tends to lead me to comfortable losses. Did this with NO and Chi in round 2 of the playoffs....
Anyway just remember that I wont be around cause I myself will be playing basketball in Brooklyn ...should be back by 10Pm. Second remember is I went with my gut tonite...more then anything.....
ATS :
Boston +9 {2units} ML +350 {1/4unit}
Cavs ML {3units}
Hawks +8.5 {2units} ML +350{1/4unit}
NYK +4.5 {2units}
Pistons _5 {3units}
Kings +2 {3units}
Memphis +13 {2units} ML + 800{1/4unit}
Suns 1st H -6.5 {5units} will play 2nd H if it loses
Suns -11.5 {3units}
Blazers +10.5 {2units} ML +580 {1/4unit}
Blazders +6 1st H {2units}
Totals:
Over 188.5 Boston {1unit}
Under 180.5 Orlando {4units}
Over 199 NYK {1unit}
Over 210.5 SA {3units}
Over 109 Suns 1st H {3units}
Over 179 Houston {3units}
Over 217 Utah {6units} best bet
REASONS:
>In Toronto we have two things I am basing my play. The first is while BOS is shorthanded they had reached the point where IMO home court was worth ZERO. So adjusting that line would give you Raps -9.5/-10 here in my world but I think you must adjust about 2.5 pts for Fords absence and West return. Bottomline is Boston past 8 road games all w/o Pierce and must w/o Wally or even West are 6-2 ATS with the losses by the HOOK!! What I dont like is split action on this game. You would expect a heavy Tor bias here so that is concerning cause perception is everything. The total it oddly moved up since both teams have been playing to the under. However if Boston covers you would have to expect an over. Raps are scoring 95-100 here so leaning OVER...
> Sucks to lose LeBron but still have some capable scorers in Hughes and Zydrunas. Historically Z and Gooden have given Philly fits. I think Cleveland is highly motivated to win here. LeBron seems oblivious anyway. Saying were okay as a team and ignoring there play the past 10 games. You take away LeBron and these teams are even....Donyell Marshall hopefully gets those minutes...no idea on the total.....seems like they are baiting you to take an OVER....
> With ATL just cant trust the magic as big chalk now. They were in a bad spot on Monday and could come out focused here so thats is concerning. Hawks are 4-3 last 7 but 5-0 ATS outside of Charlotte games...Think this has 90-84 written all over it...
> Staying away from NY but would lean towards them . Curry Out which is HUGE and Marybury back in. Have to do from deep which lends to the OVER but I do lean towrad sthe under..just would never play an Under of less then 200 @ MSG cause NY wants to run. So basically NYK and the Over are smart plays here that I am passing on. Screw it went NY
> With DET you have the Pistons streaking who probably should be at least 6.5 here. Wiz arent slumping and have struggled vs quality teams on the road. Lean towards the over but as of now staying away.....could see 105-97.
> Fading Hornets as favs....lean over but not sold.
> The Bucks are NOT the NYK not even close.....NYK would be about 7 or better favs....Bucks were +10 in Sac!!! They will get smoked......
> rockets playing much better on offense of late expect them to get 95 here....scared by the line drop....
> Think Utah takes this game after losing at home to memphis. Just look at past 5 games for both. Utah is playing much more uptempo and getting and allowing TONS of FTS.......expect Utah at 115...
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