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Friday NBA Thoughts

SportsNut

Breaking it down briefly
Here's what I see value in early:

Over 193 -105 Utah & Charlotte +6.5
Under 198.5 -105 Orlando...missed 199.5! & GS +3.5
NYK +5.5
Under 204 NJ
Hawks +2 & Ov 193.5
Under 189 Philly ...Miller and Pierece doubtful ..No Webber or Wally?
Memphis +3 & Over 179.5
Hou +8 & Over 179.5
Minny -5 & Und 199
Tor +4 & Und 189
Wash +10

Will be lurking trying to comment...BOL!
 
I'm curious; do you jump on some/most/all of these lines now expecting them to move the other way with the idea of selling some or all back tomorrow if you have a change of mind?
 
I am still looking at these persay. Do I jump in early?? Yes, but rarely now. More so on totals then sides. I have to really feel the number is a miss and one of those books that always inflates the lines wont offer me the same gameday.......like taking Wiz +4.5 last nite...IMO I cant see how it goes up so I jumped in for say a 4 star play and decided to wait to see if I would keep it at 4 stars or sell some back and keep it at 2 stars..

I have learned over time that 95% of the games would grade the same way using the opening line instead of the closing line.. so all I am doing effectively is rushing a decision ..


So with these I am looking at the totals really for tonite...I know I will play NYK but would rather hope to get 6 or better but Minny probably gets played tonite...maybe Tor....

For the most part with what I am playing selling isnt going to net me anything. So I rather have the time to make an informed decision.

Helpful or did I miss something let me know
 
very helpful, thanks for taking the time to answer. I asked mainly because I got "hooked" in both my big bets last night and, although of course it wasn't the first time it's happened and is all part of the game, it infuriates me no end to lose by the smallest of margins when I know full well that had I acted sooner I could have got a better line that would have made all the difference. Of course this is probably as much an example of knowing when to lay off a bet because the line has lost value. I have much to learn!
 
Generally speaking I think the NBA is the 'tighest' sport. It seems every game is right around the number and that no lead is ever safe. There just arent many easy games. With the NBA I much more interested in getting the best line possible then any other sport and willing to sacrifice vig for it..

Its never cut and dry as to say when a play loses value orgains value cause of a line move...We all have much to learn . Just one of those things were it doesnt take that long to have a working knowledge but you always feel like your tweaking your approach...
 
Austintx_05 said:
Like Charlotte if May starts

Would lean Hornets though

With Utah size May is definetly helpful / needed ...would say Memphis is my weakest side. I happen to like the way they are playing lately but NO has been tough at home and even past 2 in Fla....sort of thinking tomyself can Memphis win aroad game right now...if not you have to pass...Basically all the other sides look like plays...Minny , NYK , Wash & Atl...for sure
 
There is NL at the moment on this game Suns vs Wiz ...

However ifthis reopens at 10 or better I see no reason not to play Washington. The Suns have thoroughly impressed me and I said we shouldnt be fading PHO at this point unless we have good reason. I think we have good reason a Bosh-less Toronto squad was just catching 13.5...is the difference bewteen Wash and Tor simply 3.5 points...?? Personally I would have this line around 7.5 pts...its not like Was is playing poorly and for the most part havent struggled in B to B's despite what the stats say. This is alot like PHO playing GS and barely winning except Wizplay alittle defense.....
 
Wolves -5 -108 line hawking...

We have a quick shot at revenge as Bucks as small hoem dogs extended the home teams run to 5 straight in he series. The Bucks DO NOT play well in minnesota historically and probably are overvalued thanks to spanking Miami @ home. While Minny is OFF an embarrassing 4th Q collapse to LAL.
 
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Yeah , I saw your post today...hang tough we(the forum) will do our best to entertain you and provide you with an escape...and hopefully make it a great Holiday Weekend with some extra dough in your pocket/account(s) !

I actually like this card....need to shake the bad break / bad decision making rut this week....had two chances to play DET at nice payouts and had the opp to correct a mistake with u 93 2nd H....but could DET have scored 10 pts in the final 5 minutes to get me to 91!
 
Hornets need a win, I like it at 3 or better.

That Wash line will be interesting because I would normally like the spot Wash would be in, but since the postponed game in Denver, Phx has had time to rest. All depends on the line. I think it opens @ 8.
 
Over 193.5 -119 Atl & Indiana ....played....

All you have to do is look at the ppg allowed for both recently...
 
Leans

Sides

Bobcats +6.5 -105 {May & Knight}
Warriors +3.5 -102 { Ellis , Nelson - Q , Turkoglu -D}
NYK +5.5 +100
Hawks +2 -102
Wolves -5 -108(Early Best Bet)
Grizz +3 -105
Rockets +8 -108
Raptors +4 -106
Wiz +10 ?
Bos -1.5 -111

Totals
Over 193 -105 Utah
Under 198.5 -110 Orlando
Under 204 -110 NJ
Over 193.5 -119 Indy
Under 189 -105 Philly
Over 179.5 -110 Memphis
Over 181 -105 Houston
Under 189 -105 Portland
Under 199 -110 Minnesota

Since I simply have no interest of late in writing about games please fireaway with comments..

Basically black is a lean , blue is strong lean basically a play and bold is played!
 
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Well I layed off Wash/Sac game tonight, hoping Wash gives a max effort tonight, because I think Phoenix is in a good spot tommorrow.
 
BTW - I think that Pacers -2 is a trap. Talked with BAR for a sec on that game, he agrees although Indy has been hot lately. Utah/Indy on a neutral court Utah -3.5? ...not sure...
 
I look at like this there is no such things as TRAPS...just lines that appear better / worse then they are.( so key is understanding lines for everyone)....that was one of my points the other day...people get wrapped up in the wrong things(not saying you)...books want your money on bad lines if possible, its not a trap its the nature of the business.know the lines and you wont be caught.....they want to make you feel like you are getting something for nothing or overpaying for something that seems cheap....basically all you have to do is this is ATL winning this game?? based on the past 2 they cant win games with big leads so taking them in a position where they need to win is risky...Pacers barely beat Philly and had dropped 5 straight away...history of poor play in ATL...I think it should be closer to a PK...cause Indy on the road is worse the Utah on the road...not crazy about that game though..see how it moves before I jump but not a fan of Indy!

Utah / Indy neutral court...yeah -3 / -3.5 is about right...has to be Utah was +1.5 @ Indy and that was soft...that alone said Utah -2 on a neutral court.....

This was probably the 1st meaningful thing I wrote all day! Also just like traps REST is so overrated! Any athlete worth a darn gets an adrenaline rush when the game tips and fatigue is non-existant......I am 32 , play a ton of basketball in pretty good shape( would think NBA guys are in better) and many a time I play back to back full court games( 20 minute halves) with no subs in the same nite...once that round orange thing comes near me there is no sense of fatigue...playing 40 minutes of basketball generally isnt going to wear someone down to the point it affects performance...at times like Wiz off that OT win in LAL...but generally speaking its a non-issue...more important is fav or dog IMO..are they favored and expected to win or dogged and need to compete?? Unless Wash a game like LAL I wouldnt be scared off...Suns admitted to a poor pratice due to fatigue on Tuesday and crusied on Wed..
 
thecakeoff said:
i dont like the NYK play

That lines to fat for my liking...Bulls barely won in ATL & NO...I really dont buy the depth arguement...NY with some lucky wins will build momentum at some point... should be closer to -3 IMO...

Who knows last 3 days I made alot of bad decisions...
 
Also I am exhausted , burned out , tired and kranky.....So if ever sound like an ass tell me to go F--K myself...........lol ..but I meant that!
 
I agree on the trap bit. Maybe to the avg bettor, they see Indy -2 and thinks its a slam dunk. I am siding with Atlanta as I believe they can win this game. Hopefully the line moves up.
 
Austintx_05 said:
I agree on the trap bit. Maybe to the avg bettor, they see Indy -2 and thinks its a slam dunk. I am siding with Atlanta as I believe they can win this game. Hopefully the line moves up.

I think alot of times we all (myself certainly included) get wrapped up in everything but first handicapping the game and figuring out what a fair line is....instead we fill our heads with excuses to not do something....

I definetly believe they can win that game but there recent struggles to close out Chi & Utah are concerning...for me its ATL or pass so yeah I am hoping it heads up... I really would have this game @ PKem..
 
SportsNut said:
I think alot of times we all (myself certainly included) get wrapped up in everything but first handicapping the game and figuring out what a fair line is....instead we fill our heads with excuses to not do something....

I definetly believe they can win that game but there recent struggles to close out Chi & Utah are concerning...for me its ATL or pass so yeah I am hoping it heads up... I really would have this game @ PKem..

I think Utah & Chicago are much better defensively than what Indy will present themselves to be, especially given that this game is a road game for the Pacers.
 
Supersav said:
I like Wash ML and +10

I can see a case made for Wash +10, but watching this Kkings game I think Wiz are exerting a lot of energy to come from behind here. Phx rested after the ppnd game in Denver...I like Phx at home.
 
Good point with the defenses both Chi & Utah much more capable of shutting down a team. My only counter would be since I didnt see the games was it the defense or just ATL..??

I know Wash has a short rotation and logged heavy minutes but sold on the fatigue factor...nice comeback win the momentum should carry over tmrw. Suns rested 2 days but they still were involved in a brutal stretch...Role is more imporant then minutes...like Wash lasttime laying the egg in Denver..they were just flat and favored...down 20 at one point they cut it to 2pts...if they were tired they wouldnt go a huge 2nd Half run would they??? They would have mailed it in ...thats why fatigue is a factor but whne your talking 10 pts in almost irrelevant IMO...
 
SportsNut said:
Also love the powder blue Sirius avatar

:smiley_acbe:

Funny you mention it. I love my Sirius radio, just wish they had MLB. Can't get through the day without it.
 
Would forget over in Spurs Houston. Houston has gone under that number in 9 of last 20. Both teams play the next day and based on team histories that is a High total. Spurs have had a nice time playing games with the kids now would expect a serious shift as they take Bonzi and Yao seriously. Real question for me is which way it moves as I want some money on the under. Will it go up or down?
 
Why do you like Minny? It seems to me Minny is starting to really play bad. Its pretty much KG vs the world. Im not sayin Milwaukee wins SU, but i'll take 5.5
 
SportsNut said:
Good point with the defenses both Chi & Utah much more capable of shutting down a team. My only counter would be since I didnt see the games was it the defense or just ATL..??

I know Wash has a short rotation and logged heavy minutes but sold on the fatigue factor...nice comeback win the momentum should carry over tmrw. Suns rested 2 days but they still were involved in a brutal stretch...Role is more imporant then minutes...like Wash lasttime laying the egg in Denver..they were just flat and favored...down 20 at one point they cut it to 2pts...if they were tired they wouldnt go a huge 2nd Half run would they??? They would have mailed it in ...thats why fatigue is a factor but whne your talking 10 pts in almost irrelevant IMO...

Unforunately, I did not watch the Utah/Atl game, but seeing how the Jazz outscored the Hawks 40-13 in the 4th, I would definately see that as some sort of defense being played. But again I didn't watch the game. Especially with teams like Utah who rebound so much better, its why I layed off of the game and thank God I did. If I can get 3.5 or better I will play Atlanta.

As for the Wiz, I don't like the spot they are in tommorrow. They fell to a 10 point deficit early in Sacramento, but the Kings were unable to keep up in the 2nd Half. I see Phoenix as a team that will come out after 2 days rest and put it to Washington early. Now at 10 I probably won't touch, because with Phx there is always a backdoor opportunity in the 4th with the way they play. Wiz 3 in 5 days, not that big of a factor to me, but Suns with 2 days rest, red hot winning 15 in a row and with the amount of effort I saw in the Wiz tonight, I wonder if they get down early if they will be able to climb back.

Great thread you got here Nut. :shake:
 
Rockets/Spurs O/U 181

I always lean under on this matchup. Not sure f I will bet the Under cause Spurs have been scoring a lot lately, but the without TMac, and the half court offense of Houston I just see this being a very slow paced game.
 
Yeah the one thing I know about the Utah / Atl game was while the 4th was 40-13 Utah ...I believe ATL won the 3rd Q by 20pts...I know for sure they were up 1 at half..My point was did everything just click in the 3rd for Atl and go wrong for Utah then in the 4th vice versa happened..??Everything went right for Utah and everything that could go wrong did for ATL...sort of an evening out of the universe..??

I highly doubt it cracks 2.5 maybe some books will offer 3 cause they rob there customers...which is okay cause those books are helpful for us dogs players...

I hear ya with Wash but I just have a different approach. You citing fatigue as a factor and I dont think its warranted(I oculd be wrong obviously). If they can play that OT classic in LAL and then come back from a 30 pt defecit in Denver the next nite which granted was shorthanded then I dont see fatigue as an issue...coming off a normal game which was on 2 days rest....playing ball helps players find a groove and Wash found it 2nd Half IMO...

You guys are making the thread! ...GL tmrw!

With Minny / Milw. Will first you always have the short revenge factor. Second you have a home orientated series and if your taking the pts you should expect it to at worst be a one possession game in the final minute...Third is the line...okay Minny is in a mini slump but it was one BAD quarter versus LAL...they are the same price as the Lakers...that makes no sense...LA is definetly better then Milw and the line is the same...also you had Minny laying 2 in Milw this weekend...-2 would mean somewhere along the lines 0f -8...now since they lost I had it at -6.5.....

Also Garnett's disgust with the Laker game should have him highly motivated...and really Wolves are just not finishing more then anything else...they had a big lead on SA , they lead at half in MILW and I like that they shot 52 % away in that game and had the lead vs LAL to start the 4th Q...so I wouldnt say they are fading...

Bucks just 4-10 on the road......

if you are waiting on a move I would definetly say it only goes up....look at what Hous is allowing defensively already and SA scoring at home...I fucked up the Cle total tonite cause I acted way to early...if I look at that game and see 185...a 5 pt move I stay away but I had looked it early when it was 181...
 
I am really not taking past history into account with Houston and SA cause I feel like SA is sort of doing what DET did last year and open up the offense...

With NO & Memphis...basically looking at what Grizz have been allowing on the road (95 ppg range) , looking how there offense has improved with Gasol slowly rounding into form and looking at the recent NO home games which has seen a faster pace with Butler and Paul taking over the scoring...
 
With Gasol the OVER is 4-0 . Past 9 games for NO the only team to score less the 89 was ORL's 86 and that is ORL and really a slow 4th quarter..so if Memphis got 89 you would expect the score to break the 180's..

Think Mem away 96 , 98 ,98 , 100 , 105 and 105....aslo scored at least 90...(Mem 49% shooting allowed and above 50% past 5 games)

basically been riding these low MEM totals and just riding the train as I continue to think these games will worst play in the 180's....
 
Not listing a definite play but seriously looking at over first quarter in Bobcats as its a little hard right now seeing it go under 50 with that 193 total.
 
You have a great feel for Quarter plays and charlotte tends to be a 1st half team sounds logical...curious to see how SA / Hou total moves though...
 
Nut - reagrding the Wiz its not so much the fatigue of a 3 in 5, but more so of the effort they put out once down by DD. I think if that scenario happens again the Wiz will feel as if they are in this same spot again and they might feel complacent as if they just did this last night. However, Phx is a much better team than Sac is and Phx will pour it on, which at times makes you feel like your in "quicksand" and sinking fast.
 
Wash/Phx O/U 228 - Can you take anything but the Under in this game?
 
SportsNut said:
With Gasol the OVER is 4-0 . Past 9 games for NO the only team to score less the 89 was ORL's 86 and that is ORL and really a slow 4th quarter..so if Memphis got 89 you would expect the score to break the 180's..

Think Mem away 96 , 98 ,98 , 100 , 105 and 105....aslo scored at least 90...(Mem 49% shooting allowed and above 50% past 5 games)

basically been riding these low MEM totals and just riding the train as I continue to think these games will worst play in the 180's....

Now this is what I really like here, you have a strong case here bro, the line being set at 180 surely gives us a lot of cushion I think, if you look New Orleans performances lately you'll notice that apart from being wiped away by SA and Dallas (scoring 79 and 77 respectively), which are both top notch teams, they've managed 99 against Miami, 95 against Cleveland, 105 v Lakers and 108 v Chicago, looking at these numbers you might say they're a high scoring team that should never have the total set at 180.


However, their erratic performances (no wonder they're unstabile, considering all the injuries), have pretty much made them unpredictable, it's a coin toss I think, to determine which NOH team will appear on the court, is it going to be a slow paced milk-the-clock-until-you-die team or a rather competitive bunch trying to outscore the opponent. I think the bookies might be a bit puzzled on the line, and decided to go for some sort of a compromise. And here's my take why they might be puzzled: Memphis games average 189 points this season, (almost 10 over the tonight's line) but the general perception of Fratello's team(s) is leaning towards a defensive mindset. Perhaps, but as you said, Memphis over is 4:0 since the return of Gasol, and Fratello is probably changing his approach a bit to shake up the team and make NBA's worst 6-20 record a tad better. That being said, the fact that they almost beat the Spurs by erasing a 22 point deficit says enough about their small uptrend, scoring 134 against the Sonics (115 in regular time) has probably sparked the offense, with Alexander Johnson, Pau Gasol who has returned from injury, Mike Miller, Mighty Mouse Stoudamire at PG and a couple of respectable back ups in Warrick, Atkins and E.Jones they look like a solid team again, surely not worthy last place in the conference, despite the fact they still have a banged up roster.

Last 10 games (New Orleans-Memphis): 87:79, 107:102, 73:89, 95:86, 91:88, 82:88, 76:84, 96:85, 94:89, 92:97.

O/U (180) is 5-5. But the fact Memphis have recently scored 98, 115 (regular time), 90, 88, should have this one leaning towards the over. I can't warrant that New Orleans will come out playing r'n'g, since they don't have the weapons for such style, but even with average paced basketball this number could easily be exceeded.

4 units on the over is my call, leaning towards the Grizzlies ML as well.
 
I have some catching up to do responding and updating what I played...

With regards to the Minny game my belief is this how can you figure out exactly who the public is on especially so early?? Even now SI had 1500 bets listed on the game so that 65% you think would accurately reflect which is side is so called public ?? Where as logically I would think Milw just beat Minny , they whipped Miami and Minny is off a couple of BAD losses....why would the Public be backing Minny?? To me at the end of the day I would think the "public" vettor would think the pts look attractive...Which gets me back to there really is no absolutes in this public debate...its all guess work..GL...your not being negative...I just dont like to see people make a bet simply based on fading the so called public unless that is your only tool in capping...Last nite alot of the Viking backers saying the squares this and the sqaures that(not soley at this site)....if your guessing on a game by fading the so calle public...your a SQUARE....a Sharp bettor knows why there is value in Minny....and at some point you will go a bad run...
 
Sportsnut,
great evaluation on the Minny game. IMO, public perception is going to back Mil here. The thought is Mil. just throttled Miami and Minn scored 7 points in the 4th quarter and lost to LAL. That right there has the public thinking, Mil has to cash here. but in reality and you said it perfect, this is a great spot to back Minn. Hey, they may not win but you have a 50% chance of capping it right!!!! Nice pick.
 
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