SportsNut said:
With Gasol the OVER is 4-0 . Past 9 games for NO the only team to score less the 89 was ORL's 86 and that is ORL and really a slow 4th quarter..so if Memphis got 89 you would expect the score to break the 180's..
Think Mem away 96 , 98 ,98 , 100 , 105 and 105....aslo scored at least 90...(Mem 49% shooting allowed and above 50% past 5 games)
basically been riding these low MEM totals and just riding the train as I continue to think these games will worst play in the 180's....
Now this is what I really like here, you have a strong case here bro, the line being set at 180 surely gives us a lot of cushion I think, if you look New Orleans performances lately you'll notice that apart from being wiped away by SA and Dallas (scoring 79 and 77 respectively), which are both top notch teams, they've managed 99 against Miami, 95 against Cleveland, 105 v Lakers and 108 v Chicago, looking at these numbers you might say they're a high scoring team that should never have the total set at 180.
However, their erratic performances (no wonder they're unstabile, considering all the injuries), have pretty much made them unpredictable, it's a coin toss I think, to determine which NOH team will appear on the court, is it going to be a slow paced milk-the-clock-until-you-die team or a rather competitive bunch trying to outscore the opponent. I think the bookies might be a bit puzzled on the line, and decided to go for some sort of a compromise. And here's my take why they might be puzzled: Memphis games average 189 points this season, (almost 10 over the tonight's line) but the general perception of Fratello's team(s) is leaning towards a defensive mindset. Perhaps, but as you said, Memphis over is 4:0 since the return of Gasol, and Fratello is probably changing his approach a bit to shake up the team and make NBA's worst 6-20 record a tad better. That being said, the fact that they almost beat the Spurs by erasing a 22 point deficit says enough about their small uptrend, scoring 134 against the Sonics (115 in regular time) has probably sparked the offense, with Alexander Johnson, Pau Gasol who has returned from injury, Mike Miller, Mighty Mouse Stoudamire at PG and a couple of respectable back ups in Warrick, Atkins and E.Jones they look like a solid team again, surely not worthy last place in the conference, despite the fact they still have a banged up roster.
Last 10 games (New Orleans-Memphis): 87:79, 107:102, 73:89, 95:86, 91:88, 82:88, 76:84, 96:85, 94:89, 92:97.
O/U (180) is 5-5. But the fact Memphis have recently scored 98, 115 (regular time), 90, 88, should have this one leaning towards the over. I can't warrant that New Orleans will come out playing r'n'g, since they don't have the weapons for such style, but even with average paced basketball this number could easily be exceeded.
4 units on the over is my call, leaning towards the Grizzlies ML as well.
