Friday Discussion

Marlo

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<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#800000 height=20><TD width=225>Friday, January 23, 2009</TD><TD width=75 bgColor=#ffffff>Game/2ndH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stH</TD><TD align=middle width=55>1stQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>2ndQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>3rdQ</TD><TD align=middle width=55>4thQ</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#003366 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>#</TD><TD width=200>Team Name </TD><TD align=right width=95>Spread </TD><TD align=middle width=95>Total</TD><TD align=middle width=55>MoneyLn</TD><TD align=right width=85>T1 Total </TD><TD align=right width=85>T2 Total </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>851</TD><TD width=180>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-3</TD><TD align=middle width=85>199</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>852</TD><TD width=180>Charlotte Bobcats</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm (ESPN) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>853</TD><TD width=180>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>854</TD><TD width=180>Detroit Pistons</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-4</TD><TD align=middle width=85>182</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>855</TD><TD width=180>Houston Rockets</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>856</TD><TD width=180>Indiana Pacers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>pk</TD><TD align=middle width=85>210½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>857</TD><TD width=180>Milwaukee Bucks</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>858</TD><TD width=180>Atlanta Hawks</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-4</TD><TD align=middle width=85>203</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>859</TD><TD width=180>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>860</TD><TD width=180>New York Knicks</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>202</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>861</TD><TD width=180>New Orleans Hornets</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2</TD><TD align=middle width=85>194</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>862</TD><TD width=180>Minnesota Timberwolves</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>10:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>867</TD><TD width=180>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-7½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>215</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>868</TD><TD width=180>Golden State Warriors</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>10:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>869</TD><TD width=180>Oklahoma City Thunder</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>194½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>870</TD><TD width=180>Los Angeles Clippers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
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Just copying my thoughts from my thread:

Phoenix/Charlotte

As Killa says this a gut check game for the Suns. They certainly would be digging themselves a hole by going 1-3 to start the trip. Looking at the Suns since they made the trade with Charlotte they are 4-5 SU on the road with and 8 point win over OKC, 12 point win over Mem, 6 point win over LAC, and a 4 point win over Toronto. None of those teams were playing as good as Charlotte is when the Suns played them. Thunder would be the closest candidate and they shot 53% vs the Suns in their 8 point loss. Only win that the Suns have had in their last 13 games that I can be impressed with was a blowout of Dallas. Amare isn't happy with his touches and nobody is playing a lick of defense. 9 games now since they've held anybody below 100 points.

Charlotte on the other hand has been more than competitive playing at home. Blowout win over Memphis (which I was on the wrong side of), 2 point loss to the Spurs in a game that they dominated the 2nd half, 5 point OT win over Portland, 8 point win over Boston in OT, and a 10 point win vs MLW. Broadway Joe called this out a week or so ago about the Cats being undervalued at home and he's 100% right. Only 3 of their 17 home games since Thanksgiving have been decided by more than 5 points and one of those went to OT while another was the Cavs during their covering streak and the third being a 7 point loss to GSW. Just an extremely tough group to beat convincingly on their home court. This is their last home game for two weeks as they head out on a 5 game WC road trip.

Will be hoping for the line to move up to 4/4.5+ and I'll be playing the Cats. Likely play at 3.5 as well. Think this is a last possession game at worst.

Dallas/Detroit

I think Dallas is the tonic to end Detroit's rather sizable Under streak.

I think BetCrimes is dead on. Probably another way to play Dallas in fact. Let's be honest the Mavericks aren't going to win this game with their stellar D. Looking at some of the teams that have managed to rack up 100 points on Dallas recently one wonders if they are even sending 5 guys back to play D. When Eric Gordon and Charlie V are both clearing 30 on your D it's time to scratch your head. One big worry is the fact that MLW dropped 133 in what was a spectacular performance. Still only asking either team to reach 95 in this one. Pistons have been destroying bad offenses, but Indy, Denver, NO and Utah have all reached the 90 point mark in reg. during the Pistons last 8 games with the Thunder hitting 89. Appreciate BC pointing this out as it's probably a safer way to play Dallas as I don't see how they could cover and have this one go under. May bet this tonight as I have no idea where this line will head, but I can't really see this one drop much as much as I could see it rise to 185 or so.

Definite lean over 182.

Houston @ Indy

Keeping a close eye on Artest as he and McGrady practiced on Thursday. McGrady supposedly has already been ruled out, but you never know with Artest. He's a warrior and if they'll let him play he will. McGrady on the other hand won't play until he gets his proper manicure and wax job.

Indy probably undervalued here as they've 6 of 8 while the Rockets have won 6 of 7. Looking deeper the Pacers have to be a bit road weary playing 7 of 9 on the road against extremely stiff competition (den, pho, lal, gsw, utah, noh, sas). BRUTAL. Two home games against DET and TOR were both victories. Matter of fact they've won their last 3 home games and that's the only 3 home games they've played in January. Still impressed with some of their road losses as they either won or lost by a possession in 4 of their 7 road games against some serious competition. When Houston rolls into Indy the Pacers aren't going to be overly impressed by the level of competition especially when the Rockets are starting Scola, Battier, Alston and Wafer.

Houston has impressed lately beating the jazz, nuggets and heat at home along with the Celtics on the road. A bit tough for me to gauge in all honesty. Is this the team that lost to Washington at home and then Toronto on the road 3 days later or the team that won @ Boston. I'd have to dive in deeper to uncover the answer. This team desperately needs to trade McGrady. Maybe they could swap him for Howard or something. Probably a lateral move on both teams part. Anyways back to the game...

With Artest and McGrady practicing with the team I think it'll provide just enough of a distraction to take away the positive momentum that the Rockets have built. Interesting road trip that they are embarking on. 3-0 or 0-3 are possible. I'll take another very competitive team at home catching points. Just like the Cats I'll hope the line moves for the road team and I'd love to have the Pacers at +2.5, but will take them even at -1.

Bucks/Hawks

Already played the Hawks at -4. Faded the Bucks last time out and they burned me to the tune of 133 points. Last time they scored 125+ they followed it up with 92 points against the Clippers. Love the idea of the Bucks getting a bit happy with themselves as their defense has still been putrid as of late. Hawks have nothing to get excited about on the defensive end either w/out Horford/Williams, but two days of rest should do them well and no Bogut is also a plus. Certainly see the Hawks winning this one SU, but do worry about laying 4 points. Would advise caution at 5 and above.

Memphis/New York

Another play with the Grizzlies at +6.5. Just waiting for the ML to play the rest. Iavoroni firing came as a bit of a surprise to me. I guess the ownership does care about winning. Would have preferred they waited a day as it might have awakened the Knicks to the fact that they weren't actually playing the Sixers yet. Still find this as a huge sandwich spot for the Knicks. You know they get up to play the Suns and they did pulling off the upset. Day off and then they host Memphis who completely sucks before traveling to Philly for a game on Saturday. Well they certainly have Philly marked as they just lost to them at home by 10 this week. Matter of fact it's the only loss the Knicks have had in their last 5 home games. Knicks have won 3 in a row once all year during the first week of the season and this is a classic head scratcher spot. It's also a two game chase play for me on the Grizz ML with the first bet being a half unit and this game also being a half unit ML play, but also a full unit on the spread.

NOLA/MINNY

This one could be interesting. Marvin Ely on Al Jefferson with no bench help? Could be fun to watch. Plenty of people lost on Jersey the other night playing against the Hornets injuries but the main problem was that the Nets have NOBODY inside to take advantage of those injuries. Al Jefferson and Ryan Gomes can. The question is can Telfair do enough to slow down CP3. They'd be smart to let him score all he wants while limiting Peja open looks, but I'm not the coach. I do expect the Twolves, winners of 9/10 ATS, to pull out the SU victory here. They've won 4/5 SU at home only getting beat by Wade in a heartbreaker. I do worry that Paul could pull the same schenanigans but I'll take my chances that he's missing enough pieces around him.

Not completely sold, but it's Minny or nothing for me. If a ML was available right now I'd likely play it. Worried that it'll be a PK by the time I have a chance to hit it.

Toronto/Chicago

:whip: No thanks unless the Bulls are favored by more than 5 points. Neither team should be favored by more than a possession here.

Spurs/Nets

One of the last two home games for San Antonio before the ASG. They have games at LAL, UTA, and PHX before returning home to play the Hornets before heading back out to the road to finish off the first half of the season. Impossible for me to see them losing this game based on that alone. Of course if I could just pick them to win and not pay -280 then this shit would be easy, but no such luck. They are off of two days rest and have a nice day off, game, day off stretch coming up so they shouldn't be holding back much at all. Really expecting a strong 2nd half from the Spurs as much as anything. Off of 2 days rest the Spurs have been anything but spectacular and a Nets 1st quarter bet is probably warranted here.

Lean Nets 1st quarter and a 2nd half Spurs play.

Cavs/Warriors

Monta Ellis is going to play 20-30 mins tomorrow and that leaves me questioning a Warriors bet as it will probably take some time for the team to acclimate to him in the lineup. Maybe a 2nd half Warriors bet, but I don't really know. Need to read up and see how much he's been practicing with the team. Moderate interest in a 1st quarter over bet. Need to know Biedrins status as well for this one. Hard for me to think that the Cavs aren't at least peeking towards playing @Utah.

Lean 1st quarter over and the Warriors but more so on the 1st quarter play.

Thunder/Clippers
Thunder as road chalk? Not likely, but it's just as likely that I'd play the Clipper developmental team under any circumstances. Check out the Raptors/Bulls w/up for my thoughts on this one.
 
HOU is 1-10 ATS off their last 11 ATS wins, playing Firday off an ATS win.

HOU is 2-0 to Over on the road vs the East w/out Artest.

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IND is 6-1 to Over at home vs the West this season.

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NOR is 0-7 ATS off their last 7 ATS wins, playing Firday off an ATS win.

NOR is 3-5 SU & 2-6 ATS off 3 consecutive SU wins this season.

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MIN is 1-4 ATS this season playing a home game off consecutive road games.

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PHX 4-12-1 their last 17 games, 3-7 ATS their last 10 road games. To continue to sound like a broken record, these guys have blown goats since Bell & Diaw were shipped.

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CHA is 5-0 ATS their last 5 home games, and have a winning SU record since Bell & Diaw joined the team (10-9 SU)

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GDS is 7-0 to Over the last 7 games both S.Jackson & C.Maggette have played in (& 13-2 to Over the last 15 they both played in), and 8-2 to Over at home vs Eastern teams.

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CLE is 2-5 ATS their last 7 road games.
 
Played Knicks minus 6. Took some time on this as the firing bothered me but the new coach angle normally kicks in with the NEW COACH. We will see him in 3 games. This is now. Knicks 14-10 ats on 1 days rest which is their best. Situation is simple. The next day they will play their 13th game without 2 days off against the 66ers. It will also be their 6th game in 9 days. That will be very hard against a surging team. They then face Houston and then Atlanta at home still on 1 days rest. They really, really need to win this game. The Grizz are 4-8 ats this year revenging a home loss. The Knicks are 7-3 ats this year after an upset win. I laid 6 points with a team that is trying very hard to win and do well for their coach and bet against a team that is 1-13 su last 14 on the road with 3 ats covers in those games. A team that has 2 wins in their last 17 games and will be playing at home the next day in a very possible win vs the Nets.
 
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damn tuck, i played mem +6. i think they game will stay competitive throughout and maybe a knicks win by 3-4 points, so basically a backdoor cover. i just don't like the respect mem is getting and the situation knicks are in. i think they're definitely looking for revenge over phily and over looking this game
 
Knicks are god-awful in these spots. This reminds me of that home game vs. a slumping Milwaukee team a few weeks back, when many on here laid the 4 or 5 and they got blown the fuck out. Read JPicks on this game. Not saying Knicks won't get it done, but relying on them in games like this is foolish. Every time you think they're starting to click, they make sure to prove you wrong by playing a dud vs. a shitty team.
 
Looking via data base I see no indication that the spread will matter. Memphis as an underdog of 6 or less is 9-11 ats and 9-11 su. They only covered if they won and this season on the road in that situation they are 0-5. Would never take the points, if you like that side just play it money line and go for a score.
Have played GS plus 7 . Very rarely buy points but I bought this up because the spot just looked so good. That may be a big mistake as there is no indication that points in this range have had any utility with Cleveland on the road. Will be adding some ml later after referee info hopefully. In my write up on OKC vs GS 2 days ago I mentioned this match up and why it was a real look a head to GS. In their games at home vs Indian and Atlanta they out rebounded their opposition by 8 and 3 rebounds. Vs OKC 32-39. They mailed the game in. Ats at home after a loss they are 7-2. They want this game badly. LeBron is playing hurt after a great game. Cleveland wants the game badly as well as they know what they will see in Utah
Biedrins is listed as probable by Don Best. By the way, J is one of the very small minority of people who actually does write ups. :tiphat: I always read his stuff. Some times we disagree.
 
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Here's a question. What is going on in the Pacer total today going down? one step further. What happened in the Spurs game with the Pacers. The Pacers are always hard to understand but recently more than before.
 
Here's a question. What is going on in the Pacer total today going down? one step further. What happened in the Spurs game with the Pacers. The Pacers are always hard to understand but recently more than before.


TJ Ford. He is coming off the bench and not happy, so he is looking to re-establish himself as the starter by looking for "his".
 
BC posted some stats about houston vs the east and indy's games going over.

i like the over and i dont think tj looking for his is a bad thing, not like jack had a lot of assists anyway
 
Half unit increase in Knicks at 5,5 at 5d. referees are the game are 56-27 for the home team. wager line has the Knicks as the biggest home fav and going back through the 16th of this month the home team in this spot has been pure money.
The Knicks have won 17 games this year and covered the spread in 16 of them. the one time they did not cover the spread was at home against the Bobcats who with a road ats mark of 11-6 are one of the best road teams in the NBA.
 
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Regarding the Suns game. I doubt you can put this Suns team together again. They are pitiful but have played them minus 2 first half as that is what the chumps understand. Duh Lead at Half time is Good. ML s I have seen are a joke 58 cents for a 4 point spread!! Maybe best action is simply a second half bet on the Bobcats. Still thinking here.
 
Tuck I follow suns--

Nash is seriously slowing down bigtime--- Amare has good games vs average teams but does nothing vs Spurs, Boston, Lakers, any good defensive teams shut him down.

Phoenix takes way too many jumpers, I never thought i would say this but SHAQ is actually good for them, he provides an inside presence---

Barnes and Richardson are not a good fit because they are run and gunners, and PORTER does not coach the run and gun, NASH is tired and old and weak, he never fast breaks anymore--

This Suns team would be a contendor with a good point guard, NASH is seriously washed up due to his BACK injury, not to mention he cant guard anyone either-

RONDO really showed me that NASH is done in this league- He used to be able to score on offense and dominate offensively, but he cannot do that anymore-

BARBOSA is all over the place--

Suns have to turn in to the old Golden state- They have the players to run, but their current team is a Chemistry nightmare--

Barnes and RIchardson 2 runnign players-
ONEAL--- INSIDE HALFCOURT PLAYER-
Stodamire- Running player- cant do much in halfcourt cause Shaq is #1 option-
HIll- Versatile can play both
Barbosa- Running player-
NASH- Cannot run anymore, half court he is too small and gets out muscled--

Thats the problem with SUNS, if they had a run and gun point guard they can be great
 
They are disgusting. Simple fact. First half is just because they win them. check the game logs for them as a road favorite. Bobcats are the better team with the better coach. That is very clear. Just an issue of the best way to get money. And second half bets against the Suns with a lead are usually profitable. Most importantly in this game I really want to see 1 half before putting any real money at risk.
On the topic of Amare, he has been a lazy jerk this year. If the suns had traded him for Garnett they would be vastly improved. Those things said you are not being factual again. this year against the Lakers he has had 2 games. 8 boards and 11 with an efficient 21 and a poor 21. Not bad production. Last year he faced Boston twice and twice he had very strong games with 28 and 32 points. I think 6 rebounds each time. He has the ability. His problem is mental
 
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Simply see no legitimate reason for not playing Minn pick. Hornets have a great point guard but the team is without key players and in general has feasted on the weak. No real reason to class Minn as weak now and getting them off a loss and operating with major revenge seems fair investment material. The losses to Miami and Utah are actually pluses. They got a chance to train against good opposition and develop. Books in this situation HAD to start NO as the favorite so do not see this as a line move fade.
 
Simply see no legitimate reason for not playing Minn pick. Hornets have a great point guard but the team is without key players and in general has feasted on the weak. No real reason to class Minn as weak now and getting them off a loss and operating with major revenge seems fair investment material. The losses to Miami and Utah are actually pluses. They got a chance to train against good opposition and develop. Books in this situation HAD to start NO as the favorite so do not see this as a line move fade.

Couldn't agree more especially with the last sentence.
 
Gonna pound Phx/Cats OVER 200

Suns road numbers OVER are sick and I think Charlotte can score on them.

Cats +4 as well.
 
Small bet like Suns first half both are for .5 a unit. Detroit minus 3.5. Why?
These are the last 2 times Iverson has played Dallas
11 of 21 6 of 6 31 points
12 of 19 11-13 35 points
Detroit after a win at home is 8-3 su
Not entirely sure why but Dallas and Detroit have been very unfriendly teams and the last game none of the older players for Detroit did much of anything but sit back and wait. Which brings up the question For what? Maybe Dallas. dallas on the road this year on Friday is 0-5 su and 1 and 4 ats. Last 10 on the road on Friday they are 2-8 su and 4-6 ats. Detroit laying 4 or less is 7-3 su and ats. At home on Friday they are 7-3 but poor covering. Maybe a Spurs and Detroit ml parlay is better. Will do that for half the bet.
 
The Phoenix Bums - 13 pts in the 1st period.

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

no offense intended to any Bums backers.
 
The Phoenix Bums - 13 pts in the 1st period.

:36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6::36_11_6:

no offense intended to any Bums backers.

Could have been worse if not for a Barnes 3 at the buzzer. Might be time to bump Redbearde's thread again.
 
any thoughts on the Clippers game ?

if clippers win su I have a parlay .25 units to win over 10 units on the Cards ML for the superbowl.
 
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