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Marlo

Marlo

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<TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>701</TD><TD width=180>Los Angeles Lakers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>702</TD><TD width=180>Orlando Magic</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-1½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>213</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>703</TD><TD width=180>Los Angeles Clippers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>704</TD><TD width=180>Toronto Raptors</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-10</TD><TD align=middle width=85>194½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>707</TD><TD width=180>San Antonio Spurs</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>185</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>708</TD><TD width=180>New York Knicks</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>7:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>709</TD><TD width=180>Cleveland Cavaliers</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>710</TD><TD width=180>Atlanta Hawks</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-2</TD><TD align=middle width=85>186½</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:05 pm (ESPN) </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>713</TD><TD width=180>Boston Celtics</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-6½</TD><TD align=middle width=85>189</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>714</TD><TD width=180>Minnesota Timberwolves</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>8:35 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>715</TD><TD width=180>Memphis Grizzlies</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>716</TD><TD width=180>Dallas Mavericks</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-13</TD><TD align=middle width=85>200</TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR bgColor=#363636><TD width="100%"><SMALL>9:05 pm </SMALL></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE borderColor=#000000 cellSpacing=0 width="98%" bgColor=#000000 border=0><TBODY><TR><TD align=middle width=35>717</TD><TD width=180>Seattle Supersonics</TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD align=middle width=85></TD><TD width=45></TD><TD width=85></TD><TD width=85></TD></TR><TR><TD align=middle width=35>718</TD><TD width=180>Phoenix Suns</TD><TD align=middle width=85>-14</TD><TD align=middle width=85>220</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>
 
hawks_logo.jpg
 
picks, why wouldn't you think tonight's game would be the game for the cavs? this is their little letdown sandwich; they have hawks revenge....
 
i am really interested in the washington line, i may add a 1stQ over on the washington game as both teams come out firing but slow down significantly in the 2nd.
 
What revenge? Sure ATL beat them last time but they were the home team and favored. No revenge there. CLE beat them at home earlier in the year. Tonight will be the Cavs 2 game in 5 days. Tomorrow will be their 3 game in 4 days. After a big victory over BOS and then playing a WC upper tier team I don't belive the Cavs are going to put a ton into the Hawks game. It's the 2nd of a 4/5 with a home meeting with Denver and a roadie at Orlando to follow the day off. After the 4/5 is done they have a days rest followed by a home game against the Spurs. So:

BOS
OFF
@HOU
@ATL
OFF
DEN
@ORL
OFF
SAN

If I'm the Cavs I'm excited to play 2 of the 3 best EC (record wise) teams, 2 good WC teams, and the world champions. It's quite easy for ATL to get lost in the mix. And we all know how good ATL is at home, but the perception of NBA players is similar to ours. It's just ATL, nobody cares if we beat them and that's why ATL has beaten DEN, UTA, CLE, DAL and PHO among others at home. Add all that to the fact the Hawks can go 4-0 on this homestand and have been getting pretty good crowds as of late and I really like it.
 
Guess I am the only one that thinks the Cavs go down tonight. They already opened them as 2 pt dogs to HotLanta...Hou is just 3 pt betters then ATL suddenly?? With or w/o TMac..
 
Um, nobody wants to put money on the Wolves @ home? Maybe I'm crazy, but that one jumped off the page at me.
 
SportsNut said:
Guess I am the only one that thinks the Cavs go down tonight. They already opened them as 2 pt dogs to HotLanta...Hou is just 3 pt betters then ATL suddenly?? With or w/o TMac..
Click to expand...

Dogs are 32-16 ATS in Houston's games this season. Any result (side/total) hitting north of 66% for any particular team more than halfway through the season one would suspect of being subject to some line adjustments.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Dogs are 32-16 ATS in Houston's games this season. Any result (side/total) hitting north of 66% for any particular team more than halfway through the season one would suspect of being subject to some line adjustments.
Click to expand...

I always think that depends on whether or not the trend is realized . meaning is there a betting pattern reflecting it. If not why adjust? As long as the books are not losing on a particular side I would not expect any adjustment. So if the betting public starts picking up on it then we will see an adjustment otherwise it would remain IMO..
 
thats good in theory, but I've seen it across the board for totals and ATS results that (a greater semblence of) balance always shows up. I don't buy in every instance it's due to whatever particular dominant trend being realized.

-------------------
As an example, I'll take Nawlins from last season:

started out U/O 25-18-1; thats only 56.8% to Unders, hardly so skewed as to instigate a realisation by "the public". Results were spaced out enough that no extended duration of under results (4 in a row was the most, and that happened just twice) was there to condition anyone into the fact here was a team to play unders blind with and come away winning 56.8% of the time.

finished U/O 13-25, thats 65.7% Overs: overall balance = U/O 38-43-1, only 52.4% to the dominant total.
----------------------------

As another, different type of example, I'll take Detroit ATS at home from last season:

started out 4-13 ATS (lost 76.4% of the time laying points): heavily in favour of the visiting side, but Detroit was a very public team off a finals appearance, so their maintaining large lines to sustain such a run of results is hardly unexpected. Just because they had such a bad record over a small grouping of games, isn't evidence enough to suggest that record was calamitous enough to get everybody to then jump ship laying points with them at home. public teams don't cease to be public teams over just 17 games, esp. as their road form at the same time was good enough (11-9 ATS) as to keep people believing they could transfer that road form into their home games.

finished 7-13-4 ATS (lost 54.1% of the time laying points): While they hardly improved out of sight, a significant correction towards balance came to their home results: previously only 4 wins to their 1st 13 losses, now 7 wins and 4 pushes to their next 13 losses.
-----------------------------

In either instance above, the significant balance that arrived on the scene given the attendant the factors in play - from the 1st instance, the percentages werent strong enough one way to begin with to cue any significant realisation/ & the 2nd instance, such a small amount of games/results unlikely being enough to put people off a team with such a large public name (esp. with opposite venue results not nearly matching those home results for negativity) - make the notion that occuring realisations were responsible, underpinning the reasons for the adjustments which resulted in greater balance of results occuring, as being very unlikely.

Your assertion, directly or indirectly, is such changes only come after realisation. Mine is that's obviously true in some to many instances, but can't explain all such changes, because my obervation is a greater semblence of balance always shows up, and I don't buy every bias is always picked up/realised everytime (even if its to the degree of a lousy 56.8%).
Unless someone has access to exact % figures of where people were betting before and after such changes in results, noone can speak to which take is more accurate.
 
Last edited:
Marlo Stanfield said:
Picks

You still rolling with Atl. after what Cleveland did in Houston tonight..
Click to expand...


Ya I played it when it opened. Would have liked to seen a Cavs win tonight, but I'll take a contest that had the starters out there until there was 1:30 left. CLE is SO thin without Pavlovic and Varejao that a B2B has got to be a bit brutal. Look at the box score tonight. Without LB they might be worse than the Heat. They have zero pieces around him.

Also played the Spurs at the open. Think it's a great time to jump on the Spurs bandwagon. They were 5-16 ATS L21 before their recent 3 game ATS winning streak. With their next three games @BOS, @TOR, @CLE this game is an absolute must win for the Spurs. I'll probably add the Spurs ML into the other few bets I make for Friday as a juice reducer. For the long run I'm expecting the Spurs do go at worst 9-6 ATS over their next 15 or so. Definitely a team to watch coming out of the ASG.
 
We are on the same page BC. Over the years have definetly leaned alot from you and your methods. I think I can rationalize why all trends occur and prefer to take everything on a game by game , day to day process. Which is why it can take me forever to cap a card.

I think something always changes for "trends" to reverse course its just most people dont look close enough or understand why they occur.

It just takes 2 long to explain every point. I was talking about this yesterday with the Pacers trend..opposite result of prior home game when the travel.

I can tell you right off the top of my head that NO totals probably trended UNDER for so long because of the long list of injuries the had. They played shorthanded forever and where struggling to get 80 points a night. Then as the players get healthy they cant adjust the numbers quick enough to compensate for 15 pts more per game.....

I think if you sit back and ask yourself why a trend is occurring most not all times you can come up with a rationalize explanation.

Why is the dog hitting in Houston games? Injuries could be one part for Hou making them a less trusting favorite , over enthusastic expectations not tempered to having a new coach , struggles on offense that make points a premium in there games...

Today they got a team who appeared to be playing real well which was an misperception IMO somewhat. That keep the line under what it should have been. There was no way it should have opened lower then -6 and probably 7 or 7.5 knowing Gooden was out in addition to Varaejo. Just seeing them open ATL -2 tmrw acknowledged this number was short...

We all have our methods I love the regression to the means analysis you developed. If the reverse in the Houston "dog theory" occurs its because they have been medicore for so long they finally have played some consistent ball of late...

Just my take...chat tmrw !
 
Does that Orlando line say that Kobe's hand is still hurting and Gasol is still adjusting?

They haven't had much practice with their new unit yet.
 
AtlHawks said:
Does that Orlando line say that Kobe's hand is still hurting and Gasol is still adjusting?

They haven't had much practice with their new unit yet.
Click to expand...

nah..I think I have figured out that Orl is 3 points weaker then Det. So anytime you see an Orl number it should be 3 pt shorter then the number vs Det. Obviously I am talking about recent common opponents. Well Det was -6 which was abit to fat...so -1.5 makes sense to me...( slight adjustment plus subtracting 3 points)...not an exact science but helps getting a feel for what to expect
 
I know the Kings are strong at home, but stay away from the Kings tomorrow if Brad Miller doesn't play. He missed the last game against the lowly Sonics and the Sonics rolled. Miller is the heart and soul of that team.
 
I'm thinking Detroit rolls 2marrow with revenge on Portland. Just another reality check on Portland. If they lose this ATS it will tie their longest 8 game losing streak ATS this season. Seems that lately when Detroit has revenge on a team lately at home they cover the spread.
 
Orlando looks to be in a good spot, but after the way the Lakers lost the the Hawks the other night, I'm a little scared of an angry Lakers team. I'm leaning towards the UNDER 213.5 in the Lakers/Magic game
 
Over the last 3 seasons Phoenix is 7-5 to Under, avg 206.6 pts, following a game that totaled 250+ points.

when that next game was at home, 5-0 to Under, avg 202.0 pts
when that next game was on the road, 5-2 to Over, avg 210.0 pts


Seattle has played PHX twice this season for 2 Under results (205 & 200 pt totals).

In a SU loss that followed a SU win this season, Seattle is 6-1 to Under, avg 188.7 pts. The only Over result was a home game. Seattle enters this game off a SU win.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Over the last 3 seasons Phoenix is 7-5 to Under, avg 206.6 pts, following a game that totaled 250+ points.

when that next game was at home, 5-0 to Under, avg 202.0 pts
when that next game was on the road, 5-2 to Over, avg 210.0 pts


Seattle has played PHX twice this season for 2 Under results (205 & 200 pt totals).

In a SU loss that followed a SU win this season, Seattle is 6-1 to Under, avg 188.7 pts. The only Over result was a home game. Seattle enters this game off a SU win.
Click to expand...

BC thanks for the info. this seems to Point to an Under play in Sea. Do you have a play ?
 
Minny is worth a look tonight, missed the good number...but 5.5 might have some value
 
JPicks said:
Also played the Spurs at the open. Think it's a great time to jump on the Spurs bandwagon. They were 5-16 ATS L21 before their recent 3 game ATS winning streak. With their next three games @BOS, @TOR, @CLE this game is an absolute must win for the Spurs. I'll probably add the Spurs ML into the other few bets I make for Friday as a juice reducer. For the long run I'm expecting the Spurs do go at worst 9-6 ATS over their next 15 or so. Definitely a team to watch coming out of the ASG.
Click to expand...

Agreed. I haven't had much time to watch NBA in depth lately but I've managed to check out Spurs games rather frequently. I sense they're playing with their known flare again, more hustle, more focused, but it's no wonder considering they had that poor period, preceded by injuries, it showed on the court.

I think they win this one big, also I can see them beating Cleveland and Boston, paradoxically I see them dropping the one in Toronto.
 
BetCrimes1984 said:
Over the last 3 seasons Phoenix is 7-5 to Under, avg 206.6 pts, following a game that totaled 250+ points.

when that next game was at home, 5-0 to Under, avg 202.0 pts
when that next game was on the road, 5-2 to Over, avg 210.0 pts


Seattle has played PHX twice this season for 2 Under results (205 & 200 pt totals).

In a SU loss that followed a SU win this season, Seattle is 6-1 to Under, avg 188.7 pts. The only Over result was a home game. Seattle enters this game off a SU win.
Click to expand...

that looks like a play to me.

good numbers. Just don't know what to expect with Shaq out there.
 
reNew Orleans said:
im liking the raptors, but thats just me
Click to expand...

Raptors still haven't won (SU) a home game this year where they failed to cover ATS.

As favorites at home they are 12-5 SU and 12-5 ATS.

They started the season going 2-3 SU and ATS as favorites since then they are 10-2 with an average margin of victory being 17.8 points. Of those 10 victories only two were less than 11 points.

Their last 4 home covers were by 39, 31, 11, and 25 points.

Considering the Clippers are playing their 5th game in 7 days, play tomorrow again, are shorthanded without Cassell while the Raptors are playing their first after three days off (7-3 ATS 2+ days of rest) and have tomorrow off. It just doesn't seem fair in all honesty.

The Raptors have a very large potential to get another 25+ point victory in this one. From a coaching standpoint even if the Raps are up 20 heading into the 4th you'd think you'd want to get your starters some minutes of real game action regardless of the score ecspecially considering the ASG is coming up and the Raptors will be off for a full week.
 
Is Cle really this banged up? King James brusied thumb , Gibson bad hammy very doubtful , Gooden DNP last night?? Plus the losses of varaejo and Sahsa. With Marshall just returning from injury and Z playing alot of minutes yesterday??

Seems like ATL and Under?
 
SportsNut said:
Actually 5th in 8 days with Tmrw being 6th in 9...
Click to expand...

Details, details. :)


Played the Hawks at -2. LB may be the best basketball player on the planet (or not) but him and 4 junior high players aren't getting it done on a B2B against an underated ATL home squad.
 
Played ATL -3 -120 myself.

I was about to pull the trigger on Tor thinking it was 5 in 7 thats why I posted it when I realized it wasnt. Think going to Philly might be the real tough spot for them. Regardless hopefully Tor covers the 10...
 
Kinda got ditracted but already kicking myself for not backing Port +11.5 !!! Thats fucking ridiculous and no better spot then missing a superstar especially with Port's depth. Also pissed I didnt bute on the Minny under somehow they started playing D at home...game will be in teh 80s IMO...
 
Could be wrong just a guess but appears they are BEGGING for Toronto money at Halftime with -2.5 or -3...expected at least -3.5...who knows
 
Wow !!! Did I fall asleep at the wheel tonight. DDidnt pay attention tonight and missed great halftime opportunities with SA , Under @ ATL , Portland , etc....

No late action just 3 props @ Denver...
 
and the LAC won SU!! Knew they wanted Tor money at half....big woulda , coulda, shoulda evening for me!!
 
yea i missed out on SA and portland sportsnut. please post any 2h for remainder of night! i need it!
 
Will do. Though everytime I have one of these type nites when I start paying attention I dont get anhything good to bite on. I lost Orl and ATL while pushing over NJN. Unfortunately just about everything else I thought won...very frustrating..have UND 218.5 @ Pho but played Over 106.5 at half to basically middle most of it...

GL bro...and have the Dons in CBB +20 of course I thought about the Over 139 and passed...
 
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