Friday Discussion/Thoughts

[BetCrimes1984]

<TABLE cellSpacing=2 cellPadding=2 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=blk-title colSpan=7>MLB Baseball - Fri 8/24</TD></TR><TR class=wht-title bgColor=#16177c><TD colSpan=3>Game</TD><TD noWrap>Run Line</TD><TD noWrap>Money Line</TD><TD noWrap>Total Runs</TD><TD>More </TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>951</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Diego Padres
G. Maddux
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -191 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+103 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 10 -116 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>952</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Philadelphia Phillies
J. Moyer
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +178 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-111 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 10 +106 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>953</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Florida Marlins
D. Willis
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -165 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+122 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9.5 -116 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>954</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cincinnati Reds
A. Harang
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +155 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-130 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9.5 +106 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>955</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Los Angeles Dodgers
B. Penny
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -215 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 8 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>956</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Mets
OL. Perez
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +195 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-113 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 8 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>957</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Pittsburgh Pirates
I. Snell
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -209 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9 -126 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>05:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>958</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Houston Astros
M. Albers
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +189 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9 +116 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>959</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Atlanta Braves
J. Smoltz
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-133 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9 +113 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>960</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>St Louis Cardinals
K. Wells
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -135 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9 -123 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>961</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Washington Nationals
S. Hill
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -150 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+137 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9.5 +100 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>06:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>962</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Colorado Rockies
J. Francis
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-145 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9.5 -110 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>963</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Chicago Cubs
S. Marshall
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -211 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-102 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9.5 +111 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>06:40 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>964</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Arizona D-Backs
M. Owings
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +191 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9.5 -121 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>965</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Milwaukee Brewers
C. Vargas
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -191 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+106 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 8.5 -121 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>07:15 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>966</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>San Francisco Giants
N. Lowry
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +178 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-114 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 8.5 +111 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>967</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Minnesota Twins
JO. Santana
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-176 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 7.5 +103 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>968</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Baltimore Orioles
J. Guthrie
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+168 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 7.5 -113 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>969</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>New York Yankees
R. Clemens
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +105 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-140 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 10 -108 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>970</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Detroit Tigers
A. Miller
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -115 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+132 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 10 -102 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>971</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Oakland Athletics
L. Dinardo
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -174 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+120 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9 -101 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>04:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>972</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Tampa Bay Devil Rays
J. Shields
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +164 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-128 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9 -109 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>973</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Cleveland Indians
C.C. Sabathia
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 -101 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-166 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 8 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>05:10 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>974</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Kansas City Royals
Z. Greinke
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -109 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+158 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 8 -105 </TD><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>977</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Seattle Mariners
F. Hernandez
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +127 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-125 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 9.5 -108 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#eeeeee><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>05:35 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>978</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Texas Rangers
K. Millwood
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -137 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+117 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 9.5 -102 </TD><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Fri 8/24</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>979</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>Toronto Blue Jays
R. Halladay
</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+1.5 -215 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>+100 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>OVER 8 -105 <TD vAlign=center align=middle rowSpan=2></TD></TR><TR bgColor=#d0d0d0><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>07:05 PM</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>980</TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>LAA Angels
JER. Weaver
<TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-1.5 +195 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>-108 </TD><TD class=main_body_blk noWrap>UNDER 8 -105 </TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE borderColor=#cccccc cellSpacing=1 width="100%"><TBODY><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>American League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>2:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Josh Beckett
Jon Garland
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Minnesota at Baltimore
Home Plate Umpire: Guccione, Chris
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Johan Santana
Jeremy Guthrie
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>NY Yankees at Detroit
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Roger Clemens
Andrew Miller
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Oakland at Tampa Bay
Home Plate Umpire: Bell, Wally
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Lenny DiNardo
James Shields
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Boston at Chi. White Sox
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Curt Schilling
John Danks
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Cleveland at Kansas City
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>C.C. Sabathia
Zack Greinke
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:35 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Seattle at Texas
Home Plate Umpire: Tschida, Tim
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Felix Hernandez
Kevin Millwood
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Toronto at LA Angels
Home Plate Umpire: Gibson, Greg
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Roy Halladay
Jered Weaver
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb colSpan=3>National League </TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Time</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Game</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans bgColor=#ffdccb>Starters</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>San Diego at Philadelphia
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Greg Maddux
Kyle Lohse
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Florida at Cincinnati
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Dontrelle Willis
Aaron Harang
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>7:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>LA Dodgers at NY Mets
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Brad Penny
Oliver Perez
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Pittsburgh at Houston
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Ian Snell
Matthew Kip Albers
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>8:10 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Atlanta at St. Louis
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>John Smoltz
Kip Wells
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:05 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Washington at Colorado
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Shawn Hill
Jeff Francis
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>9:40 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Chi. Cubs at Arizona
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Sean Marshall
Micah Owings
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR><TR><TD class=small-copy-sans>10:15 PM ET </TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Milwaukee at San Francisco
Home Plate Umpire: N/A
</TD><TD class=small-copy-sans>Claudio Vargas
Noah Lowry
Bullpen Availability
</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

 

[BetCrimes1984]

All stats based on opening lines.

Toronto is U/O 14-0-2 in their last 16 road games. The various relevant team stats pertaining to this road total run are as follows...


- they are 0-5 SU off winning their previous game (and are 1-14 SU in their last 15 road games off a road win).

- they average 2.56 team runs/game

- they have not scored in any 9th inning

- they have not scored beyond the 6th inning in the last 6 games

- they have scored 1 run or less by the end of the 5th inning in 8 of these 16 games.

- they have not scored beyond the 5th inning in 8 of these 16 games

- they've scored 65.8% of their total runs by the end of the 5th inning, and 34.2% of their total runs from the 6th inning onwards.

- they have scored in more than 2 different innings in only 3 of the 16 games, and then it was in 3 different innings - not once have they scored in 4 or more different innings in any game (can anyone spell p-a-t-h-e-t-i-c ?)

- they have scored more than 1 run in any single inning on just 10 occasions (out of 144 innings, thats just 6.94% of the time), and have scored more than 2 runs in any single inning on just 4 occasions (2.77% of the time), with 4 runs (once) being their greatest output in any single inning.

 

[Unicorn]

Nats & Cards.

I haven't bet on anything for the last week or so but just couldn't pass on those two.


First - St.Louis (Wells) @ 2.25

Wells is 2-0, 2.37 ERA (19.0 IP) over his last 3 starts
-in his career vs ATL, he's 1-2, 2.43 ERA

Smoltz is 1-0, 3.10 ERA (20.1 IP) over his last 3 starts
-in his career vs STL, he's only 10-11, 4.20 ERA

Cards vs Smoltz:

Edmonds .417 BA 1 double 1 HR (12 AB)
Encarnacion .294 BA 1 double 1 HR (17 AB)
Pujols .467 BA 1 double 3 HR's (15 AB)
Rolen .258 BA 2 doubles 2 HR's (31 AB)


So the way I see it - Cards have been actually winning games for Wells lately, while he's been on fire at the same time. Smoltz has been pretty much the same (read: great) all season but the Bravos aren't winning the games their ace started lately.


59.3% public on ATL (taken from Wagerline this morning) - I've always enjoyed fading the public in MLB. Especially on FRIDAYS


Second - Washington (Hill) @ 2.37

Hill is 1-0, 1.00 ERA (18.0 IP) over his last 3 starts
-this is his first career start vs COL

Francis is 1-1, 8.16 ERA (14.1 IP) over his last 3 starts
-in his career vs WAS, he's 1-0, 6.75 ERA

The Rockies have cooled off after really nice run they had some time ago (they're only 3-7 over their last 10 games) along with Francis who isn't pitching so great like before. Washington has been playing little better lately (4-6 over their last 10) but Hill has been HOT. In addition, Nats bats have been much more dangerous vs LHP the whole season. We'll see.

61.1% public on COL (this has been taken from Wagerline this morning, too)


Both of these picks qualify as a high-stake bets in my book. Cca 10 Units each. BOL everyone!

 

[Unicorn]

BC1984 - I actually see this game in Anaheim as a 3-2 type of game. Halladay may shut down the Angels for 7-8 innings and Weaver may be due for a quality start. We'll see.

BOL man!

 

[BetCrimes1984]

Unicorn - I've no intention of taking the Under in LA. And I'd be wary of an underdone Kip Wells. BOL friday:cheers:

 

[DopeSmokingMORON]

good stuff bc, like nats on fri

 

[MusicCityGambler]

I love the Nats and the Cards. The Braves are demoralized while the Cardinals have seomething to play for at home.

 

[JumpOnBoard]

I don't know about demoralized...the Reds just hit the shit out of the ball..

ATL scored a shitton of runs in the four game set at the GAB.

 

[TeamPlayer]

Also, Puljols is battling a long list of injuries. Despite a successful week by him, those injuries catch up to you. The man can barely jog from base to base

 

[tuck321]

I am fairly sure I have bet the Nationals more than most and will at least check tonights umpire but what is the big attraction tonight. They got swept by the Mets. Then facing a team without starting pitchers they Beat Jennings, beat Wandy a plus, lost to Woody and beat a totally phoney child playing starter. In that game they started with a big lead and managed to win by 1. Ther pen is much weaker than yesterday. Their starters has not pitched in Colorado. They are facing a quality starter who is 15-5 last 20 at home and has won 7 straight at home. What should the number be in ths game?

 

[tuck321]

Colorado has lost 2 straight games at home where their starting pitcher has collapsed. Do you really see that happening tonight.

 

[tuck321]

Anyone even look at Pitt or KC. This does not seem strange to anyone?

 

[tee*dub]

Lots of Live dogs at home.. Cards will be on my radar for sure.. Smoltz is a public pitcher so I will likely let it ride up.:smiley_acbe:

 

[JumpOnBoard]

Fielder to serve suspension tonight and tomorrow

By Tom Haudricourt

Friday, Aug 24 2007, 11:30 AM

San Francisco - First baseman Prince Fielder had his pending suspension reduced from three games to two, and will serve them tonight and tomorrow night when the Brewers play the San Francisco Giants.
Club media relations director Mike Vassallo said Fielder's appeal of the suspension was not heard in a face-to-face meeting with anybody from MLB. Thus, it was either done over the telephone or MLB just called and made the offer to reduce the suspension by a game. I'll check into that and relay the information later.
Fielder was suspended after a heated run-in with home plate umpire Wally Bell on Aug. 12 in Houston. Fielder disputed a called third strike, was ejected from the game and then got in the face of Bell for several moments, with manager Ned Yost stepping between them.
Fielder then appealed the suspension and continued playing until the ruling today.
The interesting question is who will play first base tonight and tomorrow? Tony Graffanino had served as an occasional back-up -- Fielder hardly ever sits out -- but he's out with a knee injury.
Utility player Joe Dillon, who has played all over the field in the minors, is the likely replacement.